2020 NFL Draft: Discussion, Reports, Rumors, and Studies

[Bobby816]

4 hours ago, NJC33 said:

To be fair, the whole point of the chart is to show that there are more "Tavon Austin's" at WR than OT. Is Ruggs a better prospect? Yes, but hindsight is 20/20. All of these guys were respectable prospects in their own right to have been taken in the first round. 

I get that. But it’s not accounting for actual names. As I mentioned it’s putting guys in the same boat that aren’t. There’s weaker classes than others and weaker prospects than others. As I mentioned it’s putting a guy like Tavon Austin in the same group as Julio Jones. Everyone knew Julio Jones was going to be great. That’s my point. I think whether some want WR or not... most of us agree that these top 3 WRs are pretty much slam dunks as pros.

[Bobby816]

26 minutes ago, Rich51 said:

I think the injury is why he has sort of become the forgotten OT. If he’s healthy I agree that he could be a quality starter.

Trey Adams is another guy that looked like a top LT before suffering an ACL injury in 2018. He played okay last year but in many cases it isn’t until the second year after an ACL injury that a player is back to normal

Yes. I think Niang also is suffering from the “Andrew Thomas” affect I’ll call it. Where he isn’t flashy so he’s not getting hype. But is actually a guy that can and should be there with the top guys based on what he does on the field. That’s why I don’t like the risky picks of a guy like Becton for us. Bc the pick is all about “hopefully” developing and molding a guys talent. Rather than seeing a guy already that is rather polished.

[KingOfNewYork]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

I get that. But it’s not accounting for actual names. As I mentioned it’s putting guys in the same boat that aren’t. There’s weaker classes than others and weaker prospects than others. As I mentioned it’s putting a guy like Tavon Austin in the same group as Julio Jones. Everyone knew Julio Jones was going to be great. That’s my point. I think whether some want WR or not... most of us agree that these top 3 WRs are pretty much slam dunks as pros.

I just think it’s saying you’re more likely to get a Tavon Austin than a Julio Jones in the first round at WR. Obviously there are outliers but you can’t bank on them. Essentially Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs will likely bust. Imagine we pick the bust. 

[Bobby816]

2 hours ago, KingOfTheDot said:

I just think it’s saying you’re more likely to get a Tavon Austin than a Julio Jones in the first round at WR. Obviously there are outliers but you can’t bank on them. Essentially Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs will likely bust. Imagine we pick the bust. 

My point is it’s a vague chart. It’s putting the 1st pick as the same as the 30th pick. It’s putting weak classes in with good classes. It’s putting can’t miss players with risk players, etc. 

 

The stats don’t lie in it. But for this class it’s different. For me for positions we need. There’s 6 can’t miss players at WR and OT. For me you can’t go wrong with either. These aren’t guys I’m just high on. These are guys that I think will be great players with pretty much zero risk. Not every draft class is like that.

[KingOfNewYork]

12 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

My point is it’s a vague chart. It’s putting the 1st pick as the same as the 30th pick. It’s putting weak classes in with good classes. It’s putting can’t miss players with risk players, etc. 

 

The stats don’t lie in it. But for this class it’s different. For me for positions we need. There’s 6 can’t miss players at WR and OT. For me you can’t go wrong with either. These aren’t guys I’m just high on. These are guys that I think will be great players with pretty much zero risk. Not every draft class is like that.

6? I thought there was 7? Who are you omitting.

And I get your point and there's definitely some junk data in there but overall even without that you can admit that you are often times more likely to hit on a first round OT than a first round WR. However, these 3 kids and maybe even a couple more seem different this year. I hope we take advantage.

[Bobby816]

1 minute ago, KingOfTheDot said:

6? I thought there was 7? Who are you omitting.

And I get your point and there's definitely some junk data in there but overall even without that you can admit that you are often times more likely to hit on a first round OT than a first round WR. However, these 3 kids and maybe even a couple more seem different this year. I hope we take advantage.

I don't like the risk of Becton. I think he needs too much coaching to draft him over any of the other 6. And for me there's a 99.9% chance 1 of those 6 will be there still at 11.

 

I do 100% admit the success rate is higher at OT. That doesn't mean don't take a WR though. As I said I see the big 3 WRs as sure things, which as I said the chart doesn't factor in at all. QB is the worst success rate on that chart. So teams shouldn't draft 1st Round QBs? Of course they should. I as well factor in need as long as the player is worth the draft spot. Post FA WR IMO is a bigger need for us than OT. And when I see Wills as the only OT I think as cant miss with the 3 WRs that leaves me leaning to WR more than OT at 11. But as I stated... if I had to bet... I do think we go OT at 11. And that certainly wont be a pick I'll dislike. Just wont be a pick I agree with.

[KingOfNewYork]

4 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

I don't like the risk of Becton. I think he needs too much coaching to draft him over any of the other 6. And for me there's a 99.9% chance 1 of those 6 will be there still at 11.

 

I do 100% admit the success rate is higher at OT. That doesn't mean don't take a WR though. As I said I see the big 3 WRs as sure things, which as I said the chart doesn't factor in at all. QB is the worst success rate on that chart. So teams shouldn't draft 1st Round QBs? Of course they should. I as well factor in need as long as the player is worth the draft spot. Post FA WR IMO is a bigger need for us than OT. And when I see Wills as the only OT I think as cant miss with the 3 WRs that leaves me leaning to WR more than OT at 11. But as I stated... if I had to bet... I do think we go OT at 11. And that certainly wont be a pick I'll dislike. Just wont be a pick I agree with.

You have more faith in Fant/Edoga than you do in say Crowder/Perriman?

[Bobby816]

Just now, KingOfTheDot said:

You have more faith in Fant/Edoga than you do in say Crowder/Perriman?

I have 100% confidence in Crowder that I'll state first. Perriman for me is a big risk. I think he's more unlikely than likely to play close to those last 6 games last season. He has a skill set I like (I liked him his draft year for us in Round 2 but he didn't make it there). I hope he is an answer for us at a WR spot trust me. But what you didn't mention is that we don't have a starting outside WR. As of now that spot is Smith or Doctson's. Which is even more risky than relying on Perriman. So you have to be OK with starting one of them there. If you do want to wait for a WR you have to realize that if that guy cant beat out Smith and Doctson than it wasn't that good of a pick potentially. That that WR drafted should be a starting outside WR for us.

 

For the OL I think its more than just what Fant and Edoga individually do. I think having a more stable interior of the line will make our OT play better. We are pretty much switching up our blocking scheme. WHICH YOU HAD A GREAT WRITE UP ABOUT by the way. Fant on paper and his skill set is great for our wide spread system. And so is Edoga. So I think they're both going to be better than what people have seen. Its utilizing their skill sets to the best. That was a clear vision for JD. I think it says a lot that Fant was his 1st guy signed in FA. That JD clearly had eyes for him. We've repeatedly heard how high the staff is on Edoga (I liked Edoga last year as our pick, mocked him to us in nearly every mock I did). We knew he was a development player and needed to add some strength and technique. Every day he should be getting better. Time will tell. But back to the interior of the line. I think adding GVR and McGovern helps tremendously. Both good starters that have been playing for several years to add some leadership to the line.

 

So as I said... the line for me isn't fixed. But did we really expect to have a 100% new OL this year? People constantly say you cant fix things in one offseason. Yet want to on the OL. When we have a GLARING need at WR and there's several guys worth that 11th pick.

[NJC33]

 

[BayRaider]

In my final mock in the mock section, have you guys doing pretty well:

11. OT Tristan Wirfs

48. EDGE Terrell Lewis

68. WR Laviska Shenault

79. IOL Robert Hunt

You are one of three teams I gave an A+ to, the other two being the Bengals and Broncos. 
 

Shenault falls to the 3rd because of injuries. Although I’m lower on him than most, with a Late 2nd Round grade. 

[dcat]

4 hours ago, KingOfTheDot said:

I just think it’s saying you’re more likely to get a Tavon Austin than a Julio Jones in the first round at WR. Obviously there are outliers but you can’t bank on them. Essentially Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs will likely bust. Imagine we pick the bust. 

No way.    I'd bet on that.  

[dcat]

1 hour ago, KingOfTheDot said:

You have more faith in Fant/Edoga than you do in say Crowder/Perriman?

Crowder yes.  Perriman No no no.  Look how many Jets fans have been duped by his last few games... the only good games of his terrible career.  Trust me, JD will not be shying away from any WR he likes in the draft just because he signed Perriman.  LOL.  That would be about as dumb as Rex Ryan saying anything in front of a microphone.

Edited April 9, 2020 by dcat

[dcat]

7 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

In my final mock in the mock section, have you guys doing pretty well:

11. OT Tristan Wirfs

48. EDGE Terrell Lewis

68. WR Laviska Shenault

79. IOL Robert Hunt

You are one of three teams I gave an A+ to, the other two being the Bengals and Broncos. 
 

Shenault falls to the 3rd because of injuries. Although I’m lower on him than most, with a Late 2nd Round grade. 

If JD chooses Lewis at 48, I'm going to lose my you know what.  This is horrible and shenault wont be at 68 anyway... that is ridiculous  You must have 48 and 68 juxtaposed here.

[dcat]

1 hour ago, Bobby816 said:

I have 100% confidence in Crowder that I'll state first. Perriman for me is a big risk. I think he's more unlikely than likely to play close to those last 6 games last season. He has a skill set I like (I liked him his draft year for us in Round 2 but he didn't make it there). I hope he is an answer for us at a WR spot trust me. But what you didn't mention is that we don't have a starting outside WR. As of now that spot is Smith or Doctson's. Which is even more risky than relying on Perriman. So you have to be OK with starting one of them there. If you do want to wait for a WR you have to realize that if that guy cant beat out Smith and Doctson than it wasn't that good of a pick potentially. That that WR drafted should be a starting outside WR for us.

 

For the OL I think its more than just what Fant and Edoga individually do. I think having a more stable interior of the line will make our OT play better. We are pretty much switching up our blocking scheme. WHICH YOU HAD A GREAT WRITE UP ABOUT by the way. Fant on paper and his skill set is great for our wide spread system. And so is Edoga. So I think they're both going to be better than what people have seen. Its utilizing their skill sets to the best. That was a clear vision for JD. I think it says a lot that Fant was his 1st guy signed in FA. That JD clearly had eyes for him. We've repeatedly heard how high the staff is on Edoga (I liked Edoga last year as our pick, mocked him to us in nearly every mock I did). We knew he was a development player and needed to add some strength and technique. Every day he should be getting better. Time will tell. But back to the interior of the line. I think adding GVR and McGovern helps tremendously. Both good starters that have been playing for several years to add some leadership to the line.

So as I said... the line for me isn't fixed. But did we really expect to have a 100% new OL this year? People constantly say you cant fix things in one offseason. Yet want to on the OL. When we have a GLARING need at WR and there's several guys worth that 11th pick.

Great post.   Not sure what scheme Seattle uses for the Oline.  They replaced Fant with Shell. That should raise eyebrows.  And they had one of the worst OLs in the NFL.  You have more trust in Fant than me.  Hope you are correct about Egoda too. What you wrote is encouraging.   I still want one of Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs.

[Bobby816]

5 minutes ago, dcat said:

Great post.   Not sure what scheme Seattle uses for the Oline.  They replaced Fant with Shell. That should raise eyebrows.  And they had one of the worst OLs in the NFL.  You have more trust in Fant than me.  Hope you are correct about Egoda too. What you wrote is encouraging.   I still want one of Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs.

Oh I have my questions about Fant and Edoga. But I question them less than I question guys like Vyncent Smith and Josh Doctson. And I think guys like Fant and Edoga are a fit for us and on the rise where as the WR position is  A LOT of question marks. Crowder is the ONLY guy we can rely on in that whole group. And we are a team that will speeding out teams with receivers out there.