SlevinKelevra Posted January 14, 2020 Share Posted January 14, 2020 (edited) you have to look {per player being discussed, Hargrave vs Dupree} at impact above replacement per snap-dollar vs impact above replacement per snap-dollar and how the difference in those 2 affects your cap ability to sign others on the same metric. the team that wins (in theory) has the most impact above replacement snaps per game. How the team grades that 'impact' and how much above a replacement it is, is of course probably wrong since the Steelers historically misjudge FA and resignings. Although the Fitzpatrick acquisition has me optimistic they realize they have poor scouting/judgement/etc. Edited January 14, 2020 by SlevinKelevra 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeler Hitman Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 18 hours ago, MOSteelers56 said: I wouldn't worry too much about replacing too much, honestly. If we could get A'Shawn Robinson, like you mentioned, I think he would do just as well as Hargrave does for us. I think Buggs will step in and replace Hargraves' pass rushing place in the rotation. Remember with a healthy Tuitt and Heyward, we don't see a lot of Hargraves in the subpackage defenses. If we signed Robinson he could play in our base and help stuff the run. I don't think hargraves is that tough to replace because we simply don't play him enough. If we played in a 4-3 it would be a much different story. I agree. Hargraves would probably do very well in a traditional a 4-3. I would guess that he would sign with a team that plays a more traditional 4-3. In his expanded role with the Steelers he put up some very good numbers as an interior DL (60 total tackles, 4 sacks, 6 QB hits and 1 forced fumble). I really like him, but I think that his play/role could be replaced. I think this years' play-offs are showing the need for traditional complimentary football (Solid defense and a consistent and persistent rushing attack). We have some very good pieces on defense adding a couple solid big men (I am all for replacing McCullers at this point as well). In a perfect world getting A'Shawn and Andrew would help our run defense and keep lineman off of our ILB's or safeties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
August4th Posted January 15, 2020 Share Posted January 15, 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Ok so the justification for paying Hargrave over Dupree: I think looking at it as "we have Tuitt and Heyward, not an OLB" is ver very short sighted. Heyward, Tuitt, Hargrave, Watt were all top 10 in terms of double team percent beat. Guess what, Dupree was average in single blockers beat. So it's more wise to spend 7 digits on a player that has proven to beat double teams and has an effect, and we work to rotate DL more (in case you didn't notice, we did that much more this year) over spending 7 digits on a guy that doesn't consistently beat single blockers and struggles against the double team. Let's say you budget $19mil to these positions. So the options end up: Dupree at $14-16mil a year, and Beau Allen at $3mil. OR Hargrave at $12-13mil, Jabaal Sheard and a rookie, OR Hargrave, Mario Addison and a Rookie. Give me the ladder options. When you throw 2-3-4 options that need a double, anyone will work on the other end. Paying Dupree would be a stupid mistake. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chieferific Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 3 hours ago, warfelg said: Ok so the justification for paying Hargrave over Dupree: I think looking at it as "we have Tuitt and Heyward, not an OLB" is ver very short sighted. Heyward, Tuitt, Hargrave, Watt were all top 10 in terms of double team percent beat. Guess what, Dupree was average in single blockers beat. So it's more wise to spend 7 digits on a player that has proven to beat double teams and has an effect, and we work to rotate DL more (in case you didn't notice, we did that much more this year) over spending 7 digits on a guy that doesn't consistently beat single blockers and struggles against the double team. Let's say you budget $19mil to these positions. So the options end up: Dupree at $14-16mil a year, and Beau Allen at $3mil. OR Hargrave at $12-13mil, Jabaal Sheard and a rookie, OR Hargrave, Mario Addison and a Rookie. Give me the ladder options. When you throw 2-3-4 options that need a double, anyone will work on the other end. Paying Dupree would be a stupid mistake. Going the "Sign Hargrave route", what Rookies do you see being able to make an impact by year 2 or 3? Addison and Sheard aren't long term answers. Uche? Baun? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Is it easier to find OLB for a 3-4 in the draft or DTs that play 1/2 the snaps? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 1 hour ago, Chieferific said: Going the "Sign Hargrave route", what Rookies do you see being able to make an impact by year 2 or 3? Addison and Sheard aren't long term answers. Uche? Baun? I haven’t kept up too much on it, I’ll take a look this weekend, but there’s a few. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 15 minutes ago, jebrick said: Is it easier to find OLB for a 3-4 in the draft or DTs that play 1/2 the snaps? In a vacuum no but that’s what seems to be getting applied here. Forget the positions. Who’s the better player, Hargrave or Dupree? Now which impact is easier to replace? Based on the ability for Heyward, Tuitt, Watt, Hargrave to beat doubles (therefore necessitating doubles), Duprees spot should be the easiest to replace because it’s facing the least resistance to the QB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 (edited) Should be and reality are two different things here. With their cap situation they may keep neither. I would rather pay 14-16M for a player that plays all snaps vs 10-12M for a player that plays 1/2 of the defensive snaps. And the Steelers would have to overpay Hargraves to stay as others would see him as a 3-tech and for the Steelers he can be nothing more than a NT. This season, with Tuitt's injury, Hargrave played 62% of the snaps. Last year, a more normal season, he played 43%. Dupree played 90% of the snaps in 2019 and 83% in 2018. He had more snaps than Watt and Heyward in 2019 Edited January 16, 2020 by jebrick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcash4 Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 5 hours ago, warfelg said: Ok so the justification for paying Hargrave I’d rather just stop here, because I don’t think there is a justification in paying 1/4th of your cap space on 3 players at a position that plays 2 65% of the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jebrick Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 Just for fun Rosenhaus just dropped AB as a client. Damm Ben is at it again. https://bleacherreport.com/post/nfl/0a6f0f96-119b-4058-8a39-998b5c13f03a 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeler Hitman Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 23 minutes ago, warfelg said: In a vacuum no but that’s what seems to be getting applied here. Forget the positions. Who’s the better player, Hargrave or Dupree? Now which impact is easier to replace? Based on the ability for Heyward, Tuitt, Watt, Hargrave to beat doubles (therefore necessitating doubles), Duprees spot should be the easiest to replace because it’s facing the least resistance to the QB. Bud is playing OLB not DT or NG. Yes you need a DT or a NG to beat a double team. Bud can speed or power through the LT and at most would have to fight off being chipped. Bud also has Watt on the other side. That is the guy who draws most double teams. 43 minutes ago, jebrick said: Is it easier to find OLB for a 3-4 in the draft or DTs that play 1/2 the snaps? Sign a free agent or two who can help us get a little bigger and stout inside. It took Bud all of his rookie deal to finally break through. This is Keenen Lewis Part Two and no Cortez Allen behind Bud to gamble on. We see how that turned out. For the record, I was a fan of keeping Allen over Lewis. 1 hour ago, Chieferific said: Going the "Sign Hargrave route", what Rookies do you see being able to make an impact by year 2 or 3? Addison and Sheard aren't long term answers. Uche? Baun? Agreed! A'Shaun and/or Billings strengthens the run defense. We also have Buggs and Watson to back-up at the DE positions. I like Tyson, but would probably gamble on the young guys stepping up and save his salary. That is why O would want someone who was tough on the inside. 4 hours ago, warfelg said: Ok so the justification for paying Hargrave over Dupree: I think looking at it as "we have Tuitt and Heyward, not an OLB" is ver very short sighted. With all do respect my friend, I don't think that is being short-sided; it is being realistic. Bud put up numbers that won't be easy to duplicate. Yes this feels a lot like what happened with former CB Lewis that we let go to the Saints and kept Cortez Allen. We don't have proven depth at OLB. The truth is that we do have Tuitt and Heyward under contract. The team will typically employ them in the base or the Nickel which they play more of anyway. hargraves would be the odd man out. He is third on my depth chart behind Heyard and Tuitt. That is not a slap in the face to Hargraves. He is good and has developed quite well. I do think his best football is still ahead of him. But, he still would not maek the impact of Cam and Tuiit. I also think that despite his heart, he is undersized without having a big-wide body inside next to him. hence 4-3 is ideal for him. Much easier and cheaper, in my humble opinion, to replace Hargraves than Bud. We lose, Bud, we lose a starter with nothing proven behind him and it will cost much more for probably less production. Heyward, Tuitt, Hargrave, Watt were all top 10 in terms of double team percent beat. Guess what, Dupree was average in single blockers beat. So it's more wise to spend 7 digits on a player that has proven to beat double teams and has an effect, and we work to rotate DL more (in case you didn't notice, we did that much more this year) over spending 7 digits on a guy that doesn't consistently beat single blockers and struggles against the double team. Double teams are only one aspect of the game. Love Bud or hate him, he improved and played extremely well. Yes people will call him over-rated based on his past, but he still probably has not reached his ceiling. He does pair well with Watt. That is a heck of a one two punch. Hargraves had very solid numbers,but a healthy Tuitt would equal that. hargraves is also not great against the run. Get a bigger body or two ( I have been lobbying to get rid of Mt. McCullers because I don't think he does muchpass or rush defense). Bud can play the run, does generate pressure (and now finally actual sacks). is impact is greater to the defense than Hargraves. No knock to Hargraves, but truth. We needed what Bud did much moreso than what Hargraves did. No knock to Hragraves. I think Tuitt is a better fit for our defense and get he and Cam some big guys inside to rotate with. Both Cam and TTuitt can also play DE in a big Nickel package (more versatility). Hargaves really doesn't have the body or style to play DE. Let's say you budget $19mil to these positions. So the options end up: Dupree at $14-16mil a year, and Beau Allen at $3mil. OR Hargrave at $12-13mil, Jabaal Sheard and a rookie, OR Hargrave, Mario Addison and a Rookie. The salary for the positions is what it is. Hargraves is not Aaron Donald. He's good, but not great. Yes, I would take Aaron Donald over BUd, but not Hargraves. In a perfect world, I would want both. Unfortunately to keep both you would be looking at conservitively spending around $26 million for both (again that is on the low end). Jabaal Sheard is not going to put up Bud's number. I like him, he does some good things, but in a perfect world would be a great rotation guy, but he too is not going to be but so cheap. Last year he made $8.5 million. Give me the ladder options. When you throw 2-3-4 options that need a double, anyone will work on the other end. Paying Dupree would be a stupid mistake. Give me Bud, Let me sign a lesser priced but, better back-up than Chickello, and I can sign Billings and/or A'Shaun to replace Hargraves. They won't give me his pass rush, but would be better at run stuffing. I am by no means suggesting that you are wrong, just discussing a different viewpoint. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warfelg Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I keep seeing this “Dupree put up numbers” as why to pay him if you have to pick. What I don’t see is anyone contextualizing those numbers and why Hargreaves numbers were more impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 45 minutes ago, warfelg said: I keep seeing this “Dupree put up numbers” as why to pay him if you have to pick. What I don’t see is anyone contextualizing those numbers and why Hargreaves numbers were more impressive. I'm extremely concerned that Dupree is going to prove to be a 1 hit wonder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VigilantZombie Posted January 16, 2020 Share Posted January 16, 2020 I like the Matt Canada hire. I have a feeling that when Ben Calls it quits AV, Pouncey, Heyward, Haden Tomlin, Butler, Fichtner, and Colbert will do the same. When that happens it would not surprise me if Matt Canada becomes the future OC and Austin the future DC under whomever becomes the next HC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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