Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) triple post lol Edited December 28, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Great call to take the Packers ML early in the week, the Vikings just announced that they're rolling with Hall at QB. It's basically a pick'em at this point, I'm assuming the Packers will be favored before the game starts. @Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Ravens locker room feels a bit too hyped after that 49ers win. Also 1 less day to prepare than the dolphins (basically 2, they got home like 3-4am on Tuesday), i’m taking Dolphins ML +155 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Ray Reed said: Ravens locker room feels a bit too hyped after that 49ers win. Also 1 less day to prepare than the dolphins (basically 2, they got home like 3-4am on Tuesday), i’m taking Dolphins ML +155 I don't mind the play, but if you want to REALLY get cute - think about Tua Tagovailoa MVP +1000 - because if MIA wins and gets the 1 seed, then that's a scenario where Tua becomes the MVP favorite (Lamar is the frontrunner right now). OBV there's a way you lose the award and MIA wins the game, but there's a lot of correlation there, and it's a way of maxing out value IMO. If you're holding on to a Lamar MVP ticket, it's a nice hedge. Your call. Edited December 28, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I don't mind the play, but if you want to REALLY get cute - think about Tua Tagovailoa MVP +1000 - because if MIA wins and gets the 1 seed, then that's a scenario were Tua becomes the MVP favorite (Lamar is the frontrunner right now). OBV there's a way you lose the award and MIA wins the game, but there's a lot of correlation there, and it's a way of maxing out value IMO. If you're holding on to a Lamar MVP ticket, it's a nice hedge. Your call. At first you had my curiosity. Now you have my attention. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) Well, Week 17 is going to either be amazing with ROI, or it's going to be a mega-frustating viewing day - because I am peppering the low-middle yardage player prop targets. It's just wild to me, as the usage / matchup / gamescript all line up for these guys. If it misses, I'm going to be basically cursing the TV all afternoon long, since the totals are so low - but on the flip side, if the usage & gamescript bear out, then the potential to hit alt lines across the board is massive this week. 4 I'm adding now (along with the 1 I mentioned), and there are likely 2 late-slate additions that won't be in the high-yardage EARLY NEW ADDED THU PM - Daniel Bellinger O10.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending vs. LAR - covered before. NEW ADDED THU PM - Tommy Tremble O12.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending @ JAX - JAX top 5 run D, bottom 5 TE pass D, Tremble's averaged 70+ percent snap share and 6+ targets a game since Hurst went on IR. He's gone 4-32 and 5-48 last 2 weeks alone. 25+ & 40+ smash alt lines, if I'm allowed I'd go 3 alt lines here. NEW ADDED THU PM - James Cook O21.5 rec yds 2U DK, 40+ rec yds +280 1U, 60+ rec yds +800 0.5U DK vs. NE - NE another top 5 run D, and pass D aims to limit biggest weapons (Diggs)....lets the RB's & TE's eat - give up approx 45+ yards a game to RB's. 40+/60+ alt lines in play with Cook's usage with new OC Joe Brady. NEW ADDED THU PM - Noah Brown O42.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending @ TEN - TEN a bottom 5 WR D, and CJ Stroud is back. Brown's 2 games when 1 of the big 2 WR's was gone, with Stroud playing the whole game - 5-163 & 7-172, and prior game vs. TEN without Stroud was 8-83. Easy alt line play. LATE NEW ADDED THU PM - Diontae Johnson O41.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 44.5), alt lines pending @ SEA - Devin Witherspoon shadowing George Pickens, which puts Diontae with best matchup. Whiffed last week, but Mason Rudolph missed him 2x for huge yardage, and acknowledged it last week. Bounce back with reliable volume / matchup / gamescript. I still have at least 2 more low-mid range player prop targets for the late slate (Richie James vs. CIN in teens, and Jerry Jeudy vs. LAC if it's in 40's). And then I have 2-3 more for SNF....sheesh. Updated main card, linked below: Edited December 28, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 48 minutes ago, Broncofan said: If you're holding on to a Lamar MVP ticket, it's a nice hedge. Your call. got him at +1200 earlier in the week when you said that's the only one you'd consider a hedge with. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 Just now, thebestever6 said: got him at +1200 earlier in the week when you said that's the only one you'd consider a hedge with. Yeah, I just think if ppl are going to bet on MIA, at least split it with a Tua MVP play, because the correlation is clearly there (MIA 1 seed, better case for Tua, given his stats advantage). I still lean BAL winning, but I don't mind the dog odds - what I definitely love is 10-1 or 12-1 instead of +185, albeit without perfect correlation. It's like taking the dog SB QB to win MVP at those numbers, instead of the team. Every once in a while it backfires, but you rarely see QB get SB MVP odds like you're seeing with MVP voting right now, between the 2 teams most likely to finish 1st in the AFC (and Purdy likely having lost his chance b4, and Dak/Hurts recently). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 (edited) @thebestever6 @NYRaider @N4L @SmittyBacall @JonStark@adamq & others (Jag & Supersonic I know can't get this) - Randall Cobb will be active, Lazard will not be. Maybe Cobb gets no action, but he's +3900 on FD to score a TD. 39-1 lol. I mean, skip a coffee & donut(s) and put $5 on it lol. As a contrast on DK Cobb is +1400 (and no, I wouldn't play it given CLE D...but 39-1, come on...YOLO Randall Cobb +3900 DK / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U/0.1U play). Edited December 28, 2023 by Broncofan 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 On 12/20/2023 at 11:04 AM, SaveOurSonics said: I'm not sure I consider Amari Cooper a big bodied box out receiver. He is bigger, yes, but tends to win much more like a smaller receiver with deceptive routes and a feel for soft zones. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe Stingley shadows & I believe Ryans runs a lot of zone coverage. All of that said, it doesn't much matter if CJ Stroud isn't playing. Perhaps the lines will be suppressed as a result & still attractive, but this game won't have the shootout potential I imagined if he's out. Tennessee's OL has been awful, but Seattle has been just about equally miserable against the run recently, the game is in Tennessee, short week for Seattle's defense, and the spread is only SEA -2.5, suggesting this game shouldn't necessarily get away from the Titans. We'll see what his number is at. Anything in the 50's and even low 60's I'd likely play. Safe to say it was an explosion game for Amari Cooper. Henry also hits. I've hardly even looked at the slate for this week. Gonna read through this thread for some insight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: I don't mind the play, but if you want to REALLY get cute - think about Tua Tagovailoa MVP +1000 - because if MIA wins and gets the 1 seed, then that's a scenario where Tua becomes the MVP favorite (Lamar is the frontrunner right now). OBV there's a way you lose the award and MIA wins the game, but there's a lot of correlation there, and it's a way of maxing out value IMO. If you're holding on to a Lamar MVP ticket, it's a nice hedge. Your call. This is exactly what I did. 👍 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 28, 2023 Share Posted December 28, 2023 22 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: We left Christmas morning and wont return until Friday DK had the audacity to send me a notification of a promo offer and i cant even participate in bc im in SC I'm a degenerate too lol my boss gave me a 5% raise today and I was calculating how many $5 parlays that is lmao. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 (edited) Whoa. David Bell +1200 / Harrison Bryant +1400 / Cedric Tillman +600. All in play. Edited December 29, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 5 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Whoa. David Bell +1200 / Harrison Bryant +1400 / Cedric Tillman +600. All in play. Any thoughts on Akins? Cobb down to +2000 already lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Just now, adamq said: Any thoughts on Akins? Cobb down to +2000 already lol Can’t really play Cobb at that number. Akins isn’t bad but that’s 3rd TE territory. I usually keep it to 2nd lol. it’s hard for me to criticize any play I mean I just bet on Randall Cobb. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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