2018 College Prospect Thread

[Scoundrel]

There are a lot of good interior oline prospects in this draft so I could understand passing on Nelson. But Nelson is an absolute stud. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Having a free agent stop gap qb does nothing. It doesn't help win a superbowl it just puts your team in purgatory what's it gonna do help you make the playoffs and go 1 and done at best?

I just don't get the point of a stopgap. If there isn't a franchise level qb at our pick that we are sold on we have to try to trade down and get a future first. And have our team suck to have ammo to get one in future years. 

All these stop gaps are is inflation to our record.  Heck if we improve our oline enough I wouldn't mind drafting a qb in the top 3 rounds the next 2 years.

All a stop gap is is 10 to 15 mill against our annual cap for 3 to 4 more wins max.

Wasting a Rd 1 pick sets a franchise back 2 years minimum, usually 3+ years.   Lynch is exhibit A, assuming he's not the answer.    Are  you suggesting we have to get a franchise QB this year, even if we whiff on Darnold/Rosen?   Because if we miss on Darnold/Rosen, the history is not pretty when teams go looking Round 1.   Let's revisit...

2007
1: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders 
22: Brady Quinn, Browns 

2008
3: Matt Ryan, Falcons 
18: Joe Flacco, Ravens 

2009
1: Matthew Stafford, Lions 
5: Mark Sanchez, Jets 
17: Josh Freeman, Buccaneers 

2010
1: Sam Bradford, Rams 
25: Tim Tebow, Broncos 

2011
1: Cam Newton, Panthers 
8: Jake Locker, Titans 
10: Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars 
12: Christian Ponder, Vikings 

2012
1: Andrew Luck, Colts 
2: Robert Griffin III, Redskins 
8: Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins 
22: Brandon Weeden, Browns 

2013
16: EJ Manuel, Bills 

2014
3: Blake Bortles, Jaguars 
22: Johnny Manziel, Browns 
32: Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings 

2015
1: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers 
2: Marcus Mariota, Titans 

2016
1: Jared Goff, Rams 
2: Carson Wentz, Eagles 
26: Paxton Lynch, Broncos

 

Now, we should recognize Deshaun Watson in the teens this past year helps the trend.  But basically, if you reach for a non-elite QB in the 1st....your franchise is sunk.   You keep being against a stopgap for next year - no one wants that as plan A.     Plan A is getting a true franchise QB...right now, the only 2 that most people (myself included) feel good about are Darnold/Rosen.   If we get them, great.   But as we covered, plan A is no lock - we are not getting better than the 3/4 pick, and with each win, we drop further back - and NYG/BUF/CLE all have us sorely outgunned in draft pick capital (and ARI/NYJ will be right there with us).  Free-agency wise, there is no franchise QB we can bid for.  We're outgunned to a greater extent.  
 

But Plan B has to be there.   If we don't get Plan A - then get a stopgap for 1 year and get a developmental QB in later rounds - this also allows you to move forward without investing resources that set us back another 2-3 years if we miss.  You keep questioning stopgap QB's - but we are way, way, better off not committing huge resources to a QB that isn't worth that commitment if we can't get that true franchise QB.   10M for 3-4 more W's would be an awesome result - but again, it only matters if we address the other areas on the team, because ultimately  we don't get back into contention unless we fix those areas too - a good QB covers up only so much.  We're way beyond the level that a good QB makes enough of a difference.  

 

Everyone wants the franchise QB.  The problem is we can't bank on them being there for us when we draft - and we have no chance in FA.  So there has to be a plan if we don't.   That's not the preference - it's just reality.

[AKRNA]

38 minutes ago, Counselor said:

There are a lot of good interior oline prospects in this draft so I could understand passing on Nelson. But Nelson is an absolute stud. 

So, give me a few names. You know I'm always slow on picking out college talent. I just don't watch the game anymore.

As far as the Scherff/DeCastro/Nelson comparisons in other posts. Nelson is quicker and nastier than either. He also outweighs them by 15-20 lbs. I loved Scherff coming out, somewhat lukewarm on DeCastro (seemed to have a problem staying on his feet).

Brought in my secret weapon for OL evaluation. Sent a couple of links to my dad, turns 96 on the 27th. He watched about 80 plays. Had very few criticisms on Nelson, just technical and coaching issues. He figured he was worthy of a mid first round pick  but was stunned when I told him how large he was. He thought he was watching a 305-310 lb OG. Not a 330 lb beast.

That's the difference guys. There just aren't people his size that move like that. There really never have been. It makes it hard for comparisons. Also, take a look at broncos67 post. Never have I seen him endorse an O Lineman that highly. He's great at skill position evaluation but rarely moves into the trenches. To me, his evaluation of Nelson says it all.

 

 

[Scoundrel]

13 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

So, give me a few names. You know I'm always slow on picking out college talent. I just don't watch the game anymore.

As far as the Scherff/DeCastro/Nelson comparisons in other posts. Nelson is quicker and nastier than either. He also outweighs them by 15-20 lbs. I loved Scherff coming out, somewhat lukewarm on DeCastro (seemed to have a problem staying on his feet).

Brought in my secret weapon for OL evaluation. Sent a couple of links to my dad, turns 96 on the 27th. He watched about 80 plays. Had very few criticisms on Nelson, just technical and coaching issues. He figured he was worthy of a mid first round pick  but was stunned when I told him how large he was. He thought he was watching a 305-310 lb OG. Not a 330 lb beast.

That's the difference guys. There just aren't people his size that move like that. There really never have been. It makes it hard for comparisons. Also, take a look at broncos67 post. Never have I seen him endorse an O Lineman that highly. He's great at skill position evaluation but rarely moves into the trenches. To me, his evaluation of Nelson says it all.

 

 

Frank Ragnow, Braden Smith, Mason Cole, Billy Price, Will Hernandez to name a few. None of them are on Nelson's level but if we don't get Nelson they would be good gets in the 2nd-3rd. Watch some film on them AK and let me know what you think.

[AKRNA]

3 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Frank Ragnow, Braden Smith, Mason Cole, Billy Price, Will Hernandez to name a few. None of them are on Nelson's level but if we don't get Nelson they would be good gets in the 2nd-3rd.

Thanks, I'll take a look.

[Broncofan]

28 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Frank Ragnow, Braden Smith, Mason Cole, Billy Price, Will Hernandez to name a few. None of them are on Nelson's level but if we don't get Nelson they would be good gets in the 2nd-3rd.

We’re so talent poor doubling down on OL if they are truly overall BPA should not be dismissed.   We could use depth everywhere except S long term and that’s how we should be viewing the draft (preaching to choir I know but meant more for general discussion).  Plus things change so quickly.     A counter argument to taking ILB Foster was we had Marshall already and Davis was ok.   6 months later we might need not 1 but 2 upgrades if Marshall can’t get past his injuries and return to his old form (2017 isn’t even close to his 2015 or even 2016 form).   At his age/mileage we should be happy Leary is playing really well but banking on it long term should not be our assumption.  

If we get Darnold/Rosen great.  If we get Nelson I’m totally fine he’s the 4th highest overall guy awesome.  That shouldn’t prevent us from going OL again if they are overall BPA later on. 

 

[AKRNA]

1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

We’re so talent poor doubling down on OL if they are truly overall BPA should not be dismissed.   We could use depth everywhere except S long term and that’s how we should be viewing the draft (preaching to choir I know but meant more for general discussion).  

If we get Darnold/Rosen great.  If we get Nelson I’m totally fine he’s the 4th highest overall guy awesome.  

 

Good take. I'll guarantee you the Redskins don't mind drafting Scherff at 5 (somewhere around there) a few years ago. He's the best OG in the NFL. He changes a game. As a DC he's a guy you actually have to game plan around.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, AKRNA said:

Good take. I'll guarantee you the Redskins don't mind drafting Scherff at 5 (somewhere around there) a few years ago. He's the best OG in the NFL. He changes a game. As a DC he's a guy you actually have to game plan around.

Absolutely. Same with Decastro and PITT and Martin in DAL. 

[thebestever6]

25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Wasting a Rd 1 pick sets a franchise back 2 years minimum, usually 3+ years.   Lynch is exhibit A, assuming he's not the answer.    Are  you suggesting we have to get a franchise QB this year, even if we whiff on Darnold/Rosen?   Because if we miss on Darnold/Rosen, the history is not pretty when teams go looking Round 1.   Let's revisit...

2007
1: JaMarcus Russell, Raiders 
22: Brady Quinn, Browns 

2008
3: Matt Ryan, Falcons 
18: Joe Flacco, Ravens 

2009
1: Matthew Stafford, Lions 
5: Mark Sanchez, Jets 
17: Josh Freeman, Buccaneers 

2010
1: Sam Bradford, Rams 
25: Tim Tebow, Broncos 

2011
1: Cam Newton, Panthers 
8: Jake Locker, Titans 
10: Blaine Gabbert, Jaguars 
12: Christian Ponder, Vikings 

2012
1: Andrew Luck, Colts 
2: Robert Griffin III, Redskins 
8: Ryan Tannehill, Dolphins 
22: Brandon Weeden, Browns 

2013
16: EJ Manuel, Bills 

2014
3: Blake Bortles, Jaguars 
22: Johnny Manziel, Browns 
32: Teddy Bridgewater, Vikings 

2015
1: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers 
2: Marcus Mariota, Titans 

2016
1: Jared Goff, Rams 
2: Carson Wentz, Eagles 
26: Paxton Lynch, Broncos

 

Now, we should recognize Deshaun Watson in the teens this past year helps the trend.  But basically, if you reach for a non-elite QB in the 1st....your franchise is sunk.   You keep being against a stopgap for next year - no one wants that as plan A.     Plan A is getting a true franchise QB...right now, the only 2 that most people (myself included) feel good about are Darnold/Rosen.   If we get them, great.   But as we covered, plan A is no lock - we are not getting better than the 3/4 pick, and with each win, we drop further back - and NYG/BUF/CLE all have us sorely outgunned in draft pick capital (and ARI/NYJ will be right there with us).  Free-agency wise, there is no franchise QB we can bid for.  We're outgunned to a greater extent.  
 

But Plan B has to be there.   If we don't get Plan A - then get a stopgap for 1 year and get a developmental QB in later rounds - this also allows you to move forward without investing resources that set us back another 2-3 years if we miss.  You keep questioning stopgap QB's - but we are way, way, better off not committing huge resources to a QB that isn't worth that commitment if we can't get that true franchise QB.   10M for 3-4 more W's would be an awesome result - but again, it only matters if we address the other areas on the team, because ultimately  we don't get back into contention unless we fix those areas too - a good QB covers up only so much.  We're way beyond the level that a good QB makes enough of a difference.  

 

Everyone wants the franchise QB.  The problem is we can't bank on them being there for us when we draft - and we have no chance in FA.  So there has to be a plan if we don't.   That's not the preference - it's just reality.

I'd be all for if we can't nab a true franchise guy like a Darnold or Rosen if we think they are. I'd be in favor of trading back if someone fell in love with Lamar Jackson. If we could get an extra first next year that gives us lots of versatility. 

I also don't mind rolling with Kelly and Lynch next year in training camp. Because getting a stop gap qb doesn't reallt solve an issue. I'd rather roll with those 2 and be in great shape in next year's draft if they don't pan out.

I don't believe in using cap for something that at best sneaks us into the playoffs just to get eliminated.

 

 

[Scoundrel]

18 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

We’re so talent poor doubling down on OL if they are truly overall BPA should not be dismissed.   We could use depth everywhere except S long term and that’s how we should be viewing the draft (preaching to choir I know but meant more for general discussion).  Plus things change so quickly.     A counter argument to taking ILB Foster was we had Marshall already and Davis was ok.   6 months later we might need not 1 but 2 upgrades if Marshall can’t get past his injuries and return to his old grin (2017 isn’t even close to his 2015 or even 2016 form).   At his age/mileage we should be happy Leary is playing really well but banking on it long term should not be our assumption.  

If we get Darnold/Rosen great.  If we get Nelson I’m totally fine he’s the 4th highest overall guy awesome.  That shouldn’t prevent us from going OL again if they are overall BPA later on. 

 

I'm the proponent of doubling at Oline and trading for a vet QB. 

[Scoundrel]

Nelson and a Tyrell Crosby

or an Orlando Brown and  Braden Smith etc...

[Scoundrel]

8 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

I'd be all for if we can't nab a true franchise guy like a Darnold or Rosen if we think they are. I'd be in favor of trading back if someone fell in love with Lamar Jackson. If we could get an extra first next year that gives us lots of versatility. 

I also don't mind rolling with Kelly and Lynch next year in training camp. Because getting a stop gap qb doesn't reallt solve an issue. I'd rather roll with those 2 and be in great shape in next year's draft if they don't pan out.

I don't believe in using cap for something that at best sneaks us into the playoffs just to get eliminated.

 

 

Any given Sunday. You don't know what could happen once we get into the playoffs. It's about winning games and rolling with mush at QB until you get it right will make us the Browns if we miss. Which we have done just two years ago.

[thebestever6]

16 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Any given Sunday. You don't know what could happen once we get into the playoffs. It's about winning games and rolling with mush at QB until you get it right will make us the Browns if we miss. Which we have done just two years ago.

So stop taking the shots because we're afraid of missing? And it doesn't make us the Browns the Browns passed up on Carson Wentz, and Desean Watson.

You can't be afraid of drafting a qb because of a miss. Eagles traded a second and foles for Bradford, and also spent a 3rd on Foles. And they weren't afraid of taking a chance on Wentz because you don't have to bat a 1000 to have success.

And any given Sunday is a load of bs. The championship teams the last decade mostly had Brady, Manning, Big Ben, Rodgers that's not coincidental. The eagles are number 1 in the power rankings and have the best record that again is not coincidental. 

[Scoundrel]

9 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

So stop taking the shots because we're afraid of missing? And it doesn't make us the Browns the Browns passed up on Carson Wentz, and Desean Watson.

You can't be afraid of drafting a qb because of a miss. Eagles traded a second and foles for Bradford, and also spent a 3rd on Foles. And they weren't afraid of taking a chance on Wentz because you don't have to bat a 1000 to have success.

And any given Sunday is a load of bs. The championship teams the last decade mostly had Brady, Manning, Big Ben, Rodgers that's not coincidental. The eagles are number 1 in the power rankings and have the best record that again is not coincidental. 

I'm talking BPA man

[Scoundrel]

If Nelson is BPA you take him