Broncofan Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) On 12/30/2022 at 7:17 AM, Broncofan said: Ok for the weekend several plays stand out (nothing on TD props yet): ATS / ML EARLY DEN +13.5 2U - as long as Jeudy & D guys ok, I’m good with backing DEN post-Hackett. They just keep it closer to KC than ppl expect. CAR +3 - Tampa losing another T. Mismatches everywhere to CAR except the CB - so will take the pts instead of the +140 ML LATE MIN ML +160 - matchups in key places; they’d love to eliminate GB. Wouldn’t have to face them either. Bad Kirk is the risk. If ppl want to go MIN +3.5 can’t argue it. NYJ -2.5 - with a decent QB (ie not Zach Wilson), they hammer mediocre teams - SEA really not the same on D and OL of late. Geno without decent run game having more trouble. The Jets do need Quinnen Williams to play for this to be a confidence play though. SNF PIT ML +130 - BAL O in serious trouble if they can’t run. MNF BUF ML -120 - love CIN but Bills on a mission to have the 1 seed. That’s 7U in 6 plays - have the free 0.2U parley at +7800 with the 2 MIN / PIT ML boosted odds as well. WEEK 17 SUN PLAYER PROPS OK here’s the updated Sunday card: Tyler Conklin o26.5 Rec yds 3U, 50+ Rec yds +320 1.5U DK @ SEA - Sea funnels pass to TE / RB and Mike White loves him. I’m going 1.5U on his 50+ Rec yds alt lines on DK Richie James o37.5 Rec yds 2U DK / 60+ Rec yds +270 / 80+ Rec yds +630 0.5U FD - with IND slot CB Kenny Moore out we’ve seen Lamb, Osborn & Allen go crazy - same deal here, on lower scale; gotta go here. Cam Akers o69.5 rush yds 2U DK @ LAC - LAC still vulnerable and McVay committed to run. No alt lines with risk of gamescript going wrong. Dalvin Cook o71.5 rush yds 2U DK @ GB - GB still has major rush D issues. MIN will pound the ball knowing this (plus Jefferson) EDIT: line moved all way to 76.5 before alt lines came out on FD so alt lines ROI no longer as attractive - just main prop. Rashid Shaheed O36.5 rec yd 2U, unclear on DK/FD alt lines - with the secondary injuries and Landry on IR, I'm confident even with Olave back, that Shaheed should see 5-6 targets, and get past the mid-30's target. If the juice is there, will consider the 50+ prop on DK (doubt FD will have it, but I'll look). Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, FD alt lines pending - same deal here, although PHI is better at TE D overall, of late they've been leaky. Jelani Woods O27.5 rec yds 2U DK - Landon Collins has returned, but the NYG TE D has really missed Xavier McKinney. So this is still worth playing. I suspect there won't be alt lines out, being that Woods in theory is the backup behind Alie-Cox, even though he's their top receiving TE target. EDIT: McKinney surprise return so no alt lines. Jahan Dotson O40.5 rec yds 2U FD - OK, the number is low enough, I'll bite. Wentz doesn't throw deep as much, but he still likes Dotson a lot, so I have to play this. The uncertainty of how much Wentz will go downfield makes the alt lines a pass this week. I still want to see Jerry Jeudy’s prop (injury low ankle issue so likely only 2U play) WAITING PROPS 1 more that aren’t out yet I’m almost certainly going to add: Jerry Jeudy Rec yds 2U if in low 60’s @ KC - will need Sutton playing to take alt lines (so D more honest). Hinton returning to practice helps already. EDIT: With injury report saying he's been limited all week, I have to pass on alt lines. So that’s 20U and I’d like to add 2U more if possible with Jeudy as long as Sutton / Hinton active and it’s in low 60’s or less. LONGSHOT TD Only a couple for now on Friday... Juwan Johnson +550 / +6000 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) FD - you know the drill. I don't get why FD sets the line si wide (he’s +300 or less everywhere else), but I'll still take it. Jelani Woods +550 / +6000 2+(0.8U / 0.2U) FD @ NYG - currently at +425 on DK. Not in a position to wait so will take but have a hunch if ppl wait to Sun AM you may get better #’s as IND is the road dog. Mike Gesicki +650 / +8500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) FD @ NE - TeddyB loves the TE and NE will focus on Hill / Waddle Mycole Pruitt +950 FD 1U - Still getting 60 percent snaps and almost all the RZ targets / snaps on pass downs. Donald Parham +800 FD / +9000 DK (0.8U/0.2U) - still gets the RZ package snaps and targets, I'll still play it. Andrew Beck +3700 / Jalen Virgil +1800 (0.25U each) FD - Dulcich out, and the top 3 WR's are all hurting, so I'll take a shot. Freddie Swain competes with Virgil, but he's +490, so no value there. EDIT: Here are the other lines I was hoping to see better action on FD/Score than DK, still waiting sadly... Rashid Shaheed take if +400 or better @ PHI - or better (both likely need Olave to play to get to that range). EDIT: FD is only +310 for now, waiting for sure. Jordan Akins +600 or better vs. JAX - currently at +425 on DK Think Score or FD will be better. EDIT: FD is sadly only at +380 on Friday, waiting for now. Richie James +450 or better vs. IND - currently +310 at DK. See IND CB slot issue in player props. Think FD or Score will be better. EDIT: FD is only +340 on Friday, waiting for now. OK that’s it for now - 7U in ATS/ML, 20.0U in player props and 6U in TD props. BOL! Well ATS/ML was brutal but man did the player props and high confidence plays & TD calls work out… ATS/ML - 1-3, 1U - DEN +13.5 was solid and CAR +3 was unlucky. But man NYJ -2.5 and MIN ML was way off. PIT ML & BAL ML left… PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, 2-0 high-confidence, +9.0U - frankly it was unlucky Richie James didn’t get to 80+. But +270 alt line & Tyler Conklin 1.5U 50+ at +320 was sweet. Only regret was not taking his 75+ +850 or Akers sit lines lol. Still a +9.0U day is nothing to complain about in the end. LONGSHOT TD - 2-5, +8.8U - took until the end of the games for both but Gesicki +650 and Parham +800 gives another great week for TD props. I only have the PIT and BAL ML plays left - but I’ll add Isaiah Likely +1100 & Andy Isabella +1700 TD props @ 0.5U each just to have some skin in the game. BOL let’s finish off what’s been a great day! —————— WEEK 17 SNF ATS/ ML & RACE 38-29-2 ATS, 14-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +33.6U. (-1.0U, 1-2 ATS 0-1 ML Week 17 SNF, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo) PLAYER PROPS 120-122 BALANCE +47.0U (+12.0U WEEK 17 SNF - Now 66-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel & Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence & Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 36-145, BALANCE +150.0U (+5.8U Week 17 SNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700; Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF; Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000 & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800) TOTAL: +230.6U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 SNF - +16.8U ) Edited January 2, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Pat Friermuth and Mark Andrew's have really low numbers anyone jumping on them? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: Pat Friermuth and Mark Andrew's have really low numbers anyone jumping on them? I was thinking about Andrews but he has been awful lately #s wise, and historically isn't great v pitt.. I do like the longshot stabs broncofan just suggested https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/mark-andrews-vs-steelers-game-logs Edited January 2, 2023 by adamq 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 What do the "U" mean next to the numbers? I know it's not "under". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 27 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: What do the "U" mean next to the numbers? I know it's not "under". U is short for “unit”, which is a standard betting wager. So if your standard wager is $10, a U would be $10, 0.5U would be $5, etc. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 30 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said: What do the "U" mean next to the numbers? I know it's not "under". Units.. To some people 1U equals $100, to others its $10. Easy way to share your bets 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: U is short for “unit”, which is a standard betting wager. So if your standard wager is $10, a U would be $10, 0.5U would be $5, etc. 4 minutes ago, adamq said: Units.. To some people 1U equals $100, to others its $10. Easy way to share your bets And to be clear - think of your bankroll as 100U. I’m pushing my limits by betting 30U in 1 full day slate - yes, that’s putting 30 percent of my bankroll out there. Until you’re comfortable, really 20U is the max IMO and starting out even 10-15U is a lot. Bankroll management is what keeps ppl afloat. It’s even more important than good handicapping skills imo. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) Yes that is definitely key.. for me 20-25% maybe is the most I would risk in any given week of games, if there are a lot of good value bets out there. But as he said 10-15 should be the cap most weeks Edited January 2, 2023 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyPhil1781 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 Thanks for the info, everyone. Again, sorry for newb questions. I'm also going to be very cautious about my spending especially at first. Just going to do a little here and there. Figure out what works for me then maybe be a little more aggressive next season. I only bet football so I'll get a nice break 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 You're the Goat @Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 17 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: You're the Goat @Broncofan Sorry if I talked you out of andrews over, but let's go Likely! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: Well ATS/ML was brutal but man did the player props and high confidence plays & TD calls work out… ATS/ML - 1-3, 1U - DEN +13.5 was solid and CAR +3 was unlucky. But man NYJ -2.5 and MIN ML was way off. PIT ML & BAL ML left… PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, 2-0 high-confidence, +9.0U - frankly it was unlucky Richie James didn’t get to 80+. But +270 alt line & Tyler Conklin 1.5U 50+ at +320 was sweet. Only regret was not taking his 75+ +850 or Akers sit lines lol. Still a +9.0U day is nothing to complain about in the end. LONGSHOT TD - 2-5, +8.8U - took until the end of the games for both but Gesicki +650 and Parham +800 gives another great week for TD props. I only have the PIT and BAL ML plays left - but I’ll add Isaiah Likely +1100 & Andy Isabella +1700 TD props @ 0.5U each just to have some skin in the game. BOL let’s finish off what’s been a great day! 6 hours ago, thebestever6 said: You're the Goat @Broncofan 6 hours ago, adamq said: Sorry if I talked you out of andrews over, but let's go Likely! Went to bed with being out of province, and what a finish - PIT ML for +160, and Isaiah Likely for +1100 0.5U - for a 7.1U SNF profit. Overall a 23.8U profit on a 35U stake - NOT for the faint of heart, but we'll take it! __________________________ —————— WEEK 17 SNF ATS/ ML & RACE 38-29-2 ATS, 15-16 ML/RACE, BALANCE +35.2U. (+0.6U, 1-2 ATS 1-1 ML Week 17 SNF, Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo) PLAYER PROPS 120-122 BALANCE +47.0U (+12.0U WEEK 17 SNF - Now 66-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel & Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence & Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb & Richie James & Tyler Conklin) LONGSHOT TD PROPS 37-146, BALANCE +155.5U (+11.3U Week 17 MNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700 & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700; Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF; Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600 & Mercedes Lewis +1800 & Dante Pettis +1000 & Week 17 Mike Gesicki +650 & Donald Parham +800 & Isaiah Likely +1100) TOTAL: +237.7U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 MNF - +23.9U ) 2020 - +226U, 18% ROI. 2021: +251U, 27% ROI 2022: Edited January 2, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 For MNF only 1 ml play 1 player prop and 2 TD props: -BUF ML 2U -Joe Mixon o50.5 rush yds 2U & 75+ rush yds +290 1U. -Cole Beasley +1200 & Quinton Morris +1200 0.5U each. 6U risked tonight. Hoping to finish Week 17 strong. BOL! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 18 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: The Commanders starting Wentz is absolutely infuriating. Pittsburgh took care of business, but it might not matter. If the Bengals win tonight and lock up the AFCN, should I hedge CLE@PIT? CLE current underdogs @PIT, +130 ML. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 2, 2023 Share Posted January 2, 2023 7 hours ago, Broncofan said: -BUF ML 2U I will be better the opposite way, my friend. Home field and Joe Burrow is the difference, IMO. Also, I don't really go for history trends like this, but I think this little doozy is worth sharing: Over the last 10 years, teams that finished with a winning record but were home dogs between 0 and 3 points during the final two weeks of the season are 8-1. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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