The MMA Thread | Jones-Miocic officially set for UFC 309 at MSG in November

[Soggust]

11 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Topuria is delusional. Complains that OMalley hasnt fought anyone while his best win is Josh Emmett and then also says after Volk he wont fight Max-Yair-Ortega...so who the heck are you gonna fight?

His answer is legitimately Conor,.....validating your first sentence lol.

Edited February 6 by Soggust

[BullsandBroncos]

If Costa pulls out of this fight, cut him from the roster 

[BullsandBroncos]

4 hours ago, Soggust said:

His answer is legitimately Conor,.....validating your first sentence lol.

We all want crackhead Conor back. The only good Conor 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

7 hours ago, BullsandBroncos said:

We all want crackhead Conor back. The only good Conor 

Unfortunately the only way for him to make 145 again would be…crack

[JaguarCrazy2832]

7 hours ago, BullsandBroncos said:

If Costa pulls out of this fight, cut him from the roster 

Agreed 100% since his lost to Izzy 3.5 years ago he has pulled out of 4 fights and had that ridiculous weight issue when he fought Vettori

[Tank4Drake]

On 2/7/2024 at 3:24 AM, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Unfortunately the only way for him to make 145 again would be…crack

Hahaha this gave me a good laugh. Conor at 145 is the FW goat. Better than Max and Aldo. And imo, would have beat Volk too. 

His haters will say “he got a massive weight advantage” lol most fighters do this… Cornier at 205, Khabib at 155, the list is endless. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

2 hours ago, Tank4Drake said:

Hahaha this gave me a good laugh. Conor at 145 is the FW goat. Better than Max and Aldo. And imo, would have beat Volk too. 

His haters will say “he got a massive weight advantage” lol most fighters do this… Cornier at 205, Khabib at 155, the list is endless. 

Cant be the GOAT with 0 title defenses

[Tank4Drake]

55 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Cant be the GOAT with 0 title defenses

From a matchup basis, Conor at 145 beats any 145er. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

13 hours ago, Tank4Drake said:

From a matchup basis, Conor at 145 beats any 145er. 

Its fine to play the what if game but without seeing it i cant put him there

[JonStark]

On 2/10/2024 at 7:26 PM, Tank4Drake said:

From a matchup basis, Conor at 145 beats any 145er. 

While I might agree, it's still just speculation. As @JaguarCrazy2832 said, you can't be the GOAT with zero title defenses. Being the GOAT isn't just strictly based on talent and while his run at FW was great, there are other guys who should be over him based on what they accomplished. 

[wgbeethree]

This is gold. 

[Broncofan]

This is one heckuva card (and UFC299 as well).

 

Chalk

Rob Whitaker -230 - Paulo Costa is great at cultivating his image.   But he's not a 1-punch KO guy, he does it with chain volume, and when it comes to pace / technique / volume & cardio, Whitaker has him covered EVERYWHERE.    The loss to Dricus Duplessis has ppl thinking Rob might be washed - but with today's hindsight, a look at Dricus' work and improvements/progression certainly makes the L look very different.   I have Rob as my #1 confidence play, just chalk odds are why I'm not going heavy in single bets, but he, Lemos & Tafa & Merab are my core 4 (with Volk/Barlow & Tafa as well - Tafa added to my multi-card parley with Rob & Lemos +/- Volk & Neal). If I can get Whitaker / O1.5 as a closer to even SGP I’ll def go there. 

 

Merab Dvashvili - 200 - Merab's pace is just insane.   And Cejudo is clearly past his prime now - and firing his coach publicly like he did, terrible look.   I honestly think Merab should be -400.

 

Danny Barlow -200 - I didn’t add him to any parleys until this week, but the power / striking difference here is nuts.   Going Barlow by KO is probably better than the ML.   

Pick' Em (or Near that)

Alexander Volkanovski -105 (now -120) - Ilia Topuria can be a future champ, he's only 27.  But this is a massive, massive step up in competition.   Topuria hasn't even faced competition 1 level below Volk.   And while he went 5 rds as the hammer with 1-way traffic vs. Josh Emmett, going 25 when the opponent is in your face, that's a totally different kettle of fish.  I already went 2.1U when it was a pick 'em.   He's the #4 guy added to my 2nd multi-card parley with Whitaker/Lemos/Tafa.

 

Amanda Lemos -130 - I mentioned this in the Bets thread, but McKenzie Dern has the "hot girl" tax, and it doesn't hurt to be Mark Zuckerberg's crush.  Add in the US-born angle, I think that's why the line isn't -250 to -300 for Lemos.   Lemos has literally only given up 2 TD's (and 83+ percent TD defence) vs. all her opponents except the GOAT Weili Zhang.   Zhang's fight is why her TDD #'s are so mediocre.   Against everyone else it's really, really hard to get her down.  And Dern herself has 14 percent TD success - she's awful trying to get opponents down.   When they're down, she can get to work, but that's a tall order.    If it's on the feet, Lemos will massacre her.   Dern has a path, but it shouldn't be a pick 'em.    Along with Whitaker & Tafa, she formed the core of my multi-card parley for which this is the leg.

 

Dogs

The super-wrong line IMO is Justin Tafa +125.   Rogerio De Lima literally doesn't even have a 5 min gas tank.    Justin Tafa has never been taken down and on his back, which is De Lima's main path when he tires out.   It's HW, so there's always the one-shot risk, but IMO Tafa should be like -150.  I seriously question whether ppl are confusing Justin with his brother Junior, who definitely can be taken down (and gasses earlier than Justin).   I laid 4U already and have him as one of my 5-leg multi-card plays (with Lemos & Whitaker at the core)

As someone who took Hermanson last week because of the massive step-up in competition and lack of 3-round extension with Pyfer, I am going to back Geoff Neal +200 as an Ian Garry fraud-check.   Unlike Pyfer though, we know Garry can go 3 rounds and he does have a speed advantage on Neal, so it's more risky - but IMO this is really wide line, given that Garry doesn't really have power, and Neal is a far better fighter than anyone's he's faced so far.

Late to the game, but Brendson Ribeiro +125 I'll take for 3 reasons - one, I don't trust Road to UFC over Contender Seriee.   Two, I prefer the fight style / background (Brazil over Asia).   And three, while Ribeiro has gone into R2 only about 4x in the last 3 years, he's 4-2 in those, while Zhang hasn't seen R2 in over 5 years (and only 2x in his career), and both times he did, he lost.   

 

The Rest (1 jewel, 2 stinkers and 1 slaughter)

I lean Fluffy Hernandez over Roman Kopylov, but at -200 it's tough to take him, so that's a pass (but amazing match IMO).  Same assessment with Oban Elliott over Val Woodburn and Miranda Maverick over Andrea Lee, but both chalk odds are too wide to take, so more passes (but OMG why are those 2 fights on this great card lol).   Rina Nakamura is legit, but he's already at -1200, so there is literally no reason to take him, or even add him to parleys as he could always slip and blow his ACL (only path to losing lol).

 

Betting Card

It's aggressive, but I already have 4U on Tafa +155 & +125, so +140 combined.   I have 2U on Geoff Neal +190 (+180 & +200), 2.6U on Lemos -130 (and will likely add 1.4U on Lemos KO), and 2.1U on Volk -105 (now -120). 

 

For parleys, I use Whitaker / Dvashvili / Lemos / Volk / Tafa as my 5-piece foundation.   Wish I had put Dvash in my 3-card combo parleys, but didn't research it enough 2 cards ago lol.   Then I add Barlow & Fluffy, then Neal/Ribeiro, and Maverick / Lee & Elliott / Woodburn go to the end.    If Whitaker / Lemos / Tafa hit, it's an awesome day with my 1st 3-card combo hitting, and then add Volk for the 2nd, and Neal for the 3rd, and it's a banner day...might go streaking lol.

Should be a great card, 8 banger fights IMO.

Edited February 13 by Broncofan

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Glad to see you in here @Broncofan

Whittaker and an over is the play if you’re backing him. Costa is durable and i expect Whittaker Dec

Cejudo is -112 for “finish only” which seems crazy bc idk how Merab finishes him but Cejudo has legit power for the division 

im also baffled Lemos is practically even money v Dern

Edited February 13 by JaguarCrazy2832

[Tank4Drake]

6 hours ago, JonStark said:

While I might agree, it's still just speculation. As @JaguarCrazy2832 said, you can't be the GOAT with zero title defenses. Being the GOAT isn't just strictly based on talent and while his run at FW was great, there are other guys who should be over him based on what they accomplished. 

Once again, when I say goat, im talking about who beats who. Conor at 145 beats everyone. Obviously Holloway, Aldo, and Volk have accomplished more. 

[Soggust]

On 2/13/2024 at 10:41 AM, Broncofan said:

This is one heckuva card (and UFC299 as well).

 

Chalk

Rob Whitaker -230 - Paulo Costa is great at cultivating his image.   But he's not a 1-punch KO guy, he does it with chain volume, and when it comes to pace / technique / volume & cardio, Whitaker has him covered EVERYWHERE.    The loss to Dricus Duplessis has ppl thinking Rob might be washed - but with today's hindsight, a look at Dricus' work and improvements/progression certainly makes the L look very different.   I have Rob as my #1 confidence play, just chalk odds are why I'm not going heavy in single bets, but he, Lemos & Tafa & Merab are my core 4 (with Volk/Barlow & Tafa as well - Tafa added to my multi-card parley with Rob & Lemos +/- Volk & Neal). If I can get Whitaker / O1.5 as a closer to even SGP I’ll def go there. 

 

Merab Dvashvili - 200 - Merab's pace is just insane.   And Cejudo is clearly past his prime now - and firing his coach publicly like he did, terrible look.   I honestly think Merab should be -400.

 

Danny Barlow -200 - I didn’t add him to any parleys until this week, but the power / striking difference here is nuts.   Going Barlow by KO is probably better than the ML.   

Pick' Em (or Near that)

Alexander Volkanovski -105 (now -120) - Ilia Topuria can be a future champ, he's only 27.  But this is a massive, massive step up in competition.   Topuria hasn't even faced competition 1 level below Volk.   And while he went 5 rds as the hammer with 1-way traffic vs. Josh Emmett, going 25 when the opponent is in your face, that's a totally different kettle of fish.  I already went 2.1U when it was a pick 'em.   He's the #4 guy added to my 2nd multi-card parley with Whitaker/Lemos/Tafa.

 

Amanda Lemos -130 - I mentioned this in the Bets thread, but McKenzie Dern has the "hot girl" tax, and it doesn't hurt to be Mark Zuckerberg's crush.  Add in the US-born angle, I think that's why the line isn't -250 to -300 for Lemos.   Lemos has literally only given up 2 TD's (and 83+ percent TD defence) vs. all her opponents except the GOAT Weili Zhang.   Zhang's fight is why her TDD #'s are so mediocre.   Against everyone else it's really, really hard to get her down.  And Dern herself has 14 percent TD success - she's awful trying to get opponents down.   When they're down, she can get to work, but that's a tall order.    If it's on the feet, Lemos will massacre her.   Dern has a path, but it shouldn't be a pick 'em.    Along with Whitaker & Tafa, she formed the core of my multi-card parley for which this is the leg.

 

Dogs

The super-wrong line IMO is Justin Tafa +125.   Rogerio De Lima literally doesn't even have a 5 min gas tank.    Justin Tafa has never been taken down and on his back, which is De Lima's main path when he tires out.   It's HW, so there's always the one-shot risk, but IMO Tafa should be like -150.  I seriously question whether ppl are confusing Justin with his brother Junior, who definitely can be taken down (and gasses earlier than Justin).   I laid 4U already and have him as one of my 5-leg multi-card plays (with Lemos & Whitaker at the core)

As someone who took Hermanson last week because of the massive step-up in competition and lack of 3-round extension with Pyfer, I am going to back Geoff Neal +200 as an Ian Garry fraud-check.   Unlike Pyfer though, we know Garry can go 3 rounds and he does have a speed advantage on Neal, so it's more risky - but IMO this is really wide line, given that Garry doesn't really have power, and Neal is a far better fighter than anyone's he's faced so far.

Late to the game, but Brendson Ribeiro +125 I'll take for 3 reasons - one, I don't trust Road to UFC over Contender Seriee.   Two, I prefer the fight style / background (Brazil over Asia).   And three, while Ribeiro has gone into R2 only about 4x in the last 3 years, he's 4-2 in those, while Zhang hasn't seen R2 in over 5 years (and only 2x in his career), and both times he did, he lost.   

 

The Rest (1 jewel, 2 stinkers and 1 slaughter)

I lean Fluffy Hernandez over Roman Kopylov, but at -200 it's tough to take him, so that's a pass (but amazing match IMO).  Same assessment with Oban Elliott over Val Woodburn and Miranda Maverick over Andrea Lee, but both chalk odds are too wide to take, so more passes (but OMG why are those 2 fights on this great card lol).   Rina Nakamura is legit, but he's already at -1200, so there is literally no reason to take him, or even add him to parleys as he could always slip and blow his ACL (only path to losing lol).

 

Betting Card

It's aggressive, but I already have 4U on Tafa +155 & +125, so +140 combined.   I have 2U on Geoff Neal +190 (+180 & +200), 2.6U on Lemos -130 (and will likely add 1.4U on Lemos KO), and 2.1U on Volk -105 (now -120). 

 

For parleys, I use Whitaker / Dvashvili / Lemos / Volk / Tafa as my 5-piece foundation.   Wish I had put Dvash in my 3-card combo parleys, but didn't research it enough 2 cards ago lol.   Then I add Barlow & Fluffy, then Neal/Ribeiro, and Maverick / Lee & Elliott / Woodburn go to the end.    If Whitaker / Lemos / Tafa hit, it's an awesome day with my 1st 3-card combo hitting, and then add Volk for the 2nd, and Neal for the 3rd, and it's a banner day...might go streaking lol.

Should be a great card, 8 banger fights IMO.

Love the Tafa and Lemos plays.

I think Cejudo is a sneaky bad matchup for Merab by virtue of having capable wrestling and best in slot fight IQ. I get Merab's pace is a real problem, but Cejudo should have decent cardio being up a weight class (2) than he spent his career and I think he will have some kind of answer for it.

I think Neal is a rightful underdog, but at that value I can see why you like it. I just feel like Neal is a very slick striker and Garry is a very technical striker and technical always beats slick (thinking Holland vs Wonderboy vibes here). But I think Neal is more technical than Holland and Garry less than Wonderboy, so maybe a bit less on both sides.