Packerraymond 2020 Mock Offseason V1

[Joe]

2 minutes ago, Fl0nkerton said:

 

 

 

Agholor's not even worth kicking the tires. He's a rich man's J'Mon Moore. I've documented this well. Cost means nothing here. He's a TC body and nothing more...

Edited December 27, 2019 by Joe

[Packerraymond]

2 hours ago, Joe said:

Obviously, you don't understand Agholor's stone hands issue so I won't address that because I like the rest of what you did with FA even though Armstead isn't leaving SF. Instead, I'll point out the massive reaches you have throughout this mock, even though I like trading down out of the first round given your logic. I'm just curious as to where you're getting your rankings; serious inquiry, not trying to dig at you here. 

This is the more realistic target if we were to get anyone off that SF DL.

You think San Fran is paying Buckner, Ford and Armstead on the same DL? Along with Bosa's #2 salary? Not a chance. Best case they 5th year Buckner and try to tag and trade Armstead.

I don't use "rankings" other than my own for the top rounds. Curious who the massive reaches are?

[cannondale]

I'm not an expert on contracts, but as guaranteed money becomes more commonplace, how will that affect someone like Bulaga ?  I'm not clear how guaranteed the guaranteed money is. You have to think his agent is gonna want some bigger money up front. If someone like Bulaga signs for 4/44 with 28 guaranteed, does he keep that 28 if he doesn't see the end of the deal ? I don't think there's any way his agent allows a year to year when there's an obvious money grab to be had.

Edited December 27, 2019 by cannondale

[James Lofton]

Provided they extend Kenny Clark, which I bet they will, he will likely get $16-17 million per year. That will eat up some cap space.

Edited December 27, 2019 by James Lofton

[AlexGreen#20]

6 hours ago, cannondale said:

I'm not an expert on contracts, but as guaranteed money becomes more commonplace, how will that affect someone like Bulaga ?  I'm not clear how guaranteed the guaranteed money is. You have to think his agent is gonna want some bigger money up front. If someone like Bulaga signs for 4/44 with 28 guaranteed, does he keep that 28 if he doesn't see the end of the deal ? I don't think there's any way his agent allows a year to year when there's an obvious money grab to be had.

Say he signs a 28 million dollar signing bonus.

Every year of his 4 year contract gets hit with 7 million dollars from a cap perspective, even though that cash hits his bank account the day after the league office approves the contract. It's done that way to help teams with the cap. If Rodgers' 57 million dollar signing bonus had hit our cap last year, we would have been screwed.

If you look at Bulaga's contract like as 4/44 with a 28 signing bonus it probably looks something like below from a cap perspective.

2020: 7 million in signing bonus. 1 million in salary. === 8 million

2021: 7 million in signing bonus. 3 million in salary.  === 10 million

2022: 7 million in signing bonus. 5 million in salary.  === 12 million

2023: 7 million in signing bonus. 7 million in salary.  === 14 million

If you look at it from Bulaga's POV as a cash flow perspective it looks like:

2020: 28 million in signing bonus. 1 million in salary.  === 29 million

2021: 3 million in salary.  === 3 million

2022: 5 million in salary.  === 5 million

2023: 7 million in salary.  === 7 million

 

 

[Lieker]

I’m a fan of what you did in FA. Not a huge fan of our 1st pick being TE. I feel like we have our move TE already in Sternberger. Really like Reagor the player and the value in taking him in the 2nd. Cleveland sounds intriguing. Weaver or a guy like Paddy Fischer seem like Packer type ILB in the Martinez mold. Nice work!

[Mazrimiv]

While I agree that Armstead may prove to be too expensive for SF to retain, I think his next contract will be closer to 4/60 than 4/50.

[Packerraymond]

35 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

While I agree that Armstead may prove to be too expensive for SF to retain, I think his next contract will be closer to 4/60 than 4/50.

Hard to say, over 50% of his sacks have come in a contract year. That's dangerous to be throwing that kind of money at, if it got that high, we could afford it and not bring in the receivers, but I think Gute would bow out. The other thing that will be interesting to watch is how many of the DL get franchised. The crop of FAs is quite good and that might bring down the overall value for them. Certainly wouldn't be surprised if Armstead signed for more.

[Mazrimiv]

As much as anything, I think 4/50 is a number that is still in the range of what SF would be prepared to offer Armstead.  It expect it will take a good deal more than that to force SF's hand.

[Packerraymond]

13 minutes ago, Mazrimiv said:

As much as anything, I think 4/50 is a number that is still in the range of what SF would be prepared to offer Armstead.  It expect it will take a good deal more than that to force SF's hand.

Buckner is by far the better DL of the two. He'll go over 15 AAV easily. Ford got 17, Bosa is around 8 AAV, that's already 40m a year in DL. They can't go over 50 in that position with a QB already paid. Armstead is as good as gone to me. LIS a tag and trade might happen, since they can push the Buckner extension off with a 5th year option. With their carryover this year they only have 17m in cap. 

[Mazrimiv]

For the sake of argument, lets say GB does not land Armstead.  How would you feel about Alabama DL R-Davis for GB in RD1?  In my very limited draft previewing, he's the first guy who stood out to me.

[Packerraymond]

Just now, Mazrimiv said:

For the sake of argument, lets say GB does not land Armstead.  How would you feel about Alabama DL R-Davis for GB in RD1?  In my very limited draft previewing, he's the first guy who stood out to me.

Would have to see how the FA money was spent if we don't get a DL there. 

Overall to me the thought is you look at FA class vs draft class and decide how to spend your money. DL class is mediocre at best and FA class is the strongest position in FA this year. It would be an easy choice. WR and TE are not strong FA classes, WR is the strongest position group in this class while TE is OK. Hence my position here to buy a DL and use the earliest pick on a TE. The TEs will be gone by the time we hit our 3rd, meaning buy one, draft one early or roll with Sternburger and Tonyan.

[Mazrimiv]

Once I saw your plan, my first thought was that I wouldn't hate 4 years of Armstead, Clark and R-Davis (RD1) along the DL. Take the WR in RD2, and roll with Tonyan and Sternberger at TE in 2020.

[hitnhope]

 How about Marvin Wilson instead of Davis?    he looks like a much better bet to me.

[Mazrimiv]

4 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

 How about Marvin Wilson instead of Davis?    he looks like a much better bet to me.

I won't pretend that I have any real draft-nicky take on the individual players.  I just wouldn't mind double dipping at DL if a player like Armstead was signed in FA.  The ILB problem goes away to a large extent when the DL is stacked.