Broncofan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 26 minutes ago, Broncofan said: DJ Moore hits all 3 lines in the FIRST Q. LOL. On the flip side Dynami Brown wide open for a TD by 3-4 yards and Howell overthrows him in the EZ. Then Mooney open in EZ but Fields floats it a beat too late and CB gets there. Soooo close to 2 longshots. Ack. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 The script is looking great for my card so far 🤑 DJ Moore O3.5 ✅ Bears O19.5 ✅ We love first half hits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: On the flip side Dynami Brown wide open for a TD by 3-4 yards and Howell overthrows him in the EZ. Then Mooney open in EZ but Fields floats it a beat too late and CB gets there. Soooo close to 2 longshots. Ack. And then on the Logan Thomas TD - Cole Turner flashes wide open early for walk in TD, Howell is literally staring at him...and doesn't throw it. Thomas comes open later for the TD...but man. Snakebitten on ALL 3 TD props. Can't complain, they all had their chances....hopefully we get some more. Fingers crossed. Edited October 6, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EAGLES3658 Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 21 minutes ago, Broncofan said: And then on the Logan Thomas TD - Cole Turner flashes wide open early for walk in TD, Howell is literally staring at him...and doesn't throw it. Thomas comes open later for the TD...but man. Snakebitten on ALL 3 TD props. Can't complain, they all had their chances....hopefully we get some more. Fingers crossed. Brown wide open for another TD and Howell throws it way behind him. Note to self: Stay away from Washington. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, EAGLES3658 said: Brown wide open for another TD and Howell throws it way behind him. Note to self: Stay away from Washington. WEEK 5 TNF RECAP For +1100, +1200 & +600 I can't ask for better chances for Dynami Brown (X2!!!), Cole Turner & Darnell Mooney - literally all had TD looks and were open and the ball doesn't get there due to bad throws (Mooney, Brown x2) / bad read (Turner). That's the game, but man that's really rough to not hit even 1. There's a diff world where we're celebrating 3 TD's tonight, if not 4. To top it off, Dotson is wide open for a 20-yard gain late in the 4Q, and Howell throws it OB and pulls him off the field. Sigh, NGL that's rough to watch literally 5 bad breaks to 0 good breaks. That's the game, but same thing happened last 2 weeks, too (along with bad calls). Oh well. PLAYER PROPS - 2-2, +3.6U Jahan Dotson's underuse (along with Terry Mclaurin) is criminal, but it's real. 0-3 on the season with him, bad call, no need to see any more evidence. If you can't get right vs. the CHI D, well, it's crazy to say it, but the WAS O prefers to use Curtis Samuel. Unless Samuel gets hurt, Dotson isn't usable. Brian Robinson got game scripted out of the run game, it happens. Fortunately Josh Fields O47.5 rush yds 2U easily hits, and DJ Moore hits ALL of the alt lines, so it's a still a +3.6U night. But it hurts that it could have been so much more, namely... TD PROPS - 0-3, -2U - ALL THREE GUYS literally had TD's, were open and targeted in 3 of the 4 plays...and 3 bad throws (Mooney, Brown), and 1 missed reads (Turner) - goose egg. Worse yet, Dynami Brown had TWO missed clear TD's. Ugh, ugh, ugh. Still, they were correct evals - so take a deep breath, and have faith the good calls will lead to good results. It's still a W, but somehow +1.6U feels so small, given the clear TD chances, and Dotson's missed 20-yarder at the 2nd last drive. Still, it's a win, so hopefully fortune will turn on Sunday - after Cole Turner getting tackled at the 1 last week and being open for the walk-in TD, I feel like we're due lol. On to Sunday! WEEK 5 TO TNF ATS/ML: 6-9-1, -3U (Wk 5: nil) PLAYER PROPS: 27-33, -3.9U (Wk 5 TNF: 2-2, +3.6U) LONGSHOT TD: 9-51, +19.6U (Wk 5 TNF: 0-3, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700) TOTAL - +12.7U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 to TNF: +1.6U 229U stake so far) Edited October 6, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) One more addition to the SUN lineup - Tyler Conklin O27.5 rec yds DK 2U; 50 yd alt line pending - DEN's TE pass D is awful, masked by 2 games with LV (they've thrown it 7x total to the TE's through 4 weeks, only 1x week 1) and MIA (didn't need the TE at all with the run game going nuts) - WAS went 8-92-1 and CHI went 10-113-2 on our porous middle of the field D. Even if Justin Simmons plays, unlikely he's matched up on Conklin. Conklin's limited YAC ability are why I don't go past 50+, but given he's the clear #2 target, gotta take the main & 50+ yard prop. NGL, it's pretty scary to rely on Nathaniel Hackett as OC and Zach Wilson to get a prop to come through, but this total is way too low to pass up. Also, Brandon Aiyuk's 80+ & 100+ rec yd alt line props & D'Andre Swift's 90+ & 110+ rush yd alt lines came through, so added to the Sun card - full card below. Waiting on Breece Hall 80+ rush yds & 100+ rush yd alt lines and Tyler Conklin 50+ rec yd alt lines to round out the player props. Hoping we'll get a +400 TD prop on Conklin too, I'd likely dive in at that number. BOL! Edited October 6, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 On 10/5/2023 at 10:58 AM, SaveOurSonics said: Alright, here's my full TNF Card..... Darnell Mooney O29.5 Receiving Brian Robinson O6.5 Receiving Terry McLaurin O57.5 Receiving Antonio Gibson U22.5 Rushing Cole Kmet U31.5 Receiving DJ Moore O3.5 Receptions Sam Howell O238.5 Passing Justin Fields O193.5 Passing Darnell Mooney ATTD +550 Bears O19.5 Points Commanders Win by 1-6 +350 Bears Win by 1-6 +450 Bears +14.5 (one leg of a Teaser) Bears Commanders O36 (one leg of a Teaser) Pretty sure these are all 1u plays. I feel most nervous about the Kmet line. Pretty bad TNF slate for me, but we're still up +1.75u on a 8-6 day (counting the Teaser legs in the record, but not the +units). Really thought I had a great chance at Bears Win by 1-6. Mooney SO CLOSE to a TD. Mooney SO CLOSE to getting his yardage prop if he just caught 1 of his 4 targets (all were deep iirc). SO CLOSE to Terry McLaurin (10 yards off, fell down on his last catch, WIDE OPEN on the last play of the game where Howell went to Cole freaking Turner). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) The alt lines finally came out for Breece Hall & Tyler Conklin. Took 3 alt lines for Breece Hall - 80+ rush yds +220 1U & 100+ rush yds +500 0.5U & 120+ rush yds +1100 0.5U DK - as it’s such a smash spot (Hackett deciding to keep it a timeshare always a risk but the smash potential is that good). Tyler Conklin 50+ Rec yds +280 1U DK same situation. Obv B365 likely better. I also have a 2nd free 0.4U bet from DK so I’m going YOLO with Breece Hall top Sunday rusher at +2000 So 3 late slate TD props added: NEW FRI PM: Tyler Conklin +400 DK / +4000 FD 0.8U / 0.2U - DEN D is horrendous vs TE. Conklin clear #2 target. Scary to rely on Zach Wilson & Hackett. But too good of a matchup NEW FRI PM: Brandon Johnson +600 DK / +7000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U - DJ Reed and next outside CB are out. Johnson functions as the big move TE in the RZ. Gotta trust it at that number. NEW FRI PM: Xavier Gipson +1600 FD / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - Starting to get looks as gadget guy and 3rd WR over Cobb in NYJ. Plus elite punt returner. See Conklin on concerns lol. That completes the Sun card - updated on page 346 - linked below. BOL! Edited October 6, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 6 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Xavier Gipson I love this play, the Jets were really trying to get him the ball last week and he is pretty electric. I picked him up in some deep bestball leagues 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) 4 minutes ago, adamq said: I love this play, the Jets were really trying to get him the ball last week and he is pretty electric. I picked him up in some deep bestball leagues NGL if the early slate goes well or the FD line goes even higher (which we do see with long odds TD plays on FD) I might take a 2nd 0.4U play. As a contrast he’s +600 on Bodog & +800 on DK lol. We’ll see. Edited October 6, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 On 10/4/2023 at 1:21 AM, SaveOurSonics said: Mark Andrews Under - Coming off a monster game against the Browns, Andrews faces what is currently the NFL's best TE defense in Pittsburgh. I like buying Unders on guys following big games. Cole Kmet Under - Same story. Commanders TE defense is great & Kmet is coming off a big game. Hunter Henry Under - If any defense has been better against TEs than PIT this year, it's been the Saints. Henry coming off of another nice game which should make this nice value. Travis Kelce Under - Blasphemy. However, the Vikings allow BY FAR the fewest Yards per Catch to the TE position. That said, not sure I want to bet a Kelce Under in a projected high scoring game. Evan Engram Under - He's been a consistent threat this year which should make for a stable line on his season average. The Bills are one of 7 NFL defenses allowing less than 30 yards per game to the TE position. Again, risky in a game projected to score points. I know this is bad process, but the Kmet Under being a terrible play has left me skittish on my other TE Unders…. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 ML Parlay of the Week Lions / Colts / Ravens / Chiefs / 49ers 0.5u @ +1000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 (edited) On 10/4/2023 at 1:21 AM, SaveOurSonics said: Rushing Breece Hall Over - Broncos have the worst YPC run defense in the league (yes, I know the Dolphins skewed this some). The Jets need to keep ramping up Breece. David Montgomery Over - The Panthers have one of the worst run defenses in the league & the Lions are favored by almost 10 points. This feels playable up to around 80 yards. James Conner Over - Despite what I heard last week when betting the Henry prop, the Bengals have one of the worst YPC run defenses in the league. Conner has been really good. The Cards are a sneaky bet to upset Cincy. Devon Achane Over - The Giants are another run d I want to pick on. Curious what this number ends up at. I could see playing this up to 75... I dropped 1u on each of these plays. Will probably drop another unit at the casino on each. On 10/4/2023 at 1:21 AM, SaveOurSonics said: Rhamondre Stevenson Under - I'm worried this number will be crazy low after a miserable game against Dallas, but if it isn't (anywhere between 45-55), I'm hitting the Under. Zeke continues to take work & the Saints have a strong front. And this one. The number is 55.5 which is a smash value imo. I'll probably lay another unit on this when I go to the casino. And the Swift O63.5 😉 Edited October 6, 2023 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 Can anyone explain to me why the openinging line on KC was -6 and now its 3.5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted October 7, 2023 Share Posted October 7, 2023 12 minutes ago, twslhs20 said: Can anyone explain to me why the openinging line on KC was -6 and now its 3.5? I was also curious on this too. I feel like KC -3.5 is a solid play, same with SF -3.5 Houston ML, NYJ ML Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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