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Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

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1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Richie James props came out what are you deciding to do with that?


You know the answer with IND slot CB Kenny Moore confirmed out lol   

Richie James o37.5 Rec yds 2U DK / 60+ Rec yds +270 / 80+ Rec yds +630 0.5U FD added.   

Edited by Broncofan
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On 12/31/2022 at 10:01 AM, N4L said:

Came here to post these three. Love to see it. 

I am a huge Dotson fan and he is the #1 in Washington. He is Wentz's go to guy and this number is far too low for a guy with his big play abilities 

I am also firmly behind CAR+3 and I see it's +4 now. Perfect teaser leg imo. 49ers -2, Panthers +10 is a great teaser

I also really like the over in the GB game. Haven't checked the weather. GB is a slow team as far as pace of play goes but I think both defenses are susceptible to big plays so I think there could be some fireworks in this one.

Tyler allgeir over 75 rush yards - ATL sticks to the run in all game scripts, Cardinals defense is bad and the team is a mess. Shouldn't have a problem with this one in a + matchup 

Drake London over 56 rec yards. He's been heavily targeted. He has taken some small steps forward with his route running. They have started to truly feature him. 56 yards is a low number against a bad secondary. 

Brandon Aiyuk over 50 rec yards. He is a big play WR who is a phenomenal route runner. Can go deep or take a short pass the distance. The niners offense has been clicking and he is due for a monster game. Will hammer this number and look to the alt lines up to 80 or so. 

Kittle over 44.5 rec yards - this number is just too low for a guy with his abilities, on the streak he is on, playing in a + matchup. Jimmy did not look to kittle as frequently as Purdy does. He should be open over the middle against the raiders. He is a big play waiting to happen. Should be able to hit this in 3 maybe 4 catches. 

Evan engram over 45 rec yards - he has been heavily featured in a TE friendly scheme. He's been making a ton of plays downfield and has been earning a ton of targets. This line is 15-20 yards off imo. Houstons run D has been bad all season and, while I think they have been better in that department, I think it can leave the middle open for TEs. 

Might have more later 

Really like the reasoning on all the plays; only one I’d question is Engram.    They’ve been solid about limiting pass game production (while being awful vs the run).    JAX’s O exploits the biggest mismatches which is why some weeks it’s Engram, others it’s Kirk or Zay Jones.
 

The one other prop I’d back hard is Greg Dortch Rec yards if it’s less than 30 yards.  Sadly there aren’t any props so far but every time the Cards don’t have Nuk he gets a large target share.   David Blough as starter is only reason to keep it to main props alone. 

Edited by Broncofan
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9 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

I see a popular SGP that has KC listed as a 1st Quarter Winner 3-Way No Push.

I just googled what that meant and am even more confused lol. Anyone want to help me understand?

3 was means KC, DEN, or tie. If you take KC they must be leading after the first quarter.

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1 hour ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

So I'm pumped Ohio has legalize betting now. Anyone have advice for same game parlays? I understand the concept but wasn't sure of any pointers or things that might not be seen on the surface to be aware of

Honestly SGP’s are losing props.  I only take them when they are free or are the only way to access a player prop I can’t do solo.   
 

For example let’s say I like Rasheed prop to hit 75+ yards on DK.   But it’s only open as a SGP piece.   Then I’ll take the lowest possible NO team total at -600 and add that.   Even then there’s risk.  
 

SGP’s suck overall because you only need 1 leg to lose.   No matter the combo odds it’s never worth it.  Unless it’s free lol.  

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