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Weekly Bets Thread

BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted

So the season long props are back after Sunday and DK has Bijan Robinson now at 20-1 to win the rushing title.  Even though he’s basically in 3rd place (with 3 others).
 

It’s still a longshot but I’d put it more at 5-1 or 8-1 given the 2 players clearly ahead of him are CMC & Swift.  2U play.  

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Dash

Dash

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On 10/1/2023 at 8:09 AM, Dash said:

Caesars super leg parlay bet

Sutton & Juedy over 4.5 receptions

Collins,Dell,Woods over 3.5 receptions

(PHI) Smith over 4.5 receptions/ Brown over 6.5 receptions

Thielen & Hockenson over 4.5 receptions Jefferson over 6.5 receptions

Olave over 5.5 receptions/Thomas over 4.5 receptions

Atwell over 4.5 receptions,Nacua over 6.5 receptions, Downs over 3.5 receptions, Pittman over 5.5 receptions

Bet-$10

Payout- $400k

 

I have delivered.

 

Pretty bad week with some off QBs spreading the ball out even more than originally thought or just not getting anything going at all ( Cousins ). 

Already looking forward to next week's receiving props.

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N4L

N4L

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Texans to Win Division (0.25u @ +500) - Like I said, if anyone competes with Jacksonville, it will be this Houston team. Even after today's win, their odds were longest in the AFC South

This is crazy to me. 

I took them +750 already, might have to double down on the +500 after they took it to Pittsburgh. Even though I think Pittsburgh is realistically a bottom 10 team, that was an impressive win. 

Houston is a physical team. They dont play. Stroud is a killer. 

On 10/1/2023 at 10:06 AM, 11sanchez11 said:

Went with Rams ML

Bills -2.5

Texans ML

Also like AZ/49ers o 43.5

You are so sharp. I would love to see the winning % of your bets here, must be like 70% or something. I wish you would have posted them a day or two earlier though, rather than 5m after kick haha

Edited by N4L
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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted
On 9/29/2023 at 1:53 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

***Derrick Henry O68.5 - I mentioned the narrative play. I won’t bet Titans, but I will bet on Henry delivering on his promise. If he’s saying it, Vrabel is listening. 

***Roschon Johnson O33.5 - This line is 7 yards less than Khalil Herbert, which is wild to me. Roschon out touched & snapped Herbert last week. He is the RB1 in Chicago.

***Javonte Williams O52.5 - Under the hood, Javonte has actually been exceptional so far. The best way to supplement a bad defense is a good run game. I expect Payton to lean into that. 

***Tony Pollard O71.5 - I want to keep hitting this line in smash matchups. His O/U carries is 17.5. He’s smashing 71.5 if he gets close to that. 

If you see me bragging about my DHenry hit despite all of you saying to avoid it, keep in mind that I'm just masking the fact I missed on my other 4 rushing props lol. Despite reports that Roschon would continue his ascension in the Bears offense, he saw his lightest touch share of the season in a smash matchup. Sigh. Javonte went out early with an injury in what was also a smash matchup for him. Pollard never got close. I did predict a Dallas blowout, but I figured Pollard would be the beneficiary. 

 

On 9/29/2023 at 2:13 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

**Tank Dell O47.5 - Ya I’ll keep playing this too. Only hesitation is that Houston’s OTs are out which neuters the Texans offense. 

***Kyren Williams O25.5 - His target share is insane. This is an easier hit than Bijan. 

***Justin Jefferson O99.5 - He’s crushing this number weekly on almost 13 targets per. Jaycee Horn still out, I don’t see how Carolina stops him. 

***JaMarr Chase O81.5 - We’ve talked about the Titans shutting down Mixon. If that’s the case, they’ll go back to feeding Chase. 

***Keenan Allen O83.5 - Why would Herbert go away from him? LV’s secondary is terrible & Big Mike is out. 

 

Like I said, it was a bad day for props. These went 0-5. If you told me Tee Higgins would leave this game & Chase would have 7 catches, I would've slammed that. So it goes. Jefferson was also tough. I thought Carolina MIGHT be able to do something offensively against a bad Vikings defense. I was wrong. Kirk only had 139 yards passing, & Jefferson still managed to hall in 85 yards, 2 TDs, & nearly hit this prop on a 17 yard pass that barely missed. Kyren Williams ends up 2 yards short as he doesn't see a single target until the Rams final regulation possession. 

I did add a few others plays that I didn't post here (I mentioned tailing some of them) that saved the day a bit....


Puka Nacua O6.5 Catches (1u @ +115) 

Puka Nacua O72.5 Yards (1u) 

Tua Tagovailoa O272.5 Yards (1u) - He literally hit this on his last pass of the game. I'll take it with all of my other close misses. 

Christian Kirk O4.5 Catches (1u) 

Christian Kirk O52.5 Yards (1u) 

Nico Collins O50.5 Yards (1u)

Rhamondre U55.5 Yards (1u) 

Joe Mixon U55.5 (1u) 

D'Andre Swift O63.5 (1u) 

 

All in all, 8-10 on props for -2u with 6 more to go tonight. Hoping I can come out +money on for the weekend with player props. 

 

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted (edited)
39 minutes ago, N4L said:

Houston is a physical team. They dont play. Stroud is a killer.

They have an excellent Head Coach & really strong QB play. Those are 2 things I bet on. I'd argue, on any given Sunday, they have the best QB in the division as of right now (I still think TLaw is better). 

The fact they have the lowest odds screams recency bias of what people assume that team to be. 

Edited by SaveOurSonics
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N4L

N4L

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Posted
30 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

They have an excellent Head Coach & really strong QB play. Those are 2 things I bet on. I'd argue, on any given Sunday, they have the best QB in the division as of right now (I still think TLaw is better). 

The fact they have the lowest odds screams recency bias of what people assume that team to be. 

Yeah, exactly. People are slow to wake up to things sometimes. The film doesn't lie. The texans are real. 

On 9/28/2023 at 11:12 PM, N4L said:

This thread is awesome. Absolute magic fellas. Tip of the cap all around. 

 

Here is a futures bet I love: 

Texans to win the AFCS +750. Someone told me they got this at +1000 so shop around. 

This line is massively mispriced.

The texans defense is night and day better from last year. Will Anderson is everything that people said about him. He is still pretty raw all things considered but he is a very savvy and smart player who is also an absolute freak of an athlete. I didnt check his testing numbers but I think he is basically stronger Myles Garrett. Their DL is actually pretty good. DeMeco is a top tier defensive coach. He has them playing really well as a unit. The team has bought in. They know they are the best houston team in many years. 

Their offense is pretty good. Their OL has been a big problem but theyve still put up points. They got Tunsil back last week and that was massive. They should get more back soon. Stroud is incredible, he also feels like the OROY (anyone know where that line has been hung?). They have a good OC in Bobby Slo. They feel like a complete football team and the world is sleeping on them. 

The colts are well coached but feel like a mess. Their defense is out of sorts and I just dont think they have the juice. 

The titans offense is dogsh!t. Their OL is bad bad bad and Tannehill is worse. No clue what happened to that guy but he is suddenly not an NFL starter anymore. Will levis or Malik Willis are worse. Their defense has some hitters though, but mainly on their front (byard is still great though).

The Jags are favored to win the division and I totally understand why, but the texans are at worst the 2nd best team in the division. Its great value. 

 

I know @SaveOurSonics and @Broncofan were talking earlier in the week about how they loved them against PIT this weekend. I played them in a large 7pt teaser to +10 with the under in that game. The steelers DL will give the texans some issues but I think Houston will be able to grind out some drives. The steelers got gashed on the ground by Kyle and someone who runs Kyle's offense in stefanski. So Bobby Slo should see the gameplan clearly. Demeco will eat canada's lunch. The texans defense is pretty physical.

People will wake up to them after this win. We wont get these division odds again. If the jags drop a game or two here, I will closely monitor their line. If I could get them around +250 I will consider risking aobut 50% of my HOU risk on the jags to win the division. 

I am once again asking if anyone knows where to bet Stroud for OROY. 

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
Posted (edited)

I teased how well I did on Teasers this week. Let's talk. 

 

Chiefs -1.5 / Cowboys ML / Chargers ML (2.5u @ +120) - More of a sweat than I anticipated. 

Eagles -1.5 / Chiefs -2.5 / Cowboys ML (2.5u @ +120) - Again. 

Chargers +1.5 / 49ers -7 / Seahawks +8 (1.5u @ +120) - Go Seahawks. 

Packers +8.5 / Dolphins +10 / MIA BUF O47 (1u @ +120) - LOVE when I have 2 losers on the same ticket. Lower confidence play as you can tell with the 1u play. 

MIA BUF O47 / CIN TEN U48 / KC NYJ U49 / SEA NYG O40.5 (0.6u @ +180) - Lets go offense. 

LAR IND O39.5 / CIN TEN U48 / KC NYJ U49 / SEA NYG O40.5 (1u @ +180) - Lets go offense. 

 

And the ML Parlays that are still alive.....


Texans ML / Rams ML / Seahawks ML (0.4u @ +750) - 3-leg "underdog" ML special.  

Eagles ML / Vikings ML / Chargers ML / Cowboys ML / Chiefs ML (2u @ +350) - Huge hit. That Chiefs win secured +7.5u on this ticket alone! 

 

EDIT...

I forgot to add Cowboys ML / Bears +10 / SEA NYG O40 (1.5u @ +135) to my Teaser list and a Cowboys ML / 49ers ML / Vikings ML / Chiefs ML / Seahawks ML (.8u @ +420) to the ML Parlay side. 

I also forgot to include last night's Chiefs -1.5 / U48.5 Teaser that hit for +1u. 

 

All in all, that's +13.5u on Teasers with another +14.4u on the line tonight with these tickets alone. You can see why I like to play Teasers more than anything else. 

 

 

 

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N4L

N4L

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10 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Daniel Jones O32.5 Attempts (2u @ -110) - This number is at least 2 attempts too low & one of my highest confidence prop plays (I never go 2u on props). The Seahawks have allowed attempts of 38, 35, & 58 in their 3 games. The run defense has been exceptional, Saquon is out, & DJones has all of his weapons healthy. I'll bet he finishes in the high 30s. Outside of a Giants blowout, I consider this gamescript proof. 

Ken Walker O10.5 Receiving (1u @ -110) - This is crazy low. Vegas is still baking in way too much historical volume on this. Seattle has made a concerted effort to get Walker involved in the pass game early, with 4 catches Week 1 & nearly 60 yards last week. He can easily hit this on a single catch with his YAC ability. Gamescript proof. 

I love the DJ attempts prop. What do you think about the Ken walker over 66 rush yards? Giants have given up over 100 yards rushing in each game and Seattle should have a positive game script. 

 

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SaveOurSonics

SaveOurSonics

Posted
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1 minute ago, N4L said:

What do you think about the Ken walker over 66 rush yards? Giants have given up over 100 yards rushing in each game and Seattle should have a positive game script.

I don't hate it, but I didn't want to lean TOO hard on the Seahawks positive game script assumption & try to shoot for props that can hit regardless. Walker has ceded more RB touch share to Charbonnet every week, so I think Charbs is the much lower barrier to entry play that should hit if that same gamescript plays out. K9 is such a boom or bust runner that if he doesn't pop a big one, he can post a workman's like 18 carries for 48 yards (see the Detroit game), for example. 

Again, don't hate it at all. Just not one of my preferred plays. 

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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, N4L said:

Yeah, exactly. People are slow to wake up to things sometimes. The film doesn't lie. The texans are real. 

I am once again asking if anyone knows where to bet Stroud for OROY. 

Right now he is thr favorite at +200 on Caesars

 

I actually just put a little bit down on Young at +6000 on Hard Rock. Sure he has been the worst of the 3 QBs so far, but it's only been 4 weeks. A lot can happen and I'm willing to toss some change at those odds.

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