Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Because there's so much injury news uncertainty (Tee Higgins, Trey Hendrickson & Sam Hubbard for CIN; Ronnie Stanley &  Marlon Humphrey for BAL), I'm waiting on the CIN/BAL line, but if both BAL defenders are out, that definitely has me leaning CIN's way.   But this is one where I want to see who's likely playing before committing.

In the meantime, only Burrow & Mixon have props for CIN, but all the TD lines are out, and most BAL lines are out, so 1 player prop I've added already, but also 1 more TD prop:

WEEK 11 TNF

 

ATS/ML

NEW ADDED WED PM - CIN +160 - close matchup that we now have Marlon Humphrey & Ronnie Stanley out, while CIN somehow gets Trey Hendrickson at full go.  That's a swing that has me taking the +160 side in what I see as a pick 'em.

PLAYER PROPS

Mark Andrews O51.5 rec yds (now 52.5) 2U, 80+ rec yds +280 1U & 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U FD (B365 / US FD bettors - O4.5 catches +110 <2U for me>, & 6-7 catch ladder) - I've targeted CIN's TE pass D before - and Dalton Kincaid went absolutely nuts.   Nothing different here.   Andrews "only" went 5-45 last time vs. CIN, but in the past 4 games vs. CIN he's had 8 targets minimum, and 10+ targets in 3/4 games.    If Ronnie Stanley doesn't play, it doesn't actually limit Andrews, as he doesn't stay in to block, but it emphasizes the short-intermediate pass game more, and that's Andrews.  

NEW ADDED WED PM - Ja'Marr Chase O78.5 rec yds 2U, 110+ rec yds +260 1U DK - with no Humphrey, this is one of the few times I'm willing to take the square play.  The Week 2 game was heavily influenced by Burrow being unable to throw deep or move, with no Humphrey, this is the Chase smash spot. 

LONGSHOT TD

ADDED TUES PM - Nelson Agholor +750 / ?? 2+ 0.4U/0.1 TheScore - everywhere else he's +450 to +500, and I think that's right.   NGL it kills me to take a half-stake play on a guy with his hands, but he still get a 40 percent snap count, and CIN is vulnerable to shot plays, which is where they like to use him.   Worth the half-stake play and praying he doesn't drop a gift TD this week lol.

Isiah Likely +1200 FD / +25000 2+ Sports Interaction 0.4U / 0.1U - wild 2+ TD prop, but even +1200 is value with CIN's leaky TE D.   

NEW ADDED THU PM - Charlie Jones +700 FD 0.4U / ?? 2-TD ??  OR Stanley Morgan +2000 TheScore (+1800 on FD) / +25000 2+ on DK - I'm looking at Jones now, as he's their clear 4th WR with Iosivas & Tee Higgins out...provided they activate him off IR.  He also returns punts.   But if they don't activate him, then I'll go with Stanley Morgan, as the last body left.  It's probably a donation if it's Morgan, but I just would like to have a small piece of the CIN WR room, given the BAL pass D really changes with no Marlon Humphrey.  Given his IR status clarifies by 4 PM, I'd wait to see what happens and what other books offer; if Jones is inactive, then I'll take Stanley Morgan.   

So that's 11U in props for TNF (and if you have B365/US FD, I'd take the 5-6-7 catch ladder for Mark Andrews).  BOL! 

Edited November 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Mark Andrews O51.5 rec yds (now 52.5) 2U, 80+ rec yds +280 1U & 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U FD (B365 / US FD bettors - O4.5 catches +110 & 6-7 catch ladder) - I've targeted CIN's TE pass D before - and Dalton Kincaid went absolutely nuts.   Nothing different here.   Andrews "only" went 5-45 last time vs. CIN, but in the past 4 games vs. CIN he's had 8 targets minimum, and 10+ targets in 3/4 games.    If Ronnie Stanley doesn't play, it doesn't actually limit Andrews, as he doesn't stay in to block, but it emphasizes the short-intermediate pass game more, and that's Andrews.

Love it. I will also be playing Lamar Jackson over 42.5 rushing yards. Bengals D is leaking like a sieve at the moment and have given up the third most rushing yards to QBs on the year. 

[NYRaider]

17 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Love it. I will also be playing Lamar Jackson over 42.5 rushing yards. Bengals D is leaking like a sieve at the moment and have given up the third most rushing yards to QBs on the year. 

How do you feel about Bengals ML?

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

How do you feel about Bengals ML?

Well, Hendrickson is playing.   So if Humphrey (the key to their pass coverage) and Ronnie Stanley (he's not been as good post-injury, but going to his backup makes a diff, esp if Hendrickson is playing) are inactive for BAL, I'd take CIN +160.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 15, 2023 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Well, Hendrickson is playing.   So if Humphrey (the key to their pass coverage) and Ronnie Stanley (he's not been as good post-injury, but going to his backup makes a diff, esp if Hendrickson is playing) are inactive for BAL, I'd take CIN +160.

 

 

 

 

I'm kind of loving Bengals / Steelers both ML +400

[N4L]

19 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

On 11/13/2023 at 9:59 PM, Broncofan said:

Mark Andrews O51.5 rec yds (now 52.5) 2U, 80+ rec yds +280 1U & 100+ rec yds +650 0.5U FD (B365 / US FD bettors - O4.5 catches +110 & 6-7 catch ladder) - I've targeted CIN's TE pass D before - and Dalton Kincaid went absolutely nuts.   Nothing different here.   Andrews "only" went 5-45 last time vs. CIN, but in the past 4 games vs. CIN he's had 8 targets minimum, and 10+ targets in 3/4 games.    If Ronnie Stanley doesn't play, it doesn't actually limit Andrews, as he doesn't stay in to block, but it emphasizes the short-intermediate pass game more, and that's Andrews.

Love it. I will also be playing Lamar Jackson over 42.5 rushing yards. Bengals D is leaking like a sieve at the moment and have given up the third most rushing yards to QBs on the year.

I love the over lamar 17.5 completions. That is too low imo. Also, his yardage prop might be low as well, no? 

Can someone with FD or DK tell me what a parlay of the over 17.5 lamar completions parlayed with the under 27.5 pass attempts, and the over 225 yards looks like? I am typically not a parlay guy but this seems interesting to me

Edited November 15, 2023 by N4L

[N4L]

Also, keaton mitchell's prop is 34.5. Longest rush is 13.5. Seems low, no? What say you @SmittyBacall

[NYRaider]

19 minutes ago, N4L said:

I love the over lamar 17.5 completions. That is too low imo. Also, his yardage prop might be low as well, no? 

Can someone with FD or DK tell me what a parlay of the over 17.5 lamar completions parlayed with the under 27.5 pass attempts, and the over 225 yards looks like? I am typically not a parlay guy but this seems interesting to me

They removed them both

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, N4L said:

I love the over lamar 17.5 completions. That is too low imo. Also, his yardage prop might be low as well, no? 

Can someone with FD or DK tell me what a parlay of the over 17.5 lamar completions parlayed with the under 27.5 pass attempts, and the over 225 yards looks like? I am typically not a parlay guy but this seems interesting to me

It’s all about how much CIN struggles with the run.   The TE matchup is def the easiest to exploit though why Andrews gets my love.  
 

With no Humphrey (doubtful) I don’t mind taking the square play and go Ja’Marr Chase o78.5 Rec yds & 110+ Rec yds +260 1U.    When Burrow is healthy and no Humphrey Chase has gone nuclear 2/3x.    With him doubtful and no Stanley I took CIN +160.  

Edited November 15, 2023 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

I have 2U on the Bengals ML, I've had a rough week though.

Bills, Ravens, Bengals, and USC basketball all lost as heavy favorites, SMH

[stl4life07]

Anyone using ESPN Bet? I signed up for it yesterday when it launched and they still are trying to verify me which is frustrating because I did everything right. I know people have already signed up and are betting so its frustrating that things arent going as smoothly for me. 

The only other time I had this issue was with Ceasar's. They had trouble verifying me right when I signed up but then they sent me an email like a few hours later letting me know everything was good. But with ESPN Bet its nearly 24hrs with no email and trouble still not being verified. Already I just have a feeling this sportsbook is going to be crap. 

[adamq]

31 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Anyone using ESPN Bet? I signed up for it yesterday when it launched and they still are trying to verify me which is frustrating because I did everything right. I know people have already signed up and are betting so its frustrating that things arent going as smoothly for me. 

The only other time I had this issue was with Ceasar's. They had trouble verifying me right when I signed up but then they sent me an email like a few hours later letting me know everything was good. But with ESPN Bet its nearly 24hrs with no email and trouble still not being verified. Already I just have a feeling this sportsbook is going to be crap. 

They basically just bought out the barstool app and changed some logos right? I haven't tried it yet but tbh probably not worth the trouble. I have 8+ books and almost always just use FD or DK, one of them usualy has the best lines

Edited November 15, 2023 by adamq

[stl4life07]

31 minutes ago, adamq said:

They basically just bought out the barstool app and changed some logos right? I haven't tried it yet but tbh probably not worth the trouble. I have 8+ books and almost always just use FD or DK, one of them usualy has the best lines

I just mainly want the first wager get $200 ( four $50) bonus bets promo. Always smart to get that in your bankroll. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, stl4life07 said:

Anyone using ESPN Bet? I signed up for it yesterday when it launched and they still are trying to verify me which is frustrating because I did everything right. I know people have already signed up and are betting so its frustrating that things arent going as smoothly for me. 

The only other time I had this issue was with Ceasar's. They had trouble verifying me right when I signed up but then they sent me an email like a few hours later letting me know everything was good. But with ESPN Bet its nearly 24hrs with no email and trouble still not being verified. Already I just have a feeling this sportsbook is going to be crap. 

 

58 minutes ago, adamq said:

They basically just bought out the barstool app and changed some logos right? I haven't tried it yet but tbh probably not worth the trouble. I have 8+ books and almost always just use FD or DK, one of them usualy has the best lines

 

26 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

I just mainly want the first wager get $200 ( four $50) bonus bets promo. Always smart to get that in your bankroll. 

Barstool's book is terrible odds-wise.   The only reason to go there is the 1st bonus.

Be careful though, they are offering the 1K deposit match, and it's got a 20X playthrough - so you can't get your $ out until you've bet 20K on a terrible book with awful odds.   IMO you get the $200 free bets done, and you get the heck out of Dodge.   The chances they'll offer a good line is astronomically slim.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

22 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

Barstool's book is terrible odds-wise.   The only reason to go there is the 1st bonus.

Be careful though, they are offering the 1K deposit match, and it's got a 20X playthrough - so you can't get your $ out until you've bet 20K on a terrible book with awful odds.   IMO you get the $200 free bets done, and you get the heck out of Dodge.   The chances they'll offer a good line is astronomically slim.

Yeah I’m just really wanting that $200 bonus bets. It’s taking a long time for me to just even get verified and I’ve even read some people didn’t even get their $200 bonus bets so IF I ever get verified I’m going to be concerned about them trying to screw me over on the bonus bets as well smh.