BDl 2019 Week 12 - Lancaster Werewolves @ Cuba Smugglers

[SirA1]

BDL 2019 Week 12

Match: Lancaster Werewolves @ Cuba Smugglers

Away Owner: @rackcs

Home Owner: @MD4L

Vote for who you think will win this game.

Rules:
One vote per person, duplicate accounts will be banned and action taken against those attempting to rig the results.

One vote per team involved in the match. Co-owners may vote in every match up except their own.

For members, who have been following along, and wish to vote.  Please join the conversation and maybe give a reason you voted as you did. This will alleviate any suspicions of unusual voting and will promote discussion.

Note: Players that have a (D) next to their name indicate that they are doubtful or unlikely to play. Players with (Q) are game-time decisions.

Good luck to you both

[SirA1]

Lancaster Werewolves

 

QB: Baker Mayfield
RB1: Alvin Kamara
WR1: Odell Beckham Jr.
WR2: Mike Evans
WR3: Sterling Shepard
TE: George Kittle (Q)
LT: Taylor Lewan
LG: Quenton Nelson
C: Nick Martin
RG: Cody Whitehair
RT: Lane Johnson

QB: Philip Rivers

RB2: Matt Breida (D)
RB3: Royce Freeman
RB4: Miles Sanders
WR4: Josh Reynolds
WR5: Dante Pettis
TE2: Jonnu Smith
OL: Trent Brown

DE: Joey Bosa
DT: Kenny Clark
DT: Ndamukong Suh
DE: T.J. Watt
LB: Bobby Wagner
LB: Anthony Barr
CB1: Jalen Ramsey
CB2: James Bradberry
SCB: Jaire Alexander
FS: Eddie Jackson
SS: Vonn Bell

INT: Andrew Billings
INT: Christian Wilkins
EDGE: Shaquil Barrett
LB: Fred Warner
CB: Kevin King
CB: Brian Poole
CB: DJ Hayden
S: Xavier Woods 

Cuba Smugglers

Offense

QB: DeShaun Watson 

RB: Dalvin Cook

WR: Julio Jones

WR: DJ Chark

WR: Brandin Cooks

TE: Eric Ebron

LT: Anthony Castonzo

LG: Elgton Jenkins

C: Ryan Jensen

RG: David DeCastro

RT: Germain Ifedi

 

RB: James Williams 

RB: Damien Williams

WR: Kenny Stills

OW: Jaylen Samuels

TE: Josh Hill

OW: Taysom Hill

WR: Ted Ginn Jr.

OL: Justin Murray 

 

Edge: Jerry Hughes 

DT: Jarran Reid

NT: Fletcher Cox 

Edge: Kyle Van Noy 

WLB: KJ Wright 

MLB: Eric Kendricks 

RCB: Kenny Moore

NCB: Darqueze Dennard

FS: Rodney McLeod

SS: Tyrann Mathieu 

LCB: Richard Sherman 

 

Edge: Arik Armstead

DT: Jurrell Casey

DE: Denico Autry

LB: Sean Lee

LB: De’Vondre Campbell

CB: Trae Waynes

CB: Isaiah Oliver

S: Khari Willis

Edited November 24, 2019 by SirA1

[SirA1]

Lancaster Werewolves

Offensive strategy: We're going to look to use a balanced attack this week against a solid Cuba defense. With our offense looking finally healthy this week (minus Ragnow) we should have success attacking the weak points of their D.

Passing strategy: We're finally starting the Bakermania era with the benching of Rivers. Baker has struggled this year but it's clear that the regression is the fault of his IRL coaching staff not playing to his strengths. We're going to do the opposite by a) providing him a good OL and b) focusing on a quick, short passing game rather than going deep all the time. Were going to get the balls into the hands of our great receiving group (welcome back Shepard and Kittle) and letting them work with the ball. Of course as usual we'll be getting Kamara involved in the passing game out of the backfield and out wide. With the plethora of weapons we have available and the strong OL in front of him, Baker should be able to get things going and put points on the board against Cuba's solid but beatable secondary. 

Running strategy: We're going to want to get the running game going today to keep the defense honest and help out Baker in that way. We think Kamara will have lots of success attacking the edges with pitches and tosses with pulling guards to take his LBs out of the play. We of course will also be able to attack the interior since we've got one of the best run blocking OLs in the game and should get plenty of push up front.

Defensive strategy: We want our main focus to be on getting our pass rush going since we've got three of the top pass rushers in the game and Cuba's OL is beatable. We'll be rotating them around frequently. Cuba has a plethora of weapons so our best bet is stopping the QB from getting going. 

Passing defense strategy: Today we're going to put Jalen Ramsey on Julio Jones in what should be a good matchup where both get their's. Jaire Alexander will play on Chark and Bradberry will cover Stills. Eddie Jackson will play a deep zone in case any of our guys get burned. Bell will be in the box to play the run and will cover Cook if he comes out of the backfield. Bobby Wagner will cover Ebron. Barr will play a shallow zone to help stop any short stuff and occasionally blitzing. We're going to push hard against their OL with our edge guys to really get to Watson. We're also occasionally going to bringing in Woods and his coverage ability to also play deep zones in obvious passing situations, in which case Barr would cover Cook out of the backfield. 

Running defense strategy: We once again have an extra man in the box in Bell who is a strong run defender. We're also going to bring in Fred Warner on obvious running downs to help neutralize Cook. 

 

Cuba Smugglers

We lost last week and lost the first time we played Lancaster. This is a 2nd chance to win the division championship. 

Offense

Brandin Cooks is back this week, so Watson has the full arsenal. Cooks will immediately be featured on some sweeps and screens to keep him involved and make Lancaster account for his ability. We have enough weapons to get Julio or DJ Chark in isolated coverage. If Lancaster plays a man coverage defense we think this is important to give Watson the matchups he needs for a strong performance. If Lancaster plays a zone based defense, we think Watson can make enough plays to keep our offense in a good position. We move Julio around for openings and in zone we think he can maintain a high level of involvement. We can move DJ Chark and Julio into stack positions so they can force one player to decide between both options in as they run flood concepts attacking the same area. Either way we’re preparing for a man based defense. Ramsey against Julio will yield success for both sides so we don’t intend to remove Julio from our target list. Jaire Alexander vs DJ Chark is a matchup we wish to avoid hence the significant involvement of Brandin Cooks. If Alexander covers Chark with safety help we will avoid that matchup. In any other double coverage situation we think Chark could produce a solid performance as his ability should free Cooks and Ebron in winnable matchups. Watson is a valued runner on short downs, Ted Ginn comes in as the 4th WR to stretch the field while Stills is a nice target to spell any of our three starters. Watson will have formations with Jamaal Williams spelling Cook or formations with Williams and Samuels in the back field together. Those two players are check down options that set up shovel tosses and general throws without a drop back to offset a potent pass rush. We can also utilize some play action bootlegs to minimize both situations where the pocket collapses. Ebron should play about 45% percent of the snaps. Josh Hill occupies the other 35% of formations where we use one or two TEs. His blocking ability will benefit Germain Ifedi who deals with a tough task in TJ Watt. Justin Murray, who just made PFF’s team of the week will play RT on snaps on no huddle formations to offset Ifedi’s occasional issue. 

 

Dalvin Cook will get the most touches in another workhorse lite performance. This is what we’ve done for most of the season. Having counters with Jenkins or DeCastro leading the way. DeCastro in particular moving to the left side behind Jenkins to form a wall with Castonzo is our favorite matchup. This is a valid way to make Joey Bosa earn his keep. This is extremely important because stopping the relentless pass rushers with a potent rushing attack is the only way we can optimize our game plan. TJ Watt and Joey Bosa are good enough that we will not abandon the run. Even in the event of a deficit we are going to remain active in feeding our backs. Cook has proven to make plays with enough volume so our game plan features him getting screens, inside zones, tosses, powers, and check down touches to give him chances to make plays. Jamaal Williams spells him with about 30% of snaps and Jaylen Samuels is the ultimate xfactor. We will give him 2-4 snaps in a wildcat to give a different look. Taysom Hill will play QB and has the option to take a deep target if we’re playing a zone based defense opposite Jalen Ramsey’s side. 

Defense

George Kittle is the number one target we think has to be accounted for on every play. His presence in the passing game is obviously the primary focus this week. We have the base formation featuring Eric Kendricks as the first line of defense. Tyrann Mathieu and Rodney McCloud share the responsibility of playing underneath in a cover 3 which is the base formation. The underrated aspect of Kittle’s game is his run blocking. Arik Armstead figures to get plenty of run at the edge position if Kittle plays to suffice for his ability to push Kamara and other running backs to the next level. We have some unique obvious passing down coverages especially if Kittle is lined up as a slot WR. Kenny Moore would play underneath with another Khari Willis playing on top as the 3rd safety. The best thing about this coverage is Moore is an incredible blitzer so we can move other guys to account for Kittle on those zone blitz reads. Moore is definitely one of our weapons on defense. His ability is valued for games like this.

Alvin Kamara is the second player we want to stop. In our first meeting, it was his running ability voters thought made the biggest difference. This time we are led by Fletcher Cox and a plethora of talent to keep Lancaster on their toes as to our intentions in the trenches. To start, we play Jerry Hughes and Kyle Van Noy together as they form a bookend of pass rush to get consistent pressure. When factoring Van Noy can stand up as a LB and blitz, we can play 3 man fronts. In this situation, Cox plays DT with Casey and Reed serving as the DE. This formation allows more DBs on the field to stop the pass while we have enough talent on the front to occupy blockers. Add in Van Noy’s prowess to blitz off ball and there is still enough attention on Kamara as Kendricks is on the field. The final chess match of Van Noy and Kenny Moore is we can confuse offenses and make it harder to figure out what exactly we seek accomplish. Denico Autry and Arik

Armstead can play as subs for the edge on those three man fronts but both guys man the edge positions when we lineup with four defensive ends. With KJ Wright and Eric Kendricks as the second line of defense we are hopeful their abilities will allow Kamara not gash us as runner or receiver where he’s a dangerous weapon that needs to be accounted for. Tyrann Mathieu will move to nickel back on occasion so he plays into the “scheme versatile guess who’s blitzing” gimmick we can use with success to potentially get game changing plays.

The weapons for this team are galore. It’s not often Odell Beckham and Mike Evans are not the targets we need to stop but that is the case today. Richard Sherman has basic responsibility. It will alternate between pressing on downs we don’t blitz and avoiding big plays off man when there are nickel pressures and rushes coming with plays off the line of scrimmage. He’s been a great player in this role and allows his strengths to shine. We might lineup in some obvious man cover situations forcing Sherman to cover Kittle, meaning we would apply safety help Mike Evans. Isaiah Oliver would shadow him and Kenny Moore on Odell Beckham. Mathieu moving to slot CB keeps him us in zone coverage but allows Mathieu the chance to intercept Rivers on a pass to Beckham or Miles Sanders out the back field. Kamara is the next weapon we think Mathieu may interact with as the slot CB. On those plays, Khari Willis takes his responsibility. Trae Waynes moves to the outside CB position when we play move Moore into the slot. 

 

Edited November 24, 2019 by SirA1

[Scoundrel]

If tyrann and Rodney share the responsibility of playing underneath in the cover 3 when he is inline who is playing over the top?

[Scoundrel]

And who is coming off the field when Willis comes in if Kittle is in the slot?

[MD4L]

1 minute ago, Counselor said:

If tyrann and Rodney share the responsibility of playing underneath in the cover 3 when he is inline who is playing over the top?

They alternate at that role.

1 minute ago, Counselor said:

And who is coming off the field when Willis comes in if Kittle is in the slot?

KJ Wright or Jerry Hughes.

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, MD4L said:

They alternate at that role.

KJ Wright or Jerry Hughes.

Thanks for the clarification 

[Jlash]

No Lane Johnson for Lancaster this week. 

[Jlash]

I'm not sure there has been a matchup with the amount of sheer offensive playmakers these two teams have. 

I like Lancaster deciding to keep it simple for Mayfield. I don't completely agree that all his issues are strictly coaching because he's definitely missed some throws, but I like the approach with him.

What I don't like is what essentially amounts to a cover 1 in that defense. I understand you have to account for Cook, and he's always featured for Cuba, but you better hope and pray that if someone shakes loose for Cuba that Eddie Jackson is on that side of the field. Things like that lead to big plays.

For Cuba,  I like the plan to attack the pass rushers of Lancaster with offensive line movement and forcing them to chase down run plays. 

I don't like them flat out avoiding going to Chark if Alexander is covering him though, doesn't make sense to me. 

 

Overall, with Lancaster having to go a little more conservative to aid Baker, and Watson being the playmaker he is against a cover 1 with excellent weapons I think Cuba will win this one in a shootout, 34-31.

[Xmad]

Cuba.

[Ragnarok]

I actually like Lancaster this week.  Cooks and Ebron slow down the Cuba O just enough.  

[Scoundrel]

Going Cuba here. I think they have the better all around team. It is a close game and Baker has been playing very well. I think it’s a 31-28 game. With Cuba scoring a last minute field goal for the win.