Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Just now, stl4life07 said:

Yeah I’m just really wanting that $200 bonus bets. It’s taking a long time for me to just even get verified and I’ve even read some people didn’t even get their $200 bonus bets so IF I ever get verified I’m going to be concerned about them trying to screw me over on the bonus bets as well smh. 
 

 

I'd be worried they'll say the 7-day window has expired.   Hopefully not.   But yeah, once that $200 is done, get out lol.

[SmittyBacall]

2 hours ago, N4L said:

Also, keaton mitchell's prop is 34.5. Longest rush is 13.5. Seems low, no? What say you @SmittyBacall

We’ve been getting gouged on the ground without Hubbard. Singletary killed us for multiple big runs last week.

I like the longest rushing over for all three - Jackson, Edwards, Mitchell - to be honest.

[thebestever6]

26 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Yeah I’m just really wanting that $200 bonus bets. It’s taking a long time for me to just even get verified and I’ve even read some people didn’t even get their $200 bonus bets so IF I ever get verified I’m going to be concerned about them trying to screw me over on the bonus bets as well smh. 
 

 

it took me 5 minutes. 

[SmittyBacall]

On 11/14/2023 at 6:15 PM, Broncofan said:

NEW ADDED WED PM - Ja'Marr Chase O78.5 rec yds 2U, 110+ rec yds +260 1U DK - with no Humphrey, this is one of the few times I'm willing to take the square play.  The Week 2 game was heavily influenced by Burrow being unable to throw deep or move, with no Humphrey, this is the Chase smash spot. 

I will say, regardless of last weeks totals, Chase was very clearly hampered last week with a stiff back. He’s not on the injury report this week, so I assume he’s good to go.

[N4L]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

We’ve been getting gouged on the ground without Hubbard. Singletary killed us for multiple big runs last week.

Bills ran for 68 yards against you, with 44 of those from Allen. Did he get hurt that game? Do you think that last week could just be an aberration because Houston had not run on anyone. Perhaps it was just an overcorrection from the bengals being so focused on the houston pass game? 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

I will say, regardless of last weeks totals, Chase was very clearly hampered last week with a stiff back. He’s not on the injury report this week, so I assume he’s good to go.

Yeah the nice part of that soft tissue back injury is that it’s a very temporary thing.  Unbelievably painful at first.  But as the swelling goes down from the impact injury it basically goes away.  Timeline fits with complete recovery.  

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

Bills ran for 68 yards against you, with 44 of those from Allen. Did he get hurt that game? Do you think that last week could just be an aberration because Houston had not run on anyone. Perhaps it was just an overcorrection from the bengals being so focused on the houston pass game? 

I defer to @SmittyBacall re: CIN but BUF doesn’t commit to the run enough and not enough Josh Allen runs when he’s healthy.    We saw that on MNF.   Josh Allen TO’s aren’t getting enough criticism but that’s a big reason why the OC got the boot that was earned.   

[Broncofan]

OK the SUN slate has opened up early, and I have quite a number of plays, so let's get this going...

 

WEEK 11 SUNDAY 

ATS/ML

EARLY

LAC / GB O44 - GB has reverted back to throwing it deep, and Justin Herbert is back to his great self...but there's no LAC D.   Drives stalling and failed 4th downs are how this fails, but otherwise I think this is a 28-24 type game.

LATE

NYJ +7 @ BUF -  I don't think Jets will win...but they always find a way to keep it close vs. BUF since Robert Saleh took over.  I whiffed on NYJ ML on Monday, but as the spread is 7, it adheres to the rule of ATS with dogs of more than 6 pts. 

 

SNF

MIN +120 ML @ DEN -  DEN & MIN are both on a roll, but IMO MIN's is more sustainable - great OL, great receiving corps, mobile QB (TO prone plays and accuracy are his issues), great DC turning D into a top unit, while Sean Payton is scheming to limit Russell Wilson's flaws masterfully, great run game but inconsistent O & D that still can't stop the run well, or RB/TE's in the pass game.   TO's can swing this DEN's way (given Josh Dobbs is that volatile), but in a TO-neutral game, IMO DC Brian Flores can neutralize the DEN O better than our D can stymie the MIN pass O game.

 

MNF

PHI +130 ML @ KC - KC's D is great, Mahomes is great.   Kelce might be rejuvenated from his trip with the Swifties, but he's been easier to control of late.   Here's the thing - PHI's OL is such a great neutralizer to stifle other D's, and the PHI DL is exactly what gives Mahomes fits.   PHI's biggest weakness (secondary) gets mitigated by both the pressure the DL generates, but by KC's meh WR corps.    Truly 2 of the top 4 teams facing off - but I'll go with the plus money on what I always see is a pick 'em game at best.   

 

So that's 3U in Sunday plays. 

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Trey McBride O51.5 rec yds 2U FD (FRI AM - now 54.5 on DK), 80+ rec yds +250, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK (and B365/FD US bettors - go with the 6-7-8 ladder) - well, that was an awesome week 10, but books have finally caught on - just not enough IMO.   McBride is an alpha TE - but even with the low 50's #, it's too low vs. a HOU D that is bottom 6 vs. the TE.  In a game where ARI is likely playing catch up, the full alt lines up to 100+ are in order.   B365/US FD bettors, you know what to do with the alt lines for catches.

Calvin Ridley O48.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +300 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - TEN is giving up massive #"s to WR's again, and it's the X receivers who are eating, and eating down the field.   That's Ridley, and at these #'s, I know he's disappointed (but I did call when to take Ridley and when to take Kirk the last 4 weeks <Ridley vs PIT, Kirk for the other 3>, but this is the matchup he should get a ton of volume and chunk plays. 

Chigozam Okonkwo O27.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +320 1U DK - Those who have followed me know I targeted this play after TNF 2 weeks ago with Will Levis, and avoided him last week (vs a top 5 TE D in BAL).   JAX is a bottom 5 TE D, and if you give him the 6 targets he got last week, I think 50+ is very much in play.   

Dorian Thompson-Robinson O18.5 rush yds (now 19.5) 2U, 40+ rush yds +400 1U DK - yes, this is a pure gut play.   Yes, he stunk up the joint against the BAL D, and PIT D is formidable.  But I do know one area where DTR excels - it's his insane mobility and ability to make ppl miss.   At those #'s, it could only take 3-4 rushes to hit the alt line.    It's iffier because there's no reg season basis, but the preseason showed he is amazing on the ground, and the main prop & alt line is too juicy to pass up.

Luke Musgrave O28.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300, 70+ rec yds +750 0.5U DK - LAC struggles against the TE and the seam pattern in particular, where Musgrave has thrived.   It's a little scary because Musgrave "only" gets 4-5 targets a game,  but he's also hit 25+ yard plays in the last 2 weeks, LAC is another bottom 5 TE D, so it might only take 1 to hit the main line, and 3-4 to get the 1st alt line.  

Jahmyr Gibbs O21.5 rec yds 2U (FRI AM - now 24.5), 40+ rec yds +280 1U DK - CHI's got a top 3 run D, but they literally give up the MOST rec yds to RB's before last TNF - so this is a much easier target to attack.   You might only need 1 play to get the main line.  Still, as Gibbs has yet to crack 40+ (mid 30's last 2 weeks), I'm sticking to the 1-alt line here.

Jakobi Meyers O37.5 rec yds, 60+ rec yds +270 1U, 80+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - NGL this is iffier than in past weeks - because we don't really know how much Aidan O'Connell will target Meyers.   Last week doesn't tell us as much because the G-men were a cake walk on the other side.  Here, facing a MIA O that's likely to put 30+ pts, LV will have to open it up, and this number is just too low to pass up, along with 60/80 alt lines.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Saquon Barkley O17.5 Rec yds (now 18.5) 2U, 40+ Rec yds +340 & 60+ Rec yds +1100 0.5U DK - yes Tommy Devito is scary as QB.   But the WAS D gives up 50+ yards to RB’s in the last 5 games.    Gotta take the full alt line given Saquon’s usage and home run threat.   
 

LATE

Mike Evans O55.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +260, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - I don't even need to justify this, it's a weekly play until Evans stops putting up 80-100+ rec yds almost every week.   ESP since the SF ILB's do a great job of limiting the short stuff, I don't want the TAM RB's, and so it's easy to just take Evans, and pair him with...

Brandon Aiyuk O64.5 rec yds 2U (FRI AM: now 67.5), 90+ rec yds +225, 120+ rec yds +650 0.5U DK - this is one of the few plays that didn't hit last week, but that was a function of SF blowing out JAX, and being able to lean on the run.  This week, the TAM D is such a pass funnel D, and again very vulnerable to X receivers and chunk plays - and that's Aiyuk.    

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Christian McCaffrey O30.5 rec yds (FRI AM - now 31.5) 2U, 50+ rec yds 1U +250, 70+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK - same deal as with JAX, TAM is a tougher run D but leaky to the pass game, that's a CMC alt line prop for rec yds. 

Breece Hall O54.5 rush yds 2U DK (FRI AM: now 56.5), 80+ rush yds +250, 100+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK - I'm not going to repeat a 7U play (and go poof) like 2 weeks ago, but the BUF D is incredibly vulnerable to both the RB running game and pass game - and with Michael Carter cut, that can only mean more Hall (rookie Ibanikanda is a good story, but pass pro matters, so I think he gets ramped up, and the extra work goes mostly to Hall, with a little Cook).  

 

SNF

Nothing yet

 

MNF

De'Andre Swift O16.5 rec yds 2U, 40+ rec yds +380 1U - no Dallas Goedert, that means more work for the RB's and Devonta Smith.   Against the KC D, that keeps everything in front of them, it's super easy to take Swift at that number, and the tasty 40+ yard prop play as well.

So that's 40.5U in 12 player props for Sunday.   As always, I also was given 2 free 0.2U free bet credit plays on DK (but damn, they dropped it from 0.4U to 0.2U lol), so I put a *YOLO 9-leg +26000 player prop parley* with DTR o19.5 rush yds / J-Gibbs O24.5 rec yds / J-Myers O37.5 rec yds / T-Mcbride O53.5 rec yds / C-Okonkwo O27.5 rec yds / S-Barkley O17.5 rec yds / B-Hall O55.5 rush yds / CMC O31.5 rec yds / D-Swift O18.5 rec yds (so I can hedge Swift if I'm 8-8 lol). I also played *0.2U for Calvin Ridley most SUN receiving yds at +8000* for my 2nd free bet credit bet.

 

LONGSHOT TD 

EARLY

Kyle Phillips +700 FD (+600 DK) / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - Phillips still doesn't get as many snaps as you'd like to see to go full-stake, but for the matchup / role he's got, this is too good to pass up.

Chigozam Okonkwo +550 DK/FD / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U - Chig, on the other hand, gets pretty much a full-time role now, and his matchup with JAX's D means I have to take the full-stake play here.

Cedrick Wilson +600 / +9500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - My eyes popped when I saw this, as Wilson is the clear 3rd WR and gets over 80+ percent snaps now, and Tua has showed great chemistry with him.   I get that MIA might run the Raiders out of the stadium, but even in a blowout, Wilson is the guy who's going to get more PT as they rest Tyreek & Waddle.   So I have to take the full-stake play.

Donald Parham +450 / +5500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - Nothing new here, they offer +400 / +5000 2+ or better, I'll take the full stake play unless it's a great TE D...and GB isn't. 

Dontavion Wicks +650 / +8000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - On the flip side, Wicks gets about half the snaps, but he has an equal target share to the 2nd/3rd guys (Doubs & J-Reed).   Last week Reed paid off at +600, here it's Wicks who gets the big odds boost, so I'll go here vs. the porous LAC D.  With GB resuming the intermediate-deep throws again, it makes Wicks a nice play.

Michael Carter +1400 FD / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U- the books think Carter is the 3rd RB with Demercado out....they think Keontay Ingram is the backup.   He might be, but IMO Carter is by far the more talented back.   And as he's a great pass catcher, he offers huge potential for 3rd down or 2 minute drill / garbage time work.    If I'm right, next week he'll be +400 or less and the value is gone.   The uncertainty is why I can only go half-stake here. 

Lawrence Cager +1600 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - it figures Cager scores against DAL, and I hate chasing last week's results - but WAS is literally the worst TE D this year, and they've given up 5 TD's already.    Still, I wasn't looking to play this - until these odds were posted.  Have to take the half-stake play given how bad WAS TE D is.

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Tommy Tremble +850 TheScore (+700 FD) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U & Stephen Sullivan +1600 FD / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - with news Hayden Hurst is out, and the D's single weak area being TE's, worth the half-stake play to cover the 2 guys who soak up all the TE work.

NEW ADDED SAT PM Greg Dortch +900 TheScore (+750 DK) / +15000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U* - both Michael Wilson & Zach Pascal are out for ARI so Dortch is the WR3 and returns punts.  Also had chemistry with Kyler Murray last year.  Worth the half-stake play. 

LATE

Trey Palmer +800 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - I am shocked at this number, given that like Cedrick Wilson, Palmer gets a full-time set of snaps, and a clear 3rd in WR targets.  Against a vulnerable SF secondary, at that number it's worth the half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Colby Parkinson +700 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - the Rams have given up the 2nd most TD's with, so have to go back to the well with Parkinson here. 

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tyler Conklin +500 FD/Bodog / +8000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - nothing new here, one of the main RZ targets the Jets have

 

SNF

Johnny Mundt +1800 FD (+1500 DK) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - DEN is terrible against the TE, which sets up well for TJ Hockenson.  But he's grinding out multiple rib injuries, and a foot injury (wearing a plate).  He's one tough SOB.   But that also means that Mundt gets on the field about 25 percent of the time, and he's a better pass catcher than Josh Oliver.  So it's worth the half-stake play.  If Hock has to sit out plays, Mundt's the pass catcher.   And if it's 12 personnel with a pass option, I'm banking on Mundt to be the pass-catching TE. 

 

MNF

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Noah Gray +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - PHI is a bottom 3 TE D, and so it sets up well for Kelce, but at those odds and KC's love of 12 formation in the RZ and heavy usage of Gray an easy half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Julio Jones +850 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with Dallas Goedert out, it's not the TE's who saw more work, but the WR's and RB's.   So I have to add the biggest body at that price for a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Albert Okwuegbunam +1400 / +20000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - having said the above, the one guy who wasn't around last year is Albert O.  I don't even know if he'll be active - but if he plays, it won't be to block.  Given that, an easy half-unit play for Albert O.   If he's inactive, it voids.

 

I'll have some player props for SNF/MNF, but all books are pretty much out, so I think that's the TD slate for Week 11. 

I've already got 40.5U in 12 player props, 8.5U in 13 TD player props, and the 3U in ATS/ML, so that's 52U already committed to Sunday's slate (GULP).   More than enough for now - BOL!

 

 

WEEK 11 to TNF (PENDING ANDREWS BOOK DECISION)

ATS/ML: 20-22-2, -1.1U (WK 11 TNF:  0-1, -1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 85-78, +91.4U  (WK 11 TNF: 0-2, -8.5U <damn Mark Andrews 2/23 in first 3 mins then out sigh>)

LONGSHOT TD: 18-143 - -23.0U  (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750)

TOTAL - +67.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - -7.1U; 667U stake so far)

 

Edited November 19, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

5 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

it took me 5 minutes. 

That’s what I’ve been saying. I know many people it didn’t take long at all. So it’s crazy it’s taking me this long.

I had to go something similar with signing up to Caesars where I was putting the correct address but it kept saying it wasn’t right. Then randomly it let me through then said it’s taking longer to verify and they will send me an email when it’s finished. About 3 or so hours later I did get the email and I was verified.

With ESPN Bet it’s now well over 24hrs and Im still not verified with no email and they continue to tell me it’s processing due to increased high volume. Just ridiculous.

[stl4life07]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I'd be worried they'll say the 7-day window has expired.   Hopefully not.   But yeah, once that $200 is done, get out lol.

Yeah that would be worse case scenario lol.  But yeah that’s what I’m going to do. Get that $200 use it and then I’m done with ESPN Bet. It’s already frustrating me and I haven’t even officially used it yet lol.

[adamq]

8 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Yeah that would be worse case scenario lol.  But yeah that’s what I’m going to do. Get that $200 use it and then I’m done with ESPN Bet. It’s already frustrating me and I haven’t even officially used it yet lol.

I had an account with the barstool app already and it used the same info for ESPN bet... it worked for me, I just deposited $10 and put it on an anytime TD prop.. It gave me the $200 in free bets right away.. Hopefully they get your ish figured out soon

[stl4life07]

24 minutes ago, adamq said:

I had an account with the barstool app already and it used the same info for ESPN bet... it worked for me, I just deposited $10 and put it on an anytime TD prop.. It gave me the $200 in free bets right away.. Hopefully they get your ish figured out soon

Thats good to know. Yeah right now my situation is very bleak. One agent in the 24/7 chat straight up told me Im just going to have to wait with no time frame. 

[Broncofan]

16 minutes ago, stl4life07 said:

Thats good to know. Yeah right now my situation is very bleak. One agent in the 24/7 chat straight up told me Im just going to have to wait with no time frame. 

Well, at least it's just $10.    But yeah, that sucks.

FWIW, in theory I get this is part of a startup - but how CS handles these type of situations is a future reflection of how they'll handle unusual situations.  As much as I hate their odds, Bodog (Bovada in US) is excellent at dealing with problems, live chat/fairly responsive and able to talk to management with unusual problems.   DK/FD as well.   The smaller books are kinda wild how bad it is.  For ESPN to have this given their target audience size isn't a good sign TBH.

Edited November 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Well, at least it's just $10.    But yeah, that sucks.

Its not even $10. I cant access my account. They can pull up my account apparently. When I log into my account it says its still verifying my identity and that an email will be sent when the process is complete. So I cant do anything until then. 

[SmittyBacall]

14 hours ago, N4L said:

Bills ran for 68 yards against you, with 44 of those from Allen. Did he get hurt that game? Do you think that last week could just be an aberration because Houston had not run on anyone. Perhaps it was just an overcorrection from the bengals being so focused on the houston pass game? 

Even when completely healthy this year the Bengals run defense has looked to have dropped off overall from last year, which was a very stingy unit. We had Hubbard versus Buffalo. Felt his loss more last week against HOU. BAL had their way on the ground in the first match up. I expect that to continue, barring game script.