stl4life07 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 4 hours ago, Broncofan said: As someone who got restricted, 2 pieces of advice: 1. Don't cash out bets that have massive reduction in closing odds. 2. Don't bother with arbitrage (for those that don't know - taking great line early on 1 side, then take the other side later in week to guarantee profit) Those are the 2 biggest flags books look for in sharp bettors - because they're guaranteed profit moves when you can find them. Books are notorious for searching for those 2 patterns of behavior. It's been highly publicized and reported in some mainsteam articles like Forbes last year. I was killing it on B365 for 2 straight years, then last year got on those 2 moves as per suggestions from a couple of other bettors I chat with. Not their fault, it was my decision - but if I had to do it over again, I would never have bothered. Short-term gain, long-term loss. B365 is def the book to exploit for alt lines (plus their 17-pt auto-win for all games is pretty sweet - would have saved Cards / Saints Week 2 & Bears Week 4 ML bettors) Dk did me dirty when I was betting MLB. They give out these boost seemingly every day and I take advantage of them. I was losing but then had a stretch where I won 3 in a row. Immediately they took the max bet from $25 to $10. I was like all that bc I won 3 straight $25 max bets from the boost. I lost more than I won so winning 3 straight shouldnt mean immediately restrict me. Thats crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 4 hours ago, MikeT14 said: 1) Howell over 225+ passing, Fields over 175+ passing parlay / +116 Ooooh I see what you did here. Really like it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeT14 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, stl4life07 said: Dk did me dirty when I was betting MLB. They give out these boost seemingly every day and I take advantage of them. I was losing but then had a stretch where I won 3 in a row. Immediately they took the max bet from $25 to $10. I was like all that bc I won 3 straight $25 max bets from the boost. I lost more than I won so winning 3 straight shouldnt mean immediately restrict me. Thats crazy. Got me with that too. I was salty. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, MikeT14 said: Got me with that too. I was salty. Yeah and the only thing they can say is they approach each account differently. But thats why its important to have multiple sportsbooks. Edited October 4, 2023 by stl4life07 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 On 10/3/2023 at 8:56 AM, Broncofan said: Darnell Mooney His yardage o/u jumped out to me when I was looking at the lines today... he can get 29.5 in one catch, and should get some good opportunities.. especially with Claypool ousted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 4 hours ago, stl4life07 said: Dk did me dirty when I was betting MLB. They give out these boost seemingly every day and I take advantage of them. I was losing but then had a stretch where I won 3 in a row. Immediately they took the max bet from $25 to $10. I was like all that bc I won 3 straight $25 max bets from the boost. I lost more than I won so winning 3 straight shouldnt mean immediately restrict me. Thats crazy. Pointsbet basically banned me for making a mint on their deposit bonuses a couple years ago.. these books do not like people who are making easy money 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 48 minutes ago, adamq said: Pointsbet basically banned me for making a mint on their deposit bonuses a couple years ago.. these books do not like people who are making easy money 😂 I heard some bad things about Points Bet. Mainly about their deposit bonus for new customers. Like I hate when people get banned from sportsbooks for no real reason. It’s betting. You take advantage of what they offer and if you win then great for you. I don’t see why they would go to the extreme to ban you. Again that’s insane. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, adamq said: His yardage o/u jumped out to me when I was looking at the lines today... he can get 29.5 in one catch, and should get some good opportunities.. especially with Claypool ousted I'd like to see it for 1 more game until I'm willing to bet even money type props on Mooney. The thing is that DEN D is such an outlier in how bad they are, that it doesn't necessarily correlate with future usage. I get that Claypool isn't there, but the fact remains that Mooney didn't unseat Claypool until he was basically benched. That always gives me pause. Before last week's 4-target usage, he literally had only 3 targets in 3 games...kinda scary. You give me +600 as the only viable 2nd WR in the RZ, though, and I'm in. I don't need to be as certain to take the stab given the return is so high. On that note, I see that Jahan Dotson is set at 41.5 rec yds on FD, and his 60+ yard prop is +200, so in we go for 3U. The way my week 4 luck is going, Mooney will go off for 50+ but no TD's, and Dotson will remain underutilized lol. Edited October 5, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 Have a few SGPs for tonight. Commanders pass D being this bad could led to Fields having another good game or it may just be the strength of QBs faced. Mclaurin over 4.5 catches Thomas over 2.5 catches Dotson over 3.5 catches Mooney over 2.5 catches Moore over 3.5 catches Samuel over 2.5 catches Moore over 40+ receiving yards Mooney over 25+ receiving yards Samuel over 25+ receiving yards Mclaurin over 50+ receiving yards Robinson over 50+ rushing yards Bet-$10 Win-$660 Most confident play. Other parlays have a bit more on the yardages for higher payout. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) On 10/4/2023 at 12:22 PM, Broncofan said: BTW, one line that's out early that I'm going to go with the alt lines - Brandon Aiyuk O54.5 rec yds. I get it, it's the DAL pass D - but they are prone to giving up big plays. They don't have shut down CB's, their pass rush prevents teams from driving down the field. As Aiyuk is the clear alpha dog there in terms of usage / air yards, and doesn't have a shutdown CB matchup, this is a prime spot to exploit. No alt lines out yet. OK so my Sunday card is rounding into shape with ATS/ML plays & player props , only a couple of players who aren't out yet (and I don't think they will until the injury report is finalized on Fri for Sunday games): WEEK 5 SUNDAY SLATE ATS/ML (6-9-1,-3U) EARLY HOU ML +110 @ ATL - the HOU O is legit, CJ Stroud is legit, the D is legit. ATL has Bijan Robinson and Pitts/London who are criminally underutilized, and a very good ATL secondary, but HOU has them covered in coaching & QB & matches them in the trenches, which makes it easy to back them at dog $. IND ML +110 vs. TEN - TEN is back to their usual pattern - strong dogs (esp at home), but avoid/fade as favorites, esp on the road. I think Nuk Hopkins could have a big day, but unless the IND OL is completely decimated on this week's injury report, I have to go with the home team here. Check the OL injury reports as I do think that was a huge factor in LAR's road win. LATE NYJ ML +120 (10-pt auto-win enabled) - as much as I think Nathaniel Hackett is a bottom 3 OC and Zach Wilson isn't NFL-level, they're facing the worst D in the league AND Vance Joseph, who is also a bottom 3 DC. The key problem is NYJ matches up so well vs. our weaknesses (DL vs. pass protection, CB's vs our WR's, who are only weapons in pass game, their run game vs. our non-existent run D). Still, it's not a lock because of Zach & Hackett. So taking the 10-pt auto-win play here, in case Payton & Russell Wilson can engineer a late comeback like we saw last week at Chicago. MIN +5 vs. KC - this is a simple testament to MIN DC Brian Flores, who's upgraded the MIN D to be legit. With KC's continued troubles in finding WR help, I think Cousins & JJ + the rest (Hockensen, Addison) can keep this close, and I'm willing to say they keep it to 3 pts or less, so I have to take the points. That's 4U in plays so far this week. PLAYER PROPS (25-31, -7.5U) UK GAME Dalton Kincaid O3.5 catches FD +130 2U (if you have B365, take the 4/5 alt lines instead - better odds) - covered before, hit 5+ catches in 3/4 games, snap shares increasing, Jags D that allows TE volume. I don't have B365 but if you have it, 5+ is a smash spot at juiced odds there EARLY David Montgomery O67.5 rush yds DK 2U (already up to 70.5 since I started writing this up lol) - CAR bottom 3 run D in the league, and a 10 pt dog. We know Monty gets volume; if they're up, Monty will get at least 16-18 carries. I have him projected at 80+ yards. The only reason besides injury where this doesn't hit - if it becomes a blowout, we may see a lot more rest for Monty and more Jahmyr Gibbs this week (plus, the fact Monty took 30+ carries even though it was 10+ days ago). In that case, I may or may not take the alt lines. Still, FD has him opened at 76.5 rush yds, which shows why this should be a smash spot to take for the main line. Deandre Hopkins O52.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U, 100+ +580 0.5U DK - I have IND winning, but that's not to say it's going to be a slaughter. IND's run D is decent, so while I expect Derrick Henry to get his touches, it's the TEN pass game that needs to step up. Nuk is the snap count and target leader - ppl may wonder at him having fewer snaps and targets last week, but he was rested the entire 4Q, which is very misleading. With this prop and the IND secondary, sign. me. up. Please, please, please - don't get hurt on this game, Nuk. D'Andre Swift O65.5 rush yds 2U DK, 90+ rush yds +260 1U, 110+ rush yds +580 0.5U DK - the PHI OL vs. a bottom half run D, with a game script that has PHI in the lead? Much like Monty, I'll take a share of 90 & 110 yard alt lines here too. Again....please, please please don't get hurt lol. Rasheed Shaheed O27.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ rec yds +300 1U DK - Well, I'm 2-2 with Shaheeed, and ppl may think I'm a glutton for punishment (and they may be right). But because NE is missing Christian Gonzalez AND a couple of other CB's (why they traded for JC Jackson), with their tough run D, the pass game is where you look for props. And BB always strives to take away the biggest weapon - which is Chris Olave. So with those 2 scenarios, I have to take Shaheed at both 27.5 main and the 50+ +300 1st alt line. LATE Breece Hall O60.5 rush yds FD 2U; 80+ rush yds +220 1U; 100+ rush yds +500 0.5U & 120+ rush yds +1100 0.5U - it's the worst run D in the league, and one prone to big home run plays. This is a 3.5U no-brainer play, even with the risk that OC Hackett decides to "only" call dives on 1st down and uses Dalvin Cook in a timeshare. Def want the 80/100+ alt lines here & even the 120+ for the rare 4U play. Tyler Conklin O27.5 rec yds DK 2U, 50+ rec yd +280 1U - besides the run game, the TE pass D is just abysmal (disregard Wk1 LV, they've targeted TE's 7x in 4 games lol, and MIA was a blowout where they didn't need the TE's at all) - WAS TE's went 7-90-1 Wk2 and CHI TE's were 10-111-2. Conklin averages 5-6 targets a game as the clear #2 option, I imagine that's his floor, so the 50+ yard alt line is def in play (he has very little YAC ability, so going 70+ seems a stretch - let's see how the early slate works out before lol). NGL, it's scary to rely on Hackett & Zach Wilson, but the number is too low to pass up on that & 50+ alt line. James Conner O58.5 rush yds 2U DK - I don't want any part of the pass props for either side, or the ATS/ML, but I do know that Conner will get his 15-18 carries, and the ARI OL is a legit asset. At 15-18 carries, I had Conner projected at 70-75 yards, so this is a strong main line play. In the event that ARI does fall behind (so hard to know where Joe Burrow is at each week), I'm likely going to stick to just the main line here. NEW SUN MID-PM: Jaleel Mclaughlin O11.5 rec yds for 2U DK - With Javonte Williams inactive this just way too low vs. NYJ D and Payton who loves to use the RB in the pass game. I really am sad that there are no alt lines. If B365 bettors have 25+ you should absolutely smash that. SNF/MNF Brandon Aiyuk O54.5 rec yds (already 56.5 now) 2U, 80+ rec yds +240, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U - already covered, but the #1 alpha WR in SF, and DAL's secondary vulnerable to big plays. He gets both volume and air yards, so this is a 3.5U full play at that # once the alt lines are out. So that’s 28.5U with 10 players on Sunday, and likely am taking that 1 more prop once it's out. I also have TWO 0.4U free plays this week, so I'll go with Montgomery O70.5 rush yds / Hopkins O53.5 rec yds / Swift O65.5 rush / Kincaid O3.5 +130 / Hall O60.5 rush yds / Conner O58.5 rush yds / Aiyuk O56.5 rec yds for a +9830 YOLO 7-leg parley & Breece Hall top Sunday rusher at +2000 0.4U - YOLO . ... LONGSHOT TD (9-48, +21.1U) UK GAME Dalton Kincaid +350 / +3500 0.4U / 0.1U FD - DK has him at +250, and I think his line should be at +200. There aren't many value spots I see this week so far, so I'm going to sneak past my +400 threshold as I do think this is one of the best values on the board so far. If the line moves to +300, then I'd probably stick with a 0.5U play, and pass on anything lower. Khalil Shakir +1500 FD 0.4U / +11000 2+ DK 0.1U & Trent Sherfield +950 FD 0.4U / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.1U - it's crazy, DK has Sherfield at +400 to score a TD, while FD has +950 while DK has Shakir at +850 & FD has him at +550 (edit: then up to +1500!). I agree they're splitting the slot work, and Kincaid is also in the mix (while Diggs/Davis still get theirs) - but the odds just give too good of an opp to pass up on (Sherfield's best odds for 2+ are +4000 on DK, waiting to see how Bodog & other books line up, I think I can do better than that lol. EDIT FRI - Bodog comes through at +10000). EARLY Wan'dale Robinson +600 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog (+550 on FD/DK, but much lower 2-TD odds) - he's gradually taking over slot work from Parris Campbell (while Jalen Hyatt is taking over the boundary position over Isaiah Hodgins), and he's tied for top targets, and now 2nd in snaps from Darius Slayton. The issue with NYG's OL is that the deeper ball isn't there - but Wan'dale's role gives him a fair amount of security. Still given how bad that OL is, I'm going with the 0.5U play here. Rasheed Shaheed +450 / +5000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD - as long as the odds are +400 or better, I'll go 0.5U play, if it's +600 or better, I'll go full unit. Jimmy Graham +750 FD 0.4U / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.1U - you have no idea how hard it is for me to type this out. But Juwan Johnson is almost certainly out of the game, so that actually makes it easy to predict they'll bring in old man JG in a throwing down inside the RZ. Have to take the 0.5U play at those #'s; I don't think the books realize Juwan is likely out this week. NEW SAT AM: Antoine Green +1200 / +19000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - who? DET rookie WR; unlike Jameson Williams he’s been on the field. With Amon-Ra St. Brown doubtful and both Jahmyr Gibbs and Josh Reynolds added to the injury report - he actually becomes viable. Still not enough to back more than a half-stake play. NEW SAT PM: Zonovan Knight +2000 SI (+900 DK) / +13000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Now with Jahmyr Gibbs doubtful Knight is worth a half-stake play. I already have him on Sports Interaction at +2000 (but most don’t have that book available) lol. LATE Noah Gray +700 FD (+650 Bodog) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - MIN pass D offers the same type of setup as last week where TE’s can score. At this number I have to go back to the well with Gray’s usage and targets. NEW FRI PM: Tyler Conklin +400 DK / +4000 FD 0.8U / 0.2U - DEN D is horrendous vs TE. Conklin clear #2 target. Scary to rely on Zach Wilson & Hackett. But too good of a matchup NEW FRI PM: Brandon Johnson +600 DK / +7000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U - DJ Reed and next outside CB are out. Johnson functions as the big move TE in the RZ. Gotta trust it at that number. NEW FRI PM: Xavier Gipson +1600 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Starting to get looks as gadget guy and 3rd WR over Cobb in NYJ. Plus elite punt returner. See Conklin on concerns lol. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Andrei Iosivas (initially +1500 on FD now +1200) +1400 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with news that Tee Higgins is out Iosivas becomes worth a half-stake play. SNF/MNF Added SAT AM: Luke Schoonmaker +1000 / +12000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U - Peyton Hendershot is out and Schoonmaker has a 50% snap share when that happened with 2 RZ targets Worth the half-stake play. That's 8.5U in 14 TD plays so far, we'll see how much the late slate & SNF/MNF provides. That's 41U in total. BOL! ATS/ML: 6-9-1, -3U (WK 5 TNF: NIL) PLAYER PROPS: 27-33, -3.9U (WK 5 TNF: 2-2, +3.6U) LONGSHOT TD: 9-51, +19.6U (WK5 0-3, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700) TOTAL - +12.7U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 TNF: +1.6U; 229U stake so far) Edited October 8, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 On 10/3/2023 at 11:14 PM, SaveOurSonics said: I'll add, I love Teasing the Bears to +14 for this game. The Commanders 2 wins have been by a combined total of 6 points (vs Cardinals & Broncos, no less). This Bears team should be hungry. I see a competitive game. 28-24 Commanders. I was thinking about teasing the bears and commanders tonight. Basically, betting that WSH wins but by less than 14. What do you think? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 25 minutes ago, Broncofan said: HOU ML +110 @ ATL - the HOU O is legit, CJ Stroud is legit, the D is legit. I am pretty leveraged on Houston this week already. Same as I was last week. And the week before that. Vegas is really sleeping on this team. I'll add, I really like Teasing the UNDER in this game (obviously in addition to getting Texans +7-8). Atlanta's pass defense has been sneaky good & AJ Terrell is going to give Nico Collins and/or Tank Dell fits. The Texans run defense is also pretty stout. I expect both offenses to struggle a bit, but I'll still take the far better QB heads up. 27 minutes ago, Broncofan said: IND ML +110 vs. TEN Yep, really like this too. I have the Colts on my "underdog parlay" of the week (w/ Texans). I also love Teasing Colts to +8 & the UNDER is appealing in this game with two of the heaviest run offenses in the league. 29 minutes ago, Broncofan said: David Montgomery O67.5 rush yds DK 2U (already up to 70.5 since I started writing this up lol) Auto play at anything U80 for me tbh. 29 minutes ago, Broncofan said: D'Andre Swift O65.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending - the PHI OL vs. a bottom half run D, with a game script that has PHI in the lead? I'll just say this. I'm wary to assume this is a positive game script for the Eagles. They have been galaxy braining their offense (way too pass heavy in obvious run situations; almost cost them the game last week) which makes Swift a fairly risky play (as I've learned watching the full Eagles game last week & the week prior). I haven't dove in enough to understand why, but while the Rams are a bottom 10 run defense by YPC, they are quite a bit better by total yards given up. The Rams offense tends to play at such a pace that forces opposing offenses to open it up (that's my running theory) & the Philly secondary has been vulnerable early this year. Expect the Rams to make this a game. 32 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Breece Hall O60.5 FD 2U (DK 59.5 -130), alt lines pending Auto 2u play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 8 minutes ago, N4L said: I was thinking about teasing the bears and commanders tonight. Basically, betting that WSH wins but by less than 14. What do you think? Don't hate that at all. I can tell you what I did. I think the Bears are going to be very competitive in this game. They're gonna dump the kitchen sink on WAS in attempt to save jobs. The offense is coming off a very good outing. I don't want to pick the winner of this game. WAS is not beyond being upset (they have barely beaten ARI & DEN). Instead, my gut is (obviously) telling me this is going to be a close game. I took both Commanders Win by 1-6 (+350) AND Bears Win by 1-6 (+450). Either way I make about 2u so long as the final score is within a TD. That said, if you're convinced Washington wins this game, I like your Tease. I might recommend adding (or replacing WAS ML) the OVER in this game as well. Both secondaries have been bad. There should be some fireworks tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) 6 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: I am pretty leveraged on Houston this week already. Same as I was last week. And the week before that. Vegas is really sleeping on this team. I'll add, I really like Teasing the UNDER in this game (obviously in addition to getting Texans +7-8). Atlanta's pass defense has been sneaky good & AJ Terrell is going to give Nico Collins and/or Tank Dell fits. The Texans run defense is also pretty stout. I expect both offenses to struggle a bit, but I'll still take the far better QB heads up. Yep, really like this too. I have the Colts on my "underdog parlay" of the week (w/ Texans). I also love Teasing Colts to +8 & the UNDER is appealing in this game with two of the heaviest run offenses in the league. Auto play at anything U80 for me tbh. I'll just say this. I'm wary to assume this is a positive game script for the Eagles. They have been galaxy braining their offense (way too pass heavy in obvious run situations; almost cost them the game last week) which makes Swift a fairly risky play (as I've learned watching the full Eagles game last week & the week prior). I haven't dove in enough to understand why, but while the Rams are a bottom 10 run defense by YPC, they are quite a bit better by total yards given up. The Rams offense tends to play at such a pace that forces opposing offenses to open it up (that's my running theory) & the Philly secondary has been vulnerable early this year. Expect the Rams to make this a game. Auto 2u play. Re: PHI - the positive game script, that's what gives Swift the 100+ yard alt line ceiling. The main line number is still way too low even in a neutral game script, though. One thing PHI O is very disciplined about - they will run the ball. PHI has the highest neutral-game script run percentage at 54 percent over 4 weeks. I hear you on the potential for LAR pass O to exploit the PHI secondary, but that won't change PHI's philosophy about being a running team and letting the OL wear on D's. My comment on a positive game script is for Swift's ceiling, but as long as he's healthy (a big IF until this season), his floor should get past the main line. Edited October 5, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) Alright, here's my full TNF Card..... Darnell Mooney O29.5 Receiving Brian Robinson O6.5 Receiving Terry McLaurin O57.5 Receiving Antonio Gibson U22.5 Rushing Cole Kmet U31.5 Receiving DJ Moore O3.5 Receptions Sam Howell O238.5 Passing Justin Fields O193.5 Passing Darnell Mooney ATTD +550 Bears O19.5 Points Commanders Win by 1-6 +350 Bears Win by 1-6 +450 Bears +14.5 (one leg of a Teaser) Bears Commanders O36 (one leg of a Teaser) Pretty sure these are all 1u plays. I feel most nervous about the Kmet line. Edited October 5, 2023 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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