rickyt31 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 Just now, Dr.O said: CANT WE ALL JUST GET ALONG No, WTF. lol It's traditional now. People on here say we need to build through the draft during the season, then get mad when we don't sign everyone in the first 24hrs of FA. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GangGreen420 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 1 minute ago, rickyt31 said: No, WTF. lol It's traditional now. People on here say we need to build through the draft during the season, then get mad when we don't sign everyone in the first 24hrs of FA. Lol this is definitely true. The thread yesterday was pretty funny. I’ve decided I’m going to wait until September when they are actually losing the games to get mad. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickyt31 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, GangGreen420 said: Lol this is definitely true. The thread yesterday was pretty funny. I’ve decided I’m going to wait until September when they are actually losing the games to get mad. lol Yeah, the TV show I work on just shut down for the season. So my silver lining is to watch the two-day meltdown. Trades can still happen, 2 more waves of free agency, and in a great draft position. I'm not worried building long term wise. But I scratched this year off because I still don't believe in Gase. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GangGreen420 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, rickyt31 said: lol Yeah, the TV show I work on just shut down for the season. So my silver lining is to watch the two-day meltdown. Trades can still happen, 2 more waves of free agency, and in a great draft position. I'm not worried building long term wise. But I scratched this year off because I still don't believe in Gase. Same. I have almost no expectations for an Adam Gase lead team. Hope he can prove me wrong. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickyt31 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 1 minute ago, GangGreen420 said: Same. I have almost no expectations for an Adam Gase lead team. Hope he can prove me wrong. I would love for him to prove me wrong. it would make a great story and we won't have to wonder if we could beat an XFL team anymore. I just want JD to get the best players he can get that fits the identity he wants the team to have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetskid007 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Bobby816 said: https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round Appreciated. First, while I respect the data presented, lets first keep in mind that its tremendously outdated. The criteria is based on a pretty narrow sample (2004-2014) and doesn't truly reflect the changes we've seen over the past 10 years given how it's become a far more spread out, pass heavy game. Second, I didn't really like how they grouped together "OL" as one group, but the numbers point to it being the safest position in rounds 1-3 in their sample. I think that's accurate, but not for all lineman - it's much more popular to find successful Gs/Cs in rounds 2-3 than it is tackle. Tackle is very much a top 40 position group historically, and I'd be happy to pull that data to share. But in focusing on their article, here are some key takeaways: The first round has an 83% success rate. The second round is almost as good with 70%. You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round (drop off is only 9%). The third round has the second highest number of receivers drafted with 52 but only a 25% success rate. The fifth round actually has a higher success rate (16%) than the fourth round (12%). The sixth is at 9% and the seventh is 5%. Next, a few of their statistics. It's pretty much saying that WR is one of the riskiest positions to draft among any round, which I do think is accurate in most drafts. It's not a safe position by any means. The 3rd round success rate has gone up substantially over the past 5-10 years. It's hard to define what "success" is, but here is the list of 3rd round picks in the last 10 drafts and I'll let everyone debate who is a "success" vs. "failure". My count: 15-18 players turned out to be "successful" top 3 receivers, which is 36.67 percent - a substantial 10% increase over the data from that article. Diontae Johnson Steelers Toledo Jalen Hurd 49ers Baylor Terry McLaurin Redskins Ohio State Miles Boykin Ravens Notre Dame Michael Gallup Cowboys Colorado State Tre'Quan Smith Saints Central Florida Cooper Kupp Rams Eastern Washington Taywan Taylor Titans Western Kentucky ArDarius Stewart Jets Alabama Carlos Henderson Broncos Louisiana Tech Chris Godwin Buccaneers Penn State Kenny Golladay Lions Northern Illinois Chad Williams Cardinals Grambling State Amara Darboh Seahawks Michigan Braxton Miller Texans Ohio State Leonte Carroo Dolphins Rutgers Tyler Lockett Seahawks Kansas State Jaelen Strong Texans Arizona State Chris Conley Chiefs Georgia Sammie Coates Steelers Auburn Ty Montgomery Packers Stanford Josh Huff Eagles Oregon Donte Moncrief Colts Mississippi John Brown Cardinals Pittsburg State (KS) Terrance Williams Cowboys Baylor Keenan Allen Chargers California Marquise Goodwin Bills Texas Markus Wheaton Steelers Oregon State Stedman Bailey Rams West Virginia Devier Posey Texans Ohio State T.J. Graham Bills North Carolina State Mohamed Sanu Bengals Rutgers T.Y. Hilton Colts Florida International Austin Pettis Rams Boise State Leonard Hankerson Redskins Miami (FL) Vincent Brown Chargers San Diego State Jerrel Jernigan Giants Troy Damian Williams Titans USC Brandon LaFell Panthers Louisiana State Emmanuel Sanders Steelers Southern Methodist Jordan Shipley Bengals Texas Eric Decker Broncos Minnesota Andre Roberts Cardinals Citadel Armanti Edwards Panthers Appalachian State Taylor Price Patriots Ohio As far as the 4th round, there's definitely a drop off (as there is for every position). You have a lot of guys that haven't truly developed yet, but a few of these guys are promising (i.e. DaeSean Hamilton). Either way, it looks like a significant drop to somewhere around 10%. Hakeem Butler Cardinals Iowa State Gary Jennings Jr. Seahawks West Virginia Riley Ridley Bears Georgia Keke Coutee Texans Texas Tech Antonio Callaway Browns Florida DaeSean Hamilton Broncos Penn State Jaleel Scott Ravens New Mexico State J'Mon Moore Packers Missouri Dede Westbrook Jaguars Oklahoma Josh Reynolds Rams Texas A&M Mack Hollins Eagles North Carolina Josh Malone Bengals Tennessee Ryan Switzer Cowboys North Carolina Jehu Chesson Chiefs Michigan Chad Hansen Jets California Chris Moore Ravens Cincinnati Malcolm Mitchell Patriots Georgia Ricardo Louis Browns Auburn Pharoh Cooper Rams South Carolina Demarcus Robinson Chiefs Florida Jamison Crowder Redskins Duke Justin Hardy Falcons East Carolina Vince Mayle Browns Washington State DeAndre Smelter 49ers Georgia Tech Jalen Saunders Jets Oklahoma Bruce Ellington 49ers South Carolina Shaq Evans Jets UCLA Martavis Bryant Steelers Clemson Kevin Norwood Seahawks Alabama Ace Sanders Jaguars South Carolina Josh Boyce Patriots Texas Christian Chris Harper Seahawks Kansas State Quinton Patton 49ers Louisiana Tech Chris Givens Rams Wake Forest Travis Benjamin Browns Miami (FL) Joe Adams Panthers Arkansas Devon Wylie Chiefs Fresno State Jarius Wright Vikings Arkansas Keshawn Martin Texans Michigan State Nick Toon Saints Wisconsin Greg Childs Vikings Arkansas Kris Durham Seahawks Georgia Edmond Gates Dolphins Abilene Christian Greg Salas Rams Hawaii Cecil Shorts Jaguars Mount Union Tandon Doss Ravens Indiana Mardy Gilyard Rams Cincinnati Mike Williams Buccaneers Syracuse Marcus Easley Bills Connecticut Jacoby Ford Raiders Clemson The one thing I'll say about 4th round receivers and the aspect one needs to be emphasized: this class is unprecedentedly deep. You've read plenty of the most respected analysts who have wrote about how they have 25-30 receivers with top 3 round grades. To put that into context: 28 receivers get DRAFTED on average per season. So yes, while there is traditionally a drop off, that drop off will not occur this year. Chances are, you're getting a 2nd round rated receiver in the 3rd and a 3rd round rated receiver in the 4th. It's that deep. Which is why I'm a huge advocate of drafting 3: one in the 2nd, one in the 3rd/4th, and one in the 4th/5th. I can go deeper into this, and I will perform a fuller study when free agency is over, but the bottom line is that drafting receivers is risky no matter what round, but it should be less risky this year. Chances are, the Jets should come away with a good player in Round 2 if they go that route, and they should be in good shape if they double dip. Worst case scenario: one doesn't pan out and one does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 So if WR is a risky position to draft in mid rounds it’d be safe to assume that there’s a bigger risk with thinking that’s ok to surround Darnold with right? This all assuming we even use these picks on WR. We very well could go OL, CB, Edge in Round 2 keep in mind. It shouldn’t just be assumed we will draft a Wr there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doumeyer Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Bobby816 said: So if WR is a risky position to draft in mid rounds it’d be safe to assume that there’s a bigger risk with thinking that’s ok to surround Darnold with right? This all assuming we even use these picks on WR. We very well could go OL, CB, Edge in Round 2 keep in mind. It shouldn’t just be assumed we will draft a Wr there If Jerry Jeudy, is there at 11 when we pick, it would be a crime not to take him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, doumeyer said: If Jerry Jeudy, is there at 11 when we pick, it would be a crime not to take him. There pretty much no chance that happens now with us not upgrading the OL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetskid007 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 19 minutes ago, Bobby816 said: So if WR is a risky position to draft in mid rounds it’d be safe to assume that there’s a bigger risk with thinking that’s ok to surround Darnold with right? This all assuming we even use these picks on WR. We very well could go OL, CB, Edge in Round 2 keep in mind. It shouldn’t just be assumed we will draft a Wr there Yes in fact it is OK. Sam did fine with what he had this year. He's going through his natural progressions. What's more important to address the OL, take risks on WR in the 2-5th rounds, and if they don't pan out return to the market next year. Again, history shows that OL > WR. The passing game is going to run through Crowder/Herndon/Bell - regardless if we draft a WR in round 1 or not. Bringing back Robby would be a very prudent move if the money is right, but no need to sweat if they can't. Address the OL first. Take some shots at WR. If that doesn't bear fruit, you enter 2021 in a better position to invest in the position whether it be via trade, free agency, or in the first round of the draft. Take advantage of how deep the talent pool is this year. Waste of resources using a 1st round pick in the most top heavy T class in the past decade and the deepest WR class ever. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_E_T_$ Posted March 17, 2020 Author Share Posted March 17, 2020 20 hours ago, Bobby816 said: So either way we just wasted 10mill in cap on a bad player. 100% agreed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsFan15 Posted March 17, 2020 Share Posted March 17, 2020 6 hours ago, Bobby816 said: The thought process was we’d improve the OL and edge making it to where we can use our picks on WRs. Good WRs. Not mid round guys. I’ve given the example of the fall off of deep WR classes after the 1st couple rounds. Look at the Watkins, OBJ draft class after Rounds 1 and 2. What FA OL presents better upside than Wirfs, Willis, Bechton or Thomas? None. We were never drafting a WR at 11 - always going to be one of those guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doumeyer Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 (edited) It strange how we sign Fant, & the Seahawks sign Schell, each got about the same money for signing they both got 10 million. That is crazy for two guys who are second tier players. And it wasn't a trade. To me that was a waste of cap money Edited March 19, 2020 by doumeyer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetskid007 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 1 hour ago, doumeyer said: It strange how we sign Fant, & the Seahawks sign Schell, each got about the same money for signing they both got 10 million. That is crazy for two guys who are second tier players. And it wasn't a trade. To me that was a waste of cap money I'm trying to understand what you're getting at, but I'm assuming you're referencing finances. This is the NFL now. I remember when Ryan Fitzpatrick's one year, $12 million contract was considered a lot. Now, that deal would be $20 million. It's all part of the inflation. What's important to note is the Jets took a calculated risk; they're signing a guy to a 1 year, $9.25 million deal with two options attached. Shell's deal is probably similarly structured yet cheaper. The Jets got a guy that fits what they want to do, and Seattle got a guy who fits what they want to do. I think Fant will be good in NY, I think Shell will be good in SEA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetskid007 Posted March 19, 2020 Share Posted March 19, 2020 Love me some #BaldysBreakdowns Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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