Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

On 12/30/2022 at 7:17 AM, Broncofan said:

Ok for the weekend several plays stand out (nothing on TD props yet): 

ATS / ML 

EARLY

DEN +13.5 2U - as long as Jeudy & D guys ok, I’m good with backing DEN post-Hackett.  They just keep it closer to KC than ppl expect. 
 

CAR +3 - Tampa losing another T.   Mismatches everywhere to CAR except the CB - so will take the pts instead of the +140 ML 

LATE 

MIN ML +160 - matchups in key places;  they’d love to eliminate GB.  Wouldn’t have to face them either.   Bad Kirk is the risk.   If ppl want to go MIN +3.5 can’t argue it. 

NYJ -2.5 - with a decent QB (ie not Zach Wilson), they hammer mediocre teams - SEA really not the same on D and OL of late.  Geno without decent run game having more trouble.  The Jets do need Quinnen Williams to play for this to be a confidence play though.    

SNF

PIT ML +130  - BAL O in serious trouble if they can’t run.   

MNF

BUF ML -120 - love CIN but Bills on a mission to have the 1 seed.  

That’s 7U in 6 plays - have the free 0.2U parley at +7800 with the 2 MIN / PIT ML boosted odds as well.   

 

WEEK 17 SUN PLAYER PROPS 

OK here’s the updated Sunday card: 

Tyler Conklin o26.5 Rec yds 3U, 50+ Rec yds +320 1.5U DK @ SEA  - Sea funnels pass to TE / RB and Mike White loves him.  I’m going 1.5U on his 50+ Rec yds alt lines on DK

 

Richie James o37.5 Rec yds 2U DK / 60+ Rec yds +270 / 80+ Rec yds +630 0.5U FD - with IND slot CB Kenny Moore out we’ve seen Lamb, Osborn & Allen go crazy - same deal here, on lower scale; gotta go here.  
 

Cam Akers o69.5 rush yds 2U DK @ LAC - LAC still vulnerable and McVay committed to run.  No alt lines with risk of gamescript going wrong.

Dalvin Cook o71.5 rush yds 2U DK  @ GB - GB still has major rush D issues.   MIN will pound the ball knowing this (plus Jefferson)   EDIT: line moved all way to 76.5 before alt lines came out on FD so alt lines ROI no longer as attractive - just main prop. 

Rashid Shaheed O36.5 rec yd 2U, unclear on DK/FD alt lines - with the secondary injuries and Landry on IR, I'm confident even with Olave back, that Shaheed should see 5-6 targets, and get past the mid-30's target.   If the juice is there, will consider the 50+ prop on DK (doubt FD will have it, but I'll look).

Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, FD alt lines pending - same deal here, although PHI is better at TE D overall, of late they've been leaky.  

Jelani Woods O27.5 rec yds 2U DK - Landon Collins has returned, but the NYG TE D has really missed Xavier McKinney.   So this is still worth playing.   I suspect there won't be alt lines out, being that Woods in theory is the backup behind Alie-Cox, even though he's their top receiving TE target.  EDIT:  McKinney surprise return so no alt lines. 

Jahan Dotson O40.5 rec yds 2U FD -  OK, the number is low enough, I'll bite.   Wentz doesn't throw deep as much, but he still likes Dotson a lot, so I have to play this.  The uncertainty of how much Wentz will go downfield makes the alt lines a pass this week.

 I still want to see Jerry Jeudy’s prop (injury low ankle issue so likely only 2U play) 

WAITING PROPS 

1 more that aren’t out yet I’m almost certainly going to add: 

Jerry Jeudy Rec yds 2U if in low 60’s @ KC - will need Sutton playing to take alt lines (so D more honest).  Hinton returning to practice helps already.   EDIT:  With injury report saying he's been limited all week, I have to pass on alt lines.

So that’s 20U and I’d like to add 2U more if possible with Jeudy as long as Sutton / Hinton active and it’s in low 60’s or less.    
 

LONGSHOT TD

Only a couple for now on Friday...

Juwan Johnson +550 / +6000 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) FD - you know the drill.  I don't get why FD sets the line si wide (he’s +300 or less everywhere else), but I'll still take it.

Jelani Woods +550 / +6000 2+(0.8U / 0.2U) FD   @ NYG - currently at +425 on DK.   Not in a position to wait so will take but have a hunch if ppl wait to Sun AM you may get better #’s as IND is the road dog. 

Mike Gesicki +650 / +8500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) FD   @ NE - TeddyB loves the TE and NE will focus on Hill / Waddle  

Mycole Pruitt +950 FD 1U - Still getting 60 percent snaps and almost all the RZ targets / snaps on pass downs. 

Donald Parham +800 FD / +9000 DK (0.8U/0.2U) - still gets the RZ package snaps and targets, I'll still play it.

Andrew Beck +3700 / Jalen Virgil +1800 (0.25U each) FD - Dulcich out, and the top 3 WR's are all hurting, so I'll take a shot.   Freddie Swain competes with Virgil, but he's +490, so no value there.   

 

EDIT:  Here are the other lines I was hoping to see better action on FD/Score than DK, still waiting sadly...

Rashid Shaheed take if +400 or better  @ PHI - or better (both likely need Olave to play to get to that range).   EDIT:  FD is only +310 for now, waiting for sure.

Jordan Akins +600 or better vs. JAX - currently at +425 on DK   Think Score or FD will be better.  EDIT:  FD is sadly only at +380 on Friday, waiting for now.

Richie James +450 or better vs. IND - currently +310 at DK.  See IND CB slot issue in player props.   Think FD or Score will be better.  EDIT:  FD is only +340 on Friday, waiting for now.

 

OK that’s it for now - 7U in ATS/ML, 20.0U in player props and 6U in TD props.    BOL! 

 

Well ATS/ML was brutal but man did the player props and high confidence plays & TD calls work out…

ATS/ML - 1-3, 1U - DEN +13.5 was solid and CAR +3 was unlucky.   But man NYJ -2.5 and MIN ML was way off.   PIT ML & BAL ML left…

PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, 2-0 high-confidence, +9.0U - frankly it was unlucky Richie James didn’t get to 80+.   But +270 alt line & Tyler Conklin 1.5U 50+ at +320 was sweet.   Only regret was not taking his 75+ +850 or Akers sit lines lol.   Still a +9.0U day is nothing to complain about in the end.  
 

LONGSHOT TD - 2-5, +8.8U - took until the end of the games for both but Gesicki +650 and Parham +800 gives another great week for TD props.   
 

I only have the PIT and BAL ML plays left - but I’ll add Isaiah Likely +1100 & Andy Isabella +1700 TD props @ 0.5U each  just to have some skin in the game.   BOL let’s finish off what’s been a great day! 
 

——————

WEEK 17 SNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

38-29-2 ATS, 14-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +33.6U. (-1.0U, 1-2 ATS 0-1 ML Week 17 SNF, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

120-122  BALANCE  +47.0U (+12.0U WEEK 17 SNF  - Now 66-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence & Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

36-145, BALANCE +150.0U (+5.8U Week 17 SNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000  & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800)
 

TOTAL:  +230.6U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 SNF - +16.8U )

 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Pat Friermuth and Mark Andrew's have really low numbers anyone jumping on them?

[adamq]

4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Pat Friermuth and Mark Andrew's have really low numbers anyone jumping on them?

I was thinking about Andrews but he has been awful lately #s wise, and historically isn't great v pitt.. I do like the longshot stabs broncofan just suggested 

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/mark-andrews-vs-steelers-game-logs

Edited January 2, 2023 by adamq

[BobbyPhil1781]

What do the "U" mean next to the numbers? I know it's not "under". 

[SmittyBacall]

27 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

What do the "U" mean next to the numbers? I know it's not "under". 

U is short for “unit”, which is a standard betting wager. So if your standard wager is $10, a U would be $10, 0.5U would be $5, etc. 

[adamq]

30 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

What do the "U" mean next to the numbers? I know it's not "under". 

Units.. To some people 1U equals $100, to others its $10. Easy way to share your bets

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

U is short for “unit”, which is a standard betting wager. So if your standard wager is $10, a U would be $10, 0.5U would be $5, etc. 

 

4 minutes ago, adamq said:

Units.. To some people 1U equals $100, to others its $10. Easy way to share your bets

And to be clear - think of your bankroll as 100U.   I’m pushing my limits by betting 30U in 1 full day slate - yes, that’s putting 30 percent of my bankroll out there.   Until you’re comfortable, really 20U is the max IMO and starting out even 10-15U is a lot.   Bankroll management is what keeps ppl afloat.   It’s even more important than good handicapping skills imo.  

[adamq]

Yes that is definitely key.. for me 20-25% maybe is the most I would risk in any given week of games, if there are a lot of good value bets out there. But as he said 10-15 should be the cap most weeks

Edited January 2, 2023 by adamq

[BobbyPhil1781]

Thanks for the info, everyone. Again, sorry for newb questions. 

I'm also going to be very cautious about my spending especially at first. Just going to do a little here and there. Figure out what works for me then maybe be a little more aggressive next season. I only bet football so I'll get a nice break

[thebestever6]

You're the Goat @Broncofan

[adamq]

17 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

You're the Goat @Broncofan

Sorry if I talked you out of andrews over, but let's go Likely!

[Broncofan]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well ATS/ML was brutal but man did the player props and high confidence plays & TD calls work out…

ATS/ML - 1-3, 1U - DEN +13.5 was solid and CAR +3 was unlucky.   But man NYJ -2.5 and MIN ML was way off.   PIT ML & BAL ML left…

PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, 2-0 high-confidence, +9.0U - frankly it was unlucky Richie James didn’t get to 80+.   But +270 alt line & Tyler Conklin 1.5U 50+ at +320 was sweet.   Only regret was not taking his 75+ +850 or Akers sit lines lol.   Still a +9.0U day is nothing to complain about in the end.  
 

LONGSHOT TD - 2-5, +8.8U - took until the end of the games for both but Gesicki +650 and Parham +800 gives another great week for TD props.   
 

I only have the PIT and BAL ML plays left - but I’ll add Isaiah Likely +1100 & Andy Isabella +1700 TD props @ 0.5U each  just to have some skin in the game.   BOL let’s finish off what’s been a great day! 
 

 

 

6 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

You're the Goat @Broncofan

 

6 hours ago, adamq said:

Sorry if I talked you out of andrews over, but let's go Likely!

 

Went to bed with being out of province, and what a finish - PIT ML for +160, and Isaiah Likely for +1100 0.5U - for a 7.1U SNF profit.   Overall a 23.8U profit on a 35U stake - NOT for the faint of heart, but we'll take it!

__________________________

——————

WEEK 17 SNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

38-29-2 ATS, 15-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +35.2U. (+0.6U, 1-2 ATS 1-1 ML Week 17 SNF, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

120-122  BALANCE  +47.0U (+12.0U WEEK 17 SNF  - Now 66-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence & Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

37-146, BALANCE +155.5U (+11.3U Week 17 MNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000  & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800 & Isaiah Likely +1100)
 

TOTAL:  +237.7U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 MNF - +23.9U )

2020 - +226U, 18% ROI.    2021:  +251U, 27% ROI      2022: 

Edited January 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For MNF only 1 ml play 1 player prop and 2 TD props: 

-BUF ML 2U 

-Joe Mixon o50.5 rush yds 2U & 75+ rush yds +290 1U.  

-Cole Beasley +1200 & Quinton Morris +1200 0.5U each.  

6U risked tonight.   Hoping to finish Week 17 strong.  BOL!

[SmittyBacall]

18 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

The Commanders starting Wentz is absolutely infuriating.

Pittsburgh took care of business, but it might not matter.

If the Bengals win tonight and lock up the AFCN, should I hedge CLE@PIT? CLE current underdogs @PIT, +130 ML.

 

[SmittyBacall]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

-BUF ML 2U 

I will be better the opposite way, my friend. Home field and Joe Burrow is the difference, IMO.

Also, I don't really go for history trends like this, but I think this little doozy is worth sharing: Over the last 10 years, teams that finished with a winning record but were home dogs between 0 and 3 points during the final two weeks of the season are 8-1.