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Broncofan

Broncofan

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23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK got some crazy **** going down on DK - 3 players with alt lines that are juiced, 1 of which is a repeat, and 4 other plays I like, but with "only" straight 2U plays, as the alt lines aren't that appealing compared to the other exploits...

ATS/ML

SAT

BAL +3 - I know, Lamar's still out.   It's again just a bad matchup, although I do think CLE will have more success in the air this week.    I think BAL squeaks it out, so taking the pts is a nice hedge on that gut feel.

BUF -7 - MIA has had to play on D for 84 & 83 plays, travels on a short week, and goes to frigid BUF, with a lot of snow.  The heat and a short-handed BUF O are why MIA pulled out a great W at home, but I see the usual mismatches BUF offers that makes this a 10+ pt win IMO.

SUN

DET ML +110 - if Mike White was healthy, I'd be nervous.   And yes it's on the road - but likely no Quinnen Williams vs. that great OL, and the DET pass rush who can get to White, and maybe get Zach Wilson into the game?  I have to take the dog shot.

DEN ML -105 (now -160) - I took this way before any news on Russell Wilson playing, and even with Kyler still playing, before MNF.    DEN gets their RT & EDGE back in Billy Turner & Randy Gregory, and maybe even Russell Wilson (which I didn't factor in when I took the play).    Honestly, I'd probably back DEN -3 here.

CIN -3.5 - I wish it didn't have the hook, but with no Vita Vea, and the secondary still struggling, along with the O, I just think this is a 7+ pt CIN win.  Only way TAM makes it close are TO's or some major bad coaching by Zac Taylor, so it's not a lock, but I have to go with my gut.

 

That's 5U in play, and I also took a 0.5U parley with SF-3 (won), so that would get me +5200 again, if I can run hot on Week 14. 

 

PLAYER PROPS - SAT ONLY FOR NOW

Jonathan Taylor O17.5 rec yds 2U - MIN's run D is quite solid, but they're vulnerable to the RB pass game, and I expect IND will use JT as they have been post-Hines trade.   There are no alt lines, so I'm leaving it as a straight 2U play.

Michael Pittman O68.5 rec yds 2U - MIN's pass D gives a lot of yds to the #1 WR, so I don't see why that changes here.  The alt lines aren't skewed like with other Sat plays, so no real point to push it.

JK Dobbins O48.5 rush yds DK deferred, 50+ rush yds +110 2U, 75+ rush yds +340, 100+ rush yds +750 0.5U DK - I know he's limping a bit, but it's CLE D - it's crazy to get any plus money for basically 2 more yds from the main prop, so I'll skip to the 1st alt line at 50+ for +110, and go the 1.5U alt line for 75/100 on DK.

Donovan Peoples-Jones O48.5 rec yds DK/FD deferred, 50+ rec yds +120 2U, 75+ rec yds +340, 100+ rec yds +750 0.5U DK - the guy that Watson has the biggest connection with on the boundary, vs a D that gives up chunk plays.   75+/100+ Alt lines are worth it at those #'s too for 1.5U.  I also expect Marlon Humphery to focus on Amari Cooper, which is why I love DPJ at those #'s.

David Njoku O38.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK - the other guy Watson has a connection with - but his alt lines don't have the same juice as DPJ/Dobbins or Josh Allen, so again no point in taking more risk for less payoff.

Josh Allen O47.5 rush yds DK deferred, 50+ rush yards +195 3U, 75+ rush yds +340 1U  DK- so yeah, the 50+ yard prop is all screwed up.  No point in taking the main line, just adding it all on 50+.  If he gets 48-49, I'll be p****ed lol.  But that's value I can't pass up.

Isaiah McKenzie O29.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK - the slot guy gives MIA a TON of trouble....so easy play at that yardage.   Again, no alt lines out, and unless they're mega-juiced, isn't really worth the extra risk compared to the extra value with Allen / DPJ / Dobbins.

That's 19U in play for Sat's player props (gulp) - but gotta trust my evals here. 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS - SAT ONLY FOR NOW

Desean Jackson +1200 DK 0.5U FD - the main deep threat guy, those odds are too good to not take a 0.5U shot.

David Njoku +340 / +3000 1.2U / 0.3U DK - Watson building a connection, and looks for him in the RZ.   Def worth the 1.5U combined shot.

With 2U for Sat TD plays, that puts 26U at risk (although 3U are Sun ATS/ML plays lol).    That's definitely enough for Saturday - hoping for another winning day! BOL!

OK so this is going to be one scary weekend lol.....got another 20U+ on Sunday in addition to Sat's 26U set of plays, here goes...

 

WEEK 15 SUN/MON PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD’s

SUN / MON PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Danny Jones O28.5 rush yds 2U / 40+ rush yds +200 / 60+ rush yds +630 0.5U FD - again, this is a D where the QB run is a major leverage spot.  I do NOT get the alt lines being so generous, but I have to attack this.

Chris Olave O60.5 rec yds 2U - the success NO might encounter running the ball is the only reason I’m not going to attack alt lines here.   But I have to get to the main prop for 2U as long as he’s the main target.

LATE

Greg Dulcich O38.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +260, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U FD - this is scary as **** with Brett Rypien as the QB - but ARI is soooo bad against TE’s, and we know he’ll be targeted.   Take a deep breath, and believe in the evals.

Mike Williams O65.5 rec yds 2U - I really would like to see the DK alt lines, because I wonder if I can get a better alt line than FD's (which are only at +200 for 90+ & +440 for 110+), but I’m definitely going to go here on the main prop with TEN’s pass D vulnerability, and no Fulton / Autry (pass rush).

3 other players who are flying under the radar where I would love rec yd props:

Rasheed Shaheem, NO WR rec yds 2U- who’s become the #2 WR and a big threat with a full route tree

Chris Moore, HOU WR rec yds 2U + alt lines - who becomes the #1 target vs. KC with Cooks/Collins out.   

Tutu Atwell, LAR WR for MNF rec yds +/- alt lines (may not be enough of a known player) - becoming their speed-threat, but also bubble screen / crosser & YAC guy (not necessarily long-term, but with this motley crue, he's the other guy besides Van Jefferson to get consistent work, appears to be passing Skowronek as top-2 WR).

I’ll be waiting to get both props, at least for 2U plays, and looking for 3.5U plays if there are juicy alt lines.  But that’s 11U in Sunday prop plays, with at least 6U more with those 3 guys as long as props come out (that aren’t insane, but I think they’ll be all low, given they’re not mainstream).

 

SUN/MON LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Mycole Pruitt +900 FD - I can’t believe the line is this high, I know NO’s TE D is very good, but Pruitt will still get snaps and looks in the RZ.   Easy play.

Khadarel Hodge +1000 FD 0.5U - same idea, he’s the #3 WR, but they do look his way.     He won’t see the field as much so it’s a 0.5U play.

Juwan Johnson +380 FD / +3500 2+ TD’s (0.8U/0.2U) FD - he’s back this week, they keep offering him near +400, I’ll keep taking it lol.

Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +5000 2+ TD’s (0.8U/0.2U) FD - like I wrote up in the player props, he’s emerging in that NO O as the clear WR2 behind Olave, have to take my shot here.

Adam Prentice +3000 0.25U FD - who?   He’s the NO backup RB who got on the field for about 10 snaps last week.    Total flier, but the odds are so crazy….have to take a sniff (same as my MNF Who-Is-That-Guy 0.25U play).

Peyton Hendershot +1200 TD FD - with confirmation Jason Ferguson is out, he gets all the TE2 work, vs. bottom 5 TE DST in JAX.   Worth the play.

LATE

Greg Dulcich +350 / +3500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - ARI’s D is so TE leaky (another bottom-5 TE D by DVOA), I have to take my shot here as well.

Jalen Vigil +2200 0.5U FD x2 - taking a guess that he may the guy who takes more work with Hinton / Sutton both out.    Hoping I can cash 1 of the 2 bets early with a massive odds drop pre-game for + money and then basically freeroll this play.

Marcus Jones +1000 0.5U - with Meyers still limited and Parker out, they’ll mix him in - he’s a raw player, so can’t go crazy, but a 0.5U play makes sense.

SNF/MNF

Kyren Williams +600 / +5000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - he got a lot more work in the 2H after Akers fumbled, and he’s more of the pass catcher RB anyways, so just taking a MNF shot on long odds, with a clear role.

Tutu Atwell +600 / +5500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - he’s definitely got chemistry with Baker Mayfield, and they scheme plays for him.   So gotta take the shot here.

Austin Trammell +3000 0.25U FD - he’s now their 4th WR, and he’s the other slot…so at that number, I’ve got to take a small stab lol.

So that’s 3U in Sunday ATS/ML plays from before (DET ML +110, DEN -105 ML and CIN -3.5), 11U in player props (and likely 6U more coming) and 9.5U in TD props.  So definitely enough adding 20U+ to the prior card.  BOL!

Edited by Broncofan
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adamq

adamq

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Found 2 I like in addition..

Durham Smythe +1000 .5U  seems crazy even with the weather. He is the #1 TE, and even though both teams will likely run it often, close to the goal line Miami isn't going to be able to pound it up the middle so gimme the big guy

 

Michael Pittman +180 2U   2 TDs +1300 DK .5U

Mac Jones put up 400 yards on this d, come on now. I like Pitttman to have a big one today, also in on his yards 

You have to make a SGP to get this line, so I paired it with Cousins O25 pass attempts

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adamq

adamq

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I was putting in some bets on FD for tomorrow and landed on this wacky parlay of some of your TD picks Broncofan....

Dulcich 2+/Virgil/Pruitt/Hendershot/Kyren

$2.12 to win $997,000, the max allowed. Let's go Rypien! 😂

 

Also Gerald Everett's lines stick out to me.. Engram tore up that defense last week and Everett gets his targets even with Allen playing. 60+ yards seems very doable, +390

 

Edit- 75+ is +1050 on Pointsbet. Flashbacks of Hunter Henry 

Edited by adamq
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan Dobbins wayyyy over. You remain the prop god.

 

On 12/16/2022 at 1:10 AM, Broncofan said:

OK got some crazy **** going down on DK - 3 players with alt lines that are juiced, 1 of which is a repeat, and 4 other plays I like, but with "only" straight 2U plays, as the alt lines aren't that appealing compared to the other exploits...

ATS/ML

SAT

BAL +3 - I know, Lamar's still out.   It's again just a bad matchup, although I do think CLE will have more success in the air this week.    I think BAL squeaks it out, so taking the pts is a nice hedge on that gut feel.

BUF -7 - MIA has had to play on D for 84 & 83 plays, travels on a short week, and goes to frigid BUF, with a lot of snow.  The heat and a short-handed BUF O are why MIA pulled out a great W at home, but I see the usual mismatches BUF offers that makes this a 10+ pt win IMO.

SUN

DET ML +110 - if Mike White was healthy, I'd be nervous.   And yes it's on the road - but likely no Quinnen Williams vs. that great OL, and the DET pass rush who can get to White, and maybe get Zach Wilson into the game?  I have to take the dog shot.

DEN ML -105 (now -160) - I took this way before any news on Russell Wilson playing, and even with Kyler still playing, before MNF.    DEN gets their RT & EDGE back in Billy Turner & Randy Gregory, and maybe even Russell Wilson (which I didn't factor in when I took the play).    Honestly, I'd probably back DEN -3 here.

CIN -3.5 - I wish it didn't have the hook, but with no Vita Vea, and the secondary still struggling, along with the O, I just think this is a 7+ pt CIN win.  Only way TAM makes it close are TO's or some major bad coaching by Zac Taylor, so it's not a lock, but I have to go with my gut.

 

That's 5U in play, and I also took a 0.5U parley with SF-3 (won), so that would get me +5200 again, if I can run hot on Week 14. 

 

PLAYER PROPS - SAT ONLY FOR NOW

Jonathan Taylor O17.5 rec yds 2U - MIN's run D is quite solid, but they're vulnerable to the RB pass game, and I expect IND will use JT as they have been post-Hines trade.   There are no alt lines, so I'm leaving it as a straight 2U play.

Michael Pittman O68.5 rec yds 2U - MIN's pass D gives a lot of yds to the #1 WR, so I don't see why that changes here.  The alt lines aren't skewed like with other Sat plays, so no real point to push it.

JK Dobbins O48.5 rush yds DK deferred, 50+ rush yds +110 2U, 75+ rush yds +340, 100+ rush yds +750 0.5U DK - I know he's limping a bit, but it's CLE D - it's crazy to get any plus money for basically 2 more yds from the main prop, so I'll skip to the 1st alt line at 50+ for +110, and go the 1.5U alt line for 75/100 on DK.

Donovan Peoples-Jones O48.5 rec yds DK/FD deferred, 50+ rec yds +120 2U, 75+ rec yds +340, 100+ rec yds +750 0.5U DK - the guy that Watson has the biggest connection with on the boundary, vs a D that gives up chunk plays.   75+/100+ Alt lines are worth it at those #'s too for 1.5U.  I also expect Marlon Humphery to focus on Amari Cooper, which is why I love DPJ at those #'s.

David Njoku O38.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK - the other guy Watson has a connection with - but his alt lines don't have the same juice as DPJ/Dobbins or Josh Allen, so again no point in taking more risk for less payoff.

Josh Allen O47.5 rush yds DK deferred, 50+ rush yards +195 3U, 75+ rush yds +340 1U  DK- so yeah, the 50+ yard prop is all screwed up.  No point in taking the main line, just adding it all on 50+.  If he gets 48-49, I'll be p****ed lol.  But that's value I can't pass up.

Isaiah McKenzie O29.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK - the slot guy gives MIA a TON of trouble....so easy play at that yardage.   Again, no alt lines out, and unless they're mega-juiced, isn't really worth the extra risk compared to the extra value with Allen / DPJ / Dobbins.

That's 19U in play for Sat's player props (gulp) - but gotta trust my evals here. 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS - SAT ONLY FOR NOW

Desean Jackson +1200 DK 0.5U FD - the main deep threat guy, those odds are too good to not take a 0.5U shot.

David Njoku +340 / +3000 1.2U / 0.3U DK - Watson building a connection, and looks for him in the RZ.   Def worth the 1.5U combined shot.

With 2U for Sat TD plays, that puts 26U at risk (although 3U are Sun ATS/ML plays lol).    That's definitely enough for Saturday - hoping for another winning day! BOL!

Today shows the benefit of the alt lines - went 2-5 with player props (J-Taylor 2U play refunded  by DK too along with B365, Pittman and CLE props totally derailed by crazy game script with that massive 1H Indy lead and CLE pass props with 2 missed FG by Tucker and RZ TO by Huntley eliminating the need to throw in 2H  - along with BAL ML too), 0-2 with ATS / ML plays and 0-2 TD (both guys got looks deep in the RZ no regrets). 


But because all the alt lines hit for both Josh Allen rush (50+ being +195 massive at 3U, 75+ at +340) & JK Dobbins rush at +340 / +750 - it’s a +7.2U profit with Taylor refund lol.   I’ll take it.  On to Sunday! 

Edited by Broncofan
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N4L

N4L

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On 12/15/2022 at 10:10 PM, Broncofan said:

DEN ML -105 (now -160) - I took this way before any news on Russell Wilson playing, and even with Kyler still playing, before MNF.    DEN gets their RT & EDGE back in Billy Turner & Randy Gregory, and maybe even Russell Wilson (which I didn't factor in when I took the play).    Honestly, I'd probably back DEN -3 here.

CIN -3.5 - I wish it didn't have the hook, but with no Vita Vea, and the secondary still struggling, along with the O, I just think this is a 7+ pt CIN win.  Only way TAM makes it close are TO's or some major bad coaching by Zac Taylor, so it's not a lock, but I have to go with my gut.

I love Denver and Cincy. Denver's defense should have zero issues with the cardinals offense. Colt McCoy is terrible and Kliff is a fraud. That team has collapsed, and Denver is still fighting despite bad results. 

Tampa is a shell of itself and they are missing too many pieces along the OL and in the secondary. Vita Vea is out and Cincy should be able to run the ball a lot. Cincy is very physical on defense. Hendrickson being out is not great but DJ Reeder is back and that has changed things for them. Their defense is rounding into form. 

I think NEs front is going to terrorize the Raiders offense. Bill always owns his assistants. He knows their scheme better than they do. Judon and Uche are unblockable right now and they are going to get Barmore back. Carr is not a guy who plays well when pressured. NE's offense is tough to bet on but the raiders defense is not a strong unit. I am doing a large teaser NE +7.5 and the under 51, as well as betting the under 45 in that game. 

I also like the Over 48 in the DAL/JAX game. Lawrence seems to have found his groove. The offense is rounding into form. The dallas offense has a lot of pieces and can attack in a lot of different ways. This line is a few points higher than I would have hoped, so I dont love it, but I like it a lot. 

 

On 12/16/2022 at 6:37 PM, Broncofan said:

OK so this is going to be one scary weekend lol.....got another 20U+ on Sunday in addition to Sat's 26U set of plays, here goes...

 

WEEK 15 SUN/MON PLAYER PROPS / LONGSHOT TD’s

SUN / MON PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Danny Jones O28.5 rush yds 2U / 40+ rush yds +200 / 60+ rush yds +630 0.5U FD - again, this is a D where the QB run is a major leverage spot.  I do NOT get the alt lines being so generous, but I have to attack this.

Chris Olave O60.5 rec yds 2U - the success NO might encounter running the ball is the only reason I’m not going to attack alt lines here.   But I have to get to the main prop for 2U as long as he’s the main target.

Will tail these two. Love the Olave one. 

Miles sanders over 67.5 rush yards - Bears defense has let up a lot on the ground, they are heavy favorites, he can always break a big run as long as he gets the touches. 

Pacheco over 71.5 rush yards - Houston run D with a positive game script. Feels like he should not have any trouble with this one 

Derek Carr under 240 pass yards - LIS above, Carr has been known to wilt under pressure. NE has perhaps the most lethal pass rush in football right now. Raiders clearly do not trust him as evidenced by last week. Feels like it will be tough sledding for them on offense. 

Keenan allen over 6.5 receptions - He is Herbert's favorite target and the titans are a pass funnel defense. Seems like they are getting their timing down. He had 14 targets for 6 catches two weeks ago against the raiders, and then had 14 targets for 12 catches against the dolphins. That is encouraging. Will do the alt line up to 9 and 10. 

Keenan allen over 72 rec yards - will play this up to 112 alt lines.

Ekeler over 5.5 receptions - This scheme is designed to throw to RBs and they are playing a pass funnel D. He is on pace to break the single season rec record for RBs. Titans give up a lot of receptions to RBs https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/TEN/teambreakdown/standard 

 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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2 hours ago, N4L said:

I love Denver and Cincy. Denver's defense should have zero issues with the cardinals offense. Colt McCoy is terrible and Kliff is a fraud. That team has collapsed, and Denver is still fighting despite bad results. 

Tampa is a shell of itself and they are missing too many pieces along the OL and in the secondary. Vita Vea is out and Cincy should be able to run the ball a lot. Cincy is very physical on defense. Hendrickson being out is not great but DJ Reeder is back and that has changed things for them. Their defense is rounding into form. 

I think NEs front is going to terrorize the Raiders offense. Bill always owns his assistants. He knows their scheme better than they do. Judon and Uche are unblockable right now and they are going to get Barmore back. Carr is not a guy who plays well when pressured. NE's offense is tough to bet on but the raiders defense is not a strong unit. I am doing a large teaser NE +7.5 and the under 51, as well as betting the under 45 in that game. 

I also like the Over 48 in the DAL/JAX game. Lawrence seems to have found his groove. The offense is rounding into form. The dallas offense has a lot of pieces and can attack in a lot of different ways. This line is a few points higher than I would have hoped, so I dont love it, but I like it a lot. 

 

Will tail these two. Love the Olave one. 

Miles sanders over 67.5 rush yards - Bears defense has let up a lot on the ground, they are heavy favorites, he can always break a big run as long as he gets the touches. 

Pacheco over 71.5 rush yards - Houston run D with a positive game script. Feels like he should not have any trouble with this one 

Derek Carr under 240 pass yards - LIS above, Carr has been known to wilt under pressure. NE has perhaps the most lethal pass rush in football right now. Raiders clearly do not trust him as evidenced by last week. Feels like it will be tough sledding for them on offense. 

Keenan allen over 6.5 receptions - He is Herbert's favorite target and the titans are a pass funnel defense. Seems like they are getting their timing down. He had 14 targets for 6 catches two weeks ago against the raiders, and then had 14 targets for 12 catches against the dolphins. That is encouraging. Will do the alt line up to 9 and 10. 

Keenan allen over 72 rec yards - will play this up to 112 alt lines.

Ekeler over 5.5 receptions - This scheme is designed to throw to RBs and they are playing a pass funnel D. He is on pace to break the single season rec record for RBs. Titans give up a lot of receptions to RBs https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/TEN/teambreakdown/standard 

 

 

 

Tailing Miles Sanders o68.5 rush yds and adding the 80+ rush yds +180 & 100+ rush yds +360 0.5U FD alt lines. Love the call @N4L & 100 percent back the gamescript.  
 

I found 2 DK plays that have Chris Moore & Tutu Atwell so added both:

-Chris Moore 50+ Rec yds -130 2.6U & 75+ Rec yds +240 & 100+ Rec yds +560 0.5U DK - vs KC D and in slot this is a smash spot   

-Tutu Atwell o28.5 Rec yds 2U & SGP Rams 10+ pts / +17.5 & Atwell 45+ Rec yds +400 with DK SGP boost - as the emerging #2 WR gotta this shot.  
 

Sadly no Rasheed Shaheed yardage plays yet - which means it’s likely in 20’s.   Alt line 40/60 would have been the 3.5U play.  Oh well.  
 

So that’s 3U in ATS/ML plays, 22U in 7 player props (19U/6 for Sunday) & 9.5U in TD props (7U for Sunday).  That’s definitely enough for now lol.  
 

BOL! 

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