Broncofan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 OK more alt lines out for my main Sun card (main lines already played at 2U each) & a couple of TD / 1 MNF player prop added: Jonathan Taylor 90+ rush yds +250 1U & 120+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK - can’t resist the smash spot 120+ given CAR rush D weaknesses & great IND run game. Mike Evans 80+ Rec yds +250 1U / 100+ Rec yds +550 0.5U / 120+ Rec yds +1200 0.5U DK - 120+ too tempting given HOU pass rush ineffective. Demario Douglas 70+ rec yds +310 1U DK - already covered this. NEW ADDED FRI PM for MNF - Tyler Conklin o26.5 Rec yds 2U DK alt lines pending (want 50+) for MNF - LAC D terrible Vs TE. LONGSHOT TD Chris Rodriguez / Cole Turner both +1500 / +18000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - more about FOMO if I’m being honest lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 8 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Can't get a good read on tonight's game so I'm staying away from a ATS / O/U perspective. That said I did fire off 2 Player Props: Diontae Johnson O56.5 Receiving - His target share is ramping up by the week. I don't care if Pickett or Trubisky are in, they look for him. Will Levis O202.5 Passing - The Steelers have a pretty miserable secondary & weather conditions aren't bad tonight. With Levis having a big arm, he could do this in just a few completions. ✅✅ Bang. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Jeff Wilson Rushing O14.5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 Turned off the game on that 4th down with a minute left, assumed it was over.. very nice surprise this morning to see they called a penalty, giving Chig a chance to get his stats up. Great job refs! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, Broncofan said: OK more alt lines out for my main Sun card (main lines already played at 2U each) & a couple of TD / 1 MNF player prop added: Jonathan Taylor 90+ rush yds +250 1U & 120+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK - can’t resist the smash spot 120+ given CAR rush D weaknesses & great IND run game. Mike Evans 80+ Rec yds +250 1U / 100+ Rec yds +550 0.5U / 120+ Rec yds +1200 0.5U DK - 120+ too tempting given HOU pass rush ineffective. Demario Douglas 70+ rec yds +310 1U DK - already covered this. NEW ADDED FRI PM for MNF - Tyler Conklin o26.5 Rec yds 2U DK alt lines pending (want 50+) for MNF - LAC D terrible Vs TE. LONGSHOT TD Chris Rodriguez / Cole Turner both +1500 / +18000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - more about FOMO if I’m being honest lol. One more MNF play to get on early - Donald Parham +400 / +4500 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - DK kept at this range with Everett likely back, but I really don't think it matters. Already dropped to +370 / +4000. I'll take 0.4U on +400 now, and I'm going to take the 50% MNF boost and look to get Parham up to +550 range if it stays at +370 now (even if it's +350 I'll get +525 with the boost), but I've locked in the +4500 2+ DK as it's not worth using the boost on prob-wise. EDIT FRI PM - He was also +500 on TheScore (Canuck book) so I added my 2nd 0.4U play there. Obv if you still haven't, taking the 50% MNF boost for a +350 or better play gets you to +500 or better. BOL! Edited November 3, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, adamq said: Turned off the game on that 4th down with a minute left, assumed it was over.. very nice surprise this morning to see they called a penalty, giving Chig a chance to get his stats up. Great job refs! One thing about Okonkwo going forward - his usage was higher vs. ATL because they didn't have any pass rush after Grady Jarrett went down after the 4th play (!!!) of the game. This game the pass rush PIT provided esp with TJ Watt, the Titans responded by keeping Okonkwo in to block. Levis' willingness to go downfield is what then translated to a big day for Kyle Phillips. Next week, when they face TAM, who's better in run D than pass rush, it's a better opp for Okonko, but Antoine Winfield is a big reason why TAM is stingy to TE's. If he's out, then Okonkwo becomes a big spot to leverage, but otherwise it's likely a pass until the next week (JAX). I know ppl will dismiss Kyle Phillips, but TAM offers the worst slot CB matchup, so I hope the books still think Westbrook-Ikhine is the WR2 with Burks likely out - it's almost certainly Phillips. Both his yardage & TD props are worth tracking for Week 10. Edited November 3, 2023 by Broncofan 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 (edited) With some more injury news, and more lines opening up, some more TD plays became available: NEW ADDED FRI PM - Darryton Evans +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - against NO's pass D, the RB is the target there. With CHI clearly using him (UGH) as a 3rd down back, have to play these odds for a half-stake. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Khadarel Hodge +800 / +6000 2+ TheScore (+5000 on DK & +5500 Bodog) 0.4U / 0.1U - with news Drake London is indeed out, Kyle Pitts gets an upgrade - but so do all the WR's. Hodge gets as many targets and more snaps than Van Jefferson & Mack Hollins - but he's priced at least 2x as wider as either. So have to take the half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Cedric Tillman +800 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - David Bell is out, DPJ got traded, and Deshaun Watson is actually playing. Tillman's not even listed on FD or TheScore (lol), but he's +500 on Bodog, which seems right. As it is, he's in line to split WR3 work with Marquise Goodwin. Add in the potential for a blowout where the backups play more, I'm definitely OK with the half-stake play. Finally, on the prop side Kyle Pitts came in at O41.5 rec yds on DK, and his 70+ +320 & 100+ +1000 (!!!) 0.5U - the 100+ play is likely a donation, but those are crazy +1000 odds I couldn't resist (I can't even imagine what B365 will be). So gotta take the full 3.5U stab. NEW ADDED FRI PM - with news that Curtis Samuel is out, that activates one of my 2023 lessons learned - never play Jahan Dotson as long as Curtis Samuel is playing. WIth Samuel out, Dotson thrived with 100+ yards, and NE's pass D is focused on eliminating the #1 guy, and allowing others to thrive. That's Dotson's time to shine with Terry Mclaurin drawing JC Jackson. So Jahan Dotson O42.5 rec yds 2U FD / 70+ rec yds +270 1U DK / 100+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK gets added to the SUN slate card. Full card updated on page 365, if you want the summary in 1 place to tail picks: Rasheed Shaheed alt lines are the only ones pending, my other SUN plays all have their alt lines in (Kamara B365/US FD, you know to take the alt 6-7 catch ladder even though I can't - sigh). So assuming Shaheed plays do come in, that's 34U with 10 player props for SUN (assuming 1.5U from Shaheed alt lines), 7U in 10 TD props, and 4U in ATS/ML plays for on Sunday alone. At 45U for Sunday that's certainly enough for now (already have another 11.5U committed to MNF). Let's have a big Week 9 SUN! Edited November 3, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trojan Posted November 3, 2023 Share Posted November 3, 2023 I'm only doing one draftkings daily main contest lineup this week and I really like it. QB: Derek Carr v. CHI RB: Alvin Kamara v. CHI RB: Jonathan Taylor v. CAR WR: Ceedee Lamb v. PHI WR: Chris Olave v. CHI WR: Demario Davis v. WAS TE: Kyle Pitts v. MIN FLEX: Jaylin Hyatt v. LVR DST: Browns v. ARI I may make a couple variants lineups with Hyatt and the Browns defense changed up, but the core group above I'm really liking. Carr + Kamara + Olave against Chicago seems like it could be a big trio to me, but maybe I am dumb. Carr's been on a hot streak of volume. Jonathan Taylor has been time sharing, but producing and the Panthers have been run on. Ceedee in a game where you likely have to pass can be WR1, it's also the later game of the lineup and I like to have a guy that can climb me late in the contest. Demario Davis is a fast guy that has been getting more work and has injuries opening up even more potential work. Pitts has a QB change and Drake London out so it might be his best opportunity to shine this year yet. Hyatt is a budget $3000 flex where Daniel Jones may come back and he has enough speed to maybe get a long TD or something, the Raiders don't have really have speed on defense so maybe it works? Browns are up against Clayton Tune so YOLO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 (edited) Added Juwan Johnson +440 TheScore / +4000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - no explanation needed. Actually got 2 EZ looks last week first game Back. As long as RZ struggles continue he’s getting more looks. Edited November 4, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 (edited) @Broncofan particularly love the plays this week. Going to tack on Joe Mixon over 62.5 rushing yards -110 for Sunday night, and 75+ yard milestone at +130. - He’s getting almost all the carries at this point - No Milano and Daquon Jones huge for BUF run D. - Mixon looked surprisingly great last week. - Rushed for 20 and 105 in the Divisional Round last year (with a complete mess of an OL, mind you) - Honestly, I think we roll them and have the rushing script on our side. Edited November 5, 2023 by SmittyBacall 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 2 hours ago, Broncofan said: Added Juwan Johnson +440 TheScore / +4000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - no explanation needed. Actually got 2 EZ looks last week first game Back. As long as RZ struggles continue he’s getting more looks. dang how many sports books do you recommend having I already have 3 but these are good odds +370 on dk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 (edited) 13 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: dang how many sports books do you recommend having I already have 3 but these are good odds +370 on dk. I think the 3 best are clearly B365 / DK / FD. Bodog / Bovada have better 2-TD odds and occasionally get the odd LONGSHOT that’s out of line. Score falls in that same cat but I’m not sure it’s in US. Those are the 5 I have that I check regularly. SI is a really niche Canuck book I can’t really suggest to anyone as it’s maybe 1x every 3/4 weeks they have this insane out of line prop. Bodog and Betonline are 2 books I keep because of ON laws when you leave the province then DK & FD are not playable as they are registered so can only be played in-province (and their site detection gets past VPN’s). BOL has awful odds though so I never use unless I’m out of country. Same for Bodog their player props and alt lines are usually same (main) or far far worse (alt lines). Edited November 4, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: @Broncofan particularly love the plays this week. Going to tack on Joe Mixon over 62.5 rushing yards -110 for Sunday night, and 75+ yard milestone at +130. - He’s getting almost all the carries at this point - No Milano and Daquon Jones huge for BUF run D. - Mixon looked surprisingly great last week. - Rushed for 20 and 105 in the Divisional Round last year (with a complete mess of an OL, mind you) - Honestly, I think we roll them and have the rushing script on our side. Yeah by that time on SNF I'll see if I'm up for more props (NGL putting 40U+ each Sunday is pretty damn stressful, but the alt lines are what make the props profitable, so gotta dive in). If I'm in decent shape (read: not decimated), Mixon's one of the ones I've underlined. BUF's run D without Matt Milano and Daquon Jones is a big issue for them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dash Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Taylor & Moss 50+ rushing yards each Thielen 80+ receiving yards Kelce & Hill 100+ receiving yards Mahomes & Tagovailoa 300+ passing yards Rice 25+ receiving yards Brown & Lamb 90+ receiving yards Prescott & Hurts 300+ receiving yards Burrow & Allen 250+ passing yards Kincaid over 3.5 receptions Kincaid 25+ receiving yards Kamara 50+ rushing yards Kamara 25+ receiving yards Kamara TD Kamara over 4.5 receptions ¢60 bet ( it's always a long shot) Payout -$16k ( with DK 100% profit boost ) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 4, 2023 Share Posted November 4, 2023 Mycole Pruitt and Xavier Gipson are two more longshot anytime tds I'll probably take, still have to shop around for the odds. Going back to Justin Watson agaij as well... 60 yards parlayed with a TD. But to get a 50% sgp boost I tacked on Miami +28.5 as a "gimme" leg. With the boost it comes up to +1650 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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