Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

My favorite bet of the night is the Seattle team total over 23.5. They have scored 37 the past two weeks. The giants defense has not been good. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Added WanDale O2.5 Catches + O20.5 Yards (0.75u @ +135)

[SaveOurSonics]

This game script couldn’t be going any better 🤑

 

Seahawks 1H ML ✅

Seahawks Race10 ✅

[SaveOurSonics]

47 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Added WanDale O2.5 Catches + O20.5 Yards (0.75u @ +135)

A useful last second play. 1H cash ✅

[Soggust]

6 hours ago, N4L said:

My favorite bet of the night is the Seattle team total over 23.5. They have scored 37 the past two weeks. The giants defense has not been good. 

I slammed a bunch of bets on the 24 pt over based on this advanced reasoning lol.

You scared me, but thanks a bunch buddy haha!

[SaveOurSonics]

19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I really like the Seahawks/Giants card & I am leaning in HEAVY on my prediction that the Seahawks win this game by 7+. Daniel Jones is 0-6 on MNF. Seattle is undefeated at MetLife. They are the better team. For the MNF slate I have.....

✅Seahawks ML (1u @ +120) - I got this line when it first came out & NYG was favored by 1.5. 

✅Seahawks Race10 (1u @ +100) - Same as above. Seattle's defense has been tremendous in the 1H of games. First game with Spoon, Woolen, & Adams playing should have those guys amped. 

✅Seahawks +8 - Last leg of a big teaser. 

O40 - I have this as a last leg on 2 different teasers. 

✅Seahawks 1H -0.5 (1u @ +100) - Same logic as the Race. Seattle's defense has been lock down in the 1H. 

Geno Smith O1.5 TDs (1u @ +100) - He's done this in 1/3 games so far. That said, the Giants are beatable in the secondary & I think Geno shows up for the lights. I'll predict this hits in the 3Q. 

✅Daniel Jones O32.5 Attempts (2u @ -110) - This number is at least 2 attempts too low & one of my highest confidence prop plays (I never go 2u on props). The Seahawks have allowed attempts of 38, 35, & 58 in their 3 games. The run defense has been exceptional, Saquon is out, & DJones has all of his weapons healthy. I'll bet he finishes in the high 30s. Outside of a Giants blowout, I consider this gamescript proof. 

✅Daniel Jones O0.5 INTs (1u @ +115) - If I'm betting on the Over Attempts, you better believe I'm hitting this too. Spoon has been excellent. Woolen is a ball hawk. Adams is a ball hawk. Quandre Diggs is a ball hawk. Again, I find this gamescript proof. 

Ken Walker O10.5 Receiving (1u @ -110) - This is crazy low. Vegas is still baking in way too much historical volume on this. Seattle has made a concerted effort to get Walker involved in the pass game early, with 4 catches Week 1 & nearly 60 yards last week. He can easily hit this on a single catch with his YAC ability. Gamescript proof. 

✅Matt Breida U47.5 Rushing (1u @ -110) - David Montgomery is the only RB to exceed 3.5 YPC against Seattle this year. The only other RB to eclipse 3.0 YPC is Kyren Williams. If my assumption on this game is correct, Breida shouldn't see the volume to entertain this number. The Over is counting on one huge rush or a Giants blowout. 

✅Zach Charbonnet O22.5 Rushing (1u @ -110) - As I type this explanation, I want to put another unit on this. Charbonnet has seen his rushing opportunities increase from 3 to 4 to 9 over the last 3 weeks. The team is clearly ramping him up. He nearly had 50 yards last week. My guess is he can hit this number at 6+ carries, which is more than doable. This is nearly gamescript proof. 

JSN O2.5 Catches + O27.5 Receiving (0.5u @ +200) - Similar to my strategy with Zach Wilson, I'd rather parlay two corresponding lines on a player I'm not super confident in. Cheaper wager, pays out more, & if my narrative is correct, both should hit. JSN is overdue for a big(ish) game. 

✅WanDale Robinson O2.5 Catches + O20.5 Receiving (0.75u @ +200) - Last second add pays off. Felt easy as WanDale ramps up as the teams WR1.  

I’d say the heavy lean paid off! That’s a 9-4 MNF dedicated slate on these plays above. 

I’ll do full week recap tomorrow. 

[Broncofan]

Man, not the night to back NYG deep ball props - Danny Jones attempted TWO passes of 10+ yards.    0-2 player props, -5.5U.   ML correct with SEA (easily), but also results in so few opps for NYG, and SEA lets off the gas (although Parkinson was again the main TE route-wise in RZ, Fant's work was between the 20's).    -1.5U for the longshot TD's.   SEA run game was the way to go, although the split was a headache, Walker & Charbonnet hit their props on their last drives (something to keep in mind for the future, it's such an effective tandem, but hard for any alt line goodness with both in the mix).

On to Week 5, a terrible game on paper, but some props to consider for TNF lol.

 

WEEK 4 FINAL:

ATS/ML: 6-9-1, -3U (Wk 4 MNF: 2-2, even)

PLAYER PROPS: 25-31, -7.5U (Wk 4 MNF: 6-7, -2.3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-48, +21.1U  (Wk 4: 1-12, -3.1U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +11.1U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; 215U stake so far)

Edited October 3, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So with single games, player props being dependent on getting the volume, matchup & gamescript right, even though the game itself looks ugly to be on prime time, there are 2 props that are out, and 1 prop I'm dying to take for TNF, all with alt lines:

WEEK 5  TNF

PLAYER PROPS

DJ Moore O47.5 rec yds (already up to 48.5), 70+ rec yds +260 1U (boosted) & 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - simply too low for the guy that commands the targets and air yards in CHI.   WAS secondary still gives up a lot of yards, so it's not hard to back this.  DK has changed their alt lines to match FD's 10-yard increments, so I took 70 & 100 alt lines.

 

Justin Fields O47.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ yds +260 1U DK - if we think the WAS -7 line is set appropriately, then it's a catchup game for CHI.   WAS D has a good pass rush, but their weakness, besides secondary, is their lane control - they've given up 6-56 to Russell Wilson and 3-46 to Josh Allen.  Because their pass rush is decent, that creates more QB run opps (I'm not going to count on designed QB runs, the OC Getsy <who's awful, btw, right up with there with Matt Canada & Pete Carmichael> isn't calling them).    Last year, Fields torched WAS for a 12-88 line.   With Moore around and OC Getsy being QB-run gunshy, those are the 2 risks that we don't see this hit, but I'm sticking with the high-usage, best-players with low-ish lines principle. 

 

Brian Robinson O62.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rush yds +240 (boosted) & 100+ rush yds +480 0.5U - with CHI's run D and WAS projected to be winning, we know B-Rob is the hammer.   WAS' 2 wins have been comeback wins, but the one quarter we saw them ahead - they used B-Rob as the closer.   DK offered me 2 25% boosts 1U max, so I took B-Rob & DJ Moore's alt lines and boosted them up. 

 

Jahan Dotson O41.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +200 1U DK - I know he's hit the under in 4 straight weeks.   The last 2 games I've passed on him with the Bills and Week 4 with his heavy slot usage & James Bradberry there (moved to slot with Maddux out, RCB Jobe is the matchup target with PHI D right now).  But he's running routes 100% of the time he's out there, he's getting separation on film review, and he got 9 targets last week.   And to help his case this week Curtis Samuel is banged up (and he's a far less talented WR).  Mclaurin's total is already set at 60.5, so if it's sub-40, it's time to go back to the well with Dotson, with alt lines.   

So far that's 13U in player props.

LONGSHOT TD

Darnell Mooney +600 / +10000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog (+500/+5500 on DK) - I love DJ Moore, but his size makes him less of a RZ target.  WAS D is a really stingy TE D overall, so that leaves Mooney.   He had a down year last year, but he was the dominant RZ guy in 2021, and still led the team in RZ targets.  When ESB was in the +1500 to +2000 range, that was too good to pass up, but the clear #2 guy at +600?  Gotta take my shot here.   EDIT:   holy ****, Bodog dropped the TD prop to +350 immediately.   +500 on DK is worth a 0.5U play IMO. 

Dynami Brown +1100 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - He's +500 on DK and +550 on Bodog - Curtis Samuel is DNP on the Monday injury report, and Brown's seeing about 35 percent of the snaps.  He's also getting at least 1-2 deep looks and surprising amount of RZ snaps, so it's worth the play and go to DK with the 2-TD play.

Cole Turner +1200 0.4U FD (no 2-TD) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - DK has Turner at +850, and Bodog has +450.   Sadly Logan Thomas is getting most of the work, but Turner still sees snaps in the Parham role with 2-min drill and RZ, at those #'s I have to take the 0.4U stab & go with DK for the 2-TD 0.1U stab.

So that's 2U in TD props, and 15U total.  A scary number, but the analysis says all 4 players are in smash spots, so have to trust the analysis. 

OTHER NOTES

I know ppl will look at Khalil Herbert's 100+ yards last week vs. DEN and wonder why they should go with Fields instead.   Two reasons - Herbert's snap share went up to 72 percent (from an even split with Roschon Johnson) - but DEN's run D and a 21 pt lead both played a heavy role in that usage.    In games where CHI has trailed, Johnson is the better blocker and pass catcher, so he's been out there more.    And with a short week, it's really hard to count on RB work becoming more prevalent, unless there's a clear role usage every week (see: David Montgomery).   Secondly, WAS' run D is actually decent, so when you combine that with a negative game script, it's hard to back Herbert this week.   Give me a week where CHI is likely to be ahead, or show me that Herbert & Roschon Johnson don't split snaps in trailing scenario, and I can back Herbert's number more easily.

 

Edited October 5, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

Kenneth Walker ATTD props are hitting all this season. And I knew the Seahawks would win bc Daniel Jones is actually worst than Cousins in Primetime games. So when you see Jones on any Primetime games bet the other team lol.

As for the TNF Im looking at Brian Robinson rushing yards prop and possibly an ATTD for him too.

Edited October 3, 2023 by stl4life07

[Rainmaker90]

Not a good week for me , but still a real good year.

 

I bet games early and am on the right end of line movement 

 

GB +1 at LV , they’re now at 2.5

 

Buffalo -4.5 vs Jax , they’re now at 5.5

[SaveOurSonics]

Bummed I didn't snag GB at +1 (was waiting for the Teaser to be eligible) but I did get Texans ML when they were sitting +3. Now at +1. 

 

It's as simple as getting up on Atlanta early. This team is incapable of coming back from behind. I trust the Texans to keep this offensive momentum rolling. 

[SaveOurSonics]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OTHER NOTES

Why not just play the Herbert Under in that case? 

[SaveOurSonics]

Darnell Mooney O29.5 Receiving (1u @ -105) - Easy play here. Claypool isn't playing & Mooney has hit the Over in every game he's finished this season (the only game he didn't hit was the last time I bet this prop LOL). Like BF said, the Commanders are good against the TE, which means more targets should get funneled to the WRs. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Brian Robinson O6.5 Receiving (1u @ -105) - I actually found this while considering Khalil Herbert O11.5 Receiving. During my research, I found out that the Bears allow the most Receiving Yards per Game to the RB position (~58). Robinson has seen at least 2 targets in every game outside of the Bills blowout (only saw 10 total opportunities all game) & has hit the O6.5 in 2 of those 3 games (the exception being last week against a talented Philly defense) 

With the Commanders as favorites + a bad Bears defense, this feels like a smash play. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Antonio Gibson U22.5 Rush (1u @ -105) - Um, okay. Ya I'll take this. Gibson has yet to go over 22.5 Rush on the season. In the Commanders 2 wins this season, he has 5 carries for 16 yards. The Commanders are favored by 7. The Bears are a bottom 10 defense in Rush Yards Allowed. They are a top 10 defense in Rush Yards Allowed per Carry. Gibson will likely need 6+ carries to hit this total. I'm not confident he sees that.