Andrew Berry's Philosophy & the Sashi-DePo-Berry Era Revisited

[Mind Character]

On 12/30/2019 at 12:50 PM, Mind Character said:

John Dorsey deserves plenty of criticism regarding decisions he's responsible for.

However, the disdain for Dorsey has led a lot of people to distort the record of the Sashi/DePodesta/Berry Era.

There's so much revisionist history going on regarding the DePo, Sashi, and Andrew Berry Era it has my head spinning.

They are all brilliant and shepherded us through a well-organized historic 2-year tank in order for us to accumulate draft capital

Even taking into account that the goal was to tank and build through the draft, their overall personnel decisions an evaluations were not good at all.

There's a place for Paul DePodesta in our organization as a lead strategist who has more power in a coaching search and advising draft strategy/personnel decisions, but giving him final say over football decisions or evaluation would be a mistake.

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2016 NFL Draft:

1    15    Corey Coleman    WR    Baylor
2    32    Emmanuel Ogbah    DE    Oklahoma State
3    65    Carl Nassib    DE    Penn State
3    76    Shon Coleman    T    Auburn
3    93    Cody Kessler    QB    USC
4    99    Joe Schobert    OLB    Wisconsin
4    114    Ricardo Louis    WR    Auburn
4    129    Derrick Kindred    SAF    Texas Christian
4    138    Seth DeValve    WR    Princeton
5    154    Jordan Payton    WR    UCLA
5    168    Spencer Drango    G    Baylor
5    172    Rashard Higgins    WR    Colorado State
5    173    Trey Caldwell    DB    Louisiana-Monroe
7    250    Scooby Wright    LB    Arizona

2016 Coaching Search Evaluations:

1.) Sean McDermott reportedly evaluated as the number 1 candidate over Hue Jackson

2016 Free Agents:

1.) OL Alvin Bailey, 2.) LB Justin Tuggle, 3.) LB Demario Davis, 4.) S Rahim Moore, 5.) LB Tank Carder, 6.) QB Robert Griffin, 7.) Don Jones, 8.) Austin Paztor, 9.) Terrelle Pryor

2016 NFL QB Evaluations:

1.) Carson Wentz not a top-20 QB

2.) Jared Goff QB1

2017 NFL Draft:

1    Myles Garrett    DE    Texas A&M
1    25    Jabrill Peppers    SAF    Michigan
1    29    David Njoku    TE    Miami (Fla.)
2    52    DeShone Kizer    QB    Notre Dame
3    65    Larry Ogunjobi    DT    North Carolina-Charlotte
4    126    Howard Wilson    CB    Houston
5    160    Roderick Johnson    T    Florida State
6    185    Caleb Brantley    DT    Florida
7    224    Zane Gonzalez    K    Arizona State
7    252    Matt Dayes    RB    North Carolina State

2017 NFL Free Agents:

1.) Kevin Zeitler, 2.) JC Tretter, 3.) WR Kenny Britt, 4.) Tyvis Powell, 5.) Marcus Martin, 6.) Jason McCourty, 7.) Matt McCants, 8.) James Wright, 9.) Brett Maher

2017 QB Evaluations:

1.) Mitchell Trubisky ranked ahead of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes

2.) Trading from 12th to 25th + Receiving a future 1st round pick was desired instead of taking Deshaun Watson at 12.

2016+2017 Trades of Note:

1.) Got a 2nd round pick for taking on Brock Osweiler's contract

2.) Acquired Jamie Collins for a 3rd round pick

2018 Coaching Search Evaluations:

1.) Kevin Stefanski reportedly evaluated as the number 1 candidate over Freddie Kitchens

 

On 12/30/2019 at 3:47 PM, Mind Character said:

The football guys over analytics thing has always been ridiculous for sure.

Their coaching preferences were right indeed, and that's why I believe there's a vital place for DePodesta in this organization. But having say/power in coaching searches is much different than having say regarding personnel decisions. I'm not quite sure that I see those drafts or personnel decisions as all that favorable.

Dorsey has had his misses as well but Jabrill Peppers and David Njoku over all-pros like Ryan Ramcyk, Tre'Davious White, and TJ Watt in the 1st is different than missing on 4th-7th rounders.

 I'm also not sure Ogbah and Nassib are hits in the true sense of draf evaluation. If those 4 players (Peppers, Njoku, Ogbah, and Nassib) don't really hit their draft record is abysmal. It's not too hard to whiff on the Myles Garrett at 1.

 

With all signs pointing to Berry, he's a brilliant and talented personnel exec that has the skills to move the program forward, but again we can't just white-wash some of the draft and personnel decisions and act as if he, DePo, and Sashi were just these amazing talent evaluators and builders.

It's also not about just comparing things to John Dorsey, but instead independently evaluating their decisions on their own merit.

It's not just about hindsight bias because many of scouts and even many of us amateur at-home scouts had players who are now highly successful ranked well over the players we selected.

In 2016, Corey Coleman and Emmanuel Ogbah as 34DE over Chris Jones, Michael Thomas, Cody Whitehair, Justin Simmons, Derrick Henry, Kevin Byard, Kendall Fuller, Xavien Howard, Joe Thuney, etc.

In 2017, Peppers and Njoku over Deshaun Watson, Ryan Ramcyk, Tre'Davious White, TJ Watt, etc.

When Berry comes in we need him to elevate in the draft and free agency. Should be interesting to see what lessons he's learned and how he's grown as by all accounts he's a highly intelligent person that seeks to expand his knowledge and understanding.

I'd love for one of our hack media players to actually ask decent questions like, "how have you grown and changed as an evaluator and personnel exec since first being hired in Cleveland;and how will approach your draft and roster building philosophy now that you're back; what lessons did you learn from the 2016 and 2017 drafts?"

 

[NateDawg]

For as much as we did acquire some draft capital under the nerd glory days, our early draft picks were really bad. We hit on a couple mid round guys, and Myles Garrett was a no brainer, but other than that, it was kind of the status quo of what we are used to here in Cleveland. I am hoping that Andrew Barry did not have a lot to do with pulling the trigger on some of those picks.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

18 minutes ago, NateDawg said:

For as much as we did acquire some draft capital under the nerd glory days, our early draft picks were really bad. We hit on a couple mid round guys, and Myles Garrett was a no brainer, but other than that, it was kind of the status quo of what we are used to here in Cleveland. I am hoping that Andrew Barry did not have a lot to do with pulling the trigger on some of those picks.

To argue on behalf of the nerds... 😂 

Coleman was analytics wet dream both physically and with college production.  Elite speed/explosion and was also a “real football player” having been the most productive receiver in college and Biletnikoff winner. I’ve said it before, but I can live with a miss of the player has both elite physical ability as well as production.  Perhaps they should have researched the person a bit more, but maybe those red flags weren’t there?  He’s not the first guy to flop, especially at that position.

Myles is Myles.  For whatever reason people hate giving a GM credit for making the easy pick.  Instead of reaching for need in Trubisky, they stayed the course and took a stud.

Njoku was actually productive in ‘18 as a 22 yo TE.  The future is still bright for him.  There will still be TE’s drafted in April older than him.

Peppers is definitely not the star you hope for with a S in the first, but he’s a solid starter, especially when he’s playing a role that actually pairs with his talents.  He’s a guy who has played under 2 different coordinators and 2 different positions (through no fault of his own, he was wasted by Gregggg at FS his entire rookie season).  I wonder what he might look like had we been less of a sht show and actually just let him play FS like a normal human would.

Now as far a the QB’s, we’ll never really know, but reports have seemed to indicate Hue wasn’t on board the Watson (wanted Hooker supposedly), so who’s to blame there will forever be debatable.  That said, the fact that Berry stuck around even after Sashi under Dorsey for a year and is being interviewed for the top job now makes me think perhaps it wasn’t the nerds pushing the bad decisions re: QB’s.

[NateDawg]

5 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

To argue on behalf of the nerds... 😂 

Coleman was analytics wet dream both physically and with college production.  Elite speed/explosion and was also a “real football player” having been the most productive receiver in college and Biletnikoff winner. I’ve said it before, but I can live with a miss of the player has both elite physical ability as well as production.  Perhaps they should have researched the person a bit more, but maybe those red flags weren’t there?  He’s not the first guy to flop, especially at that position.

Myles is Myles.  For whatever reason people hate giving a GM credit for making the easy pick.  Instead of reaching for need in Trubisky, they stayed the course and took a stud.

Njoku was actually productive in ‘18 as a 22 yo TE.  The future is still bright for him.  There will still be TE’s drafted in April older than him.

Peppers is definitely not the star you hope for with a S in the first, but he’s a solid starter, especially when he’s playing a role that actually pairs with his talents.  He’s a guy who has played under 2 different coordinators and 2 different positions (through no fault of his own, he was wasted by Gregggg at FS his entire rookie season).  I wonder what he might look like had we been less of a sht show and actually just let him play FS like a normal human would.

Now as far a the QB’s, we’ll never really know, but reports have seemed to indicate Hue wasn’t on board the Watson (wanted Hooker supposedly), so who’s to blame there will forever be debatable.  That said, the fact that Berry stuck around even after Sashi under Dorsey for a year and is being interviewed for the top job now makes me think perhaps it wasn’t the nerds pushing the bad decisions re: QB’s.

I like the nerds, don’t get me wrong. I just hated how some of those early picks turned out lol. I didn’t hate a couple of those trade downs but when we went from having the #2 pick to getting Corey Coleman, that really soured me. I’m all for the trade downs actually. And with where we were, I think Sashi and Company made some really good strategic moves. Just some missed evaluations when it came to the card being turned in.

Edited January 14, 2020 by NateDawg

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, NateDawg said:

I like the nerds, don’t get me wrong. I just hated how some of those early picks turned out lol. I didn’t hate a couple of those trade downs but when we went from having the #2 pick to getting Corey Coleman, that really soured me. I’m all for the trade downs actually. And with where we were, I think Sasha and Company made some really good strategic moves. Just some missed a valuations when it came to the card being turned in.

That’s fair.  

[NateDawg]

It is interesting how a narrative changes so quickly though. John Dorsey was off season champ last year and couldn’t go wrong when it came to trades, acquisitions in general, and draft picks. He was a “football guy.” Tbh he didn’t fair any better then the previous regime. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by NateDawg

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

17 minutes ago, NateDawg said:

It is interesting how a narrative changes so quickly though. John Dorsey was off season champ last year and couldn’t go wrong when it came to trades, acquisitions in general, and draft picks. He was a “football guy.” Tbh he didn’t fair any better then the previous regime. 

Are you saying that it’s almost like most GM’s hit on roughly the same percent of picks?  Hmmm....  

https://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally 

 

[BleedTheClock]

19 minutes ago, NateDawg said:

It is interesting how a narrative changes so quickly though. John Dorsey was off season champ last year and couldn’t go wrong when it came to trades, acquisitions in general, and draft picks. He was a “football guy.” Tbh he didn’t fair any better then the previous regime. 

But he found us a franchise QB...I hope.

 

That's the major difference. Dorsey brought us stability at QB, which was the crux of this organization for so long.

[Rod Johnson]

"Sashi and Berry weren't bad talent evaluators! Good talent evaluators simply don't exist!" - nerds

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, Rod Johnson said:

"Sashi and Berry weren't bad talent evaluators! Good talent evaluators simply don't exist!" - nerds

“I’m mocking a concept that is statistically true.”

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

As is evidenced (in part) by Lord high commander of talent evaluation John Dorsey being canned twice in 4 years... 

“He really has an eye for talent.... except when he misses.... which every GM does”

Some mental gymnastics at work there...

[Rod Johnson]

29 minutes ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

“I’m mocking a concept that is statistically true.”

It's not statistically true.  Your argument is fallacious.  You don't have to hit on more than half your picks to be a "good" talent evaluator.  Same logic would dictate there are no good batters in baseball.

An argument in favor of getting more selections to increase your odds of hitting picks is not the same as statistical proof that some evaluators are more better than other evaluators.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

9 minutes ago, Rod Johnson said:

It's not statistically true.  Your argument is fallacious.  You don't have to hit on more than half your picks to be a "good" talent evaluator.  Same logic would dictate there are no good batters in baseball.

An argument in favor of getting more selections to increase your odds of hitting picks is not the same as statistical proof that some evaluators are more better than other evaluators.

The numbers are within 10%.  That’s one pick ever year or two.

[Rod Johnson]

2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

The numbers are within 10%.  That’s one pick ever year or two.

Citation needed.  Also counting just hits and misses or grabbing great players vs good ones, or contributors vs total busts?

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

Just now, Rod Johnson said:

Citation needed.  Also counting just hits and misses or grabbing great players vs good ones, or contributors vs total busts?

 

3 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

Are you saying that it’s almost like most GM’s hit on roughly the same percent of picks?  Hmmm....  

https://www.vox.com/2014/5/7/5683448/how-nfl-teams-ignore-basic-economics-and-draft-players-irrationally 

 

I’ve linked this article a dozen times at least.