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jetskid007

2020 NFL Draft: Discussion, Reports, Rumors, and Studies

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Can't have a free agency threat without a draft thread. 

I'm a big fan of trends and looking at how teams try to build rosters. I believe GMs/Execs absolutely favor certain rounds for certain positions, simply from a resource allocation aspect. With that being the case, I polled how the Baltimore Ravens draft selections from 2005-2016 and the Philadelphia Eagles selections from 2017-2019. I used to do the same thing with many of Maccagnan's drafts and it helped me narrow my focus and hit on a lot of picks. Things to note: 

  1. I didn't include the 2016 Chicago Bears draft because Douglas was the Director of College Scouting for them. Essentially he played a role in organizing the scouting department, creating their agenda, and signing off on the reports before submitted to the higher ups. While he must have had a voice in who the Bears would go on to select, his influence was not as great. 
  2. Joe constantly refers back to the Baltimore Ravens and Ozzie Newsome when discussing how he plans to approach roster building, so one would logically assume that he intends to build his roster in a similar way. Ozzie's final draft was 2018, but considering that Joe Douglas was pretty much calling the shots for the Eagles in 2017-2019, I left those years out. 
  3. Joe Douglas's role in the Eagles front office was significant. His fingerprints are all over that roster from trade relationships, free agent acquisitions, and draft selections. The aggressive nature and willingness to trade up to secure quality > quantity was more of a Howie Roseman trait, but I think he'll put more emphasis on quantity the way Ozzie did (which both Jeremiah and McShay have said as well). 

Again, I won't say this is end-all, be-all as context comes into play (if it's a strong draft in a certain position, the Ravens did a lot of "double-dipping" at a position, possibly outside of a round where they traditionally would select a player). None of this is gospel, but like anything else its a predictive tool.

Drafts broken down by round and position (2005-2019: 

 
                   First            Second                Third              Fourth                 Fifth                 Sixth           Seventh  
QB 1 0 0 0 2 3 0  
RB 0 2 1 6 1 2 2  
WR 2 2 1 5 2 3 3  
TE 0 2 2 1 3 0 0  
T 3 1 1 2 1 2 1  
G 1 1 3 0 1 1 0  
C 0 1 0 1 0 0 0  
DE 1 5 1 5 2 1 1  
DL 2 1 2 2 0 2 0  
LB 1 1 1 1 2 0 1  
CB 1 1 3 4 2 1 1  
S 1 0 2 0 2 1 1  

 

A few things that stood out: 

  • OL in round 1. This is obvious as it is the largest position group (5 starters), but their organizations still spent the most on tackles. The next most drafted positions are WR (which obviously is to note for us), and DL/DE. 
  • EDGE in round 2. Again, I don't want to scare people and suggest the Jets are going EDGE no matter what in round 2. I think the Jets will take advantage of this deep class of WRs and select one, but if the Jets acquire another 2nd round pick, don't be surprised if they use it on an EDGE rusher. 
  • Inconsistency in round 3, but favored towards OL and CB. FWIW, the 1 tackle they selected in round 3 was transitioned to a G in the NFL. 
  • RBs, WRs, DEs, and CBs in the 4th round. This was an overwhelming trend and I noticed that in many drafts where they had 2 4th rounds, they either went offense (pairing a RB and WR), or defense (DL with a CB). There was one draft I saw where they went RB/DE.  
  • Backup QBs in round 5-6. All the guys they drafted were when the team had an established QB. Could be something the Jets look into this year. 

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Albert Breer has heard the Giants will take Isaiah Simmons at #4 if he's there

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2 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

Albert Breer has heard the Giants will take Isaiah Simmons at #4 if he's there

That's perfect.   I really don't want them to take a tackle. 

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3 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

Albert Breer has heard the Giants will take Isaiah Simmons at #4 if he's there

That’s who I have them taking. First tackle off the board right now for me is AZ at 8 taking Wirfs.

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheDot said:

That’s who I have them taking. First tackle off the board right now for me is AZ at 8 taking Wirfs.

I hope they take Wirfs but I have s feeling Becton is tailor made for them.   

So Wirfs at 8, Becton or Wills at 10 we get the one left over.   Im super happy with either of those 2.

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 Blackthew Berry has hit the nail on the head, however, I will say the Jets would love size/strength guys (think Becton) as that’s just gravy. But prerequisite: athleticis and foot speed. 

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Wirfs and Becton you’d think are who we’d have 1 and 2. Question is is if we don’t think Thomas or Wills athletic enough. What do we do

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26 minutes ago, Bobby816 said:

Wirfs and Becton you’d think are who we’d have 1 and 2. Question is is if we don’t think Thomas or Wills athletic enough. What do we do

Wills has no athleticism issues.  Becton is athletic for his size, but is not the athlete Wills is overall

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3 minutes ago, Abe56 said:

Wills has no athleticism issues.  Becton is athletic for his size, but is not the athlete Wills is overall

Agree .... Wirfs and Willis would be their targets that fit the profile we have seen so far.  Wonder if either will be there at 11?  If not, would we trade back or take a top WR?  Interesting choices JD will have ...

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If JD is looking for speed, Cleveland, at 6’6”, 310 ran a 4.93 forty,  4.46 shuttle,7.26 3 cone. He might be an option, ideally in a trade down situation, if our top choices are gone. Getting another day two pick would give us the opportunity to grab an edge, OG and 2 WRs in rounds 2 and 3

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Not gonna lie, I would hate to pass on a premium WR for a leftover OT. I hope our board doesn’t value all 4 OTs above better talent at other positions just because it’s a tackle. The tackle left at 11 still won’t put us in the top 10 OLine range. I’m fine with signing a Peters or bringing Beachum back and drafting a tackle in round 2. If it don’t work out, it’s next draft.

JD said at the presser that we need playmakers. We gotta cater to that this draft. Need a WR1 regardless of Robby & we need Edge rushers. We’re not going to hit on every pick.

If we go WR-OT-EDGE-CB, the rate that we hit on all 4 is low. 

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11 hours ago, Bobby816 said:

Wirfs and Becton you’d think are who we’d have 1 and 2. Question is is if we don’t think Thomas or Wills athletic enough. What do we do

Wills is very athletic. 

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We should probably get a list of guys throughout the draft that unquestionably fit our system. Those are going to be the guys we target.

I’m thinking in no particular order:

OT: Cleveland, Whirfs, Jones, Jackson, Peart, Wills

iOL: Nick Harris, Hennessy, Jake Hanson, Muti

Our Mecole Hardman: Ruggs, Reagor

 

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2 hours ago, jetskid007 said:

Wills is very athletic. 

Never said he wasn’t. Just Becton and Wirfs are more athletic.

 

You still high on Jackson?!?!

I see he’s slipping in mocks. Given they’re just mocks. But some are even having him available in Round 2 now. Personally I’d rather Jones in that tier. I still see one of the 4 OTs there at 11. Thomas not having elite athleticism might not be high for us (I think he’s very good FYI, I think he’s one of the safer picks in the whole draft).

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41 minutes ago, SDotNova said:

We should probably get a list of guys throughout the draft that unquestionably fit our system. Those are going to be the guys we target.

I’m thinking in no particular order:

OT: Cleveland, Whirfs, Jones, Jackson, Peart, Wills

iOL: Nick Harris, Hennessy, Jake Hanson, Muti

Our Mecole Hardman: Ruggs, Reagor

 

There’s lots of WRs that fit what Gase likes in this draft. The issue becomes they’re all Round 1 and 2 guys. You start getting to that 3rd round range and it becomes more big bodied guys who rely on size and strength to win a lot. Which is a trait Gase doesn’t love.

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