adamq Posted June 21, 2023 Share Posted June 21, 2023 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Secondly, if you’re into narratives, I think the NFL and NFL media want Burrow to win. He’s hip, he’s cool, he rivals Mahomes, and everyone is always looking to crown someone new. It’s just good for business. This really does matter quite a bit. These awards are all about the narratives, and with so many of the big name QBs of the last decade flaming out (brady, rodgers, russ) they need guys to take their place.. Burrow is ridiculously efficient, is loved by the media, and as you said should put up monster numbers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted June 24, 2023 Share Posted June 24, 2023 On 6/21/2023 at 11:16 AM, adamq said: This really does matter quite a bit. These awards are all about the narratives, and with so many of the big name QBs of the last decade flaming out (brady, rodgers, russ) they need guys to take their place.. Burrow is ridiculously efficient, is loved by the media, and as you said should put up monster numbers Yea its funny that there is this rivalry with Mahomes/Burrow but both are wildly loved by the non-KC/Cincy fans whereas Brady was so hated and Peyton so loved Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Anyone like any division exact orders, straight forecasts or dual forecasts? Kind of like KC-LAC-Den-LVR for +450 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
agarcia34 Posted July 25, 2023 Share Posted July 25, 2023 Haven’t bet it yet and haven’t done so because the line will continue to go in my favor so I’m just gonna wait in hopes it get to +4 or 3.5. Love Steelers +3 against the Niners. Love Pats +4.5 as well both lines should move in my favor as it gets closer to opening week. Not much else in week 1 that I really like. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted July 26, 2023 Share Posted July 26, 2023 (edited) On 6/20/2023 at 12:28 PM, SmittyBacall said: Burrow is winning MVP. No need to flirt with value. On 6/21/2023 at 9:37 AM, SmittyBacall said: To expand on this, I wouldn’t make this bet if I didn’t think Burrow was capable of posting MVP numbers. He was a finalist in 2022 even after he started the year horribly slow (coming off injury), and his supporting cast has only improved in my opinion. For the first time in his career he may actually have competent pass pro in addition to elite weapons - it’s a recipe for massive production. Secondly, if you’re into narratives, I think the NFL and NFL media want Burrow to win. He’s hip, he’s cool, he rivals Mahomes, and everyone is always looking to crown someone new. It’s just good for business. On 6/21/2023 at 11:16 AM, adamq said: This really does matter quite a bit. These awards are all about the narratives, and with so many of the big name QBs of the last decade flaming out (brady, rodgers, russ) they need guys to take their place.. Burrow is ridiculously efficient, is loved by the media, and as you said should put up monster numbers In that vein, I think the NFL would be fine with either Burrow or Herbert winning MVP - but PR-wise they want to create a young QB rivalry with Mahomes to mirror Peyton vs. Brady. Those 2 are the obvious young bucks (along with Josh Allen, but he's already won his). Edited July 26, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 (edited) I've taken 3 player props on DK, recognizing that unders are far more profitable (but they're no fun - hence why Vegas makes $), i feel confident enough to put 2U each, ppl shouldn't be surprised about 2 of the 3 selections: 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown O5.5 TD's 2.2U to win 2U - yes, he got 6 TD's last year. But there are 3 reasons to be optimistic he'll crush that # this year - first and foremost, he scored 6x, but also was tackled inside the 5 7x last year (SEVEN). Next, you take away TJ Hockenson, and you're removing a ton of RZ targets. Finally, he played in 16 games, but in my estimation he was hobbled in 2 of them - so we're not getting a 17-game sample size (which is unrealistic to bank on, but why I like 2022's deeper #'s to project 6+ for 2023). Then you add in that Jameson Williams is suspended for 6 games, and it makes this a pretty easy prop to back. 2. Jerry Jeudy O5.5 TD's +100 2U - another guy who got 6 TD's last year, but who has reasons to be optimistic he'll get 6+ again. First & foremost, he's now the X receiver in the Payton O - and his 5-game 2H explosion coincided with being moved to the X full-time. Next, we get the deep metrics that Jeudy is top 10 in 1st-look target rate (being the first look as a target) from Russell Wilson. Finally, 2022's stats are depressed by the absolute incompetence of Nathaniel Hackett for that O, but also the fact Jeudy suffered a HAS on the first play of the TEN game, and missed 3 games, and was hobbled for at least 2-3 more. Now, the injury bug could always hit again (although HAS is not a long-term predictor for more injury). But you give me O5.5 at +100? Sign. Me. Up. 3. Juwan Johnson O3.5 TD's 2.2U to win 2U - this should be the least surprising prop bet for ppl who know me. The guy is the move TE for NO, and a total mismatch. He may never put up huge #'s, but he's still going to be their top RZ mismatch along with Olave. And let's not forget that Foster Moreau, while a great story, is still coming off chemotherapy - and being sluggish (and more of the blocking TE guy) in year 1 is still likely. That number is just so low, it's easy to back for a 2U win play. As always, the injury bug is the X factor, but these all seem worth 2U win plays. BOL! Edited July 29, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 On 7/25/2023 at 3:44 PM, agarcia34 said: Haven’t bet it yet and haven’t done so because the line will continue to go in my favor so I’m just gonna wait in hopes it get to +4 or 3.5. Love Steelers +3 against the Niners. Love Pats +4.5 as well both lines should move in my favor as it gets closer to opening week. Not much else in week 1 that I really like. Steelers are 1 I'm looking at too. Hopefully a 4 comes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 11 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Steelers are 1 I'm looking at too. Hopefully a 4 comes I like Pitt too week 1. Pitt and Detroit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Rainmaker90 said: I like Pitt too week 1. Pitt and Detroit Detroit is an interesting one. Definitely prefer the hook though. KC always seems to struggle to cover bigger numbers but i feel like Week 1 favors coaching more than most weeks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 43 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Detroit is an interesting one. Definitely prefer the hook though. KC always seems to struggle to cover bigger numbers but i feel like Week 1 favors coaching more than most weeks KC does not cover as much as people would think. Seems like a lot of points to give especially week 1 vs a descent team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 (edited) 18 hours ago, Broncofan said: I've taken 3 player props on DK, recognizing that unders are far more profitable (but they're no fun - hence why Vegas makes $), i feel confident enough to put 2U each, ppl shouldn't be surprised about 2 of the 3 selections: 1. Amon-Ra St. Brown O5.5 TD's 2.2U to win 2U - yes, he got 6 TD's last year. But there are 3 reasons to be optimistic he'll crush that # this year - first and foremost, he scored 6x, but also was tackled inside the 5 7x last year (SEVEN). Next, you take away TJ Hockenson, and you're removing a ton of RZ targets. Finally, he played in 16 games, but in my estimation he was hobbled in 2 of them - so we're not getting a 17-game sample size (which is unrealistic to bank on, but why I like 2022's deeper #'s to project 6+ for 2023). Then you add in that Jameson Williams is suspended for 6 games, and it makes this a pretty easy prop to back. 2. Jerry Jeudy O5.5 TD's +100 2U - another guy who got 6 TD's last year, but who has reasons to be optimistic he'll get 6+ again. First & foremost, he's now the X receiver in the Payton O - and his 5-game 2H explosion coincided with being moved to the X full-time. Next, we get the deep metrics that Jeudy is top 10 in 1st-look target rate (being the first look as a target) from Russell Wilson. Finally, 2022's stats are depressed by the absolute incompetence of Nathaniel Hackett for that O, but also the fact Jeudy suffered a HAS on the first play of the TEN game, and missed 3 games, and was hobbled for at least 2-3 more. Now, the injury bug could always hit again (although HAS is not a long-term predictor for more injury). But you give me O5.5 at +100? Sign. Me. Up. 3. Juwan Johnson O3.5 TD's 2.2U to win 2U - this should be the least surprising prop bet for ppl who know me. The guy is the move TE for NO, and a total mismatch. He may never put up huge #'s, but he's still going to be their top RZ mismatch along with Olave. And let's not forget that Foster Moreau, while a great story, is still coming off chemotherapy - and being sluggish (and more of the blocking TE guy) in year 1 is still likely. That number is just so low, it's easy to back for a 2U win play. As always, the injury bug is the X factor, but these all seem worth 2U win plays. BOL! FWIW Fanduel has Jeudy at +130...ok, can't resist the fanboy in me, I dropped 2U more lol. Maybe just stick with 2U recommendation wise, but can't resist EV... Edited July 29, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: FWIW Fanduel has Jeudy at +130...ok, can't resist the fanboy in me, I dropped 2U more lol. Maybe just stick with 2U recommendation wise, but can't resist EV... Its tough betting too many units on a player prop just because of injury Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Raiders last place in the West is -130 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 1 hour ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Its tough betting too many units on a player prop just because of injury Absolutely it’s why I set a 2U max bet as a recommendation for season long. Plus don’t like tying up $ for that long Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted July 30, 2023 Share Posted July 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Broncofan said: Absolutely it’s why I set a 2U max bet as a recommendation for season long. Plus don’t like tying up $ for that long I dont tend to tie up in player props but ill play team props mostly + money ones Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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