mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: link? only saw the NE states are starting their own gov task force and trumps taskforce will include the regulars including his own family, ross and mnuchin Originally reported by Daily Mail. May not be accurate because I cant find another source Realistically, that is what should happen. Get governors from the big states on the task force and maybe De Blassio, Lightfoot, and Garcetti. Needs to be coordinated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, mission27 said: Go ahead and model it tbh this is certainly *not* accurate, nor meant to be. but just to point out that with something like 2 or 3 days or so of dedicated effort, it would not be *hard* to do...exactly what I outlined above. This took about 5 minutes to code in Matlab. Unfortunately, I've got better things to do than re-invent the wheel on something that someone way more qualified than I am is already most likely doing. solution of 1-D spatially diffuse advective delay PDE with simple SIR kinetic mechanism, arbitrarily made-up parameters to force large infection rate so I don't choke my CPUs solving a tiny time step while I multitask, no "social-distancing" effect, homogeneous population distribution in space, and 3 nodes with bidirectional flows. Neumann BC's of 0, and 3 randomly located initial seed cities to source the infection. Initial population 10 Billion for giggles. Wave-like behavior detected. This stuff isn't hard if you've ever taken differential equations. je suis choqué . Edited April 13, 2020 by SlevinKelevra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, SlevinKelevra said: this is certainly *not* accurate, nor meant to be. but just to point out that with something like a week or so of dedicated effort, it would not be *hard* to do...exactly what I outlined above. This took about 5 minutes to code in Matlab. Unfortunately, I've got better things to do than re-invent the wheel on something that someone way more qualified than I am is already most likely doing. solution of 1-D spatially diffuse advective delay PDE with simple SIR kinetic mechanism, arbitrarily made-up parameters to force large infection rate so I don't choke my CPUs solving a tiny time step while I multitask, no "social-distancing" effect, homogeneous population distribution in space, and 3 nodes with bidirectional flows. Neumann BC's of 0, and 3 randomly located initial seed cities to source the infection. Initial population 10 Billion for giggles. Wave-like behavior detected. This stuff isn't hard if you've ever taken differential equations. je suis choqué . Tbh none of those assumptions make any sense so I'm not sure how useful this is, but I like the colors 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, mission27 said: Originally reported by Daily Mail. May not be accurate because I cant find another source Realistically, that is what should happen. Get governors from the big states on the task force and maybe De Blassio, Lightfoot, and Garcetti. Needs to be coordinated get diblasio out of here worthless bans gyms same day as he goes to the gym. what a buffoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, dtait93 said: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/13/deaths-from-heart-attacks-have-surged-in-new-york-city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, mission27 said: WHO now saying they believe COVID-19 is "ten times deadlier" than the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic Assuming by "ten times deadlier" they are referring to CFR, the 2009 pandemic had a CFR somewhere between .02% and .04% So they are saying COVID-19 CFR is likely between .2% and .4% What did MoL tell you folks? they also said not to wear masks, said china did a good job, and extremely late to label it a pandemic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: get diblasio out of here worthless bans gyms same day as he goes to the gym. what a buffoon. 100% agree he's a world class moron but its going to be hard to not include him in coordination efforts when he mayor of our largest city + the epicenter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naptownskinsfan Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 hours ago, mission27 said: Lol buddy the model doesn't run in Excel, Excel is just the front end for purposes of sharing within the epidemiological community and various buddies on Wall Street, these people are sometimes not the most tech savy My issue with sharing methods has nothing to do with IP it has more to do with not wanting to get into debates with folks on a football forum about how the model is broken because we didn't account for xyz I find the conditional formatting very helpful personally The rest of this is a bad take tbhwy, this isn't meant to be forward looking its an index and running a billion monte carlos isnt gonna help you when we're throwing in arbitrary adjustments for the smugness of various countries Again tho I look forward to seeing the results of your model Exactly. I like sausage. Doesn't mean I want to see how it's made. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: they also said not to wear masks, said china did a good job, and extremely late to label it a pandemic They were also the only ones estimating CFR at 3% when everyone else said it was much lower So the final domino has fallen. MoL was right all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: Tbh none of those assumptions make any sense so I'm not sure how useful this is, but I like the colors what part of "this is not meant to be accurate" went over your head? it was done to illustrate that it is not some life-breaking challenge if one wants to do it, has any sort of higher-education in math and science. but yeh, keep playing with "indices", excel, and lacking any predictive power but claiming you have a "model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Slim Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, mistakey said: get diblasio out of here worthless bans gyms same day as he goes to the gym. what a buffoon. on the other hand he’s like two metres tall and italian-american so you need a man with such a powerful energy on your side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, mission27 said: They were also the only ones estimating CFR at 3% when everyone else said it was much lower So the final domino has fallen. MoL was right all along ok bud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, naptownskinsfan said: Exactly. I like sausage. Doesn't mean I want to see how it's made. good, buy some sausage without an ingredients list . I hear that Uncles Arsenic's Farms is starting up just down the street from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, naptownskinsfan said: Exactly. I like sausage. Doesn't mean I want to see how it's made. good science is repeatable and can hold up under scrutiny. dont care if u dont want to share your own models that u use for IP reasons but if you want to say youre doing a service, you should share your methodology. its obvious people in this thread look up to these numbers, which is sad in its own right. but alas the smug ones have won the PR battle in this thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, SlevinKelevra said: what part of "this is not meant to be accurate" went over your head? it was done to illustrate that it is not some life-breaking challenge if one wants to do it, has any sort of higher-education in math and science. but yeh, keep playing with "indices", excel, and lacking any predictive power but claiming you have a "model" yes, a predictive model that exists in your head is based on unrealistic assumptions and that you are incapable of describing in terms that would be useful for laymen are you an academic by any chance? I will stick to my models that people love and that are accurate and easy for the average Joe of FF to understand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts