Weekly Bets Thread

[Soggust]

I made some tokens last night in UFC so I'm ready to get hurt again today. 

[braylon]

6 hours ago, N4L said:

I haven't been watching enough film this year to justify posting my picks here. But I'm baaaaaack 

Over corderrell Paterson 7.5 rec yards - he played WR for 10 years and Atl moved him to RB last year. He was RB1, got hurt, and they have three legit RBs behind him who ran well when he was out. Pitts gets hurt two weeks ago and they basically moved cpat back to slot WR. Pittsburgh suuuucks at covering the slot. 7.5 yards is dummy low. Smash. Playing it alt line up to 38. 

Garrett Wilson over ~63 rec yards. Minnesota has a bad secondary and they give up a ton through the air. Mike white slangs the rock. Wilson is the clear alpha there. He's a big play waiting to happen at all times. 

Keenan Allen over 67 rec yards - he's back. He's healthy. Herbert is healthy. Raiders don't have anyone who can cover him. The number is 10 yards too low. He should have 10 targets 

David Montgomery over 67 rush yards. CHI OL is legit good at run blocking. GB is soft. They can't stop the run for ****. Chicago will out muscle them up front. I think GB will try and focus on fields running. Monty should have 20+ carries. 

AJ brown over 77 rec yards - Philly is about to play their hardest game of the year. Titans #1 rush D by a mile. You can't run on them. Philly will have to pass and when they are feeling the heat, they lean on AJB hard. Titans pass D is below average partly because they make every team throw the ball since no one can run on them. AJB will get force fed the ball. 

Johnathan Taylor over 74 rush yards - Dallas D can be had on the ground. Indy knows they won't be able to pass and will stick to the run game no matter what. Jeff Saturday has their OL playing well and they are running the ball better since he took over. 

Over 43 rec yards for George kittle. Miami has been bad against TEs partly because they are bad over the middle. That's where Jimmy feasts, and George should be utilized in this role with deebo out. He is a Yac machine obviously and could have this with 3-4 targets. Niners will be coming into the game with the mindset they have to score. That matters and will absolutely help here. 

Over 69 rec yards Amon Ra - ever since hockenson has been traded, he's had the middle of the field to himself. He's been on a tear the last three games. Target hog in a high scoring game. 

Is CPat really getting slot looks right now? If so that’s a SMASH bet..

[Broncofan]

BTW, the Brandon Johnson line is now +3500.  Oh well, lol.   He's still splitting their 3rd WR work in EZ with Hinton IMO, big body type - so I'm going to add 0.5U for 1U total at +2300 functionally (YOLO & FOMO lol).

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, N4L said:

I haven't been watching enough film this year to justify posting my picks here. But I'm baaaaaack 

Over corderrell Paterson 7.5 rec yards - he played WR for 10 years and Atl moved him to RB last year. He was RB1, got hurt, and they have three legit RBs behind him who ran well when he was out. Pitts gets hurt two weeks ago and they basically moved cpat back to slot WR. Pittsburgh suuuucks at covering the slot. 7.5 yards is dummy low. Smash. Playing it alt line up to 38. 

Garrett Wilson over ~63 rec yards. Minnesota has a bad secondary and they give up a ton through the air. Mike white slangs the rock. Wilson is the clear alpha there. He's a big play waiting to happen at all times. 

Keenan Allen over 67 rec yards - he's back. He's healthy. Herbert is healthy. Raiders don't have anyone who can cover him. The number is 10 yards too low. He should have 10 targets 

David Montgomery over 67 rush yards. CHI OL is legit good at run blocking. GB is soft. They can't stop the run for ****. Chicago will out muscle them up front. I think GB will try and focus on fields running. Monty should have 20+ carries. 

AJ brown over 77 rec yards - Philly is about to play their hardest game of the year. Titans #1 rush D by a mile. You can't run on them. Philly will have to pass and when they are feeling the heat, they lean on AJB hard. Titans pass D is below average partly because they make every team throw the ball since no one can run on them. AJB will get force fed the ball. 

Johnathan Taylor over 74 rush yards - Dallas D can be had on the ground. Indy knows they won't be able to pass and will stick to the run game no matter what. Jeff Saturday has their OL playing well and they are running the ball better since he took over. 

Over 43 rec yards for George kittle. Miami has been bad against TEs partly because they are bad over the middle. That's where Jimmy feasts, and George should be utilized in this role with deebo out. He is a Yac machine obviously and could have this with 3-4 targets. Niners will be coming into the game with the mindset they have to score. That matters and will absolutely help here. 

Over 69 rec yards Amon Ra - ever since hockenson has been traded, he's had the middle of the field to himself. He's been on a tear the last three games. Target hog in a high scoring game. 

Tailing the C-Patt o8.5 Rec yds (already up on FD) play for 2U with Olmide Zaccheus O28.5 yards for ATL & Kittle as well.  If Deebo  is inactive or the early slate goes well I’ll consider adding the FD 60/80/100 alt lines too.   Good to have you back in play! 

Edited December 4, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Deebo will play.. could be mostly as a decoy though 

[thebestever6]

Man I bet the Treylon Burks overs he's out for game I can't win.

[adamq]

When Engram scored I put it all in Mahomes +500.. rolling over 20% of that on kelce live +480

I know they've had him clamped but yolo and all. Don't see that high a number next to kelces name often, even with just 15 left to play

Edited December 4, 2022 by adamq

[Broncofan]

Before I do my Sunday tally (and YAY my calls all were solid....when guys didn't get hurt <OMG Kenneth Walker 2/36 after 2 drives, same thing with Aaron Jones>).      I'll do the summary, but wanted to make sure I got my other 2 TD plays in:

Kylen Granson +1700 0.5U & Jelani Woods +800 FD 0.5U each - with both TE's playing, splitting my 1U play both ways. 

Jason Ferguson +1200 0.5U & Peyton Hendershot +1500 0.5U each - waited until now, and sure enough, the odds boosted.  

 

Going to learn from my MNF/TNF struggles and not force the issue with player props here, been a nice bounceback for my original plays (Aaron Jones injury had me back off going hard in the afternoon, which saved me bigtime on Kittle, sad to see both CPatt and Zaccheus fizzle out).

Edited December 5, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

are Colts next level against wrs? Ceedee Lamb at 68.5 seems about ten yards lower than what you'd think.

[Broncofan]

9 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

are Colts next level against wrs? Ceedee Lamb at 68.5 seems about ten yards lower than what you'd think.

They're not, but with Shaq Leonard out, they're also beatable on the ground.   68.5 is about right, I had Lamb for about 75, mainly because DAL D could absolutely stifle the IND O.  

Keep in mind both teams will want to run the ball - which is why I'm going to "only" invest in 2U on the 4 longshot TD props.

[Broncofan]

On 12/2/2022 at 5:53 PM, Broncofan said:

WEEK 13 SUNDAY / MONDAY

OK so lots of games with injury/personnel Q's, but I have 4 ATS/ML plays that are available I'm on, 4 player props I'm going to still back for 3.5U, and a few more I'm on the lookout for, and 5-6 longshot TD props that provided insane value.

ATS/ML

EARLY

NYJ +3 @ MIN - Teams that can't cover Justin Jefferson get burned.  The teams that have been able to both generate pressure, and limit Jefferson, have had success.   That's NYJ in a nutshell - and their O is now balanced and can exploit MIN's secondary without Zach Wilson at QB.   I'm likely going to take the ML at +140 too, but for capping, I'm taking the points, given the cold streak lol.

TEN +5 (now +4.5) @ PHI  - if Davis wasn't back from IR, I'd probably take the ML - but I'm still good with 5 points here.   TEN just matches up well with good teams, and finds ways to hang around.    Davis does influence my player prop choices, though, but not enough to back off TEN as an ATS dog.


LATE

CIN +3 vs. KC (now -2.5) - game of the week, among a bunch of great ones.   I just think this is a 3-pt or less game, so give me the CIN points.    

SNF/MNF

NO +3.5 @ TAM - I know, TAM crushed them earlier this year.    But the TAM D and OL are even more hurt, and Lattimore returns along with other key guys for NO.  I wish Winston was playing, I actually trust him more than Dalton, but I think NO's tough personnel matchup for TAM comes home to roost again on MNF.   If Sunday goes well, will consider the ML. 

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Garrett Wilson O60.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +180 & 100+ rec yds +360 0.5U FD - put a competent QB, Wilson is an alpha WR.   Way too low against MIN's secondary.   My #3 high confidence play. 

Christian Kirk O62.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +180 & 100+ rec yds +360 0.5U FD - DET is terrible against the slot receiver.  This is a big bounce-back spot after Zay Jones took the limelight last week.   Same FD odds given the number is higher for Wilson on FD and matches Kirk's main line.  My #2 high confidence play. 

Aaron Jones O57.5 rush yds 2U DK, 80+ rush yds +240 & 100+ rush yds +520 0.5U FD - FD props aren't out, but DK's 57.5 rush yard prop is so insanely low.  We know A-Rod is going to be protected, and CHI's run D now doesn’t have Roquan Smith or Eddie Jackson.  My #1 high confidence play   

Cole Kmet o27.5 yds on DK 2U, No Alt lines yet on FD - with no Devondre Campbell and awful safety play the Pack D Uber vulnerable to Kmet.  If the alt lines come out I’ll take the shot on 50/70 for sure.    My #4 high confidence play. 

Gus Edwards o55.5 rush yds on DK 2U.  80+ / 100+ +240 / +520 on FD for 1.5U more - DEN run D awful and I suspect Lamar runs less with hip.  My #5 high confidence plays.

Daniel Jones O32.5 rush yds 2U DK  - WAS's run D is solid....but they do allow QB rush opps.    If Chase Young returns, I'll probably avoid the alt lines for now - if he doesn't play, then I'll be tempted. 

Jordan Davis returning for PHI puts a dampener on my Derrick Henry enthusiasm.    And while I was hoping to get Dameon Pierce vs. CLE, they set a line at 73.5 which honestly, doesn't provide a lot of extra value, and with their awful QB situation and no Brandin Cooks, well, I think it better to avoid.

LATE

Kenneth Walker III O70.5 rush yds 2U DK, 90+ rush yds +180 & 110+ rush yds +360 0.5U FD - no Aaron Donald, no one on O - spells a SEA lead, and a LOT of Walker.    His slump ends this week IMO.

Keenan Allen o64.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ Rec yds +200 & 100+ Rec yds 0.5U FD - he had 4/66 in week 1 in the first Q.  Injury is the only risk here.  

SNF/MNF

None out that stand out   

 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Khadarel Hodge +1300 FD 0.5U -  PIT can be beat, and ATL figures to be trailing.   Gotta take a shot at these odds

MyCole Pruitt +900 FD - Since he's the RZ TE, gotta take a 1U shot here.   

Pharoah Brown +1300 (now +500) FD - When I saw these odds yesterday, my eyes popped - full 1U play.  I wish I had taken the 2 separate 1U plays - but I'm sticking this one out, with Njoku out, he's getting as many looks as Harrison Bryant (who's +150 lol).

Richie James +500 / +6000 (0.8U/0.2U) FD - the #2 target for WR, and a guy they design rub routes in the RZ / EZ packages for.   At +500/+6000, gotta take this shot.

Brandon Johnson +1100 FD 0.5U - def gets RZ snaps as the other big body with Sutton   

LATE

Jody Fortson +900 FD - I don't understand it, but I won't question it.   Going to the Fortson well as long as he gets RZ snaps and looks (checks both boxes).

 

SNF/MNF

Jake Ferguson +1300 FD 0.5U,  Peyton Hendershot +1200 FD 0.5U - you know the drill, DAL loves 12 formation and even 13 formation in the RZ.  

Cade Otton +700 TD 0.5U FD - still getting more looks, Ko Kieft was a 12 formation play, I'll take the more volume guy at those odds.

With news that Juwan Johnson is iffy, I was disappointed to see that Adam Trautman is also +400 - instead, I'll probably go Marquez Callaway +900 FD 0.5U instead - but I'm tempted to wait as the prime time odds for longshots oftens gets even longer.

 

That's enough for, hoping Sunday can get us back on track after a rough MNF/TNF.   Given the cold streak if you’re going to tail - don’t blame you if it’s main props only lol.   BOL! 

 

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Tailing the C-Patt o8.5 Rec yds (already up on FD) play for 2U with Olmide Zaccheus O28.5 yards for ATL & Kittle as well.  If Deebo  is inactive or the early slate goes well I’ll consider adding the FD 60/80/100 alt lines too.   Good to have you back in play! 

Well, I don't regret the extra plays (8.5 yards...come on ATL), but the last second decisions which I said I'd avoid....I didn't.  My call, cost me -3U on C-Patt 2U & Zaccheus as well.   At least I didn't go the extra 1.5U on Kittle given the bad luck I had with Aaron Jones & Gus Edwards gamescript changing completely with Lamar hurt early.

Still, it was a good day for player props, and I did find the one longshot TD, with 5 more 0.5U plays for SNF/MNF alive, and guaranteed profit there....

ATS/ML - 2-2, +0.4U, NO +3.5 pending - TEN was a bad call, but NYJ was horrible luck.  Still, that's the way it goes.   But betting BOTH CIN +3.5 and CIN +140 keeps me clean here, and still waiting on NO +3.5.    That creates a +1.4U week.

PLAYER PROPS - 6-3 original plays, +8.2U - really sucks that Aaron Jones got hurt, because AJ Dillon clearly smashed Jones & his prop combined.    And then Kenneth Walker had 2 rushes for 36 yards then got hurt - and SEA RB's smashed the 3 alt lines combined.   And of course, Gus Edwards got gamescripted with Lamar's injury.  Those were the 3L's - other than Keenan Allen starting with a 0 in the 1H and coming on like gangbusters, all the other plays hit in the 1H or by 3Q for the main prop, and blasted by the alt lines easily (except Allen, who needed every minute to get past the main / 2nd alt line).   Would have been even higher without the 4U I took last second - but that's gambling, too (and my call all the way).  With the ugliness of the -7U, it's nice to put a +1.2U week total here.

LONGSHOT TD PROPS -  unlucky with Hodge dropping a TD pass in his hands, and James / Fortson / Johnson were all out there in the RZ....but nothing as close as the week before.   Still, with MyCole Pruitt hitting at +900, it's a tidy +5.0U profit (+3.5U for week with TNF's 0-for-2).

I've still got 2U in play for the 4 backup TE TD props for SNF, and I'll got Cade Otton on TAM & Marquez Callaway for 1U total on MNF - but at least I'm guaranteeing TD profit, and if any of the 6 guys left hit, it's another great TD week.   The 13.6U profit also gets me in the black for Week 13 after that ugly -7.5U showing on TNF, for +6.1U.  Let's finish strong with SNF/MNF!

_________________________________________

WEEK 13 TO SNF

ATS/ ML & RACE

30-24-2 ATS, 10-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +3.0U. (+1.4U Week 13 to MNF, 2-2 ATS, 1-0 ML). 

PLAYER PROPS

90-91,  BALANCE  +43.1U (+1.2U WEEK 13 to MNF <-7U on TNF, +8.2U Sunday Day Slate> - Now 48-44 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones )

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-72, BALANCE +110.6U  (+3.5U Week 13 to SNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700)
 

TOTAL:  +157.3U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 to SNF - +6.1U (-7.5U TNF, +13.6U Sunday day slate <whew>).

Edited December 5, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For MNF I have 5 plays:  

ATS / ML

NO +3.5 or NO +160 - I’m taking both.   Just a case of bad matchups and TAm OL being decimated hurting TB12 again.  Don’t trust the race enough as we may not see teams get past 20 pts.      

 

PLAYER PROPS

Chris Olave o59.5 Rec yds 2U / 80+ rec yds +200 / 100+ rec yds 0.5U - I won’t lie if Jameis was starting I’d go with the 3.5U play.   But I just can’t trust Dalton enough to do anything but the main prop at 2U.  
 

Chris Godwin o67.5 Rec yds - Same issue of trust except it’s the OL.   

 

TD PROPS

Marquez Callaway +1000 / +10000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) DK  - with Juwan Johnson out I think we’ll see more Callaway in the RZ as a target not necessarily more Trautman (he blocks a lot)   

Cade Otton +700 FD  - Brate is back but Otton gets his share of RZ snaps and TB12 still looks his way.      

 

That’s it for now.  BOL!

Edited December 6, 2022 by Broncofan

[N4L]

22 hours ago, N4L said:

I haven't been watching enough film this year to justify posting my picks here. But I'm baaaaaack 

Over corderrell Paterson 7.5 rec yards - he played WR for 10 years and Atl moved him to RB last year. He was RB1, got hurt, and they have three legit RBs behind him who ran well when he was out. Pitts gets hurt two weeks ago and they basically moved cpat back to slot WR. Pittsburgh suuuucks at covering the slot. 7.5 yards is dummy low. Smash. Playing it alt line up to 38. 

Garrett Wilson over ~63 rec yards. Minnesota has a bad secondary and they give up a ton through the air. Mike white slangs the rock. Wilson is the clear alpha there. He's a big play waiting to happen at all times. 

Keenan Allen over 67 rec yards - he's back. He's healthy. Herbert is healthy. Raiders don't have anyone who can cover him. The number is 10 yards too low. He should have 10 targets 

David Montgomery over 67 rush yards. CHI OL is legit good at run blocking. GB is soft. They can't stop the run for ****. Chicago will out muscle them up front. I think GB will try and focus on fields running. Monty should have 20+ carries. 

AJ brown over 77 rec yards - Philly is about to play their hardest game of the year. Titans #1 rush D by a mile. You can't run on them. Philly will have to pass and when they are feeling the heat, they lean on AJB hard. Titans pass D is below average partly because they make every team throw the ball since no one can run on them. AJB will get force fed the ball. 

Johnathan Taylor over 74 rush yards - Dallas D can be had on the ground. Indy knows they won't be able to pass and will stick to the run game no matter what. Jeff Saturday has their OL playing well and they are running the ball better since he took over. 

Over 43 rec yards for George kittle. Miami has been bad against TEs partly because they are bad over the middle. That's where Jimmy feasts, and George should be utilized in this role with deebo out. He is a Yac machine obviously and could have this with 3-4 targets. Niners will be coming into the game with the mindset they have to score. That matters and will absolutely help here. 

Over 69 rec yards Amon Ra - ever since hockenson has been traded, he's had the middle of the field to himself. He's been on a tear the last three games. Target hog in a high scoring game. 

5-3 isnt bad, but man, cant help but feel like it should have been better. 

Monty had 58 or 61 rushing yards early in the 4th quarter, the bears had a lead. You would have thought he would have gotten 3-4 more carries in that scenario. Instead, the Bears lose by 9 and we just miss this one. Tough. 

Jimmy G got hurt on the first drive of the game. All bets are off at that point when it comes to rec props. Even though deebo played, I still felt like this was the right spot for a Kittle game. 43 yards is not a ton for a big play player like Kittle. He had a 20+ yard catch and nothing else. They werent sending him over the middle very often until very late in the game and Purdy was looking elsewhere. 

I didnt see the Falcons game at all. Interested to go back and see how many routes Cpat ran. He had 4 carries for 2 yards until late in the game when they were losing and then ended up with 11 for 60 rushes with no catches. This one I regret mainly because the Falcons pass game is so bad, and they really do not want to throw the ball. I would have thought they would try and move the ball through the air against Pittsburgh, but they really just do not trust Mariota to do anything lol 

Some of these went over by 30+ yards. I wish I would have done alt lines on Wilson.

[Broncofan]

5 hours ago, N4L said:

5-3 isnt bad, but man, cant help but feel like it should have been better. 

Monty had 58 or 61 rushing yards early in the 4th quarter, the bears had a lead. You would have thought he would have gotten 3-4 more carries in that scenario. Instead, the Bears lose by 9 and we just miss this one. Tough. 

Jimmy G got hurt on the first drive of the game. All bets are off at that point when it comes to rec props. Even though deebo played, I still felt like this was the right spot for a Kittle game. 43 yards is not a ton for a big play player like Kittle. He had a 20+ yard catch and nothing else. They werent sending him over the middle very often until very late in the game and Purdy was looking elsewhere. 

I didnt see the Falcons game at all. Interested to go back and see how many routes Cpat ran. He had 4 carries for 2 yards until late in the game when they were losing and then ended up with 11 for 60 rushes with no catches. This one I regret mainly because the Falcons pass game is so bad, and they really do not want to throw the ball. I would have thought they would try and move the ball through the air against Pittsburgh, but they really just do not trust Mariota to do anything lol 

Some of these went over by 30+ yards. I wish I would have done alt lines on Wilson.

George Kittle - destroyed by no JimmyG (at least Deebo played so I didn't take alt lines)

Kenneth Walker - 1Q injury (2 carries for 36 yds lol)

Gus Edwards - destroyed by Lamar injury

Aaron Jones - 2Q injury, AJ Dillon goes nuts instead

Now, this is part of why under's win - but IMO when the L's are due to that kind of randomness, well, it means the evals are still strong.     Aaron Jones is probably the one guy who had the shin issue this week, and looking back with pure hindsight, you can say that was a real risk.   And yeah, C-Patt usage has been all over the place.    Otherwise, think the calls were strong.  

It does highlight to me though that the plays need to stick out right away (C-Patt number so low, I get it).     And I would venture that if ppl took alt lines on their 3-4 strongest confidence plays, even if you "only" hit at .500, you pay it off in a big way.    It was a good weekend - could have been a great weekend without so much random injury impact.

[thebestever6]

I'm wondering whether or not to attack the white catch props when they come out. With Tampas oline woes you'd think they'd wanna dump the ball out quick.