Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

Well. Yesterday may have been my single greatest day of NFL gambling, and it could've been even better if I hadn't gotten greedy. 

My ONLY Teaser leg that did not hit this week was Seahawks +12. Fortunately I only had that on 1 ticket, so everything else won (Eagles +4, SEA/BAL U51, Chiefs +5, Dolphins +8, Saints -1.5, Browns -1.5, Texans +4.5, Bengals +5.5, etc.). 

 

Here were yesterday's Player Props. 

CJ Stroud O250.5 Passing - Uh, ya. 

Tank Dell O41.5 Receiving - Uh, ya. 

Saquon Barkley O70.5 Rushing - Mhmm. 

Travis Kelce O70.5 Receiving - Not even close. 

AJ Brown O83.5 Receiving - Not even close. 

Josh Downs U51.5 Receiving - 1 catch for 10 yards. 

Chuba Hubbard O46.5 Rushing - Had 16 carries. Easy. 

Devin Singletary U49.5 Rushing - I couldn't believe this number when I saw it. Even with 16 carries he didn't get close. 

Mark Andrews O4.5 Receptions - Easy. 

Mark Andrews O49.5 Receiving - Easy. 

Lamar Jackson O40.5 Rushing - Easy. Take the Over on QB rushing against Seattle. 

Jahan Dotson O43.5 Receiving - Easy. 

Jahan Dotson O3.5 Receptions + Mark Andrews O4.5 Receptions - Cash the parlay. 

Joe Mixon O60.5 Rushing - Bengals were allergic to running the ball against the 31st best run defense, even when up by 2 scores. Tight. 

Dalton Kincaid O39.5 Receiving - Easy. 

 

That is in addition to also hitting on straight ATS bets in Chiefs -1.5, Bengals -2, and Eagles -3 + the Will Levis & Diontae Johnson prop hits from Thursday Night. 

 

If the Jets can cover 10 points tonight, it's gonna be really fun cashing out these tickets at the 'sino. Among those pending bets is a 13-leg Teaser that is only Jets +10 away from hitting now. $25 pays $1,000. Go Jets. 

Here's the Player Props I'm still considering for tonight: 

Zach Wilson O215.5 Passing - The Chargers have, by far, the worst pass defense in the league & it's even worse on the road. They also have a top 10 run defense which has been particularly strong since getting Bosa back, so the Jets will need Zach at home. 

Garrett Wilson O65.5 Receiving - Same logic, different name. 

Keenan Allen O74.5 Receiving - The line isn't as low as I'd like it to be with the perception that Keenan faces elite CBs tonight, but he should avoid both Sauce & DJ Reed in the slot & eat. Slot receivers have killed the Jets this year. 

 

[N4L]

Gerald Everett over 2.5 rec 

Ekeler over 4.5 rec / 36 rec yards

GW over 67 rec yards

Breece over 2.5 rec /20 rec yards / longest rec over 10.5 yards

[11sanchez11]

ATL is only -2 v AZ... I was hoping AZ would be a big underdog so I could take the ML. Hoping with the Dobbs hype this week ppl wouldnt realize he has actually been pretty bad after week 3. I guess his success being v ATL didn't help lol

[adamq]

4 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Jaguars-Eagles-Chiefs, which team worries you the most about winning their division? I'm assuming its Jaguars especially since Texans have beaten us already 

I think KC and Philly are almost locks if the QBs stay healthy... This knee with Hurts is something to watch. Dallas could definitely catch them if Mariota has to play for an extended period of time

[adamq]

One of my narrative bets, I took ekeler 3+ tds at +2700 for some small change. He has a foundation that gets money with every td, begs for touches to get his fantasy points up, and besides him LAC only has Allen (and Parham) to rely on in the pass game.  1 down...

[Broncofan]

WEEK 9 MNF RECAP

Well that was a brutally bad luck night for Breece Hall & Austin Ekeler rec / rec yds backers, although Ekeler was more the problem that just misfortune for Hall

-Hall had 3 runs for 25+ yards called back by holding penalties

-Hall has an 18 yard catch called back by penalty

-Hall then gets subbed out in garbage time down 3 scores and watches on Michael Carter on the last drive alone goes 4/25+.   

-Ekeler drops not 1, not 2, but three passes on his own - and a D hold penalty isn't added to his 3rd catch as it should have been, but wiped off the board.   That's 6 catches he normally makes and an easy O4.5 catch win.

On the TD front, Parham gets an EZ target (but high and wide), while Conklin gets stopped at the 5 and the 1 (of course) on the last drive of the game (and he also was subbed out by Uzomah for 2 plays, who dropped a TD).

Still, it could have been a -13U night (DK didn't offer the alt line for Parham with Everett active, which was a blessing)....so that last drive was a +8.2U swing, and it "only" cost me -4.8U on the night.   Given I was looking at the 0-fer, I'll take it (although the Conklin TD would have broken me into small profit time lol). 

Going forward, I'll need to pass on Parham yardage props unless Everett is out, but the Conklin/Parham TD plays at +500 range were fine for the opps / snaps they got.   Ekeler & Hall were unfortunate, that's gambling sometimes.

On to Week 10!

WEEK 9 to MNF

ATS/ML: 16-21-2, -2.2U (WK 9 FINAL - 2-2, -0.3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 72-70, +54.4U  (WK 9 FINAL - 9-9, +3.9U)

LONGSHOT TD: 15-129 - -20.0U  (WK 9 SNF - 3-17, -1U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600)

TOTAL - +32.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; 584U stake so far)

Edited November 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

9 hours ago, adamq said:

I think KC and Philly are almost locks if the QBs stay healthy... This knee with Hurts is something to watch. Dallas could definitely catch them if Mariota has to play for an extended period of time

Yea Philly does have a brutal schedule coming up but up 3 games with 1 win over Dallas helps alot. My typical negative self is concerned about Houston but also i dont think they have looked great the last 4 weeks either. Losing to Falcons and Panthers is pretty bad and barely beating Saints and Buccs isnt great but its not like we are murdering teams either. I do think the +600 price is interesting tho

[Broncofan]

WEEK 10 TNF

I was going to pass on most props given it’s TNF but the CAR totals are so low besides Thielen that there are a couple of Panther spots worth playing.   There are no CHI alt lines (not likely to take more than 1 given higher target #’s coming). 

 

PLAYER PROPS

Hayden Hurst O13.5 Rec yds 2U (EDIT WED PM:  now O16.5), 40+ rec yds +400 (!!) 1U, 60+ rec yds +1200 0.5U - CHI pass D vs WR & run D are their best parts.  But they allow TE & RB to get yards, TE’s get 50+ yards a game (28th in DVOA).   With this low # a main line and 30+ Rec yd alt line is an easy call.  EDIT WED PM:   The alt lines are out, and man they're wide.   No Stephen Sullivan, so it's only 2 TE's playing, against a bottom 5 DVOA D vs. TE.   Hurst hasn't hit 60+ in over 2+ seasons, but if there's a time he'd do it, it's now.   Stay healthy, soak up the targets

Chuba Hubbard O13.5 Rec yds 2U (EDIT WED PM: now O16.5), 40+ rec yds +400 1U - the other area where CHI D isn’t good - RB pass D (30th in DVOA).  While Kamara got gamescripted out after NO led - the RB got 80+ Rec yds; and CHI has given up an average of 60+ Rec yds a game to RB (most in the league). At 13.5 Chuba’s rec yd prop is too low to pass up and likely take a 30+ alt line.  EDIT WED PM:  FD doesn't have any alt line for either CAR guy (booo!), so I have to take the 40+ alt line but at a juiced +400 line.   NGL, if you have 30+ on B365 or US FD, I'd do that.   

Tommy Tremble O6.5 Rec yds 2U DK (EDIT WED PM:  now 9.5 lol) - with Stephen Sullivan & Lavishka Shenault leaving the game it makes CAR TE 2-guys and no short area WR except Thielen (whose prop is up in 70’s), so this is a hedge against Hurst injury.   No alt lines.   EDIT WED PM:  With no Stephen Sullivan, this feels like such a good hedge for Hurst, and frankly, could see going 3/3 here on CAR side given how low the #'s are.  

 

NEW ADDED WED PM - Darnell Mooney O27.5 rec yds 2U (now 29.5), 50+ rec yds +300 1U - this is simple, since Bagent has taken over as QB, Mooney's had at least 4 targets, and he's caught 10/14 balls thrown his way.   Add in a 15+ YPC and 10+ air yard rate, I am far more confident to take the lower # than DJ Moore.    And the 50+ yard prop is pretty tasty at +300.   

So that's  11.5U on 4 player props.

LONGSHOT TD

Tommy Tremble +1200 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U  & Hayden Hurst +700 / +9000 2+ both 0.8U / 0.2U DK  - CHI is 28th in DVOA vs TE and has given up 4 TD vs TE.  Stephen Sullivan hurt shoulder so likely main 2.   EDIT WED PM:   With confirmation Stephen Sullivan is out, DK didn't change the TD odds so I'm happy to double my Hurst stake to full-play (Tremble odds have dropped everywhere, so sticking at half-stake)

Cole Kmet +300 / +3500 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog - the top RZ threat and he’s +200 or less everywhere else.    Both Bagent & Fields look his way so no prob taking the value before I know who’s at QB.  EDIT WED PM:  I'm not sad that Fields is doubtful, as Kmet remains the #1 EZ target when they get close.  No change.

 

So that's 2.5U in TD props, and so a total of 14U overall for TNF.    Let's see if we can start off Week 10 on a roll!

Edited November 9, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Here's the Player Props I'm still considering for tonight: 

Zach Wilson O215.5 Passing - The Chargers have, by far, the worst pass defense in the league & it's even worse on the road. They also have a top 10 run defense which has been particularly strong since getting Bosa back, so the Jets will need Zach at home. 

Garrett Wilson O65.5 Receiving - Same logic, different name. 

Keenan Allen O74.5 Receiving - The line isn't as low as I'd like it to be with the perception that Keenan faces elite CBs tonight, but he should avoid both Sauce & DJ Reed in the slot & eat. Slot receivers have killed the Jets this year. 

Let's end the week 3-for-3 on Player Props! That's a nutty 17-3 record on Player Props this week. Unfortunately.....

19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

If the Jets can cover 10 points tonight, it's gonna be really fun cashing out these tickets at the 'sino. Among those pending bets is a 13-leg Teaser that is only Jets +10 away from hitting now. $25 pays $1,000. Go Jets. 

The Jets played about as bad as they possibly could have & managed to get blown out by a mediocre team on a night the Chargers didn't even play that well. Brutal beat, but still a really good weekend for me overall. 

[Broncofan]

17 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said:

ATL is only -2 v AZ... I was hoping AZ would be a big underdog so I could take the ML. Hoping with the Dobbs hype this week ppl wouldnt realize he has actually been pretty bad after week 3. I guess his success being v ATL didn't help lol

It also hurts being a road game, if it was @ATL it would probably be ATL -5.   

I will say as much as he was cringeworthy in his hire and first meetings with Kyler (PEW PEW PEW).....Gannon's had that team playing fundamentally sound ball.   The OL is legit, and the D is improving.   Throw out the CLE game, Tune isn't a NFL level QB and that was a mercy killing throwing him against the CLE D on the road.    I think ARI has either led or been tied at halftime something like 4/8 games before CLE. 

With Kyler there and Conner possibly back, the ML is def in play - but you may also want to consider the 1H ML.   I haven't decided yet on 1H ML vs. ML overall (but I know I'm going to hammer Trey McBride props this weekend lol), but it's on the list for sure.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

14 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well that was a brutally bad luck night for Breece Hall & Austin Ekeler rec / rec yds backers, although Ekeler was more the problem that just misfortune for Hall

-Hall had 3 runs for 25+ yards called back by holding penalties

-Hall has an 18 yard catch called back by penalty

-Hall then gets subbed out in garbage time down 3 scores and watches on Michael Carter on the last drive alone goes 4/25+.   

-Ekeler drops not 1, not 2, but three passes on his own - and a D hold penalty isn't added to his 3rd catch as it should have been, but wiped off the board.   That's 6 catches he normally makes and an easy O4.5 catch win.

I am still in disbelief about how we lost those. Brutal! 

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, N4L said:

I am still in disbelief about how we lost those. Brutal! 

Those L's with Hall and no TD's are just misfortune-based - those I can live with (although NGL, when they keep happening it gets hard to take).   That's part of gambling.  

Conklin got tackled at the 5 and 1 - so TD +625 was a loser.  But if you keep getting +500 or better, it will keep paying off.   Hall keeps getting sub 20-yds receiving vs. vulnerable D's, or mid 50's rushing, he'll pay off.    Same with Parham, they keep going his way, +400 or +500 is still going to be a +EV play. 

Ekeler's issues do concern me, in that he's definitely losing some wiggle, make-you-miss ability.   Still he should have had 5+ catches no trouble.   It's just when a player is the reason the call fails, well, it's silly not to pay attention.    Until Josh Palmer returns, he should keep getting 8+ targets a game (Herbert missed 2 throws, so technically it's 7 with the penalty cancelling a play, but you get the idea).  

Parham yards while Everett is there,  Shaheed rec yards while everyone is healthy, Christian Watson rec yds - those are plays where you gotta take home the message their value isn't nearly so high (unless Michael Thomas goes away in NO, or Everett in LAC - no easy solution in GB).   For Breece Hall, it sucks, but bad luck is part of the game.   Move on to week 10 and the bounces eventually return some back (TBF, Conklin being at 26 yds until that 4th down conversion was one of them, happy it gave a +8.2U swing).

Edited November 7, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

For Week 10, there are no player props out yet (EDIT THU PM - ok now the slate's filling up lol), but a few ATS/ML plays stand out:

WEEK 10 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML

EARLY

SF -3 @ JAX - I think JAX has been a great story.   It's just that SF is getting Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back on O, which Williams IMO is more important to that O than anything else.   You add Chase Young to the SF D, where zone D's give Trevor Lawrence the biggest issue, I'll take the -3 here. 


LATE

DET @ LAC U48.5 - with no Josh Palmer, LAC reverted back to the dink and dunk O game plan we saw with OC Joe Lombardi last year.   While last year it was a near-crime against humanity to follow that course, with C Will Clapp replacing all-world C Corey Linsley, and only Keenan Allen providing WR threats, I can't argue this.  Here's the thing - that's an approach that limits LAC's ceiling, and it also means their drives are longer.   Then you add in DET's propensity to lean on the run and ball control game with their great OL and having BOTH David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, this screams more like a 24-17 type game.  So you give me 48.5, I'm going under here.

ARI ML +110 vs. ATL - ARI's OL is legit, and they are getting Kyler Murray back, and possibly James Conner.   ATL didn't address pass rush and losing Grady Jarrett has clearly affected them.  As much as his offseason entry was LOL-worthy, HC Jonathan Gannon has the team playing good ball, having led at halftime in 4 of the 8 games before the Week 9 CLE massacre (Clayton Tune, no chance). 

DAL Team Total O27.5 +110 FD vs NYG - I don't think I need to get too detailed with this one.  I have a hard time with OU with both teams, but I think DAL should get to 30+, so 27.5 seems like a gift. 

MNF

DEN Team Total O19.5 pts FD @ BUF -  BUF may be missing their top 3 CB's, their top 2 ILB's, top S and their all-world guys in Daquon Jones & Matt Milano.    I don't know if DEN's D can keep up with BUF's O, but I do think DEN can get to 20+ pts with that setup.   Way this loses is if Russell Wilson has one of those prime time duds.    But it's too good a value to pass up.

So that's 5U for now

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Christian Kirk O53.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK - Kirk thrives against zone, and that's SF in a nutshell. 

Brandon Aiyuk O61.5 rec yds 2U (THU PM - now 64.5),  90+ rec yds +240 1U DK - with Purdy back, and I'd hope Trent Williams, we know the SF O hums - and the pass game goes through Aiyuk.   No one on JAX can cover him, a monster game could be on the way.    One of the guys in consideration for top Sun WR yardage leader.  EDIT THU PM:  Because the line's up to 64.5, it only makes the 90+ alt line really worth considering, so I'm staying with 1 alt line here.

Christian McCaffrey O30.5 rec yds 2U (THU PM - now 31.5), 50+ rec yds +250 1U, 70+ rec yds +600 DK 0.5U - JAX's excellent run D is countered by their leakiness vs RB's, with the 5th highest per-game total yardage given up to RB's, at 49 yards / game.   With CMC, Shanny schemes to keep him involved, so that means attacking this tasty 30.5 rush prop.   I can easily see a 8/70+ ceiling, which means taking the full alt line.  

Diontae Johnson O59.5 rec yds (FRI AM: now 62.5 rec yds) 2U, 90+ rec yds +260 1U DK - another WR that thrives against zone - and that's a great spot for DJ, even before you factor in that Jaire Alexander's status is up in the air.   With no Rasul Douglas, the CB's are already vulnerable in both the slot and other corner even with Alexander - and he rarely if ever travels.   This spells a monster setup for Diontae J.  EDIT THU PM:  because the line's up to 62.5, I'm taking 90+ only. 

Jayden Reed O24.5 rec yds 2U (FRI AM: now 26.5), 50+ rec yds +320 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - on the flip side, anyone paying attention to last week's TNF game will remember that without Minkah Fitzpatrick, the PIT slot corners were absolutely roasted.   And make no mistake, Jayden Reed is a lot better than the Titans slot receivers.   Smash, smash, smash - so much that I want a 80+ yard alt line for the big #'s with his main line set so low.  EDIT THU PM - they won't even give me a 80+ alt line, so I'll take 70+ at really high odds. 

Mike Evans O60.5 rec yds +105 2U (FRI AM: now 61.5), 90+ rec yds +250 1U, 110+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK - nothing too complicated here.   Still gets a ton of targets, and TEN doesn't have a great alpha CB to limit him.   

NEW ADDED THU PM - Kyler Phillips O19.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +300 1U,  60+ rec yds +900 0.5U - those of who followed me last week should have known this prop was coming.  No Treylon Burks who's the big slot, and that's Phillips all day, against a pass funnel TAM D that is weakest in the slot.   I absolutely  will take the 40/60 here given the ceiling we saw last TNF.  B365 or US FD bettors, I would absolutely consider the 3-4-5 reception ladder for Phillips as well (sadly I'll just sit on the sidelines without access to B365 & CDN FD not offering reception alt lines), given 3+ is plus money.

NEW ADDED FRI LATE PM - Rashid Shaheed O32.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +220, 80+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - with this late breaking news on MT arrest (which doesn't guarantee he's inactive, but raises a very real possibility), that would leave Shaheed as a top 2 WR, and anytime that happens, it's smash spot. I can't be sure, but I was on fence b4 anyways, so I just took Shaheed full alt line.   Plus I figured out where to use my 2nd 0.4U bet credit - Rashid Shaheed top Sun yardage receiver +13000 YOLO lol.

...

LATE

Sam Howell O14.5 rush yds 2U DK (FRI AM: now 16.5) - SEA's pass rush is improving, but they often have trouble containing QB runs with scrambles.   With a bottom 10 OL protecting him, to me that spells a 4-5 rush / 25+ yard day.   Easy 2U play.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Trey McBride O38.5 rec yds 2U (already up to 40.5 in less than 30 mins), 60+ rec yds +240 1U, 80+ rec yds +550 0.5U & 100+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK - with Clayton Tune at QB against the #1 TE D (and top 3 pass D overall) on the road, this was a stay-away.  But he still gets almost 40% of first-looks, and TE gets 30-35% of the targets in ARI.   So yeah, SMASH SMASH SMASH.   Again, if you have B365 or US FD, I'd definitely do the 5-6-7 catch ladder as 5+ would be plus money.   Good luck on that count, I have to stay on the sidelines.  ADDED SUN EARLY GAMES ENDING:  added 3rd alt line and TD prop below.

 

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Javonte Williams O54.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U DK - nothing complicated here, DEN is leaning on the run, and Javonte's average 80+ yards the last 2 games, so going with the 80+ alt play as well.  

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dalton Kincaid O51.5 rec yds 2U (now 52.5), 80+ rec yds +300 1U DK (B365 / US FD bettors should consider the 6-7-8 reception ladder, 6+ recs is +110 right now) - DEN's D is still leaky against the TE.   Until Dawson Knox returns, we know Kincaid is Josh Allen's new security blanket. 

So that's 32.5U in 10 player props so far for SUN (only Trey McBride alt line props left), and waiting on Curtis Samuel news before deciding on Jahan Dotson at SEA.   I'm waiting on Curtis Samuel status before deciding on whether I want to dive in on Jahan Dotson or not, and just undecided on Demario Douglas vs. IND (in Germany) as well.   

In the meantime, I've played 1 of my 2 free 0.4U bet credits on a 8-leg +7000 YOLO play with Kyler Phillips O19.5 / Mike Evans O60.5 / Jayden Reed O26.5 / Diontae Johnson O62.5 / Christian Kirk O53.5 / CMC O31.5 rec yds / Trey McBride O40.5 (so I'm 7/7 I can hedge on McBride in the late slate).  And with the late-breaking MT news, I'll take that as a sign and use my 2nd 0.4U free bet credit on Rashid Shaheed most SUN rec yds +13000 YOLO play.

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Kayshon Boutte +1600 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (high likelihood to void) - why am I adding Boutte when he's been inactive the last 6 game?   Well, it's pretty clear no one stood out other than Demario Douglas.    So on the off-chance that he's active, I'm willing to gamble on a talent that I think is better than any WR on the team's active roster other than Douglas (a REALLY, REALLY low bar when I say that lol).   PPL also forget he got an EZ target in his lone game.  At +1600 I'm willing to see if he's active - if he isn't, nothing lost and it voids.

Juwan Johnson +475 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - I don't think I need to justify why, ppl know the score here.  I think his odds have stayed high not just because of Taysom Hill, but because this guy's probably back...

Jimmy Graham +2500 / +25000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U - it pains me to add him, but I can't deny he gets the odd vulture opp.   I wouldn't even play him at +1000, but at +2500?   Jeez, it's worth the half-stake stab.   If he's not ready yet, then it voids.  

NEW ADDED FRI LATE PM Rashid Shaheed +400 / +5000 2+ Bodog (+350 / +4000 2+ on DK) 0.8U/0.2U  - see MT news in player props.

NEW ADDED FRI AM Ty Chandler +850 / +10000 2+ (+700 / +9000 DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - he's the clear backup to Alexander Mattison, and we know MIN was timesharing Mattison with Cam Akers before he got hurt.   Most backups are at +500 who get real work, so I have to take the half-stake play here. 

NEW ADDED THU PM Jayden Reed +600 / +7000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - this one is out of line with other books, who have him around +400.    Easy full unit play given the matchup and the trust Love has with Reed. 

NEW ADDED THU PM Kyle Phillips +600 / +7500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - I don't really need to add more from the Player Props tout.   He's more like +400-+450 every other book.   Going the full unit there.

NEW ADDED FRI AM Cedric Tillman +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog - with him taking over as the 3rd WR and vertical / big body guy with DPJ gone, it's worth the play at these long odds, albeit for a half-stake.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Andre Iosivas +650 / +9000 2+ TD 0.8U / 0.2U FD - yes, Trenton Irwin's going to get promoted to the top 3 rotation, but it's Iosivas they add in at the RZ, so I have to give it a shot here.  He's already scored 2x this season, this is a prime spot.  

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tanner Hudson +1000 DK / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - Irv Smith got all the attention, but it flew under the radar that Hudson was out there as much as Smith, and had 1 more target.   Smith's odds are really juiced at +200, so I'll take the half-stake play esp with a HOU D that's given up 4 TD's to TE's

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Xavier Hutchinson +1100 DK / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - he's their WR4 along with John Metchie III, but with both the backup TE and FB out along with Nico Collins, that leaves Hutchinson as the other big body with Noah Brown & Dalton Schultz (and he's far more athletic and a mismatch in tight spaces than Schultz).  It's also clear OC Kevin Slowik is trying to manufacture touches for him, so the extra work, his athleticism and the lack of competition has me sold at least for the half-stake play.

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI AM Donald Parham +440 TheScore (+400 FD) / +4500 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - I don't think I need to explain why at this stage lol.

NEW ADDED FRI AM Jake Bobo +750 FD 0.4U / +10000 2+ TheScore 0.1U - with uncertainty on DK Metcalf's status, Bobo becomes very interesting.   Even if DK plays, much like CIN uses Andre Iosivas, SEA likes to use Bobo as the Parham / Juwan big-WR threat in the EZ.    Everywhere else, he's +450 or less, so this is too good to pass up for a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED DURING SUN EARLY GAMES - Trey McBride +300 TheScore / +2800 FD 0.8U / 0.2U - too good to pass up, he was +200 until just before game time, have to go here with his volume and ATL's vulnerability. 

SNF

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tyler Conklin +500 / +6500 0.8U / 0.2U FD - Nothing to add from last week, just let's get better fortune on the EZ designed 1st look  / don't get stopped at the 1 lol. 

So that's 9.5U in TD plays for Sunday daytime with 13 player props so far.  NGL, wish I had held off on Kayshon Boutte, Jimmy Graham, Xavier Hutchinson & Cedric Tillman now (2U total oh well).

Right now as of Fri AM I'm at 47U Sunday slate plays, so that's definitely enough for now (LOL & gulp at the same time).

 

WEEK 10 TNF

ATS/ML: 16-21-2, -2.2U (WK 10 TNF - )

PLAYER PROPS: 75-71, +54.9U  (WK 10 TNF - 3-1, +0.5U)

LONGSHOT TD: 15-132 - -22.5U  (WK 10 TNF - 0-3, -2.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600)

TOTAL - +30.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 TNF - -2.0U; 598U stake so far)

Edited November 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Well going early on TNF pays off with a lot of extra value in the props:

-Both Hayden Hurst & Chuba Hubbard rec yd props move from 13.5 to 16.5

-Tommy Tremble goes from O6.5 to O9.5 rec yds with news that Stephen Sullivan is out; his TD props plummet almost everywhere.    With Sullivan out, this feels like a great Hurst hedge, and given how much the CHI D allows yards to both RB & TE's, this could easily be a 3/3 day for the main props (alt lines are iffier, but they're also super-juiced, so have to take a shot given the matchup - and recognizing how good the CHI Run D is, this sets up as a pass funnel setup).

CHI's rush D has been on a tear, so I still really like those plays - and with news Sullivan is out, with the odds staying stable, I'm increasing Hayden Hurst TD props with DK +700/+9000 to 0.8U/0.2U.  With news Josh Fields is out, this actually lets me play 1 CHI receiving prop (can't touch CHI rush props with a 3-headed backfield very likely) - Darnell Mooney O27.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ rec yds +300 1U DK (already up to 29.5. main / 50+ rec yds +270). 

Why Mooney?   Well, it's a SSS, but the game film matches what I'm seeing - Bagent uses Mooney more reliably than Justin Fields did.   In the 3 games, Bagent's thrown it to Mooney at least 4x, and he's actually 10/14 in catches / targets, well above Fields' hit rate with Mooney.  Add in 15+ YPC for Mooney, that 27.5 is a lot easier to take than DJ Moore's mid-50's prop (and CAR is super stingy to TE’s & RB's in pass D).    So that's easy enough.

I've updated the full card, but it's 11.5U in 4 plays for player props, and 2.5U in 3 TD props (all TE's lol).   The CLV and TD odds gain with Tremble are awesome - but CLV matters only so much, hopefully it translates to $ in our pockets.   Let's get TNF started on a roll for Week 10!

Edited November 9, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 11/7/2023 at 4:01 PM, Broncofan said:

For Week 10, there are no player props, but a few ATS/ML plays stand out:

WEEK 10 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML

EARLY

SF -3 @ JAX - I think JAX has been a great story.   It's just that SF is getting Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel back on O, which Williams IMO is more important to that O than anything else.   You add Chase Young to the SF D, where zone D's give Trevor Lawrence the biggest issue, I'll take the -3 here. 


LATE

DET @ LAC U48.5 - with no Josh Palmer, LAC reverted back to the dink and dunk O game plan we saw with OC Joe Lombardi last year.   While last year it was a near-crime against humanity to follow that course, with C Will Clapp replacing all-world C Corey Linsley, and only Keenan Allen providing WR threats, I can't argue this.  Here's the thing - that's an approach that limits LAC's ceiling, and it also means their drives are longer.   Then you add in DET's propensity to lean on the run and ball control game with their great OL and having BOTH David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, this screams more like a 24-17 type game.  So you give me 48.5, I'm going under here.

ARI ML +110 vs. ATL - ARI's OL is legit, and they are getting Kyler Murray back, and possibly James Conner.   ATL didn't address pass rush and losing Grady Jarrett has clearly affected them.  As much as his offseason entry was LOL-worthy, HC Jonathan Gannon has the team playing good ball, having led at halftime in 4 of the 8 games before the Week 9 CLE massacre (Clayton Tune, no chance). 

DAL Team Total O27.5 +110 FD vs NYG - I don't think I need to get too detailed with this one.  I have a hard time with OU with both teams, but I think DAL should get to 30+, so 27.5 seems like a gift. 

MNF

DEN Team Total O19.5 pts FD @ BUF -  BUF may be missing their top 3 CB's, their top 2 ILB's, top S and their all-world guys in Daquon Jones & Matt Milano.    I don't know if DEN's D can keep up with BUF's O, but I do think DEN can get to 20+ pts with that setup.   Way this loses is if Russell Wilson has one of those prime time duds.    But it's too good a value to pass up.

No player props for now, but figure I want to get in on this action now, before the line changes further against those plays. 

OK, a few player props are already becoming available, and NGL I have about 6-7 player props already, and I know I'm going to target at least 3-4 more given the matchups and lines posted in prior weeks, and I have 3 TD props that I'll take now, even though FD / Bodog aren't out yet:

WEEK 10 SUNDAY SLATE

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Christian Kirk O53.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (will take 80+ / 100+) DK - Kirk thrives against zone, and that's SF in a nutshell. 

Brandon Aiyuk O61.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (will take 80+ / 100+) DK - with Purdy back, and I'd hope Trent Williams, we know the SF O hums - and the pass game goes through Aiyuk.   No one on JAX can cover him, a monster game could be on the way.    One of the guys in consideration for top Sun WR yardage leader.  

Christian McCaffrey O30.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (will take 50+ / 70+) DK - JAX's excellent run D is countered by their leakiness vs RB's, with the 5th highest per-game total yardage given up to RB's, at 49 yards / game.   With CMC, Shanny schemes to keep him involved, so that means attacking this tasty 30.5 rush prop.   I can easily see a 8/70+ ceiling, which means taking the full alt line.  

Diontae Johnson O59.5 rec yds (already 62.5 rec yds) 2U, alt lines pending (will take 80+ / 100+) DK - another WR that thrives against zone - and that's a great spot for DJ, even before you factor in that Jaire Alexander's status is up in the air.   With no Rasul Douglas, the CB's are already vulnerable in both the slot and other corner even with Alexander - and he rarely if ever travels.   This spells a monster setup for Diontae J.  

Jayden Reed O24.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (will take 50+ / 80+) DK - on the flip side, anyone paying attention to last week's TNF game will remember that without Minkah Fitzpatrick, the PIT slot corners were absolutely roasted.   And make no mistake, Jayden Reed is a lot better than the Titans slot receivers.   Smash, smash, smash - so much that I want a 80+ yard alt line for the big #'s with his main line set so low. 

Mike Evans O60.5 rec yds +105 2U (now 61.5), alt lines pending  (will take 80+ / 100+) DK - nothing too complicated here.   Still gets a ton of targets, and TEN doesn't have a great alpha CB to limit him.   

I also know there's one more play I'm definitely taking - because his team's been posted, but he hasn't shown up, so it's another smash 3.5U alt line play coming, unless no alt lines are offered. 

LATE

Sam Howell O14.5 rush yds 2U - SEA's pass rush is improving, but they often have trouble containing QB runs with scrambles.   With a bottom 10 OL protecting him, to me that spells a 4-5 rush / 25+ yard day.   Easy 2U play.

A lot of late games don't have player props yet either.

SNF/MNF

No lines are out yet for SNF or MNF

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Kayshon Boutte +1600 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (high likelihood to void) - why am I adding Boutte when he's been inactive the last 6 game?   Well, it's pretty clear no one stood out other than Demario Douglas.    So on the off-chance that he's active, I'm willing to gamble on a talent that I think is better than any WR on the team's active roster other than Douglas (a REALLY, REALLY low bar when I say that lol).   PPL also forget he got an EZ target in his lone game.  At +1600 I'm willing to see if he's active - if he isn't, nothing lost and it voids.

Juwan Johnson +475 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - I don't think I need to justify why, ppl know the score here.  I think his odds have stayed high not just because of Taysom Hill, but because this guy's probably back...

Jimmy Graham +2500 / +25000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U - it pains me to add him, but I can't deny he gets the odd vulture opp.   I wouldn't even play him at +1000, but at +2500?   Jeez, it's worth the half-stake stab.   If he's not ready yet, then it voids.  

LATE

Nothing offered yet

SNF/MNF

Nothing offered yet

 

You can see it's already quite a big slate for player props.   I have 3-4 guys targeted, some of whom shouldn't be a surprise if you've read my writeups.  But that's plenty for now, hopefully TNF finds those hidden gem values to get Week 10 off to a good start!

 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Broncofan