Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

Ok 3 guys I waited on did get the FD boost: 

-Noah Gray +950 FD 

-Tyler Conklin 700 FD 

-Harrison Bryant +950 FD 

2-TD already taken so those are locked in.    3 more late additions: 

 

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Kevin Harris +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. KC** - Zeke GL backup.    Literally no one else on roster except a pass catcher who plays ST.   

**NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Roschon Johnson +900 / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs CLE - the real backup and pass catcher RB in CHI but RB3 odds.

 

NEW ADDED Juwan Johnson +500 TheScore / +5500 2+ FD vs. NYG 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYG -  so many ppl out have to take the half-stake play.  

Edited December 17, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

On 12/15/2023 at 1:08 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Here's my official Props for Saturday's games. 

 

J.Chase O63.5 Receiving - I wanted to bet the Mixon U Rushing here, but with it only being at 56.5, I think Chase is a sneaky good hedge. By that I mean I think it can easily hit if Mixon has a good game, & should have an even better chance of hitting if Mixon is bottled up. I mentioned in a previous post that Minnesota's blitzing tendencies open them up to being exposed with YAC, which is exactly what Chase does best. 

M.Trubisky U16.5 Rushing - This just feels like a massive overreaction to an ugly game against a stingy defense in New England. Trubisky didn't hit the Over on this line once in 2022 over 7 games (never even hit 10 yards) & I expect the Steelers to really lean into the run game & play action in this one. 

D.Montgomery O66.5 Rushing - This is a smash spot for the Lions ground game. I just talked about how the Over was a good play in this game, which means I expect the Lions to sustain drives. DMont has been both volume heavy and efficient this season, & Denver's rush defense is awful. 

S.LaPorta O47.5 Receiving (2u) - Smash spot for LaPorta. Denver does a good job containing WRs but is very leaky to TEs & RBs alike. LaPorta is the type of YAC threat that can expose them on only 3-4 catches. Again, Lions home game means I want the Over on player props. 

N.Harris O53.5 Rushing - Over his last 6 games, Najee has hit this Over in 4 of 6. The two misses came on a short week with a bum knee against a stingy NE run defense & the other was an ugly 23 total point game against Cleveland. PIT's new OC Eddie Faulkner has really leaned on Najee since taking over & I expect the same coming off extra rest days. 

 

Not a bad Saturday. 4-1 with the 2u LaPorta play hitting on Detroit's last offensive play of the game. 

 

Missed out on submitted any props for this morning slate. Any afternoon props I should have my eyes on? 

[SaveOurSonics]

You guys know I love QB Rushing Unders against the 49ers. 

 

Last time Kyler faced this defense he ran 7 times for 1 yard. Not sure what the lines at, but I'll be targeting it. 

[thebestever6]

locked in sam Howell +500 on bet365 and Micheal Wilson  +470 on fanduel.

[thebestever6]

alright who is Kevin Harris I didn't read the write up just tailed lol!

[Dash]

23 hours ago, Dash said:

Yeah I was thinking moreso of parlaying the plus money yardage props. It's on DK and there's props in the +200 range are for 10 more yards. 

I agree that they can hit these props and still lose. And that these plays could not hit at all and the Bears defense does keep rolling with the issues with the CLE pass game going back to the mean as I pointed out earlier in my other post.

This is more of just a stab at a passing game against a pass funnel defense. Not going to put too much money on it.

Let's gooooooooooo!!!!!!!!

[thebestever6]

ii won a 25 unit catch prop parlay Mcbride was in their Curtis Samuel was in there man it was a sweat thankyou!

[Broncofan]

On 12/15/2023 at 12:49 PM, Broncofan said:

OK my Sunday card's also come into shape, so let's dive in....

 

WEEK 15 SUN / MON SLATE

 

ATS/ML

EARLY

NYG +6 @ NO - this is just too wide.   NYG has better coaching right now on both sides of the ball, and Derek Carr wilts under pressure - which is exactly what DC Wink Martindale is best at drawing up.  No, I'm not a Tommy Devito fan - this is as much about me fading the NO team, as their O is absymsal with OC Pete Carmichael at the helm, and the D is suddenly very vulnerable to both the run & the pass (with CB Marshawn Lattimore out).     As the spread is 6, I'm ok with going ATS instead of the ML

CHI +130 ML @ CLE - 4 weeks ago, this would have been ludicrous to suggest.   But there are 3 reasons why this improbable outcome seems viable.   First, the CLE OL is now decimated, having lost both their top 3 T's and now likely their C Pocic.   The CHI D is both stout in the run and covers the deep plays really well, so it negates a lot of what Joe Flacco succeeds in (and can get pressure on the statue-like vet QB with the OL issues as well).     Next, the CLE D has lost key guys on the DL & secondary.   So they're not as good at generating pressure (esp with Myles Garrett playing with a hurt wing - still think he'll get a sack or 2 vs. Fields, but it's not the same sack attack CLE had going earlier this season).  Finally, the CLE run D has become more vulnerable again, which makes it a lot easier for Justin Fields to operate the CHI O.   If Denzel Ward doesn't play again this week, I absolutely believe CHI's O can thrive (and I'd add DJ Moore props there as well).    

TAM - GB O42.5 - I don't know how this line gets set this low when you look at both teams' D - the only reason I don't have more GB props is because they're not out yet.  And yes, I'll take Mike Evans props too.  I see a 27-24 type game....not a 42.5 total.  


SNF

BAL -3 @ JAX -120 (TheScore) - the reality is that the JAX pass D is leaking oil badly.   They've been a bottom 8 pass D the last 6 weeks by DVOA, and it's only getting worse this week IMO.    While it helps to have a healthier Trevor Lawrence this week, I'm good with giving the 3-pts away and take the more talented, and better-coached team.   Nothing against JAX, they're a top 10 team and deserve to be playing in January, but right now BAL is a top 3-4 team at worst.   In a TO-neutral game, this is BAL by 6+.   

 

MNF

PHI -3 @ SEA - this is a massive overreaction to the DAL game IMO.   Yes, the PHI pass D is a problem.  Yes, Jalen Hurts hasn't played as well.   Here's the thing - SEA's D is not playing well, and they're getting beat on the trenches.   On the flip side, Geno Smith gunslinger mode is entertaining, but it also comes with sacks / negative plays.   While I wondered about taking the over, I'm again going with a clearly more talented team, where both teams have coaching issues, so nothing to counter this.   Obviously TO's can flip this around, but in a TO-neutral game, this is PHI by 6+ IMO.  

 

So that's 5U for ATS/ML plays.

 

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY
 

Mike Evans O69.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 67.5 - DOH), 90+ rec yds +200 1U, 120+ rec yds +600 0.5U @ GB - GB's zone D is a perfect balm for Mike Evans, who really can find the soft spot (so can Godwin, but Evans' evolution as a zone buster is what makes him so safe as a top WR1 option even as he approaches age-30).    I'm sad the days of 60-ish main line is gone (because 100+ was the 2nd alt line), but in this week's matchup, where I see fireworks, this sets up for a big day for #13.

Jayden Reed O4.5 catches +110 2U Bodog (SUN AM - now -115; B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 alt lines) vs. TAM - there's no doubt Reed is set up for massive volume with Christian Watson gone.  TAM CB Jamel Dean is likely back, which means they'll have better boundary coverage, but their slot coverage is still a massive liability.  Here's the thing though - Reed's ADOT has cratered.   So he's a volume but needs a lot of YAC to break big chunk plays.   Given that, I'm totally good with the catch prop, and if. you have B365/US FD, then 6-7 catches are certainly in play (8 if you must and it's crazy like +1200 lol). 

Wan'dale Robinson O31.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - same), 50+ rec yds +250 1U & 70+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ NO - on a similar vein to Jayden Reed, Wan'dale is the NYG go-to guy right now.   Unlike Reed, however, his yardage totals are insanely low, which offers the chance to really hit on alt line goodness.   The NO D has been leaking oil, and has been a bottom-half coverage unit since Marshawn Lattimore left (you just couldn't tell with CAR playing them lol).   Taking the target hog at such a low #, sign me up. 

NEW ADDED SUN AM D'onta Foreman O41.5 rush yds 2U FD (DK - 42.5), 60+ rush yds +220 1U DK, 80+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK - books see his 50 yds last week on 11 carries and think it's a timeshare 3-ways.  It's not, he still gets 60-70 percent of the snaps and carries.   Against CLE's decimated D, that's more than enough, the total should be at least 12-15 yards higher.  

NEW ADDED SAT PM Rasheed Shaheed O34.5 rec yds 2U, 60+ rec yds +280 1U, 90+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. NYG - even with Olave in, this would be worth taking, but with Olave possibly out, this is a must-play.   Just pray Carr & OC Carmichael don't kill this (again).

LATE

James Cook O23.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 21.5 DOH), 36+ rec yds +210 1U, 51+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. DAL - on paper, this is a tough DAL pass D vs. RB's.  Here's the thing though - Joe Brady LOVES to use Cook as a pass catcher.   So if you give me a likely shootout, and a total in the low 20's, and alt lines that only need to get past 51+ yards, I'm definitely taking this one.

Curtis Samuel O40.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 39.5), 55+ rec yds +210 1U, 74+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LAR - nothing new since the bye week - as long as it's this weird pass-first O that ignores Jahan Dotson almost completely, and often ignores their most talented guy, Terry Mclaurin - it's C-Samuel who benefits.   It's wild, because TBH I don't even think he's good enough to keep as a starter on good O's - but you can't deny the volume for the low target yardage totals.  

Puka Nacua O67.5 rec yds 2U, 86+ rec yds +210 1U (SUN AM - now 69.5), 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. WAS - I was torn between Kupp and Nacua vs. the league's worst D - but what convinced me was that Nacua's chunk play potential is where WAS really sucks hardest at.  He could hit the main line in 1 play.    NGL, the same could apply to Kupp, but we usually seem him work short-intermediate area now, so I'll go with Puka. 

Deebo Samuel O58.5 rec yds 2U, 78+ rec yds +210 1U (SUN AM - same), 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ ARI - there is risk that the SF run game destroys ARI, and so we don't need the pass game.  But other than that, ARI is also the easiest team to throw against, and no one gives up more wards to WR's except for the Commanders.   So you gotta fire Deebo up at this number, and take the standard alt line play.

Brandon Aiyuk O65.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 70.5), 87+ rec yds +210, 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ ARI - nothing new to add to Deebo's rationale, except to point out George Kittle has the toughest draw with S Budda Baker, so the 2 WR's are the easiest plays this week.

Trey McBride O49.5 rec yds 2U, 65+ rec yds 2U +210 1U (SUN AM - same), 85+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. SF - on paper, this looks like an avoid.  But the 49ers pass D is more vulnerable having lost their all world S Hufanga, and teams that attack the TE D downfield actually succeed - SEA has had 50+ & 60+ yard days, TAM had 50+ yards, and MIN had TJ Hockenson go 8-110 on them.  And yes, Zach Ertz went 6-59 against them, and Ertz has no YAC ability.   Teams that don't feature the TE prominently, the SF D definitely shuts down (and with Hufanga, it was a great TE cover unit with the LB's).    

 

SNF

Odell Beckham Jr. O37.5 rec yds 2U, 53+ rec yds +210 1U & 71+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ JAX - the weather forecast gives me some pause here, but with Zay Flowers totals in the low-50's, I'd much rather attack OBJ here, with his slant usage and YAC ability on a very leaky JAX pass D.  

Travis Etienne O53.5 rush yds 2U, 69+ rush yds +210 1U & 87+ rush yds +500 0.5u DK vs. BAL - fun fact, BAL has gone from being a top 5 run D in the first 6 games of the year, to being a middle-pack D by DVOA in the last 6.   Given that, we know with Trevor Lawrence still healing from his HAS, that the Jags will try to lean on the run.    These totals reflect the old BAL D (and it was so good the season numbers look good).  So sign me up for some #1 getting the rock on Sunday night.   Especially with the weather forecast (rain and winds 20-25 MPH).   

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Keaton Mitchell O9.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 10.5), 25+ rec yds +240 & 50+ rec yds +1200 (40+ is +850) DK @ JAX - JAX's run D is great, but their pass coverage vs. RB's is awful, giving up just under 50 yards a game (3rd highest in the league).  I want the highest alt line as my last one, but instead of going 3 alt lines, I'm going go 25-50 (hopefully I don't regret that lol).

 

MNF

DK Metcalf O63.5 rec yds 2U, 84+ rec yds +210 1U, 105+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. PHI - with Geno Smith now back in practice and almost certainly playing, I can take this spot.   Not only is PHI's pass D leaky, but Darius Slay can't keep up with DK.  We saw it 3 years ago, and if anything, DK is an even bigger monster.   

Tyler Lockett O51.5 rec yds 2U, 71+ rec yds +210 1U, 91+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. PHI - NGL, I'm pretty tempted to just take Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and call it a day, knowing 2/3 and maybe all 3 hit into alt lines in all likelihood.  But for now, I'll stick with the guy who finds his way vs. both zone & man, and will get a TON of slot work - and where PHI still struggles mightily.

Devonta Smith O59.5 rec yds 2U, 79+ rec yds +210 1U, 101+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SEA - on the flip side, even though Dallas Goedert is back, I expect the increased usage for Devonta to continue, especially as AJ Brown will continue to draw the D's attention.

 

Jayden Reed is the only GB receiver with props, so I may add a 2nd, depending on how Sunday goes.  I'm definitely interested in 1-2 more MNF props, but I think those 3 are going to move up quickly if I don't lock in now.  So that's 47.5U so far on 14 player props for Sunday so far.


LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Harrison Bryant +900 DK (+850 FD - will wait to until noon ET) / +20000 2+ DK (taken) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CHI - I won't complain about these #'s.   Because it's FD, I'll wait until after noon ET to lock it in, 2-TD won't change so it's locked in.

Noah Gray +850 FD (+800 DK - will wait to noon ET with FD) / +13000 2+ DK (taken) 0.4U / 0.1U @ NE - don't think I need to explain this one, you keep giving me these type of #'s, I'll take the half-stake play.  As it's FD and it's this high, I will wait until noon ET to lock it in (if it decreases to +800 then I'll take it then, but if it stays the same, very likely to go up as we get closer to game time after noon ET on Sunday). 2-TD won't change, so that's locked in.

Richie James +1600 FD / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ NE - he only had 12 snaps last week, but got 2 targets - and more importantly, had 1 RZ target and about 3-4 RZ snaps.  I think that will increase as KC looks to solve their WR (other than Rashee Rice) woes.   Because the number is already that high, locking it now (as it may decrease quickly if any word of increased usage over Skyy Moore or Kadarius Toney leaks out). 

Isaiah Hodgins +850 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ NO - I'm not chasing last week's TD - he was actually my next one on my list to take (DOH) - it confirms what I've suspected - he's the big body RZ guy.  They use other guys between the 20's now, but his body control, 50-50 ability and size are why they're using him like a RZ specialist.   Bodog's odds won't change, so locking this in now (FD is +800, so if you don't have Bodog, then wait on FD, as it could also rise in the last hour b4 gametime Sunday).

Tyler Conklin +550 Bodog (WAITING ON FD/DK - not out yet FRI PM) / +10000 2+ Bodog (taken) & Jeremy Ruckert +1800 Bodog (taken) / ??? 2+ (WAITING ON DK - +12500 2+ Bodog) -  With the NYJ O finally deciding to take risks and throw downfield, it makes the TE TD play very viable - and man, look at those Ruckert Bodog odds.   As a contrast, on TheScore, Conklin is +500/+5000 2+ & Ruckert is +750 / +8000 2+ (LOL).    I'll lock in the Conklin ATTD once I see FD & DK & 2-TD likely with DK if the odds are even +1000 there for ATTD, should beat Bodog's 2+ TD props (never goes higher than 125-1).

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Deven Thompkins +800 / +11000 2+ DK vs. GB 0.4U / 0.1U - Chris Godwin is the dreaded game-time decision (GTD), but either way Thompkins gets touches as a speed guy and still sees occasional work as the WR3, and obv his prospects soar as their best slot guy after Godwin  so I'm good with the odds here with a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Juwan Johnson +500 TheScore / +5500 2+ FD vs. NYG 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYG -  so many ppl out have to take the half-stake play.  

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Kevin Harris +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. KC** - Zeke GL backup.    Literally no one else on roster except a pass catcher who plays ST.   

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Roschon Johnson +900 / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs CLE - the real backup and pass catcher RB in CHI but RB3 odds.

LATE

Cole Turner +1300 / +16000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ LAR - the LAR TE D is really vulnerable (so is WAS, but books have caught on - Davis Allen is +250 lol).  And WAS is in rebuild mode, so I do believe that we will see more Turner on the field.   More importantly, Logan Thomas has really become less effective, which again leads to more Turner.  I was undecided on taking this, but then I see FD already dropped Turner & Bates to +650 EACH.    So IMO they know a change may be coming.  

Ty Johnson +1100 Bodog (+1000 DK) / +15000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DAL - this is a case where some books have caught on that Johnson is starting to take over from Latavius Murry as the backup.   His snaps and touches are increasing, and he's been used in the RZ.  Yet he's getting priced like 3rd RB.   FD & Bodog have already caught on - he's +575 & +700 there.   Have to take a half-stake stab and be a game early rather than a game late. 

 

SNF

Nelson Agholor +700 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX (waiting on weather / last-hour odds increase with FD) - the weather is an issue, but really, Agholor is their 3rd WR, and the one they use in the RZ as well.   With Mark Andrews out, it's a lot more spread out re: RZ targets, Agholor got 2 last week.  It's tough to take a guy with bad hands as a TD play, but the volume and odds make this an auto-play at those #'s.  Since it's SNF and also has weather concerns, definitely a play to wait on until after 7 PM ET on Sunday.

MNF

Colby Parkinson +900 / +12500 Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - not trying to chase last week's TD - it's that PHI's TE D is so vulnerable.   Knew it was coming eventually, but couldn't trust Drew Lock (and TBF, it saved me on DK Metcalf props & alt lines).   

 

For Sunday, I want to see what will happen with Demario Douglas (+500 right now), Juwan Johnson (+500 / +5500 2+ on TheScore, +450 / +5000 2+ FD)  & Sam Howell & Michael Wilson late - Howell & Wilson are both around +300 to +325, if we can get past +400 I'll likely take the full-stake (0.8U/0.2U) play on Howell, half-stake on the others.    I'd love to see Douglas get to +600/+700 and then take a shot.   For now, that's 6.5U in Sunday TD props with 13 players.    Howell & Douglas would likely get added, but that's enough for now, especially with 59U invested on Sunday's slate (and 37U on Sat lol).   

 

Let's see if we can keep the momentum from TNF going!

 

WEEK 15 TO SAT SLATE

ATS/ML: 33-32-1, +3.3U (WK 15 SAT - 2-0, +2U)

PLAYER PROPS: 128-111, +150.9U  (WK 15 SAT - 10-2, +36.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 28-216 - +8.0U  (WK 15 SAT - 3-9, +7.1U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400)

TOTAL - +162.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 SAT - +45.7U; 1066U stake so far)

Well that was quite the rollercoaster lol......

WEEK 15 SUN DAY SLATE RECAP

ATS/ML - 1-2, -1U - NYG +6 was a bad call (I wasn't a Tommy Devito believer, but OMG that was bruuutal).   CHI ML looked great until the last 5 mins, and then that agonizing Hail Mary lol.   TAM-NYG was an easy over. 

PLAYER PROPS - 5-6, -7.3U - frankly, it was fortunate that Curtis Samuel got his O40.5 on the last play for the WAS O lol.    SF went heavy on the run and CMC/Kittle ate, so no need for the WR's, and it was Kupp, not Nacua, who ate.   Wan'dale Robinson got Devito'd, but that's a lesson learned.   Trey McBride & James Cook helped cushion the blow, as the other 3 winners were main-line only.   

LONGSHOT TD - 2-10 (Cole Turner voids), +5.2U -  the Jets & G-men TD plays were awful with Trevor Siemien in there (it's crazy how their backups are THAT much worse than the terrible Zach Wilson) and Tommy DeVito for the G-men.   The Harrison Bryant, Noah Gray & Richie James, Roschon Johnson, Deven Thompkins and Ty Johnson all got a lot of work, so can't complain at those odds.  But yes, Juwan Johnson & Kevin Harris really helped save the day, and minimize the losses.   I'll take it.

So that's a -3.1U day, but still a great +42.6U week going.   Let's see if we can keep it going with SNF & MNF!

 

_______________

 

WEEK 15 TO SNF

ATS/ML: 34-34-1, +2.3U (WK 15 TO SNF - 3-2, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 133-117, +143.6U  (WK 15 TO SNF - 10-2, +29.3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 30-226- +13.2U  (WK 15 TO SNF - 5-19, +12.3U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000)

TOTAL - +159.1U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 to SNF - +42.6U; 1126U stake so far <including SNF stake-wise>)

Edited December 18, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

So here are the plays left for SNF tonight, only 1 new play (Charlie Kolar TD, doubled up on Agholor TD)....

WEEK 15 SNF

ATS/ML

BAL -3 @ JAX -120 (TheScore) - the reality is that the JAX pass D is leaking oil badly.   They've been a bottom 8 pass D the last 6 weeks by DVOA, and it's only getting worse this week IMO.    While it helps to have a healthier Trevor Lawrence this week, I'm good with giving the 3-pts away and take the more talented, and better-coached team.   Nothing against JAX, they're a top 10 team and deserve to be playing in January, but right now BAL is a top 3-4 team at worst.   In a TO-neutral game, this is BAL by 6+.   

 

PLAYER PROPS

Odell Beckham Jr. O37.5 rec yds 2U, 53+ rec yds +210 1U & 71+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ JAX - the weather forecast gives me some pause here, but with Zay Flowers totals in the low-50's, I'd much rather attack OBJ here, with his slant usage and YAC ability on a very leaky JAX pass D.  

Travis Etienne O53.5 rush yds 2U, 69+ rush yds +210 1U & 87+ rush yds +500 0.5u DK vs. BAL - fun fact, BAL has gone from being a top 5 run D in the first 6 games of the year, to being a middle-pack D by DVOA in the last 6.   Given that, we know with Trevor Lawrence still healing from his HAS, that the Jags will try to lean on the run.    These totals reflect the old BAL D (and it was so good the season numbers look good).  So sign me up for some #1 getting the rock on Sunday night.   Especially with the weather forecast (rain and winds 20-25 MPH).   

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Keaton Mitchell O9.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 10.5), 25+ rec yds +240 & 50+ rec yds +1200 (40+ is +850) DK @ JAX - JAX's run D is great, but their pass coverage vs. RB's is awful, giving up just under 50 yards a game (3rd highest in the league).  I want the highest alt line as my last one, but instead of going 3 alt lines, I'm going go 25-50 (hopefully I don't regret that lol).

 

LONGSHOT TD

SUN PM  DOUBLED STAKE - Nelson Agholor  +800 DK (+750 FD) / +12000 2+ FD <increase to> 0.8U / 0.2U @ JAX ) - the weather is an issue, but really, Agholor is their 3rd WR, and the one they use in the RZ as well.   With Mark Andrews out, it's a lot more spread out re: RZ targets, Agholor got 2 last week.  It's tough to take a guy with bad hands as a TD play, but the volume and odds make this an auto-play at those #'s.  With the weather, both DK & FD increase the odds, so I have to take it here.

NEW SUN PM - Charlie Kolar +1800 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U v@ JAX - he's the pure blocking TE, but he plays in 12 formation, which I expect the Ravens will use a lot in the RZ.   At these odds, worth a half-unit stake.

So it's 13U for SNF (but only Kolar is a new play, Agholor doubling the stake).   Let's see if we can keep the WK15 profit going after treading water in the daytime!

 

 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

damn Charlie was right there!!!

[SaveOurSonics]

7 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

You guys know I love QB Rushing Unders against the 49ers. 

 

Last time Kyler faced this defense he ran 7 times for 1 yard. Not sure what the lines at, but I'll be targeting it. 

Very solid prop afternoon overall. Kyler Under Rushing actually missed as he ate serious yards on the final garbage time drive. 

C.Kupp O75.5 Receiving ✅

C.Kupp O5.5 Catches ✅

K.Williams O92.5 Rushing ✅

CMC O85.5 Rushing ✅

T.Pollard O20.5 Receiving ❌

 

And have hit Keaton Mitchell O10.5 Receiving (first drive) and Isaiah Likely O32.5 Receiving (first half). ✅✅

 

Nice 6-2 day with props. 

[Broncofan]

So WEEK 15 SNF was a dud - 1-0 ATS, 1-2 props (but only main line, no alt line for Mitchell), so -6.5U, and -1.5U for TD (lots of snaps for Agholor in RZ, and Kolar was THAT close, tackled at 2, 1 guy to beat)....but that's the way it goes, -7U for SNF, so still a great WK15 at +35.6U, but looking to get things moving back in the right direction for MNF....

WEEK 15 TO MNF

ATS/ML: 35-34-1, +3.3U (WK 15 TO MNF - 4-2, +2U)

PLAYER PROPS: 133-117, +137.1U  (WK 15 TO MNF - 11-4, +22.8U)

LONGSHOT TD: 30-226- +11.7U  (WK 15 TO MNF - 5-21, +10.8U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000)

TOTAL - +152.1U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 to MNF - +35.6U; 1126U stake so far)

[SaveOurSonics]

On 12/15/2023 at 1:09 PM, N4L said:

 

It is the gibbs rushing prop, not rec. Anyone betting his rec props have take lock imo 

Meant to respond here. I really need to change my book next year because Gibbs Rushing wasn't even available. You guys are right, that was the far better play over DMont, but I didn't have visibility on it. 

Still felt good about both hitting. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Maaaan my Jaguars division futures looking bleak. Down to -130 odds now. This is why you can’t lose to Joe Flacco and Jake Browning bc when you play a real elite level QB those games are so tough to win

[JonStark]

Absolutely brutal Sunday. Went in up 12U and left down 4.5U. 

Probably staying away from tonight too except for some DK and maybe Gainwell props. Too much uncertainty whether or not Hurts is going to play.