Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

37 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I needed the boys input & I didn't get any so I went ahead & hit Roschon (0.25u), Gus (0.5u), Odell (0.25u), Kirk (0.5u), & Ferguson (0.5u). 

all your reasons for picking them made sense I just worry about O'Dell but can't blame me at those odds. 

Edited September 15, 2023 by thebestever6

[thebestever6]

Sky Moore is at 25.5 on fanduel and 30.5 on bet365 its got me pondering lol. He's also 31.5 on draftkings.

Edited September 16, 2023 by thebestever6

[Broncofan]

19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

TD props I like for this week. Would love to hear some more thoughts before I place any of these! 

Roschon Johnson +500 (I think he overtakes Herbert for RB1 this game) 

Tyler Lockett +190 (had 2 EZ targets last week, SEA should come out hungry on offense) 

Gus Edwards +190 (Hill took these carries last week, but I still expect Gus to be that guy [and so does Vegas])

Nick Chubb +120 (any time I can get Chubb at +EV here I like it) 

Odell Beckham +400 (led Ravens WRs in snaps last week; crazy number) 

Anthony Richardson +180 (Vegas hasn't quite adjusted to ARich's potential short TDs in a Steichen offense

Christian Kirk +200 (just feels like a bounce back spot for him, KC is strongest on the perimeter)

Jerick McKinnon +325 (led KC RBs in RZ snaps last week, the touches are coming)

Jake Ferguson +350 (huge target share last week, NYJ is pass funnel defense to TEs)  

Jimmy Graham +650 (Panthers strength is on the perimeter & I expect Jimmy to be a RZ specialist this year) 

Jordan Akins +1100 (Watson's former safety valve in HOU, I really like these long odds for a short RZ score)

 

Obv I like Roschon I got him earlier at +600.    Re: Akins the tough part is Njoku & Harrison Bryant get more work.   I’d probably take a stab at Bryant with similar odds TBH.  A-Rich I like the most of the +200 range plays.   
 

FWIW better to @users you want opinions on.  Way too easy to get lost in the thread volume.  
 

 

[Broncofan]

I’m adding Isaiah Hodgins O29.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ +260 1U / 70+ +580 0.5U FD & TD +500 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U on DK.   He’s a top 3 guy and a big target with prior chemistry with Danny Jones.  The line IMO is an overreaction to the NYG-DAL massacre, and the 2H of ARI-WAS having a lot of rain, and Bienemy/Rivera going conservative with a lead and Howell dinged up and 3 TO's in 1H from the O.     

In a get-right game I’d be shocked if he didn’t get 1-2 looks inside the 10 if not the EZ, and I have him at 4/50 as my projection, so I have to take those lines.    

Edited September 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Sky Moore is at 25.5 on fanduel and 30.5 on bet365 its got me pondering lol. He's also 31.5 on draftkings.

I don't know how you can feel good about putting $ on him - with Kelce out, he couldn't get a large target share, and now Kelce's back.   

I get it's only year 2, but given that Moore couldn't beat out MVS or Juju as a rookie (who looks cooked by many reports in NE), and his total invisibility after a full offseason and TC working  with the starters, I would be very reluctant to put any $ on Skyy.   His rookie year plus not being able to command week 1 target share with Kelce out, IMO it's a total stay-away.  Let him prove there's something to back here.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

On 9/13/2023 at 10:29 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Anyways, here are my favorite TEASER lines (6.5pt) of the week. Would love any input on these! 

• ATL +8.5 (vGB)
• LAC +4.5 (vTEN)
• SEA/DET O41 
• JAX +10.5 (vKC) 
• NYG +3 (@ARI) 
• SF -0.5 (@LAR) 
• WAS/DEN U46 

 

I really like banking on those three home teams to cover anywhere from a FG to a FG+TD+. I expect Seattle to bounce back against this Detroit defense & I expect the Lions to continue to exploit the same problems LA did. I really don't see NYG starting 0-2 with a matchup against Joshua Dobbs, 49ers have an impeccable track record against the Rams, & the Washington/Denver matchup squares up two really good defenses against two slow-paced offenses with mistake-prone QBs. 

These are all really great bets. I am not sure I can get behind the jags though, but I get it. Their defense is just really bad and Andy Reid with extra time is always deadly. Love the rest of them though. I will do a RR with two teams of all of the rest. Great stuff. 

[N4L]

On 9/14/2023 at 7:09 AM, Broncofan said:

Nico Collins O45.5 rec yds, 75+ yds +320 1U, 100+ yds +800 0.5U DK - soaked up 11 targets, Noah Brown is out (he was #3 guy anyways), and an IND team that's decimated in the secondary.    Tank Dell faces Kenny Moore, so I'm all over this.  I had him projected for 6/65+, so such a boom play.  100 is probably a bridge too far, but it's +800...   #1 confidence play so far.

NEW FRI AM - Sam Laporta O34.5 rec yds 2U - SEA remains vulnerable to TE's, and DET showed they are more than willing to get Laporta both playing a lot of snaps, and sending him targets.  The only reason I'm not going alt lines is because Laporta's ADOT wasn't high, he's in the short-areas, so he'd have to start getting more seam routes / vertical action to trust 50+/75+.  I think it's coming, but better to see evidence of this, let's stay at a very manageable # for now.

 

LATE

Tony Pollard O19.5 rec 2U, 50+ yds +500 1U - NYJ pass D we know about, they funnel to TE & RB's - and DAL is going to want to get him in space.   My #4 confidence play

Jahan Dotson O43.5 rec yds 2U DK - he was well on his way to beating this line with 31 yds in the 1H (and WAS trailing), before rain / gamescript changed things up in the 2H.   To make sure the 2H conservative gameplan isn't a new lasting change, I'll avoid the alt lines for now.

SNF

Rhamondre Stephenson O18.5 rec yds 2U (already at 22.5 wow), 50+ yds +500 1U (already at +425, no 75 alt line) DK - I won't lie, I'm super tempted to take his O53.5 rush yd prop as well, but I absolutely trust his 18% target share usage with that NE WR corps, and Mac Jones' willingness to check down.   #2 confidence play.

MNF

NEW FRI AM - Rasheed Shaheed O36.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ yds +180 & 75+ yds +500 0.5U - Posting this now so ppl can take advantage of what I think will be a rising line.   Without Jaycee Horn, CAR's pass D takes a fairly big hit.   Don't let the low pass yard totals fool you, ATL plays a mega run-first O, NO showed they're willing to go pass-heavy with their OL issues and talent - Shaheed is clearly their 2nd best WR (sorry Mike Thomas).    May only take 1 play to get the main line.  My #3 confidence play for the week. 

Tailing all of these! I was already all over the Nico and Shaheed ones. Shaheed seemed to have a great connection with Carr, he got a ton of targets early in the game. He was featured. It took Olave a little bit to get going. I think teams will focus on Olave and Shaheed will make them pay. LOVE the alt lines because he is just so damn explosive. Nico should see easy volume. 

Others props I LOVE: 

Gibbs over 38 rushing yards - Monty over 53 rush yards - Seattle's run D has been a major, major issue for a few years. The lions are going to run it down their throats. Both guys should have no problem going over these short numbers. I think they could easily eclipse 200 on the ground between the two of them. Will play the alt lines as well.

Bijan over 55 rush yards - Green Bay's defense is soft until proven otherwise. Teams run the ball on them with great success. Bijan is a special player who could have a coming out party this weekend. Dont get it twisted, he is the RB1 there. He will get 18 touches. Will play his rush + rec props. Will hammer the alt lines. 

Justin Herbert over 278 yards - The titans have a pass funnel defense. Ekeler probably out. The titans arent going to run the ball very much. This is the week for them to push the ball downfield. I expect multiple deep shots from Herbert. 

Keenan Allen over 69.5 yards - He is herbert's number 1. They may throw it 50 times. He could easily have a 120+ yard game. Smash

Deebo over 45 rec yards - Deebo owns the rams. He had 55 yards without "doing much" in a game where the niners were up by 20 by the end of the first quarter. They are going to get him going this week. He will have over 100 all purpose yards. 

Couldnt find Josh Uche to get a sack, but MIA's OL is bad and the patriots pass rush is unreal. They are going to get after Tua. I may add the patriots as a teaser leg. 

Other bets:

Lions team total over 26.5. LIS, the lions are going to run the ball effectively. They will lean on seattle. They are at home, which is the spot to bet on Goff having a good game. They have extra time to figure out what didn't work last week. 

Lions - 4 - Both of Seattle's tackles are down. Lions front is better than it was last year. Their secondary is pretty solid. I think their defense will do enough to make this a full touchdown game. I thought seattle was overrated last year, and I think they might just be a bad football team right now. 

Niners team total over 26.5 - deebo, cmc, aiyuk, kittle. Purdy is legit. There is no denying it now. The rams defense is young and has a bunch of nobodies. The niners will score a lot of points. 

Tampa Bay -2 - The bears are that bad. The tampa defense is fantastic. People seem to have forgotten that. They still have a lot of guys on that defense who carried them to a SB victory. Secondary is fantastic, their run defense has been otherworldly in the past when vita vea has been healthy. The bears STINK. they arent fixing it in a week when they had all offseason to fix it. This is a short number. Tampa is a competent team. The bears are pathetic. I just dont see a path for them. 

 

That is.... a lot more bets than I usually like to make. I usually try and find 3/4 I like and play them for higher amounts. I cannot ignore the early season soft lines though. I am taking a shot. 

[Rainmaker90]

Baltimore is without Humphrey, Williams , Linderbaum and Stanley and it’s still at 3? Fine by me. 
 

I had MD last night, Penn st and Tenn today. 
 

NFL so far is 

Pitt +2 

Cinci -3

Mia ML

 

Nici Collins props 

Chase 100 yards and a score and that mixed in with a Diggs and St. Brown parlay 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

Tailing all of these! I was already all over the Nico and Shaheed ones. Shaheed seemed to have a great connection with Carr, he got a ton of targets early in the game. He was featured. It took Olave a little bit to get going. I think teams will focus on Olave and Shaheed will make them pay. LOVE the alt lines because he is just so damn explosive. Nico should see easy volume. 

Others props I LOVE: 

Gibbs over 38 rushing yards - Monty over 53 rush yards - Seattle's run D has been a major, major issue for a few years. The lions are going to run it down their throats. Both guys should have no problem going over these short numbers. I think they could easily eclipse 200 on the ground between the two of them. Will play the alt lines as well.

Bijan over 55 rush yards - Green Bay's defense is soft until proven otherwise. Teams run the ball on them with great success. Bijan is a special player who could have a coming out party this weekend. Dont get it twisted, he is the RB1 there. He will get 18 touches. Will play his rush + rec props. Will hammer the alt lines. 

Justin Herbert over 278 yards - The titans have a pass funnel defense. Ekeler probably out. The titans arent going to run the ball very much. This is the week for them to push the ball downfield. I expect multiple deep shots from Herbert. 

Keenan Allen over 69.5 yards - He is herbert's number 1. They may throw it 50 times. He could easily have a 120+ yard game. Smash

Deebo over 45 rec yards - Deebo owns the rams. He had 55 yards without "doing much" in a game where the niners were up by 20 by the end of the first quarter. They are going to get him going this week. He will have over 100 all purpose yards. 

Couldnt find Josh Uche to get a sack, but MIA's OL is bad and the patriots pass rush is unreal. They are going to get after Tua. I may add the patriots as a teaser leg. 

Other bets:

Lions team total over 26.5. LIS, the lions are going to run the ball effectively. They will lean on seattle. They are at home, which is the spot to bet on Goff having a good game. They have extra time to figure out what didn't work last week. 

Lions - 4 - Both of Seattle's tackles are down. Lions front is better than it was last year. Their secondary is pretty solid. I think their defense will do enough to make this a full touchdown game. I thought seattle was overrated last year, and I think they might just be a bad football team right now. 

Niners team total over 26.5 - deebo, cmc, aiyuk, kittle. Purdy is legit. There is no denying it now. The rams defense is young and has a bunch of nobodies. The niners will score a lot of points. 

Tampa Bay -2 - The bears are that bad. The tampa defense is fantastic. People seem to have forgotten that. They still have a lot of guys on that defense who carried them to a SB victory. Secondary is fantastic, their run defense has been otherworldly in the past when vita vea has been healthy. The bears STINK. they arent fixing it in a week when they had all offseason to fix it. This is a short number. Tampa is a competent team. The bears are pathetic. I just dont see a path for them. 

 

That is.... a lot more bets than I usually like to make. I usually try and find 3/4 I like and play them for higher amounts. I cannot ignore the early season soft lines though. I am taking a shot. 

Love the DET RB / ATL run props.   And absolutely back Herbert pass yards as a play.  And Allen as a correlation.  
 

I lean your way on game props but I’m staying off CHI/TB.    Agree with your D call but the news Baker had the Viking signals figured out gives me pause esp with their OL injuries.   TAM D is definitely their best part just the TO’s really swung that game.   So just passing there.  

Edited September 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

So if Amari Cooper goes out, then Cedric Tillman likely comes in and takes work (David Bell too).  In RZ this likely creates 12 formation looks.  Cedric Tillman +1400 / +2000 2+ &  Harrison Bryant is +1200 / +20000 2+ & are fair 0.4U/0.1U plays for MNF if Cooper’s out.  

Edited September 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

34 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

So if Amari Cooper goes out, then Cedric Tillman likely comes in and takes work (David Bell too).  In RZ this likely creates 12 formation looks.  Cedric Tillman +1400 / +2000 2+ &  Harrison Bryant is +1200 / +20000 2+ & are fair 0.4U/0.1U plays for MNF if Cooper’s out.  

do we just put them in now to get them at those odds or do we wait to hear the news of him not playing. 

[stl4life07]

An interesting bet for me is to parlay Bills ML with Giants ML + Barley Anytime TD which is +210 on DK (+316 with the boost).

What do y’all think of that?

Oh and btw you can get Barkley Anytime TD at +100 on DK which I think is insane value going up against a bad football team in the Cards. 

Edited September 16, 2023 by stl4life07

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

do we just put them in now to get them at those odds or do we wait to hear the news of him not playing. 

If you wait - odds drop a ton.  If Cooper plays you’re likely donating with Bryant; Tillman likely inactive and voids.   I don’t mind taking the risk but that’s the issue. 

[Tank4Drake]

My bet of the week. Pretty confident in four of these, not so much Godwin. 

[SaveOurSonics]

15 hours ago, N4L said:

These are all really great bets. I am not sure I can get behind the jags though, but I get it. Their defense is just really bad and Andy Reid with extra time is always deadly. Love the rest of them though. I will do a RR with two teams of all of the rest. Great stuff. 

I might recommend leaving out that SEA/DET O41 line tbh. With Seattle having both of their OTs out again, it could be another long day for that offense. I also expect Seattle's defense to buckle down a bit relative to last week.