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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted

Ok the longshot I’ve been waiting on finally came in - Lucas Krull +2500 / +19000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U taken.   

Also adding Jameson Williams +500 / +6000 FD 0.8U / 0.2U  tonight.   
 

Sucks we lost Pittman due to injury he was going to smash that game.   But let’s finish Sat strong! 

 

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Dash

Dash

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

FWIW the above plays can be decent - and CLE still loses.   Njoku is an excellent standalone call FWIW because CHI’s D really focuses on keeping the ball in front of them and their best cover guys are on the WR’s.   The Bears give up the 5th highest TD yardage.  
 

And Flacco / Cooper could get there on volume alone if they are trailing.   It’s definitely the most obvious path to functioning O in a W or garbage time in a L.   We’re about to find out how good Jaylon Johnson is - Cooper is a guy who absolutely kills it when he’s not facing very good to elite CB (and he’s healthy, big issue in past with Coop) - but the best CB traditionally shut him down.   It’s why I’ve had Cooper props several weeks (including last one).   I just like other plays better this week because Johnson has been playing great this year.   This is a week where we find out just how good to great he is.    
 

PS - surely there are better alt lines if you are going to take them?  +155 to risk 15 yards isn’t great.   Is there a +200 or better line for sub 75?  The thing about alt lines is if you’re right on main alt lines are usually in play.  But you want the payoff to be so much more the added yardage risk is worth it.   I’d rather see +200 or more at 75 or less  to go there.  My 2 cents .

Yeah I was thinking moreso of parlaying the plus money yardage props. It's on DK and there's props in the +200 range are for 10 more yards. 

I agree that they can hit these props and still lose. And that these plays could not hit at all and the Bears defense does keep rolling with the issues with the CLE pass game going back to the mean as I pointed out earlier in my other post.

This is more of just a stab at a passing game against a pass funnel defense. Not going to put too much money on it.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

What an incredibly fortunate day.

Chase hits his line by 0.5 yards and Hock hits late. The last two offensive plays for Detroit were a 10+ unit swing - first Gibbs with a 4 yard rush to hit the 100 milestone bang on, then on the next play Laporta to push his over 46.5.

Let's take a moment and thank both Mike Tomlin & Sean Payton - their actions literally gave bettors who took the Sat card 10.5U (I was safe with Hock O45.5 but I realize a lot of ppl had 46.5 or even 47.5 at closing)...

 

WEEK 15 SAT RECAP

ATS/ML - 1-0, +1U - god bless coaches using their TO.   After 2 missed 4th and goal at the 1 and a missed FG and a pit punt from the 39 yd line indoors down 11 - HC Tomlin calls all his TO and pisses off HC Steichen to kick the FG with 40 secs left.   The bad luck turns with the TO’s used.   Stay tuned for a repeat lol.  


PLAYER PROPS - 7-2, +19.3U - unlucky that Michael Pittman lost because he was at 4-78 before the dirty hit knocked him out.   Will Mallory was a bad call but Ty Chandler was a great call to win a little $ with last minute plays.   But equally fortunate to get 4-64 for Ja’Marr Chase too.   The real good fortune happens on the night game when Sean Payton uses his 3 TO’s to keep DET O pushing and that allows Jahmyr Gibbs to hit the 3rd alt line at 90+ for +800 (which was the #1 call for sure this weekend) & for late takers on Sam Laporta to hit o46.5 & o47.5.    Thank you Sean Payton!    

 

LONGSHOT TD - 0-7, -4U - Lucas Krull & Jameson Williams & Tanner Hudson had plenty of snaps and routes.   The other 4 plays didn’t.  Oh well.   Still a great night but will keep it in mind - bank on some usage (Will Mallory was unexpected, but the other 3 plays aren’t reliable without injury / more snaps going forward).  

So that’s a +16.3U Sunday and now +45.7U heading into Sunday.   Thank you coaches TO literally another 6.5U - 10.5U thanks to you!   Let’s keep it going on Sunday!

 

____________________________

 

WEEK 15 TO SAT SLATE

ATS/ML: 33-32-1, +3.3U (WK 15 SAT - 2-0, +2U)

PLAYER PROPS: 128-111, +150.9U  (WK 15 SAT - 10-2, +36.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 28-216 - +8.0U  (WK 15 SAT - 3-9, +7.1U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400)

TOTAL - +162.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 SAT - +45.7U; 1066U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Ok I’m adding 1 more player prop, targeting another that’s not confirmed yet, and targeting 2-3 more TD plays…

 

NEW ADDED SAT LATE PM - Rasheed Shaheed O34.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +280 1U; 90+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. NYG -   this would be a good play with MT out....but now we might have Chris Olave out as well.    Even with Olave in there, 35+ yards might happen on 1 play (although Derek Carr sucks, no doubt).    Here's the thing - when he hits, he hits big - hence the big alt lines.

Jayden Reed is the only GB receiver with props, so I may add a 2nd, depending on how Sunday goes.  NYJ-MIA weather and BAL-JAX weather (along with ATL-CAR, but who would want to willingly take that now lol) are games I'm fading altogether.   So that’s 40.5U so far on 12 player props for Sunday so far.  I have added my 2 free bet credit plays - Rasheed Shaheed top SUN rec yds player at +7000 0.2U**, and a  YOLO +15000 8-leg 0.2U parley with Shaheed O34.5 rec yds / W-Robinson O31.5 rec yds / M-Evans O67.5 rec yds (wow) / J-Reed O4.5 catches / P-Nacua O69.5 rec yds / C-Samuel O39.5 rec yds / J-Cook O21.5 rec yds / T-Mcbride O49.5 rec yds for +15000 0.2U (truly YOLO).   


For Sunday TD plays, I want to see what will happen with Demario Douglas (+500 / +5000 FD right now) & Juwan Johnson (+500 / +5500 Score, +450 FD) in early slate & Sam Howell late slate with no Brian Robinson again - Howell's around +300 to +325, if we can get past +400 I'll likely take the full-stake (0.8U/0.2U) play.    I'd love to see Douglas get to +600/+700 and then take a shot.   For now, that's 5U Sunday TD props with 10 players.    Howell & Douglas would likely get added, but that's enough for now, especially with 50.5U invested on Sunday's slate (having put in 37U on Sat, but that sweet +16.3U profit)

Let’s see if we can keep the Wk15 momentum going tomorrow!

 

 

Edited by Broncofan
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N4L

N4L

Posted
Posted

Sunday

CHI+3/ML
D'onta Foreman over 41.5 rush yards (waaaay too low)
Mike Evans over 67
SF/ARI over 48
Deebo over 58
Aiyuk over 71
cmc over 86
Kyler over 211 passing yards
Trey McBride over 50
Puka over 70
Kupp over 75
Ferguson over 42
Ravens -3
Lamar over 214 passing yards
keaton mitchell over 10.5 rec yards
zay flowers over 53 rec yards 

Should be a fun Sunday!

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
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8 hours ago, N4L said:

Sunday

CHI+3/ML
D'onta Foreman over 41.5 rush yards (waaaay too low)
Mike Evans over 67
SF/ARI over 48
Deebo over 58
Aiyuk over 71
cmc over 86
Kyler over 211 passing yards
Trey McBride over 50
Puka over 70
Kupp over 75
Ferguson over 42
Ravens -3
Lamar over 214 passing yards
keaton mitchell over 10.5 rec yards
zay flowers over 53 rec yards 

Should be a fun Sunday!

I love the calls as you can see I’m on a lot of them already.  Adding Foreman agree the CLE run D is vulnerable.   Should be 15 yards higher except they think it’s a 3-way timeshare (it’s not).  
 

Re: Flowers my concern is the low ADOT the last 4-5 games since both Rashod Bateman & OBJ returned.   He’s being used more as the short game proxy since Andrews got hurt.   I love his catch prop but want to see how bad the weather gets.  Love the Mitchell rec yds prop vs Jax run D (stout vs. run, awful vs RB, top 3 in yards allowed).  

Adding both;

NEW ADDED SUN AM D'onta Foreman O41.5 rush yds 2U FD, 60+ rush yds +220 1U DK, 80+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK - books see his 50 yds last week on 11 carries and think it's a timeshare 3-ways.  It's not, he still gets 60-70 percent of the snaps and carries.   Against CLE's decimated D, that's more than enough, the total should be at least 12-15 yards higher.  

 

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Keaton Mitchell O10.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +240 & 50+ rec yds +1200 (40+ is +850) DK @ JAX - JAX's run D is great, but their pass coverage vs. RB's is awful, giving up just under 50 yards a game (3rd highest in the league).  I want the highest alt line as my last one, but instead of going 3 alt lines, I'm going go 25-50 (hopefully I don't regret that lol).

 

I"ll look to add Flowers catch props if things are going reasonably well (who am I kidding, I'm probably adding it later regardless lol).   Great finds, BOL!

 

PS - reminder to myself (and others) to check in Noah Gray / Harrison Bryant / Juwan Johnson / Demario Douglas TD odds early, and Sam Howell / Michael Wilson for late slate (both of late game targets need to go up a lot though to take).   Jeremy Ruckert's 2-TD prop came in at +17000 for DK (vs. +12500 Bodog), so took that 0.1U play - card updated.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, adamq said:

Foreman or Antonio Gibson in fantasy? I don't want to rely on AG but Robinson is out

There you take Gibson.   No Brian Robinson, he should carry the ball 10-12x and get 6+ targets.  I'm assuming PPR.   WAS-LAR implied total so much higher as well, so you take the ceiling play.

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