mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, SlevinKelevra said: LMAO, so the usa, which according to you is in "tier 2" , yet has "orders of magnitude" under-reporting of cases, which would mean there are at least 56 Million cases in the USA. 100% The more cases we have the better, because it means we are closer to herd immunity and that the CFR is lower If you told me today we had 350m cases in the US I'd tell you the crisis was over... and it would be 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, mission27 said: Saying the CFR is significantly below the 3% WHO estimate is not propaganda, its the consensus view of the epidemiological community Its very reasonable to say if this disease is significantly less deadly than we thought and much more widespread then we may not have needed quite as harsh a public health response Where dtait and I may differ is I don't think public health experts ever thought the CFR was truly 3%, they've said all along its likely much much lower, so I dont think finding out the CFR is 1/10th of that number would change their opinion lol whta are you talking about - he never even talked about CFR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Anyway, I dont think its 56 million cases. My guess is closer to 15 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: lol whta are you talking about - he never even talked about CFR Again, I think he's talking about death rate too, not just absolute number of deaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: Again, I think he's talking about death rate too, not just absolute number of deaths he can talk for himself he's a big boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Mega Ron said: Were they also complaining of lots of people dying from it? Somewhere between 995 and 999+ out of 1000 people who get this survive Its very possible there were 10s of thousands of cases of this in California over the winter leading to a handful of deaths, mostly or all in older folks, that got pinned on seasonal flu or something else In fact I'd be shocked if that wasn't the case tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, mistakey said: he can talk for himself he's a big boy I'm not worried about his talking abilities I'm worried about your listening abilities, tbhwy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 51 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Reading this thread feels like watching Game of Thrones except instead of trying to kill the White Walkers we're haggling over whether there is 10,320 or 10,319 because we aren't sure whether to count white walker bears as 2 or 1 person. Yes, thank you. It's just irrelevant. Whether a person dies directly because of COVID, or a pre-existing condition got him because he also happened to contract COVID, is completely irrelevant. The dude still died. And either way, the overall number is still huge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: Anyway, I dont think its 56 million cases. My guess is closer to 15 million. that isn't "orders of magnitude" log10(~30) is 1.48 To be "orderS of magnitude different" would need the value to be > 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
theJ Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, mission27 said: Again, I think he's talking about death rate too, not just absolute number of deaths He's saying that the deaths attributed to COVID are grossly overstated. That people are dying due to other causes and being classified as COVID deaths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, SlevinKelevra said: that isn't "orders of magnitude" log10(~30) is 1.48 To be "orderS of magnitude different" would need the value to be > 2 I was using it as shorthand, close enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, mission27 said: 100% The more cases we have the better, because it means we are closer to herd immunity and that the CFR is lower If you told me today we had 350m cases in the US I'd tell you the crisis was over... and it would be If I told you we had 350M cases, I'd ask you to euthanize me since that's literally impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: I was using it as shorthand, close enough but just a few pages ago you told me your "model" has been dead accurate. I guess I see what passes for accuracy. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, mission27 said: I'm not worried about his talking abilities I'm worried about your listening abilities, tbhwy no need to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SlevinKelevra said: but just a few pages ago you told me your "model" has been dead accurate. I guess I see what passes for accuracy. Thanks. I anxiously await the results of your model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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