Broncofan Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) 25 minutes ago, adamq said: Jayden Reed is the Packers WR I was looking at from a fantasy perspective. I think he is locked in as their slot and has some eye popping advanced stats so far this year He does - but Nate Hobbs is by far the best CB on the LV team. Hobbs being the toughest matchup was why I passed on that low #. EDIT: Wow, Hobbs is out. Ok, I’m adding Jayden Reed o33.5 Rec yds 2U & 50+ Rec yds +200 1U FD Great call. Edited October 9, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) So looking at this more I think all 3 GB WR’a are projected 15+ yds too low. And they’re all TD value plays at their number. Why? - LV is 28th in pass defense DVOA. Now they’re missing their best CB. They faced the Chargers 1st game without Mike Williams, DEN without Jeudy (and Mims barely played) and the dreadful PIT pass O. And they’ve still given up 560+ yds to WR’s and 6 TD’s in 4 games. -The only time they faced a fully functional pass O Davis & Diggs went for 6/80+ each. -They’re missing Nate Hobbs and 2 other CB are hurting (David Long & Jakorian Bennett) -I know a huge part of the low Vegas #’s is that GB looked dreadful vs the DET D last week on TNF. But that night GB was missing 2 starters on OL (Jenkins & Runyan left early) then the top backup T left in game (Tom). Well guess what? They are ALL back. And when they’re back they’re a top 5 pass pro unit. Helping Maxx Crosby in pass pro with chips is why I’d pass on Luke Musgrave this week and until Aaron Jones gets up to his usual snap count I’ll avoid him too. -We know that all 3 WR have volume and trust with Jordan Love. And again with such a low # it’s easier to take the dive. My original projections with Hobbs playing: Doubs 8+ targets, 6-70 Watson 6-7 targets, 4-60 Reed 4-5 targets, 3-35 With Hobbs out I’ve updated Reed to 4-45+ and taken a little off everyone else - but those all merit main line plays and 1st alt line. It’s scary but have to trust it. So I’m addition to Reed I have to take Christian Watson o41.5 Rec yds 2U & 70+ Rec yds +320 1U and Romeo Doubs o45.5 Rec yds 2U & 70+ Rec yds +260 1U DK. And pray they don’t get hurt lol. But at least 2 WR’s should get to their numbers and at those numbers there’s a real chance all 3 hit main lines with some alt line goodness. It’s scary but have to trust my evals esp given the above context. Obv if it’s not a GB pass & heavy Jacobs day I’m in trouble - but if you get the gamescript right with these matchups barring injury this is where you fire away. Fingers crossed! Edited October 10, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 no complaints on my weekend I do just wish lamar had 3 more completions that would of been a +1550 hit and it was doable. Ah well played 20 completions they hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 37 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: no complaints on my weekend I do just wish lamar had 3 more completions that would of been a +1550 hit and it was doable. Ah well played 20 completions they hit. The Ravens had 8 drops. So he couldve had 20 completions if his receivers only had 5 drops instead of 8. Thats rough. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 On 10/4/2023 at 12:06 AM, SaveOurSonics said: Jets O5.5 Wins (1.25u @ -125) - They'll need 5 more wins, Oh this looks fun.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) It was another big weekend. Excited to count all the numbers (gonna wait for tomorrow to add up all tickets and do the math). For what feels like the fourth time in a row, I took the momentum into the primetime game with another HEAVY LEAN. Just after kickoff, it was obvious I was in the green for the day, so I threw 3u on 49ers ML @ -200. I also threw 1.5u on Cowboys U19.5 points. BANG! That was in addition to a 49ers -3.5 ticket I had + at least 2 separate Teasers that had 49ers +3.5 on them. When I tell you I had the utmost confidence the 9ers were going to sock that team in the mouth....I put my money where my mouth is. Great day here for props, quick summary of what hit: Travis Etienne O63.5 David Montgomery O69.5 - Easy. 2u play. Breece Hall O60.5 - Did this on a single carry. 2u play. De'Von Achane O55.5 - So, so easy. 2u play. D'Andre Swift O63.5 - I'd argue I was right about the Eagles propensity to throw. Fortunately they got up big toward the end & needed to kill clock. This looked very bad after 1H. Derrick Henry U77.5 - Thanks for hitting the Over last week bud! Kyren Williams U57.5 - Got close, but the Eagles front did exactly what they needed to do. Rhamondre Stevenson U55.5 - I told ya'll this number was at least 10 yards too high. Bryce Young O30.5 Attempts - He had 25 at halftime. Easy hit. Jonathan Mingo O27.5 - Yep. Miles Sanders U47.5 - Thanks Panthers. Sam LaPorta O53.5 Marquise Brown O4.5 Catches James Conner O57.5 - Probably my worst beat of the week. He looked like he was cruising to hit the Over in the 1H, until he suffered a knee injury following a long gain. It also killed my Cardinals ML & Cardinals +10 tickets.... These were all from my post on Page 345 before we even knew what the lines were. Let's win again next week. The two biggest Teaser misses of the day yesterday came from Cardinals +10 and Ravens +3.5. Very surprised neither could cover. Edited October 9, 2023 by SaveOurSonics 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 Quick update on my Futures. Just looked & they're pretty fun. Broncos U8.5 Wins Jets O5.5 Wins Cardinals O4.5 Wins Seahawks O8.5 Wins Seahawks to MAKE Playoffs Chargers to MAKE Playoffs Browns to MISS Playoffs Jaguars to Win Division Bills to Win Division Lions to Win Division Eagles to Win Super Bowl 49ers to Win Super Bowl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 2 hours ago, stl4life07 said: The Ravens had 8 drops. So he couldve had 20 completions if his receivers only had 5 drops instead of 8. Thats rough. no he had 20 completions for me I needed 25 he finished with 22 damn 8 drops would of totally gotten there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) On 10/8/2023 at 12:03 PM, adamq said: Fanduel has alt reception props out 👀 Man could they put them out maybe 1 day in advance? LOL. Hopefully they’re close to B365 it’s painful how much of an edge B365 has on DK alt lines lol. Nice find. Edited October 9, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 (edited) Well I have 1 more play but it won't be up for long - Aaron Jones sounds doubtful, so Emmanuel Wilson +1000 / +17000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK has to be played. I’m told it’s +1400 on B365 so guys get out there. I doubt it lasts long up there. Edited October 9, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 I love playing the WRs Overs with Aaron Jones likely out. Despite the fact he's my favorite of the bunch, I'm worried Christian Watson is the riskiest of the group. I do expect him to ascend to WR1 status sooner rather than later, but with the Raiders pass rush (Crosby) I expect the Pack to utilize a quick passing game. That said, Watson is the type of receiver who can turn a 7-yard slant into a 40-yard gain. Chewing on everything now. I'll place some bets here in the next few hours. As of right now, I like the Over in this game & I like it to be a close game. Rather than banking on either, I'll likely Tease Packers +9 / O40, in addition to whatever props I find. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions, up to 8.5 receptions on the alt line - He has played 2 games with Jimmy this year. He had 10 and 12 targets in those games. He is a timing WR playing with a timing QB. Davante will draw a lot of attention, as the packers obviously want to prevent him from having a big revenge game, and I think the packers will really gear up to stop Jacobs tonight and will crowd the middle of the field against Jimmy, so I think that will leave Jakobi with a lot of room to work with. He seems to really have a good connection with Jimmy, so that is why I am comfortable laddering this. Doubs over 3.5 receptions / 47.5 rec yards - He was the clear cut #1 WR last week. He has had 12 and 13 targets the last two weeks. He is a well-rounded player that runs routes to all levels of the field. Love clearly trusts him. (please note these are two individual straight bets) Jayden Reed over 34.5 rec yards - They scheme him touches and he is good with the ball in his hands. 35 yards should mean 3 catches or so from him, which is reasonable. Packers +8 / Over 39 teaser - Packers struggle with physical teams. The raiders are not a physical team. They had a long week to prepare for this game. I will take them with the extra points over 7. I don't think either defense is very good so I will pair it with the over. Raiders may try and run jacobs to start the game, but I think they actually may need to throw the ball to the outside early in the game to try and open the middle of the field. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 Everything tells me Packers win this game…. …..but I can’t bring myself to take their ML, +2.5, or even Tease them again at +9.5. Already on Pack +9.5 to finish a Teaser & decided not to over-leverage myself on a play I’m not super confident in. I ended up playing the following Player Props: Josh Jacobs O74.5 - Green Bay’s front is not imposing. LV knows they’ll need to get the ball to DAdams, they know GB will know that, so the best way to force attention off Adams is via play action. Expect them to start heavy Jacobs to see how effective it is early. Jordan Love O241.5 - No AJones, I expect GB to air it out this game against a weak secondary. Christian Watson O47.5 - Stick with that theme with the teams to deep threat. Jayden Reed O35.5 - Thread play of the day it would seem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 11 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Jayden Reed O35.5 - Thread play of the day it would seem. Could have hit on the first drive with a better pass! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted October 10, 2023 Share Posted October 10, 2023 8 hours ago, thebestever6 said: no he had 20 completions for me I needed 25 he finished with 22 damn 8 drops would of totally gotten there. Oh ok I misread. Yeah you still would’ve gotten it if all those drops didn’t occur. So that definitely sucks. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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