Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

Mason came in at 28.5 that's a 2 unit play in my mind think he gets more work on a short week.

[N4L]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Mason came in at 28.5 that's a 2 unit play in my mind think he gets more work on a short week.

SMASH

I also love the alt line on that one. He has the propensity to break a big one. Dude is a load to bring down and is pretty fast. Niners are going to lean on seattle tonight. 

[adamq]

Kroft shot up to +2500 on PB and +2000 on FD 😕

[SmittyBacall]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

SMASH

I also love the alt line on that one. He has the propensity to break a big one. Dude is a load to bring down and is pretty fast. Niners are going to lean on seattle tonight. 

It’s gonna suck when Mason doesn’t get a snap.

[N4L]

3 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

It’s gonna suck when Mason doesn’t get a snap.

I thought they would use him earlier in the game because it's TNF, but all of his career touches have come in the second half of games. 

He has back to back 50 yard games. Still plenty of time to get 30 yards 

[SmittyBacall]

4 minutes ago, N4L said:

I thought they would use him earlier in the game because it's TNF, but all of his career touches have come in the second half of games. 

He has back to back 50 yard games. Still plenty of time to get 30 yards 

I’m with you, dude! I’d feel better if SF could build a multi score lead.

[adamq]

15 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

It’s gonna suck when Mason doesn’t get a snap.

Classic Shanahan 🤣

[adamq]

HE DID IT! MASOOOOOOOOOOOOOOON

[N4L]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

I thought they would use him earlier in the game because it's TNF, but all of his career touches have come in the second half of games. 

He has back to back 50 yard games. Still plenty of time to get 30 yards 

LFG

[Broncofan]

10 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I'm on SF -3 as well - but also on Metcalf / Lockett props.    Anytime the SF pass rush doesn't get home, there's a chance for a chunk play.   I also see Geno making 3-4 TO worthy decisions, and SF getting 2 of them.   But they also can give up yards (much like they did with Tyreek Hill, and frankly, if Tua makes better middle area throws, Waddle gets his too.

I'm probably not going to go with heavy alt lines, other than CMC rushing (while going with his combo yard prop as the main play).   One thing I've really appreciated from Shanny is his willingness to spread it around -  Mason rush yds, Juice pass yds, and CMC combo yards are all strong plays.   And yes, I do think Kittle gets past the #. 

My card so far looks like:"

ATS/ML

SF -3 2U - the mismatch is just too great to overcome the SEA HFA.   IMO it would take a SEA +2 TO margin to win this game.   Other than Metcalf/Lockett vs. CB's, and Woolen vs. Ayiuk, the matchups swing to SF.   

 

PLAYER PROPS

CMC O117.5 combined yds 2U / 100+ rush yds +240 / 120+ +500 0.5U FD - I just have to back the main guy here vs. SEA's D.  If I think SF is winning, I gotta back this one.   I chose to do the O117.5 combined yds prop, though as the 2U play - mainly because with Purdy's injury, I have no idea whether they go pass CMC heavy, or just run him a lot (with Mason).  

George Kittle O41.5 rec yds 2U - with Aiyuk drawing Tariq Woolen's attention, I have to go a little Kittle here.    If SEA uses Woolen on Kittle (I haven't seen that yet, but just saying), then it's a problem.  But I have to believe the scheme / personnel issues that make SEA vulnerable to TE won't change here.

?Jordan Mason rush yds (not out yet)? - depends on the #

Tyler Lockett O60.5 rec yds - see reasoning in OP above, no run game, all pass for SEA.

DK Metcalf O63.5 rec yds - see reasoning in OP above, no run game, all pass for SEA

TD PROPS

Tyler Kroft +1400 0.5U FD - if I like the TE matchup, I have to take Kroft - ESP since Kittle could always be blocking/decoy in the RZ, and Kroft sneaks in for the TD.   If ppl are feeling a little frisky, they might want to wait, as the odds have gone from +1000 from the time @adamq mentioned this, to +1400 now.   

That's 10U, but spread out risk-wise, which seems wise given how prime time has gone lol.  BOL!

 

Well, the Mason prop came out too late for me to take part, but I won't complain - other than DK Metcalf barely falling short and more important, Tyler Kroft literally 1 missed tackle (or let Kittle catch up dude) for a walk in TD.....ack, so close.

But EVERYTHING else was aces, and pretty early too - very little to no sweat (good for you Mason bettors on that last play lol - was kinda hoping he'd score and then Metcalf could backdoor lol).

ATS/ML - 1-0, +2U, never in doubt.   Frankly, SF D was unlucky not to get the pick 6 and could have had 2-3 picks off Geno.  

PLAYER PROPS - 3-1, 2-0 high-confidence plays, +6U

TD PROPS - 0-1, -0.5U - sooo close.  I cannot complain at all.

Feels good to have a no-sweat +7.5U start.   Could have been amazing with both DK & Kroft almost hitting, too, would have been 17U day in that case, but really hard to complain.  On to Sat's slate!

 

 

__________________________________________________________

 

WEEK 14 FINAL

ATS/ ML & RACE

36-24-2 ATS, 11-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +32.2U. (+2U, 1-0 Week 15 TNF, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

101-98,  BALANCE  +46.5U (+6U WEEK 15 TNF - Now 57-51 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

26-118, BALANCE +113.1U  (-0.5U Week 15 TNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 )
 

TOTAL:  +191.8U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 TNF - +7.5U).

 

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK got some crazy **** going down on DK - 3 players with alt lines that are juiced, 1 of which is a repeat, and 4 other plays I like, but with "only" straight 2U plays, as the alt lines aren't that appealing compared to the other exploits...

ATS/ML

SAT

BAL +3 - I know, Lamar's still out.   It's again just a bad matchup, although I do think CLE will have more success in the air this week.    I think BAL squeaks it out, so taking the pts is a nice hedge on that gut feel.

BUF -7 - MIA has had to play on D for 84 & 83 plays, travels on a short week, and goes to frigid BUF, with a lot of snow.  The heat and a short-handed BUF O are why MIA pulled out a great W at home, but I see the usual mismatches BUF offers that makes this a 10+ pt win IMO.

SUN

DET ML +110 - if Mike White was healthy, I'd be nervous.   And yes it's on the road - but likely no Quinnen Williams vs. that great OL, and the DET pass rush who can get to White, and maybe get Zach Wilson into the game?  I have to take the dog shot.

DEN ML -105 (now -160) - I took this way before any news on Russell Wilson playing, and even with Kyler still playing, before MNF.    DEN gets their RT & EDGE back in Billy Turner & Randy Gregory, and maybe even Russell Wilson (which I didn't factor in when I took the play).    Honestly, I'd probably back DEN -3 here.

CIN -3.5 - I wish it didn't have the hook, but with no Vita Vea, and the secondary still struggling, along with the O, I just think this is a 7+ pt CIN win.  Only way TAM makes it close are TO's or some major bad coaching by Zac Taylor, so it's not a lock, but I have to go with my gut.

 

That's 5U in play, and I also took a 0.5U parley with SF-3 (won), so that would get me +5200 again, if I can run hot on Week 14. 

 

PLAYER PROPS - SAT ONLY FOR NOW

Jonathan Taylor O17.5 rec yds 2U - MIN's run D is quite solid, but they're vulnerable to the RB pass game, and I expect IND will use JT as they have been post-Hines trade.   There are no alt lines, so I'm leaving it as a straight 2U play.

Michael Pittman O68.5 rec yds 2U - MIN's pass D gives a lot of yds to the #1 WR, so I don't see why that changes here.  The alt lines aren't skewed like with other Sat plays, so no real point to push it.

JK Dobbins O48.5 rush yds DK deferred, 50+ rush yds +110 2U, 75+ rush yds +340, 100+ rush yds +750 0.5U DK - I know he's limping a bit, but it's CLE D - it's crazy to get any plus money for basically 2 more yds from the main prop, so I'll skip to the 1st alt line at 50+ for +110, and go the 1.5U alt line for 75/100 on DK.

Donovan Peoples-Jones O48.5 rec yds DK/FD deferred, 50+ rec yds +120 2U, 75+ rec yds +340, 100+ rec yds +750 0.5U DK - the guy that Watson has the biggest connection with on the boundary, vs a D that gives up chunk plays.   75+/100+ Alt lines are worth it at those #'s too for 1.5U.  I also expect Marlon Humphery to focus on Amari Cooper, which is why I love DPJ at those #'s.

David Njoku O38.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK - the other guy Watson has a connection with - but his alt lines don't have the same juice as DPJ/Dobbins or Josh Allen, so again no point in taking more risk for less payoff.

Josh Allen O47.5 rush yds DK deferred, 50+ rush yards +195 3U, 75+ rush yds +340 1U  DK- so yeah, the 50+ yard prop is all screwed up.  No point in taking the main line, just adding it all on 50+.  If he gets 48-49, I'll be p****ed lol.  But that's value I can't pass up.

Isaiah McKenzie O29.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK - the slot guy gives MIA a TON of trouble....so easy play at that yardage.   Again, no alt lines out, and unless they're mega-juiced, isn't really worth the extra risk compared to the extra value with Allen / DPJ / Dobbins.

That's 19U in play for Sat's player props (gulp) - but gotta trust my evals here. 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS - SAT ONLY FOR NOW

Desean Jackson +1200 DK 0.5U FD - the main deep threat guy, those odds are too good to not take a 0.5U shot.

David Njoku +340 / +3000 1.2U / 0.3U DK - Watson building a connection, and looks for him in the RZ.   Def worth the 1.5U combined shot.

With 2U for Sat TD plays, that puts 26U at risk (although 3U are Sun ATS/ML plays lol).    That's definitely enough for Saturday - hoping for another winning day! BOL!

Edited December 16, 2022 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

How do you guys see the Cowboys/Jaguars game? As a fan I feel too close to this one because anytime people buy the Jaguars they seem to let you down(see Lions/Texans game)

Line has moved from 6.5 to 4 after 1 week

[thebestever6]

I kinda like the Steelers getting 3 on the road against the panthers.

[adamq]

51 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

How do you guys see the Cowboys/Jaguars game? As a fan I feel too close to this one because anytime people buy the Jaguars they seem to let you down(see Lions/Texans game)

Line has moved from 6.5 to 4 after 1 week

Personally I am down on Jax this week. Facing a tough defense, this will be a real test for TLaw

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

DET ML +110 - if Mike White was healthy, I'd be nervous.   And yes it's on the road - but likely no Quinnen Williams vs. that great OL, and the DET pass rush who can get to White, and maybe get Zach Wilson into the game?  I have to take the dog shot.

 

 

And the scenario where DET is a value play comes to life.   Plus Quinnen Williams is not playing. Hammer DET ML ppl.... it's now -120, but IMO that's still value (obv at +110 it was a strong play for this exact risk).

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Broncofan