Weekly Bets Thread

[BStanRamFan]

Not a great game for player props, but one I'm high on is Tommy Tremble Receptions.

 

🏈2+ (+140) $25

🏈3+(+450) $15

🏈4+ (+1425)$10

He's had 2+ in 3 straight games and Panthers are without Stephen Sullivan, Shenault, and Chark. He's played 40% of the snaps in 3 straight and gets a Bears defense allowing the 6th most receptions per game and 2nd most receptions to Opp TE's.

At +140, if he gets the 2+ receptions it pays for the entire rest of the ladder +10$. If he climbs, we're golden.

2U to win 11.8U and safety nets along the way. (1U for me is $25 and I have $50 laid out across this bet)

In the same breath, if you can get Bryce Young at over 21.5 completions, it still a good number, but I'm seeing 22.5's at +money. 

Follow me on X (@propholliday) for more of my free player props. 

https://x.com/PropHolliday/status/1722429807944737236?s=20 

Edited November 9, 2023 by BStanRamFan

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

Not a great game for player props, but one I'm high on is Tommy Tremble Receptions.

 

🏈2+ (+140) $25

🏈3+(+450) $15

🏈4+ (+1425)$10

He's had 2+ in 3 straight games and Panthers are without Stephen Sullivan, Shenault, and Chark. He's played 40% of the snaps in 3 straight and gets a Bears defense allowing the 6th most receptions per game and 2nd most receptions to Opp TE's.

At +140, if he gets the 2+ receptions it pays for the entire rest of the ladder +10$. If he climbs, we're golden.

2U to win 11.8U and safety nets along the way. (1U for me is $25 and I have $50 laid out across this bet)

In the same breath, if you can get Bryce Young at over 21.5 receptions, it still a good number, but I'm seeing 22.5's at +money. 

Follow me on X (@propholliday) for more of my free player props. 

https://x.com/PropHolliday/status/1722429807944737236?s=20 

It's times like these that I really miss B365 (and no ladders on CDN FD) lol.  I took Tremble O6.5 & +1200 ATTD / +12500 2+ as soon as it came out knowing there was a good chance Sullivan was going to miss TNF, but those alt lines are just insane.   Great value call.

PS - we know it's completions, not receptions for Young.   Barring injury, strong play.

Edited November 9, 2023 by Broncofan

[BStanRamFan]

53 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

It's times like these that I really miss B365 (and no ladders on CDN FD) lol.  I took Tremble O6.5 & +1200 ATTD / +12500 2+ as soon as it came out knowing there was a good chance Sullivan was going to miss TNF, but those alt lines are just insane.   Great value call.

PS - we know it's completions, not receptions for Young.   Barring injury, strong play.

Thank you for catching that.

 

BOL tonight man 

[Broncofan]

Just now, BStanRamFan said:

Thank you for catching that.

 

BOL tonight man 

 No problem I figured you post that elsewhere (by the bottom tag) so better to catch esp on sites you only have a fixed edit time window.  

[adamq]

Tonyan +1430 with the FD 30% boost

[BobbyPhil1781]

14 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

Not a great game for player props, but one I'm high on is Tommy Tremble Receptions.

 

🏈2+ (+140) $25

🏈3+(+450) $15

🏈4+ (+1425)$10

He's had 2+ in 3 straight games and Panthers are without Stephen Sullivan, Shenault, and Chark. He's played 40% of the snaps in 3 straight and gets a Bears defense allowing the 6th most receptions per game and 2nd most receptions to Opp TE's.

At +140, if he gets the 2+ receptions it pays for the entire rest of the ladder +10$. If he climbs, we're golden.

2U to win 11.8U and safety nets along the way. (1U for me is $25 and I have $50 laid out across this bet)

In the same breath, if you can get Bryce Young at over 21.5 completions, it still a good number, but I'm seeing 22.5's at +money. 

Follow me on X (@propholliday) for more of my free player props. 

https://x.com/PropHolliday/status/1722429807944737236?s=20 

Put 2u on his O/U yards when I saw this bc FD didn't have alt receptions. He's over it by .5 yards lol. Good looking out! 

If the Bears score again and keep Carolina in passing downs, your ladder looks really damn good. Rooting for you

[thebestever6]

super happy with tonight's outcome between the tremble ladder and tailing broncofan who hit 3 out of 4 props really killed it I didn't realize Hayden Hurst hit until there were 30 seconds in the game lol.

[BobbyPhil1781]

9 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

super happy with tonight's outcome between the tremble ladder and tailing broncofan who hit 3 out of 4 props really killed it I didn't realize Hayden Hurst hit until there were 30 seconds in the game lol.

You bet his unders? 

[thebestever6]

2 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

You bet his unders? 

no Hayden Hurst was 13.5 he got to 14 lol.

[BobbyPhil1781]

5 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

no Hayden Hurst was 13.5 he got to 14 lol.

The hell.... I got him at 16.5.  Bummer!  Nice hit, though. Wish I could've joined you on that lol

[thebestever6]

3 minutes ago, BobbyPhil1781 said:

The hell.... I got him at 16.5.  Bummer!  Nice hit, though. Wish I could've joined you on that lol

I put it in on bet365 as soon as I saw broncofan posted it that sucks tough sledding.

[Broncofan]

Well that was a SWEAT....but if you had the player props AND the Tremble catch ladder, then you likely had a nice 4-5U profit day.   I ran 3-1 with the player props, but 0-3 on the TD's, so I netted a -2U day.  But let's be honest, for 50 mins of the game, we were staring 0/4 on my props and 0/3 on the Tremble ladder, so that was a nice 4Q for everyone.   Can't underestimate how bad of a gameplanner Frank Reich is - a top 5 run D and bottom 5 pass D, and they had Young under center for 3+ quarters, with no RB screens, or TE targets, until the 4Q.  

Tonight also showed the value in hitting the player props ASAP - because Hurst's O13.5 hit, but any props over that lost.    Same with Chuba Hubbard, and while it still would have hit, Tremble's O6.5 was a lot easier than O10.5 at gametime. 

Still, we'll all take it, even with a -2U night I was staring -14U with 10 mins to go in the game, so I'm not complaining (although Hurst was wide open for likely the 40+ alt line that last drive...oh well, the rest of the breaks went our way tonight lol).  On to Sunday Week 10!

 

WEEK 10 TNF

ATS/ML: 16-21-2, -2.2U (WK 9 FINAL - 2-2, -0.3U)

PLAYER PROPS: 75-71, +54.9U  (WK 10 TNF - 3-1, +0.5U)

LONGSHOT TD: 15-132 - -22.5U  (WK 10 TNF - 0-3, -2.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600)

TOTAL - +30.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 TNF - -2.0U; 598U stake so far)

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So a lot to update on my Sunday card, just like TNF, already a ton of CLV gained, and alt lines now available:

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Christian Kirk O53.5 rec yds 2U - FRI AM - alt lines added 80+ rec yds +260 1U, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK - no change in value, which surprises me.

Brandon Aiyuk O61.5 rec yds 2U (THU PM - now 64.5),  90+ rec yds +240 1U DK -  already gained a ton of CLV with 61.5 vs. 64.5, but this also changes my alt line play to 90+ alone.  

Christian McCaffrey O30.5 rec yds 2U (THU PM - now 31.5), 50+ rec yds +250 1U, 70+ rec yds +600 DK 0.5U - the line moves from 30.5 to 31.5, but being low enough, the 50+ & 70+ alt lines are still really tasty.

Diontae Johnson O59.5 rec yds (FRI AM: now 62.5 rec yds) 2U, 90+ rec yds +260 1U DK - a ton of CLV gained in 59.5 to 62.5, but because the line's up to 62.5, I'm taking 90+ only. 

Jayden Reed O24.5 rec yds 2U (FRI AM: now 26.5), 50+ rec yds +320 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - not only do I gain in CLV with the line moving from 24.5 to 26.5, the alt lines are still juiced nicely.    Sadly DK won't even give me a 80+ alt line, so I'll take 70+ at really high odds. 

Mike Evans O60.5 rec yds +105 2U (FRI AM: now 61.5), 90+ rec yds +250 1U, 110+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK - Evans is only a mild increase in CLV, but this also allows the 90 & 110 alt lines to be taken.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Kyler Phillips O19.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +300 1U,  60+ rec yds +900 0.5U - those of who followed me last week should have known this prop was coming.  No Treylon Burks who's the big slot, and that's Phillips all day, against a pass funnel TAM D that is weakest in the slot.   I absolutely  will take the 40/60 here given the ceiling we saw last TNF.  B365 or US FD bettors, I would absolutely consider the 3-4-5 reception ladder for Phillips as well (sadly I'll just sit on the sidelines without access to B365 & CDN FD not offering reception alt lines), given 3+ is plus money.

 

LATE

Sam Howell O14.5 rush yds 2U DK (FRI AM: now 16.5) - more CLV gained by going early.

NEW ADDED THU PM - Trey McBride O38.5 rec yds 2U (already up to 40.5 in less than 30 mins), 60+ Rec yds +240 1U, 80+ Rec yds +600 0.5U DK (B365 players consider the 4-5-6 catch ladder)  DK - with Clayton Tune at QB against the #1 TE D (and top 3 pass D overall) on the road, this was a stay-away.  But he still gets almost 40% of first-looks, and TE gets 30-35% of the targets in ARI.   So yeah, SMASH SMASH SMASH.   Again, if you have B365 or US FD, I'd definitely do the 5-6-7 catch ladder as 5+ would be plus money.   Good luck on that count, I have to stay on the sidelines.

 

SNF/MNF

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Javonte Williams O54.5 rush yds 2U, alt lines pending (will likely take 80+) DK - nothing complicated here, DEN is leaning on the run, and Javonte's average 80+ yards the last 2 games, so going with the 80+ alt play as well.  

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dalton Kincaid O51.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (likely will take 80+) DK (B365 / US FD bettors should consider the 6-7-8 reception ladder, 6+ recs is +110 right now) - DEN's D is still leaky against the TE.   Until Dawson Knox returns, we know Kincaid is Josh Allen's new security blanket. 

So that's 29U in 9 player props so far for SUN, and waiting on Curtis Samuel news before deciding on Jahan Dotson at SEA.   I'm waiting on Curtis Samuel status before deciding on whether I want to dive in on Jahan Dotson or not.   In the meantime, I've played 1 of my 2 free 0.4U bet credits on a 8-leg +7000 YOLO play with Kyler Phillips O19.5 / Mike Evans O60.5 / Jayden Reed O26.5 / Diontae Johnson O62.5 / Christian Kirk O53.5 / CMC O31.5 rec yds / Trey McBride O40.5 (so I'm 7/7 I can hedge on McBride in the late slate).  I haven't decided who to play as SUN leader yet.   Out of the 9 props taken - 8 have gained CLV.   That's enough for now.

 

LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

(Kayshon Boutte, Juwan Johnson & Jimmy Graham already taken b4) 

NEW ADDED FRI AM Ty Chandler +850 / +10000 2+ (+700 / +9000 DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - he's the clear backup to Alexander Mattison, and we know MIN was timesharing Mattison with Cam Akers before he got hurt.   Most backups are at +500 who get real work, so I have to take the half-stake play here. 

NEW ADDED THU PM Jayden Reed +600 / +7000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK (FRI AM:  now +550 / +6500 2+ on DK) - this one is out of line with other books, who have him around +400.    Easy full unit play given the matchup and the trust Love has with Reed. 

NEW ADDED THU PM Kyle Phillips +600 / +7500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - I don't really need to add more from the Player Props tout.   He's more like +400-+450 every other book.   Going the full unit there.

NEW ADDED FRI AM Cedric Tillman +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog - with him taking over as the 3rd WR and vertical / big body guy with DPJ gone, it's worth the play at these long odds, albeit for a half-stake.

LATE

NEW ADDED FRI AM Donald Parham +440 TheScore (+400 FD) / +4500 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - I don't think I need to explain why at this stage lol.

NEW ADDED FRI AM Jake Bobo +750 FD 0.4U / +10000 2+ TheScore 0.1U - with uncertainty on DK Metcalf's status, Bobo becomes very interesting.   Even if DK plays, much like CIN uses Andre Iosivas, SEA likes to use Bobo as the Parham / Juwan big-WR threat in the EZ.    Everywhere else, he's +450 or less, so this is too good to pass up for a half-stake play.

 

SNF/MNF

Nothing offered yet that's appealing (and FD hasn't released any TD props or player prop lines at all).

DK is still holding out on HOU-CIN (with the CIN WR situation), ATL-ARI (with Drake London status NYD) and WAS-SEA (?unclear on DK status perhaps?), while FD is holding out on HOU-CIN & ATL-ARI & NYG for TD props & the SNF/MNF TD / player props.   So far that's 6.5U in TD plays with 9 player props so far.  

Right now as of Fri AM I'm at 40.5U Sunday slate plays, pending Jahan Dotson decision, and maybe 1-2 more TD props, but that seems enough for now.   

The full card is updated on Page 368, linked below.  BOL!

 

 

 

Edited November 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

my one single bet that I'm not tailing I'm playing this week is Jameson Williams 15.5 2 u . I like some hedging against the under in the chargers game. I have a feeling this is the game he breaks out .

[SaveOurSonics]

Bit of a letdown of a TNF slate for me. One really bad bet + 2 bad beats. 

 

CAR/CHI 1H U19.5 - Hits by the hair of our chin. 

Chuba Hubbard U41.5 Rushing - Bang. 

Bryce Young O32.5 Attempts - Bang. 

Jonathan Mingo O31.5 Receiving - Despite being the highest targeted WR on the night & getting a deep target late in the game, he still could not top this. Probably the last time I bet Mingo for awhile. 

Tyson Bagent O20.5 Rushing - I really thought after a 70 yard performance last week that the Bears would lean into his legs more, but maybe the Saints are just that bad against mobile QBs. He had 17 at half & didn't record a yard in the 2H. 

D'Onta Foreman U62.5 Rushing - And this was the really bad bet. Carolina had been really stingy on the ground over their last 4 games & I thought they'd continue that.