N4L Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 39 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Jerry Jeudy (already on O52.5 rec yds 2U, now 54.5) - added 75+ rec yds +200 & 100+ - likewise, just can't resist taking Jeudy against the CHI D. What do you think about Perine this week? Feels like his downhill style should be effective this week in both rushing + receiving. He has been effective when he has gotten touches. I dont love to bet on iffy usage but I guess I am just slightly surprised he isnt getting more run. Jeudy just hasnt gotten going. You are right though, this could be the week. Quote LAR ML +100 @ IND - this IMO is an overreaction to IND's win over BAL, and LAR losing to a great CIN D, and a terrific adjustment by CIN on O. IND doesn't provide the same kind of pass coverage and pass D problems, which sets up great for Stafford, Puca & Atwell to have a bounce-back game. I am with you on this one, but I will also add the over in tutu and puka rec yards. Stafford is balling and the IND corners are terrible until further notice. The fact the ravens couldnt take advantage was a big red flag. Everyone else has had their way with them. Love this one. Great stuff. Quote Raheem Mostert O51.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +300 1U, 100+ +900 0.5U DK - please, Raheem, be healthy for the game. I imagine this is partly due to Devon Achane's stellar 2H performance - but keep in mind Mostert is stil the 70-30 guy (Achane taking over most of the work in 2H coincided with MIA being 30+ pts ahead). Love this one. My book's alt lines arent as favorable though. 75+ is like +150 or something. I am now switching books. Glad I actually looked at that one. Seems like I havent been getting quite the favorable alt lines! smh. We have still been cashing big time though so its hard to feel too bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 23 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Bijan O25.5 Receiving (1.2u) - I will continue to love this line for Bijan. Dumping it off to him is a clear desire for this offense & I trust him to break one off. His O/U Receptions is 4.5(!) which makes this an easy hit for me. Staying away from rushing in a game where the Falcons aren't favored (might become a pattern for me) but I think the receiving line can hit regardless of game script. Love this one. Feels like a good time to share one of my resources: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/JAC/teambreakdown/standard You can see what position groups have done against defenses. So, we can see that the jags have given up a ton of receptions to RBs, which means we should absolutely smash this prop considering its friggen bijan robinson. I also love the over 4.5 rec for +135. Seems like good value under these circumstances. I know you took the carries prop but the jags have been pretty stingy on the ground. I also think London (44.5 yards) and Engram (44.5 yards). London is their clear #1 WR. Pitts doesnt look right to me, he is not himself yet. London is a big play WR with great ball skills. This one shouldnt be that hard. Engram gets some designed touches. Lots of screens. He is a load to bring down. The Jags should get him going this week imo. Laporta carved the falcons up last week. ATL will surely focus on stopping Ridley, Oliver is fantastic and I expect him to shadow Ridley this week. That should mean the jags look elsewhere for receiving production and engram and kirk will be the beneficiaries. Lawrence has been playing great. The breakout is coming. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 17 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: More props from Bengals @ Titans I like Joe Mixon UNDER 53.5 rushing yards - Simply put, and as evidenced by last Monday, our running game sucks. And while Mixon will see the overwhelming majority of RB snaps, and could possibly reach 15+ carries on Sunday in a winning effort, I don't expect him to do much at all versus an elite run stuffing unit in Tennessee. I think he averages 3 YPC or less. Tee Higgins over 58.5 receiving yards - Had maybe the worst game of his pro career last week, so I expect a bounce back game here against a pass funneling defense. The alluring match up here is Higgins versus Roger McCreary - it's well established that the Bengals love scheming the towering Higgins against miniscule corners to take deep shot (see Higgins vs. McCreary 2022 or Higgins vs. Jack/Marcus Jones (NE) 2022). And to top it all off Higgins is a Tennessee native and will want to show out in front of friends and family after last weeks debacle. Also worth sharing Higgins' two career games @ Tennessee: 2022 - 7 rec, 114 yards, 1 TD 2022 (playoffs) - 7 rec, 96 yards What do you think of the bengals ML this weekend? I think it might be one of my favorite bets. Titans OL is garbage. Tannehill has been bad. Cincy has a great defense. The bengals' strengths on offense play right into the titans weaknesses. Seems like the line should be 5-7 points, but we can get them on the ML for like -130. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 30 minutes ago, N4L said: What do you think about Perine this week? Feels like his downhill style should be effective this week in both rushing + receiving. He has been effective when he has gotten touches. I dont love to bet on iffy usage but I guess I am just slightly surprised he isnt getting more run. Jeudy just hasnt gotten going. You are right though, this could be the week. I am with you on this one, but I will also add the over in tutu and puka rec yards. Stafford is balling and the IND corners are terrible until further notice. The fact the ravens couldnt take advantage was a big red flag. Everyone else has had their way with them. Love this one. Great stuff. Love this one. My book's alt lines arent as favorable though. 75+ is like +150 or something. I am now switching books. Glad I actually looked at that one. Seems like I havent been getting quite the favorable alt lines! smh. We have still been cashing big time though so its hard to feel too bad. Re: Perine, he really is the pass-down guy. Jaleel Mclaughlin is the guy they want to get more touches. I know you're wondering about taking a blow-out scenario, but I'm just so averse to taking non-primary guys for player props (if you're talking TD's, then Mclaughlin provides the best value for the price IMO). Re: Jeudy, it's his hammy. It's probably finally OK now. As long as he doesn't re-tweek it, we should see big things (ironically games we are losing soundly, probably an even bigger ceiling - but as we play CHI & NYJ, I suspect the lines will be higher by then, too). I am with you on LAR receiving props vs. IND. Just comes a time where I draw a line on how much I'm playing. Tutu & Puca would have been in my 11-15 range of players (but at 3.5U each, I can't go that far - FWIW, Pittman & Collins join them in that "next" tier of confidence after my top 8 plays). 2 late-game slate plays I'll consider if it's going well and I can stomach the risk: -Rhamondre Stephenson O17.5 rec yds - this should be a Rhamondre catch-up script, but as I said before, it should have been the last 2 weeks. That brings the spectre that OC Bill O'Brien simply doesn't want the RB to get a lot of pass work. Crazy, I know. -Jakobi Meyers rec yd props (not out yet) - LV funnels their work though Davante Adams, Meyers & Josh Jacobs. That's it. So I'll take the prop if it's set at low-50's or lower. Waiting to see what line they come up. Frankly though, the late game slate kinda stinks. It sucks that Mike Williams is out, books finally caught on that Donald Parham at +500 - +600 was such free $ over the long run. Both he and Robbie Bell are sub +300 now (LOOOOOL @ Bell being that low). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 18 hours ago, Broncofan said: With him expected to play I have to take David Montgomery O45.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ rush yds +440 1U DK - this one is a roll of the dice on Monty's health. If he's even close to 95 percent, with GB's run D and DET's OL, he should smash 75+ with 15 carries. It's really just a Q of whether they use him that much. But he's gone 15-122, 14-61, 10-42 (playing way behind early), 22-69 & 11-103 on FAR worse OL in DET. I used the 0.2U max 50 percent boost to get Monty's 75+ alt line from +400 to +440 as it's my last addition and the boost came after. YOLO play for sure. That's a total of 11U on today's card - 1U on DET ML (7-pt lead auto-win DK), 8U on 3 player props (Monty above, Jayden Reed O37.5 rec yds & Luke Musgrave O33.5 rec yds 2U & 50+ alt line) & 2U for 3 TD props (Goff, Bam Knight for 0.5U each, and Dontayvion Wicks for 1U), so 11U on both sides, for what I'm hoping is a great game and at least 1 pt where DET leads by 7+. BOL! Bang! Could/would have played it up to 100+ alt without the thigh bruise… but a wins a win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 4 hours ago, N4L said: What do you think of the bengals ML this weekend? I think it might be one of my favorite bets. Titans OL is garbage. Tannehill has been bad. Cincy has a great defense. The bengals' strengths on offense play right into the titans weaknesses. Seems like the line should be 5-7 points, but we can get them on the ML for like -130. I would like it a lot more if TEN was favoured -2.5 or -1.5. Having said that, I feel confident going in we come out with the W. The defense rounded into form last week and shouldn’t give up much of anything to TENs floundering O. And the offense, while still limited, will chip away and do enough to win - the TEN D has some issues, but their DL is still menacing. I think we McPherson them to death. 23-13 Bengals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Kyle Juszczyk is +1600 to score on DK. This is disrespectful and I will throw a quarter unit on him at those odds in every single game this year if they let me. He'll only score twice this entire year and gets maybe 2 touches per game.. buuut this is still my YOLO TD bet of the week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Got Jalin Hyatt in at +900 on fanduel to score I was gonna wait until draft kings post it but I can always cash out if odds are better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 7 hours ago, Broncofan said: -Rhamondre Stephenson O17.5 rec yds - this should be a Rhamondre catch-up script, but as I said before, it should have been the last 2 weeks. That brings the spectre that OC Bill O'Brien simply doesn't want the RB to get a lot of pass work. Crazy, I know. You're a mad man for going back to this well, but by God do I like your style. I'm in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Brian Robinson O6.5 receiving yards He only has 3 receptions on the season ,but they have gone for 49 yards. They need to get Howell more comfortable with check downs and I think this is to B-Rob's benefit some. Might be two catches but I like him to hit the small over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham both with back to back DNPs - I feel like there would be money to be made here with Agholor or Flowers if it weren't for a stingy CLE secondary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: You're a mad man for going back to this well, but by God do I like your style. I'm in. Hold up - I didn’t take it yet. I’m going to let the early slate guide me here lol 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 1 minute ago, SmittyBacall said: Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham both with back to back DNPs - I feel like there would be money to be made here with Agholor or Flowers if it weren't for a stingy CLE secondary. Plus a great pass rush. Need to see the BAL OL injury report before I go there Probably just a pass. CLE D looks legit. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 11 hours ago, N4L said: Love this one. Feels like a good time to share one of my resources: https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/stats/posvsdef/RB/JAC/teambreakdown/standard You can see what position groups have done against defenses. So, we can see that the jags have given up a ton of receptions to RBs, which means we should absolutely smash this prop considering its friggen bijan robinson. Love this, thank you. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted September 29, 2023 Share Posted September 29, 2023 3 hours ago, thebestever6 said: Got Jalin Hyatt in at +900 on fanduel to score I was gonna wait until draft kings post it but I can always cash out if odds are better. Ya this is a no doubt play. I'll be shocked if he doesn't beat us over the top lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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