The 2020 Free Agency Rumblings Thread

[AZBearsFan]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Pace has shown not ability to bargain hunt or "hit doubles" at TE.

I don’t think this is the case with Burton. Prior to his injury (of which he had no prior NFL history) he was a solid starting TE. I’d say that was a solid double from Pace’s involvement. The issue with Burton IMO appears to have been how his January injury was managed and the likelihood that that led to the expanded injury that basically wiped out all of 2019 for him. That is a failure on the non-Pace part of the staff in my opinion. The way the position was addressed last offseason, especially given the obvious importance of it to everything Nagy wants to do, really points to Pace probably getting bad info about Burton’s recovery, and he got burned and has largely taken the bullet for it. He very well could have been working on bad info from those people on whose opinion he has to be able to rely. Objectively it’s really the scenario that makes the most sense. 

The alternative is that he’s a complete boob. That’s clearly not the case. 

[WindyCity]

Why would over paying Hooper be a mistake? 

The cap is about to explode and people are in here pinching pennies at a position of critical need.

[soulman]

5 hours ago, dll2000 said:

If you want actual production in 2020 it is Hooper.  It might not be best long term decision for Bears, in fact it likely is not, but it could mean Pace's job if Bears play like 2019 Bears.

This is one issue I wish we'd get passed and stop imputing it into Pace's thinking.  The McCaskey's love Ryan Pace so even if Mitch ultimately fails and even if the QB and TE issues are not resolved and offense still needs reworking Pace isn't gonna lose his job. I believe he can afford to think longer term and that he will think longer term when that's what's in this teams best interest.

I think it's been made clear that what the Bears organization is looking to accomplish is the kind of year in year out stability and ability to compete at a high level in the NFCN we once operated under but have long since abdicated to Green Bay.  Winning championships begins with dominating your own division which we haven't done since the 1980s.  That should be Ryan Paces primary goal.

As of today he's operating under the belief that both Trubisky and Burton will rise from the ashes of their 2019 seasons and improve on even their 2018 performances.  He understands that he's at least somewhat stuck with both at least for now so Plan A should be to add competition talented enough to compete and even push both to the bench but not to initially blow it up by replacing them.

When we start talking about what moves like bringing in Carr and/or Hooper may cost we would necessarily be heading down that replacement path not down a path to supplement who we have as efficiently as possible.  Unless Pace and Cincy have come to an agreement on Dalton I don't that anything will happen at QB before FA begins and we see how the pieces move on the board.

TE may be far easier to speculate on since there are a few targets who might come in on short term deal and fit that supplemental looking to gain traction for the #1 spot and better long term deal much like we did with HHC-D last year.  And we have the draft with three picks in rounds 2-4 where a number of TE prospects are projected to be taken.  Pace has options other than spending big on Hooper.

[soulman]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think this is the case with Burton. Prior to his injury (of which he had no prior NFL history) he was a solid starting TE. I’d say that was a solid double from Pace’s involvement. The issue with Burton IMO appears to have been how his January injury was managed and the likelihood that that led to the expanded injury that basically wiped out all of 2019 for him. That is a failure on the non-Pace part of the staff in my opinion. The way the position was addressed last offseason, especially given the obvious importance of it to everything Nagy wants to do, really points to Pace probably getting bad info about Burton’s recovery, and he got burned and has largely taken the bullet for it. He very well could have been working on bad info from those people on whose opinion he has to be able to rely. Objectively it’s really the scenario that makes the most sense. 

The alternative is that he’s a complete boob. That’s clearly not the case. 

This is my viewpoint as well.

From a more unemotional distance being snake bit by injuries at TE seems to be primary cause of our longer term issues and that began with Zach Miller who could not stay healthy enough to realize his potential.  Burton was signed to fill a role that Miller had previously filled and his first season while not outstanding was certainly productive enough to look forward to even better in his second season.  How or why his hernia injury was mismanaged we don't know but it was and that ended up wrecking his second season.  If he can bounce back in 2020 we're back in business for two more years and if not it's gonna be next man up.  Possible Horsted or a 2020 draftee.

The "Y" TE is probably as big a concern if not bigger in that it's been pointed out just how much the run game suffered due to missed assignments by whoever was playing there.  So maybe along with having signed Harris we attack that spot in the draft with someone who can become that solid blocker and "post up" receiver Shaheen simply hasn't been.  But even with him how much has his development been impacted by his chronic injuries?  He'll get another shot at it this summer at the very least but I hold out less hope for him turning his game around than I do with Burton.  It's not like we don't have enough "suspects" to at least compete for it.

[dll2000]

12 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think this is the case with Burton. Prior to his injury (of which he had no prior NFL history) he was a solid starting TE. I’d say that was a solid double from Pace’s involvement. The issue with Burton IMO appears to have been how his January injury was managed and the likelihood that that led to the expanded injury that basically wiped out all of 2019 for him. That is a failure on the non-Pace part of the staff in my opinion. The way the position was addressed last offseason, especially given the obvious importance of it to everything Nagy wants to do, really points to Pace probably getting bad info about Burton’s recovery, and he got burned and has largely taken the bullet for it. He very well could have been working on bad info from those people on whose opinion he has to be able to rely. Objectively it’s really the scenario that makes the most sense. 

The alternative is that he’s a complete boob. That’s clearly not the case. 

They held him out of practice when he had slightest complaint and then longer even when he wanted to practice.  I don’t think Bears Staff are at fault.  

[dll2000]

12 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Why would over paying Hooper be a mistake? 

The cap is about to explode and people are in here pinching pennies at a position of critical need.

You are bringing me around.  That is a good point.  Hooper might look like a bargain in 2 - 3 years.  

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

They held him out of practice when he had slightest complaint and then longer even when he wanted to practice.  I don’t think Bears Staff are at fault.  

Slightest complaint is a fan perception. We don’t know that he wasn’t going to them in extreme pain. All teams hold important players out in TC for minor things. Any mismanagement (not saying there was but that there very arguably could have been) IMO was in the time period between January and TC.

My whole point is that unless we know Pace knew Burton’s injury problems last offseason were as bad as they were then I don’t think it’s appropriate to put Burton’s 2019 no-show on Pace. His inaction suggests he didn’t know. He has ups and downs in terms of hits and misses like any other GM but by and large he always addresses our known need positions in some way. He did nothing at TE last offseason. 

[dll2000]

41 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Slightest complaint is a fan perception. We don’t know that he wasn’t going to them in extreme pain. All teams hold important players out in TC for minor things. Any mismanagement (not saying there was but that there very arguably could have been) IMO was in the time period between January and TC.

My whole point is that unless we know Pace knew Burton’s injury problems last offseason were as bad as they were then I don’t think it’s appropriate to put Burton’s 2019 no-show on Pace. His inaction suggests he didn’t know. He has ups and downs in terms of hits and misses like any other GM but by and large he always addresses our known need positions in some way. He did nothing at TE last offseason. 

In multiple interviews with media he said he wanted to practice and was frustrated, but he understands team is being cautious and thinking long term.

If I recall he had surgery - a long time passed - he was clear to practice around TC.   He said he was 100%.  

He practiced for a bit felt some pain and then they pulled him again.  He wanted to come back during camp and they said no just wait, we want to make sure you are good for season.  We need you.

 

 

[AZBearsFan]

29 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

In multiple interviews with media he said he wanted to practice and was frustrated, but he understands team is being cautious and thinking long term.

If I recall he had surgery - a long time passed - he was clear to practice around TC.   He said he was 100%.  

He practiced for a bit felt some pain and then they pulled him again.  He wanted to come back during camp and they said no just wait, we want to make sure you are good for season.  We need you.

Ok so, to my larger point (which is about Pace as it pertains to Burton) - whether Burton was or wasn’t ACTUALLY healthy Pace had every reason to believe that the guy he signed the year before and who was good-not-great in 2018 was going to be fully available to the team in that same capacity for 2019 until it was far too late for him to make any significant move at the position. The failure by Pace at TE in my opinion was in the other TE position with Shaheen, not with the signing or handling of Burton. This offseason as it pertains to Burton is different though - they’ve already told us he’s a question mark going into TC. Last year the expectation was Burton at 100% and Burton’s own words were that he got there. 

[dll2000]

22 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Ok so, to my larger point (which is about Pace as it pertains to Burton) - whether Burton was or wasn’t ACTUALLY healthy Pace had every reason to believe that the guy he signed the year before and who was good-not-great in 2018 was going to be fully available to the team in that same capacity for 2019 until it was far too late for him to make any significant move at the position. The failure by Pace at TE in my opinion was in the other TE position with Shaheen, not with the signing or handling of Burton. This offseason as it pertains to Burton is different though - they’ve already told us he’s a question mark going into TC. Last year the expectation was Burton at 100% and Burton’s own words were that he got there. 

Oh I agree.  I thought for sure Pace was going to sign a Y TE in 2018 offseason and he never did.  That was perplexing because I thought I had a good profile on the man's MO.  

That was a huge mistake IMO and it didn't fit Pace's MO at all.   I thought it would be the Cinnci FA.  Forgetting his name.  ... Uzomah.  

He would have been perfect a fit again in my opinion. 

I thought he should have gone for Fells this year.   I think Pace weakness has been at QB and TE.   Strength is D aside from edge.   OL and WR he has been hit and miss.  

 

 

[dll2000]

Just now, dll2000 said:

Oh I agree.  I thought for sure Pace was going to sign a Y TE in 2018 offseason and he never did.  That was perplexing because I thought I had a good profile on the man's MO.  

That was a huge mistake IMO and it didn't fit Pace's MO at all.   I thought it would be the Cinnci FA.  Forgetting his name.  ... Uzomah.  

He would have been perfect a fit again in my opinion. 

I thought he should have gone for Fells this year.   I think Pace weakness has been at QB and TE.   Strength is D aside from edge.   OL and WR he has been hit and miss.  

 

 

@AZBearsFan

We talked about TE a lot in 2019 offseason.  We thought with certainty he would go FA in offseason 2019.  Then when he didn't we thought he would go TE in draft and he didn't go there either.  That was a head scratcher.   

Several people made point that it means he thinks he is good with Shaheen and Burton and okay with his back ups in a pinch.  I think obviously he was wrong about that and most of us felt that was a mistake long before season or camp started.

It played out in worse case scenario fashion.  

Who knows for sure,  but I believe if Pace signs Uzoma like many of us wanted and realizes (like he should have) in Summer Long can't play and Daniels is really struggling at center Bears don't have the awful 2019 offensively that they did.   That horrendous start - I mean they couldn't even get first downs - really had a compounding negative effect on total team in a lot of ways.  And I think contributed to injuries on defense.   

I can forgive leaving Daniels at center for a bit to see if he figures it out, but Long clearly couldn't play anymore in 2019.  It showed big time in camp and was obvious to me and everyone in stands.  And it was to Long too, he was literally beating himself up in frustration.  

I think 2019 was a Nagy/Pace decision making failure more so than a Mitch failure as it is being painted in social media and media and talk radio/podcasts.

I think Mitch was still bad not excusing him, but I think the failure was primarily because of decisions made prior to season starting.  

 

 

 

[dll2000]

This is why I distrust analytics.  To a point.  I get that RBs have less value and other larger issues they point out that a lot of people may ignore at their own peril.   Macro data can be valuable.  

But Data is garbage in and garbage out.   It all depends on quality of data you put into something.  If data going in is flawed the conclusions it produces are going to be flawed too.   I simply don't trust a lot of the data that goes in.  I think you can't avoid good old fashioned film study on your own of a player.    I think you should use data as a starting point and then verify.   

We have seen this play out over century countless times.  A scientific experiment comes out that fits someone's agenda and it becomes gospel in the collective mind.   Then years later someone repeats the experiment and gets completely different results.   Then it comes out that the numbers were flawed or worse fudged on purpose.    The correction doesn't get near the publicity.   Some facts are too good to check as they say.    

A lot of analytics guys were telling me Long can play and throwing all these numbers and graphs at me.  

My own eyes were telling me a very different story.  I don't know a lot of things, but I can watch an O lineman and know if he is playing well or not.  Long has been on decline for awhile. 

 

[soulman]

49 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

The failure by Pace at TE in my opinion was in the other TE position with Shaheen, not with the signing or handling of Burton.

Yup.  Maybe the biggest weakness we've seen in Pace so far has been his unwillingness to fold his hand early enough when his top picks have been disappointments.  White and Shaheen have been the two best examples of this by far.

Having a belief that a player may eventually recover and ascend is fine but not at the expense of failing to bring in someone above him while waiting for it to happen.  What was our reasoning for believing Sowell could handle a conversion from OT to TE last year?  Who was the fall back if that didn't work out?

One of the more frustrating things to me are the chinks Pace tends to leave in the armor both offensively and defensively.  For me it's less about his misses on draft picks than it is about the bases he tends to leave uncovered but should that be 100% on him or has the coaching staff also been to blame for being to optimistic about certain players?

[abstract_thought]

55 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

This is why I distrust analytics.  To a point.  I get that RBs have less value and other larger issues they point out that a lot of people may ignore at their own peril.   Macro data can be valuable.  

But Data is garbage in and garbage out.   It all depends on quality of data you put into something.  If data going in is flawed the conclusions it produces are going to be flawed too.   I simply don't trust a lot of the data that goes in.  I think you can't avoid good old fashioned film study on your own of a player.    I think you should use data as a starting point and then verify.   

We have seen this play out over century countless times.  A scientific experiment comes out that fits someone's agenda and it becomes gospel in the collective mind.   Then years later someone repeats the experiment and gets completely different results.   Then it comes out that the numbers were flawed or worse fudged on purpose.    The correction doesn't get near the publicity.   Some facts are too good to check as they say.    

A lot of analytics guys were telling me Long can play and throwing all these numbers and graphs at me.  

My own eyes were telling me a very different story.  I don't know a lot of things, but I can watch an O lineman and know if he is playing well or not.  Long has been on decline for awhile. 

 

I don't think it's really fair to point to individual cases. Analytics isn't foolproof and criticizing it for its mistakes is sort of a strawman.

What we often forget is that bias pervades any analysis we do, that's inevitable. But that bias is more systematic and is easier to account for. The issue with human judgment is our biases and decision-making can be wildly inconsistent.

People complain when analytics doesn't match up with their perception. I don't think that's the right approach. Those are the most interesting cases and they offer a glimpse into how as humans our judgment/valuation process may be flawed. And a good analyst will use those cases to continue to refine their own systems. The goal is not necessarily to be right all the time. It's to capture that innate, empirical knowledge you allude to and apply it more systematically. That requires the eye test and requires validation. No analyst succeeds while saying, "Don't check my work."

[G08]

On 3/10/2020 at 12:15 PM, dll2000 said:

What is difficult is doing the QB position at NFL game speed. It is one thing to know 2-3 options conceptually and intellectually.  Processing 3 options in a fluid situation in 2 seconds or less is hard, really hard.   It takes reps and experience in addition to conceptual knowledge.  Also takes reflexes and ability extend plays and all that.

Right, which is what I am trying to explain. There are multiple reads and sight adjustments within each play based on what a defense is showing, then you factor in the kid's relative inexperience and defenses mixing this up pre- and post- snap and you get this mess. It's much more different in a place like San Francisco, where the emphasis is on the run and then half-field reads on boots/waggles.