Broncofan Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) Well DK didn't waste any time, so there are 5 (!!!) player props I'm already getting an early start on, and 3 player props for the early game, so let's get it going.... WEEK 12 ATS/ML TURKEY DAY & BLACK FRIDAY DET -7 -125 vs GB - they got caught looking ahead this past week - they won't repeat it on what's traditionally been their get-up game every year. It's such a bad matchup - GB has lost their run game weapons (AJ Dillon isn't it), and they can't stop the run. Jordan Love has been better of late, but DET's run game, OL & pass rush are just problematic for the Pack. SF - 6.5 @ SEA - I know, I know - intra-divisional games are trickier. But Geno Smith is struggling mightily, the SF D with Chase Young has found itself again, and the SF O with LT Trent Williams and 3 big guns to help Brock Purdy, the O is clicking again. Taking this before it gets to -7. SUN EARLY (I'm going to wait on all the teams except CLE, as I think money will come in on ATL & JAX) TAM ML +120 @ IND - IND is still vulnerable to the pass, while TAM is also vulnerable, but they do a good job of stifling the run - which Gardner Minshew needs to succeed. TAM's OL is excellent at protection vs. all but the most elite DL's (see: SF as the exception), so I give the nod to the Bucs. EDIT WED PM: The injury news with no CB Dean really makes the pass D more vulnerable, so the edge I saw before is gone, so taking this off the board. NO ML pick 'em @ ATL - I hate backing the Saints because they're so poorly coached - but playing Arthur Smith helps negate this in a big way. Desmond Ridder back as QB really caps the O ceiling and adds TO-worthy plays to the menu, which is a bad matchup for NO's D. On the flip side, the ATL D losing Grady Jarrett has crippled their pass rush and interior D, so that helps Derek Carr a ton. Carr & Carmichael are how this backfires, but fading Arthur Smith, that O and less effective D is the call my evals make, so gotta trust them here. HOU ML +100 vs. JAX - this is a case where the Demeco Ryans D gives Trevor Lawrence fits (he is just absolutely stymied by complex zone D's, and crushes man D's), and of course, the HOU O can exploit JAX's pass D weaknesses. This is a massive swing game, as a HOU win gives them the AFCS tiebreaker, and ties them up - and yes, I'm a CJ Stroud truther. SUN LATE CLE +120 ML @ DEN - DEN's 4-game win streak is based on winning the TO battle - +4, +5 and +3 the last 3 games. If they can't be that tilted in TO's, the CLE run game and that elite D are just too much for the Broncos to overcome. I realize it's at DEN, but wrong team is favored IMO SNF/MNF Nothing yet So that's 2U on Turkey Day / Black Friday, and 4U on Sunday plays so far. WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY / BLACK FRIDAY PLAYER PROPS Jahmyr Gibbs O45.5 rush yds (46.5 on FD), 60+ rush yds +210 1U & 90+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK - DK has the X & alt lines - and the glitch I had on TNF happened again X alt lines 60+ is +160, but it's +210 with "Alt Line" option later below. GB a bottom 3 run D, we saw what happened last TNF with David Montgomery, but we've seen Gibbs take the 60/40 side of the work last week, and he's got the rush total that's 20+ yards lower. So this is the easy one to exploit. NGL, if they offer a higher number on DK, I'd think hard about the 3rd alt line at 0.5U, but 90+ is all I can get for now. NEW ADDED WED PM Jayden Reed O38.5 rec yds 2U / 53+ rec yds +200 1U / 71+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - he's off the injury report, and man is this a smash spot. DET's pass D gives up nearly half of its fantasy points vs. slot receivers, and the eye test confirms that's where you attack. Then you add in the RB & TE room are decimated and a gamescript where DET could very well be 2+ scores up for much of the 2H - it's the perfect storm. Going with the DK weird 2nd set of alt lines and their weird thresholds... Sam Howell O15.5 rush yds 2U , 25+ rush yds +210 1U, 35+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - teams that give Howell trouble with the pass rush also leave him rush yd opportunities, especially when WAS has to catch up. If I can get +200 or better on 25+ rush yds, I'll take it. EDIT TUES PM: DK continues some weird alt lines, but 25+ rush yds at +210 & 35+ rush yds at +500 really stands out. Logan Thomas O4.5 catches +110 2U DK (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 ladder) - with the DAL pass rush, Thomas' work as the safety valve with Antonio Gibson out, is very appealing. I do not want the 041.5 rec yds prop though, as Thomas could easily go 6-7 catches at 30-35 yards. Christian McCaffrey O74.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending, 93+ rush yds +210 & 114+ +500 0.5U - if I think SF wins by more than 7, and SEA's run D issues, then I have to take this line. I think the line is at least 10+ yards off, so that means 100+ rush yds if it's +250 or better represents value as well. EDIT TUES PM: The DK 2nd set of alt line weirdness continues, 100+ on X alt line is +220 & 120+ is +475, but 93+ is +210, and 114+ is +500, so I'm going with the weird 2nd set with more value (B365, I'd say to hit the 90+ & 110+ lines) George Kittle O51.5 rec yds 2U , 70+ rec yds +210 1U, 90+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK- SEA's pass D is still vulnerable; but CB Tariq Woolen is a legit shutdown CB and their TE still gives up chunk plays with LB/S play still having gaps. That means it's a Kittle day, especially as SEA's pass rush doesn't offer the same threat that requires Kittle to stay in and block. With Trent Williams back, Kittle's a great play whenever top CB's pose a shadow risk to Brandon Aiyuk. EDIT TUES PM: Well at least Kittle's 2nd set of alt lines is more normal - 70+ is +195 & 90+ is +425 on the 1st X alt line, but 2nd sticks to +210 & +500 on the same #'s lol. NEW TUES PM - Jaxon Smith-Njigba O36.5 rec yds 2U FD (38.5 on DK), 54+ rec yds +210 1U DK - the short-middle area & slot guy is where ST struggles the most - and JSN has now risen to an equal snap share. With the SF D being an extreme pass funnel and with gamescript calling for SEA catchup in the 2H, I have to take the main & 1st alt line on JSN. So that's likely going to be 22.5U in 7 Turkey Day plays. WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY / BLACK FRIDAY LONGSHOT TD Jordan Love +600 TheScore (+500 everywhere else) / +7500 2-TD Bodog / FD 0.4U / 0.1U - GB is going to be down to AJ Dillon and Patrick Taylor. Against a stout DET run D, that increases the chances of not just pass TD's, but for Love to try and score himself. With any mobile QB and a R B room that's so thin, I have to take thte shot here. Dontavyian Wicks +650 / +10000 2+ Bodog (+450 or less other books) 0.4U / 0.1U - as long as I keep getting odds this high, have to take the half-stake play against pass funnel D's, which DET certainly qualifies. EDIT TUES PM - he's out, bet voids...ugh. NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tucker Kraft +800 (+600 DK) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - he's literally the only TE left with Musgrave out & Degura doubtful. I'd still put his odds at more like +400, so DK +600 is worth the half-stake play, but Bodog's odds are too good to pass up (and the 2-TD is crazy). NEW ADDED TUES PM Malik Heath +1600 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U - this is a true YOLO play, but Wicks is out, and Reed has a new injury - he'd become the default #3 WR, with a team that has only 1 healthy TE. Reed's unclear status and Heath being a rookie just getting onto the field (first catch last week) is why this is a half-stake play. Brock Wright +1300 FD (+1200 Bodog) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with the injuries GB has had to their safety and LB corps, TE is more vulnerable. Wright scored 2 weeks ago, and he's a fixture in their 12 formation, so have to take a sprinkle at that number. Sam Howell +700 TheScore (+550 Bodog) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - we've already seen Howell score 3x with his legs, so I'm absolutely shocked at this number TBH. I realize DAL D is that good, but he's IMO also the most likely player to be running it in a trail scenario. I'll put it at a half-stake, but I'm tempted to double it to a full stake - but will wait to see what other books offer first, as neither DK or FD are offering on this game yet. NEW ADDED TUES PM Dynami Brown +1200 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - it's typical Brown scored vs. SEA (his odds weren't great at +600), so I have to take the crazy long odds, realizing DAL pass rush is the reason (but the secondary is super vulnerable to big shots). NEW ADDED TUES AM Colby Parkinson +1000 Bodog/TheScore (+850 DK / ??FD) / 12500 2+ TD Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - he didn't play as much last week because he's been battling a sore biceps, but with S Talanoa Hufanga out, it creates the RZ potential for a TE TD, and I'll take the guy who's 2.5x Noah Fant's. So that's 3.5U in TD plays so far. Enough for now with 28U for Turkey Day....BOL! WEEK 12 to TNF ATS/ML: 21-25-2, -2.8U PLAYER PROPS: 94-86, +105.8U LONGSHOT TD: 19-161 - -28.3U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850) TOTAL - +74.7U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; 739U stake so far) Edited November 24, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 So Bet365 just came to the state that I live in Louisiana and Im taking advantage of their deposit $10 and place a first wage of $1+ and get $365 bonus bets. Have anyone taken advantage of this offer and how did it turn out? From what I was told by them is that I placed my first wager and once its settle I will get $365 bonus bets and get to use it however I want too until its all used up. For example, if I want to us $5 of it I could. If I want to us $50 of it I could. If I want to us $365 on a bet I could. I just want to know your experience bc I placed an NBA bet for tonight and once its settled I will see how things go after that. Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) OK the alt lines are out, and DK is doing this weird business where they have a standard set of alt lines (X alt lines) and a 2nd set of Alt Lines - the 2nd set being much better value, but also with sometimes weird numbers (look at CMC & JSN lines). I'd like to add 1 more player prop from the GB - DET game, but no GB player props are out - so there's one SEA prop I'm playing: NEW TUES PM - Jaxon Smith-Njigba O36.5 rec yds 2U FD (38.5 on DK), 54+ rec yds +210 1U DK - the short-middle area & slot guy is where ST struggles the most - and JSN has now risen to an equal snap share. With the SF D being an extreme pass funnel and with gamescript calling for SEA catchup in the 2H, I have to take the main & 1st alt line on JSN. I'll add the GB line once it's up unless the main line is mega-steamed from last week (I don't think it will). As for TD's, I have 2 more to add for now: NEW ADDED TUES PM Dynami Brown +1200 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - it's typical Brown scored vs. SEA (his odds weren't great at +600), so I have to take the crazy long odds, realizing DAL pass rush is the reason (but the secondary is super vulnerable to big shots). NEW ADDED TUES AM Colby Parkinson +1000 Bodog/TheScore (+850 DK / ??FD) / 12500 2+ TD Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - he didn't play as much last week because he's been battling a sore biceps, but with S Talanoa Hufanga out, it creates the RZ potential for a TE TD, and I'll take the guy who's 2.5x Noah Fant's. So that's 3U in TD plays so far. I'm pretty much done other than if the injury report shows a leverage spot, and the GB player prop I'm waiting on. Card's updated in full above, BOL! Edited November 21, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 (edited) OK so there's new info - Tucker Kraft +800 / +10000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog has tremendous value - the other 2 TE's are sudden DNP's. He's +600 on DK as well, which is still worth it, but obv that's crazy good value. Wicks is out as well, so his TD prop will void. Reed was the guy I was waiting on prop-wise. Wow. Edited November 21, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 21, 2023 Share Posted November 21, 2023 Well that went quickly - Kraft is now in the +300 range or less. Strangely enough, if Wicks is out, then Malik Heath is the 4th WR - and 3rd WR if Reed can't go, either. His odds have dropped to +800 - but Malik Heath +1600 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U on Bodog. Given Reed could still play, that's not worth more than 0.4U / 0.1U but I'm willing to speculate at those #'s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) The TAM injury report is pretty significant with Jamel Dean gone, starting CB2 Carlton Davis and SS Ryan Neal hurting and their 2 best ILB's in Devin White & Lavonte David hurting, and that changes an already weak secondary and pass D. So taking TAM ML off the board. One Black Friday player prop to lock in & one TD play: Breece Hall O24.5 rec yds 2U DK, 39+ rec yds +200 1U, 55+ rec yds +500 (new 2nd alt line with diff thresholds) DK 0.5U - made the mistake last week of taking Hall rush yds, but in a game where they're likely trailing, his pass work is more reliable. Won't make that mistake this time. Only play I can back with such a meh QB situation (no, Tim Boyle isn't much better than Zach Wilson, but they have to try). DK has continued their 2 sets of alt lines, X+ & Alt lines....and the 2nd has more value again (40+ @ +190 & 60+ @ +550 on X+, while 39+ @ +200 and 55+ @ +500, I'll take the latter). Jeremy Ruckert +2000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - replaced CJ Uzomah, and took over 40+ percent of snap share. Tyler Conklin is still the starter, but Ruckert will get his looks, and if it's a MIA blowout, then those snaps go up. Edited November 22, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 Lions-Cowboys-49ers ML seems so chalky and public 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) On 11/20/2023 at 5:29 PM, Broncofan said: BTW it's not without risk, but there's another NBA leverage opp for the value offered - HOU is going in as a 8-pt dog to GS (and I gotta admit I'm tempted to take the +280 ML), but the Warriors will again be without Draymond Green. No matter how you feel about him, the GS D doesn't work without him. In particular - GS gives up 22 PPG to SG's, and 25 PPG to C's - and that lines up with Jalen Green O19.5 2U / 25+ +320 / 30+ +1000 0.5U FD & Alpero Senguin O19.5 2U / 25+ +320 / 30+ +1000 0.5U FD. Senguin in particular has a ton of usage in the PNR with both Green and VanVleet, so it's too good to pass up. Yes, it's scary to go 7U, but I figure at least 1, if not both are good for 20+, and it only needs 1 guy to get 25+ to pay off, and either gets 30+, it's a great day. BOL! FD & B365 have some nice juicy alt lines on the 2 leading Raptor scorers - Pascal Siakam O21.5 pts 2U & 30+ +500 0.5U & Scottie Barnes O18.5 pts & 25+ +320 1U & 30+ +900 1U 0.5U FD (B365 a hair better). The Pacers are on a historic pace of D futility, and are on the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning 157-152 over ATL (lol you read that right). Raps are on a back-to-back as well, but as they got their doors blown off, they rested their starters for the 4Q (both guys played 30 mins last night, and they played <25 mins on Sun in a 29-pt blowout W vs. DET). It's a 6U play, hopefully I don't give back the 6.7U I won with Sengun/Green @ GS Edited November 22, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 22, 2023 Share Posted November 22, 2023 (edited) OK the GB injury report is out, and slot WR Jayden Reed is off completely - and that means the's the final Turkey Day play. Why? Well not only is his play ascending - but the DET D gives up almost half of their fantasy points to slot WR's. This matches what I've seen when DET plays. Then you add in the decimated GB RB room, their TE room down 2 guys and only 1 guy left who plays regularly, and a game script where DET is likely ahead...well you've got the perfect storm. The other part - his injury (chest contusion) is one that doesn't usually have a high risk of recurrence, nor limiting his level of play. So I'm going with Jayden Reed O38.5 rec yds 2U / 53+ rec yds +200 1U / 71+ rec yds 0.5U +500 DK with the crazy 2nd alt lines and weird targets. That pretty much completes my Turkey Day card - BOL! Edited November 22, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted November 23, 2023 Share Posted November 23, 2023 Didn’t get to watch. Was Reed a bad beat or justified? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) Eli Mitchell to score +1000 live on DK. 49ers will just pound the ball in the 2nd half, hopefully giving CMC some rest by the 4th Edited November 24, 2023 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) On 11/21/2023 at 2:24 AM, Broncofan said: Well DK didn't waste any time, so there are 5 (!!!) player props I'm already getting an early start on, and 3 player props for the early game, so let's get it going.... WEEK 12 ATS/ML TURKEY DAY & BLACK FRIDAY DET -7 -125 vs GB - they got caught looking ahead this past week - they won't repeat it on what's traditionally been their get-up game every year. It's such a bad matchup - GB has lost their run game weapons (AJ Dillon isn't it), and they can't stop the run. Jordan Love has been better of late, but DET's run game, OL & pass rush are just problematic for the Pack. SF - 6.5 @ SEA - I know, I know - intra-divisional games are trickier. But Geno Smith is struggling mightily, the SF D with Chase Young has found itself again, and the SF O with LT Trent Williams and 3 big guns to help Brock Purdy, the O is clicking again. Taking this before it gets to -7. SUN EARLY (I'm going to wait on all the teams except CLE, as I think money will come in on ATL & JAX) TAM ML +120 @ IND - IND is still vulnerable to the pass, while TAM is also vulnerable, but they do a good job of stifling the run - which Gardner Minshew needs to succeed. TAM's OL is excellent at protection vs. all but the most elite DL's (see: SF as the exception), so I give the nod to the Bucs. EDIT WED PM: The injury news with no CB Dean really makes the pass D more vulnerable, so the edge I saw before is gone, so taking this off the board. NO ML pick 'em @ ATL - I hate backing the Saints because they're so poorly coached - but playing Arthur Smith helps negate this in a big way. Desmond Ridder back as QB really caps the O ceiling and adds TO-worthy plays to the menu, which is a bad matchup for NO's D. On the flip side, the ATL D losing Grady Jarrett has crippled their pass rush and interior D, so that helps Derek Carr a ton. Carr & Carmichael are how this backfires, but fading Arthur Smith, that O and less effective D is the call my evals make, so gotta trust them here. HOU ML +100 vs. JAX - this is a case where the Demeco Ryans D gives Trevor Lawrence fits (he is just absolutely stymied by complex zone D's, and crushes man D's), and of course, the HOU O can exploit JAX's pass D weaknesses. This is a massive swing game, as a HOU win gives them the AFCS tiebreaker, and ties them up - and yes, I'm a CJ Stroud truther. SUN LATE CLE +120 ML @ DEN - DEN's 4-game win streak is based on winning the TO battle - +4, +5 and +3 the last 3 games. If they can't be that tilted in TO's, the CLE run game and that elite D are just too much for the Broncos to overcome. I realize it's at DEN, but wrong team is favored IMO SNF/MNF Nothing yet So that's 2U on Turkey Day / Black Friday, and 4U on Sunday plays so far. WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY / BLACK FRIDAY PLAYER PROPS Jahmyr Gibbs O45.5 rush yds (46.5 on FD), 60+ rush yds +210 1U & 90+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK - DK has the X & alt lines - and the glitch I had on TNF happened again X alt lines 60+ is +160, but it's +210 with "Alt Line" option later below. GB a bottom 3 run D, we saw what happened last TNF with David Montgomery, but we've seen Gibbs take the 60/40 side of the work last week, and he's got the rush total that's 20+ yards lower. So this is the easy one to exploit. NGL, if they offer a higher number on DK, I'd think hard about the 3rd alt line at 0.5U, but 90+ is all I can get for now. Sam Howell O15.5 rush yds 2U , 25+ rush yds +210 1U, 35+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - teams that give Howell trouble with the pass rush also leave him rush yd opportunities, especially when WAS has to catch up. If I can get +200 or better on 25+ rush yds, I'll take it. EDIT TUES PM: DK continues some weird alt lines, but 25+ rush yds at +210 & 35+ rush yds at +500 really stands out. Logan Thomas O4.5 catches +110 2U DK (B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 ladder) - with the DAL pass rush, Thomas' work as the safety valve with Antonio Gibson out, is very appealing. I do not want the 041.5 rec yds prop though, as Thomas could easily go 6-7 catches at 30-35 yards. Christian McCaffrey O74.5 rush yds 2U DK, alt lines pending, 93+ rush yds +210 & 114+ +500 0.5U - if I think SF wins by more than 7, and SEA's run D issues, then I have to take this line. I think the line is at least 10+ yards off, so that means 100+ rush yds if it's +250 or better represents value as well. EDIT TUES PM: The DK 2nd set of alt line weirdness continues, 100+ on X alt line is +220 & 120+ is +475, but 93+ is +210, and 114+ is +500, so I'm going with the weird 2nd set with more value (B365, I'd say to hit the 90+ & 110+ lines) George Kittle O51.5 rec yds 2U , 70+ rec yds +210 1U, 90+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK- SEA's pass D is still vulnerable; but CB Tariq Woolen is a legit shutdown CB and their TE still gives up chunk plays with LB/S play still having gaps. That means it's a Kittle day, especially as SEA's pass rush doesn't offer the same threat that requires Kittle to stay in and block. With Trent Williams back, Kittle's a great play whenever top CB's pose a shadow risk to Brandon Aiyuk. EDIT TUES PM: Well at least Kittle's 2nd set of alt lines is more normal - 70+ is +195 & 90+ is +425 on the 1st X alt line, but 2nd sticks to +210 & +500 on the same #'s lol. NEW TUES PM - Jaxon Smith-Njigba O36.5 rec yds 2U FD (38.5 on DK), 54+ rec yds +210 1U DK - the short-middle area & slot guy is where ST struggles the most - and JSN has now risen to an equal snap share. With the SF D being an extreme pass funnel and with gamescript calling for SEA catchup in the 2H, I have to take the main & 1st alt line on JSN. So that's likely going to be 19U in 6 Turkey Day plays, and I'm likely taking 1 more GB player, as Packer player props aren't yet, depending on the # it will be 1 or 2 alt lines. WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY / BLACK FRIDAY LONGSHOT TD Jordan Love +600 TheScore (+500 everywhere else) / +7500 2-TD Bodog / FD 0.4U / 0.1U - GB is going to be down to AJ Dillon and Patrick Taylor. Against a stout DET run D, that increases the chances of not just pass TD's, but for Love to try and score himself. With any mobile QB and a R B room that's so thin, I have to take thte shot here. Dontavyian Wicks +650 / +10000 2+ Bodog (+450 or less other books) 0.4U / 0.1U - as long as I keep getting odds this high, have to take the half-stake play against pass funnel D's, which DET certainly qualifies. EDIT TUES PM - he's out, bet voids...ugh. NEW ADDED TUES PM - Tucker Kraft +800 (+600 DK) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - he's literally the only TE left with Musgrave out & Degura doubtful. I'd still put his odds at more like +400, so DK +600 is worth the half-stake play, but Bodog's odds are too good to pass up (and the 2-TD is crazy). NEW ADDED TUES PM Malik Heath +1600 / +12500 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U - this is a true YOLO play, but Wicks is out, and Reed has a new injury - he'd become the default #3 WR, with a team that has only 1 healthy TE. Reed's unclear status and Heath being a rookie just getting onto the field (first catch last week) is why this is a half-stake play. Brock Wright +1300 FD (+1200 Bodog) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - with the injuries GB has had to their safety and LB corps, TE is more vulnerable. Wright scored 2 weeks ago, and he's a fixture in their 12 formation, so have to take a sprinkle at that number. Sam Howell +700 TheScore (+550 Bodog) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - we've already seen Howell score 3x with his legs, so I'm absolutely shocked at this number TBH. I realize DAL D is that good, but he's IMO also the most likely player to be running it in a trail scenario. I'll put it at a half-stake, but I'm tempted to double it to a full stake - but will wait to see what other books offer first, as neither DK or FD are offering on this game yet. NEW ADDED TUES PM Dynami Brown +1200 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - it's typical Brown scored vs. SEA (his odds weren't great at +600), so I have to take the crazy long odds, realizing DAL pass rush is the reason (but the secondary is super vulnerable to big shots). NEW ADDED TUES AM Colby Parkinson +1000 Bodog/TheScore (+850 DK / ??FD) / 12500 2+ TD Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - he didn't play as much last week because he's been battling a sore biceps, but with S Talanoa Hufanga out, it creates the RZ potential for a TE TD, and I'll take the guy who's 2.5x Noah Fant's. Most books don't have WAS-DAL or SF-SEA or Black Friday out yet, so that's 3.5U in TD plays so far. I've definitely got a DAL & WAS target, SEA-SF might be much harder given how concentrated the TD scorer candidates are there. Enough for now, I'm sure to add as the Turkey Day / Black Friday cards fill out for the books. WEEK 12 to TNF ATS/ML: 21-25-2, -2.8U PLAYER PROPS: 94-86, +105.8U LONGSHOT TD: 19-161 - -28.3U (Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850) TOTAL - +74.7U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; 739U stake so far) WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY ATS/ML - 1-1, Even PLAYER PROPS - 3-4, -4.5U - Jayden Reed drop hurt as it was a 7.5U swing from whiff to main & 1st alt line. Jahmyr Gibbs got gamescripted away from rush alt lines. WAS plays & Kittle were just bad calls. CMC hitting all the lines late & JSN hitting main late (what a catch) sure helped end the night on a positive note. LONGSHOT TD - 2-5, +4.3U - Both Howell +700 & Kraft +800 were godsends today. So that’s a -0.2U day - lol oh well. Could have been great with Jayden Reed & Jahmyr Gibbs hitting alt lines but could have been worse. On to Black Friday! WEEK 12 to TNF ATS/ML: 22-26-2, -2.8U (WK 12 TNF - 1-1, even) PLAYER PROPS: 95-87, +101.3U (WK 12 TNF: 3-4, -4.5U) LONGSHOT TD: 21-164 - -24.0U (WK 12 TNF: 2-5, +4.3U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700) TOTAL - +74.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12 TNF - -0.2U; 755U stake so far) Edited November 24, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) 6 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Didn’t get to watch. Was Reed a bad beat or justified? Brutal beat - he had a 20+ yard catch he dropped on GB's 2nd last line...would have been both the main & alt line. Still, that's football. The real issue though is that DET got away from their run game in the 1H, turned it over 3x (including the fumble 6), and that flipped the script for both GB catchup & DET run game. Still, that's the risk (but yes, Reed was still a bad beat lol). On the flip side, JSN made an OBJ-like ridiculous catch that got him his main line - so Reed's drop cost +7.5U, while JSN gave us back 4U if he doesn't make the grab. Oh well. Edited November 24, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 On 11/22/2023 at 2:41 PM, Broncofan said: FD & B365 have some nice juicy alt lines on the 2 leading Raptor scorers - Pascal Siakam O21.5 pts 2U & 30+ +500 0.5U & Scottie Barnes O18.5 pts & 25+ +320 1U & 30+ +900 1U 0.5U FD (B365 a hair better). The Pacers are on a historic pace of D futility, and are on the 2nd of a back-to-back after winning 157-152 over ATL (lol you read that right). Raps are on a back-to-back as well, but as they got their doors blown off, they rested their starters for the 4Q (both guys played 30 mins last night, and they played <25 mins on Sun in a 29-pt blowout W vs. DET). It's a 6U play, hopefully I don't give back the 6.7U I won with Sengun/Green @ GS Forgot to point out the great fortune - SIakam absolutely smashed with 36, but Barnes was having a terrible shooting night, and seemed destined to lose all 3.5U at 16 pts with 1 minute to go, then in the last 40 secs, got a 3-pt play (dunk plus 1), and then made 1/2 FT's to backdoor a 20+ main line. So a +5U day (instead of a +1U day with Siakam's 2.5U lines all hitting). We'll take that one! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) WEEK 12 SUNDAY SLATE ATS/ML SUN EARLY (I'm going to wait on all the teams except CLE, as I think money will come in on ATL & JAX) TAM ML +120 @ IND - IND is still vulnerable to the pass, while TAM is also vulnerable, but they do a good job of stifling the run - which Gardner Minshew needs to succeed. TAM's OL is excellent at protection vs. all but the most elite DL's (see: SF as the exception), so I give the nod to the Bucs. EDIT WED PM: The injury news with no CB Dean really makes the pass D more vulnerable, so the edge I saw before is gone, so taking this off the board. NO ML pick 'em @ ATL - I hate backing the Saints because they're so poorly coached - but playing Arthur Smith helps negate this in a big way. Desmond Ridder back as QB really caps the O ceiling and adds TO-worthy plays to the menu, which is a bad matchup for NO's D. On the flip side, the ATL D losing Grady Jarrett has crippled their pass rush and interior D, so that helps Derek Carr a ton. Carr & Carmichael are how this backfires, but fading Arthur Smith, that O and less effective D is the call my evals make, so gotta trust them here. HOU ML +100 vs. JAX - this is a case where the Demeco Ryans D gives Trevor Lawrence fits (he is just absolutely stymied by complex zone D's, and crushes man D's), and of course, the HOU O can exploit JAX's pass D weaknesses. This is a massive swing game, as a HOU win gives them the AFCS tiebreaker, and ties them up - and yes, I'm a CJ Stroud truther. NEW ADDED FRI PM - PIT ML -120 @ CIN - CIN loses not just Joe Burrow, but Tee Higgins and Cameron Taylor-Britt. PIT still is without Minkah Fitzpatrick, but since Cam Heyward has returned, it's made their run D effective again. This is just a bridge too far for DC Lou Amarumo & QB Jake Browning. SUN LATE CLE +120 ML @ DEN - DEN's 4-game win streak is based on winning the TO battle - +4, +5 and +3 the last 3 games. If they can't be that tilted in TO's, the CLE run game and that elite D are just too much for the Broncos to overcome. I realize it's at DEN, but wrong team is favored IMO SNF/MNF Nothing yet So that's 4U on Sunday plays so far. PLAYER PROPS EARLY Tank Dell O62.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM: now 63.5), 90+ rec yds +270 1U & 120+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK vs. JAX - JAX's pass D is decent, but the speed / shifty guys give them the most trouble, so that's got to be Dell. His chemistry with CJ Stroud is unreal, against a D that is super-pass funnel (their run D is so legit), I'll back the alpha in the low 60's. Rashid Shaheed O37.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - same), 60+ rec yds +270 1U & 80+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK @ ATL - you know the deal here, with Michael Thomas out, I have to back Shaheed - and hope that OC Pete Carmichael & QB Derek Carr realize what they have with #22. Chris Olave likely gets AJ Terrell shadow coverage, which means it's a smash spot for Shaheed. Saquon Barkley O20.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - same), 40+ rec yds +300 1U & 60+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. NE - As long as Tommy Devito is the QB, he'll check down to Barkley. 5/40 is my median projection, so going 2-alt lines for sure here. Mike Evans O61.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - now 66.5), 90+ rec yds +250 1U & 110+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ IND - you know the deal here, Evans didn't hit last week, but IND's pass D is susceptible to the boundary guys (while their all-world slot CB makes the slot a must-avoid, so no Godwin). Josh Downs O47.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - now 49.5), 70+ rec yds +240 1U & 100+ rec yds +850 0.5U DK vs. TAM - TAM is really vulnerable to the slot WR, and speed - and that's Downs. Going to take some juicy lines here, as the ceiling is nuts. Jonathan Taylor O3.5 recs +130 2U (SAT PM - now -105) DK vs. TAM - TAM is a pass funnel D, and they've been allowing 5 catches a game to the RB - but that's been with their 2 best ILB's playing most weeks. Devin White & Lavonte David have missed practice the last 2 days, so I'm willing to bank on at least 1, if not both out, which makes the pass D to RB's even more vulnerable. There isn't enough volume to take alt lines though IMO. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Diontae Johnson O54.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - now 53.5), 80+ rec yds +250 1U DK - Diontae gets 30+ percent of the targets, and CIN's run D solidifies with Sam Hubbard back. That means more air show, and with CB Cameron Taylor-Britt out, the CB secondary is even more vulnerable. Have to take an alt line stab here given all the above, even if relying on Kenny Pickett is a pretty scary situation. LATE Trey McBride O50.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - now 55.5), 70+ rec yds +210 1U & 90+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. LAR - those who took Trey last week got absolutely burned when Kyler Murray missed him 2x wide open, but LAR's D offers a similar matchup opportunity. I was going to pair him with Kyren Williams rush props, but he hit the low 60's, which coming off injury, is too rich for my blood. D'Andre Swift O15.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - now 16.5), 40+ rec yds +450 1U DK vs. BUF - no mystery here, BUF is the 2nd worst D to RB yardage, so that's an auto-slam with D'Andre. Hopefully OC Brian Johnson doesn't wait 3Q before going here, IMO this has 40-50 yard ceilings, so I'll be going with 2 alt lines for sure. EDIT SAT AM - only offering 25+ & 40+ rec yds, bah. Jerome Ford O48.5 rush yds 2U (SAT PM - now 52.5), 80+ rush yds +300 1U & 100+ rush yds +750 0.5U DK @ DEN - as MIN showed, the DEN run D is still super vulnerable. MIN got away from it late, and BUF got away from it altogether. CLE is one team that won't go away from this. He's got 100+ yard ceiling here, so going with 2 alt lines (and tempted to go higher on the 2nd than usual). David Njoku O38.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - now 40.5), 60+ rec yds +250 1U & 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ DEN - this is a crazy line when you realize how vulnerable to TE's that DEN remains, and how much rookie QB DTR checks down to the TE. No trouble going 2 alt lines here. SNF/MNF NEW ADDED SAT PM - Odell Beckham O40.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +240 1U & 80+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK. His target share goes way up when Andrews doesn't play, and it's obvious he and Lamar have a connection. In theory he's a GTD, but the odds of playing with this type of injury are usually well over 85 percent, and being unaffected as long as you don't land on it / get piledriven. Against the LAC pass D, this seems like a smash spot for OBJ. Ty Chandler O9.5 rec yds 2U (SAT PM - same), 25+ rec yds +270 1U & 40+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK vs. CHI - you know the score here, CHI is the worst at giving up rec yds, and Chandler is the 2-min & 3rd down back, and he split work. HC KOC also did mention Mattison needs better ball security after a critical fumble last week, so this seems like a smash spot at such a low #. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Roschon Johnson O6.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending - D'onta Foreman is doubtful, and while Travis Homer just joined the team, that puts Roschon Johnson as the clear #2 back with Khalil Herbert. Because OC Luke Getsy isn't great, I'm iffy on the alt line, but this low of a number with the best pass catching back between the top 2 (Homer, don't screw this up), it's worth taking now. I'd like to see the injury reports before committing to any more plays, that's certainly enough for now as that's 36U planned for 11 players on SUN daytime slate already. It took a while to get my free 0.2U plays offered x2, but I have them - so I"m going with the 8-leg YOLO +140000 parley with Dell O63.5 rec yds / Downs O49.5 rec yds / Shaheed O37.5 rec yds / Saquon O20.5 rec yds / Swift O16.5 rec yds / Njoku O40.5 rec yds / Ford O52.5 rush yds / OBJ O40.5 rec yds (allowing me the SNF hedgeout if it's still live). I will also take my 2nd 0.2U free bet credit play with Isaiah Ford +3500 for top Sunday rusher LONGSHOT TD EARLY Juwan Johnson +450 / +5000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK @ATL - esp with Michael Thomas out, more RZ targets to distribute. Worth the full stake play Jonathan Mingo +600 / +9500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD @ TEN - he's clearly CAR's #2 WR now, and against TEN's secondary, that has value. It's tough to back bad QB play, but Bryce Young in shotgun has been better. Against a leaky pass D, I have to take the shot with this much volume both outside with intermediate/deep shots and inside the RZ. Kyle Phillips +900 FD / +7000 Bodog (ugh) 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CAR- I get that TEN's pass O is awful, and CAR's pass D is decent, but Phillips is the clear slot guy, and +900 for anyone who gets regular work is just kinda crazy. But given how badly TEN's pass game is struggling, can't back more than a half-stake play Lawrence Cager +1800 TheScore / +15000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NE - I keep putting Cager on the ignore list, and then these odds keep popping up lol. Cager plays just a little less than Daniel Bellinger, so these odds are just too good to pass up. NEW ADDED FRI AM D’Ernest Johnson +800 / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ HOU - some books think Tank Bigsby is the backup but it’s actually D-Johnson. He gets on the field regularly and had 2 touches inside the 10 last week. Against HOU this is definitely worth the half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI AM Tanner Hudson +800 FD / +10000 2+ Bodog (+8000 DK) 0.4U / 0.1U vs PIT - he’s become the lead pass catching TE but the books still think he’s 2nd - 3rd. PIT S Minkah Fitzpatrick still out which makes this viable but Joe Burrow out for season only makes this a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tommy Tremble +600 / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD @ TEN - with Hayden Hurst out, he becomes the main target. TEN's TE D has always been good, but with no Kevin Byard, I'm willing to lay a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Isaiah Hodgins +1100 / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. NE - with Darius Slayton out, it's not clear who will take his snaps / targets, between Hodgins & Sterling Shepard (Hyatt and Wandale are the other 2 in 11 formation). The thing is, Hodgins is the better RZ target, and someone the team has leaned on when injuries hit. He's literally +600 or lower everywhere else, so this is great value IMO. LATE Noah Gray +900 FD / +9000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - KC's usage of 11 personnel in the RZ reflected their desire to get the max # of PHI DB's out there - but the performance of said WR's has me leaning to seeing more Gray like in prior games. At that #, have to take the half-stake play. Harrison Bryant +1200 TheScore / +13000 DK 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ DEN - sticking with the theme of DEN's leaky TE D, CLE isn't afraid to go 12 formation near the EZ, and given DTR's preference for TE's, the other pass-catching TE at those odds seems worth the half-stake play. NEW ADDED SAT AM Greg Dortch +550 / +7000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1u vs. LAR - with Michael Wilson out and Hollywood Brown iffy, have to take the shot, as he's going to be a top 2 WR target with Rondale Moore at worst, and may be top. SNF/MNF Charlie Kolar +1100 FD / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LAC - who? He's the 2nd TE for BAL now that Isaiah Likely is out, and he actually gets almost as many snaps, and about 2/3 the targets that Likely gets this year. His CLV is insane - Bodog is +375 & TheScore is +850. Given BAL's willingness to 12 formation near the EZ, it's worth the play at that number (but only half-stake for now), esp against LAC's leaky TE D. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Brandon Powell +500 / +7000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD - he's clearly in their 11 formation in the RZ, and gets intermediate shots as well. Happy to take the half-stake play with the usage he's had since JJ has been out. So that's 7U in TD plays with 11 players for Sunday daytime. I'm definitely looking at LAC-BAL SNF & LAR-ARI late game options, but the books aren't all out there. That's enough for now with 47U committed to Sunday day slate so far....BOL! WEEK 12 to BLACK FRIDAY ATS/ML: 22-26-2, -2.8U (WK 12 TNF - 1-1, even) PLAYER PROPS: 96-88, +101.4U (WK 12 Black Friday: 4-5, -4.4U) LONGSHOT TD: 21-164 - -25.5U (WK 12 TNF: 2-8, +2.8U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700) TOTAL - +73.1U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12 Black Friday - -1.6U; 763U stake so far) Edited November 25, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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