2018 College Prospect Thread

[thebestever6]

3 hours ago, jolly red giant said:

They may be over rated or not - but if one of them is available you have to pull the trigger on it.

I'm not saying there over rated I'm saying at this point both being 21 they may be under rated.

[thebestever6]

3 hours ago, Counselor said:

I think another option we have not spoke about (if someone has then I haven't seen it) is moving on from Talib and drafting Minkah Fitzpatrick. 

No way Corners I think we're decent at drafting not using a top 5 pick.

[Scoundrel]

28 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

No way Corners I think we're decent at drafting not using a top 5 pick.

You can say no way but you aren't Elway 

[AKRNA]

Drafting in the 6-10 spot will get you a excellent, franchise type player at more than 1 position. If CB is the position so be it.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

No way Corners I think we're decent at drafting not using a top 5 pick.

 

2 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Drafting in the 6-10 spot will get you a excellent, franchise type player at more than 1 position. If CB is the position so be it.

If BPA philosophy is to be embraced completely - you take CB if he’s clearly the best guy.   If we get a Jalen Ramsey v2 then guess what?  We don’t need to keep Talib at 11M and we can part ways with Roby at 8.5M. By 2019 neither guy is likely in our plans.   Then we will wish we had gone CB if we had passed on a Ramsey level talent.  We’ve hit on Chris Harris Jr. late.   We spent top FA $ to get Talib and we spent a late 1st on Roby.   It’s not like we are a CB factory.   And even if we were if a CB is hands down the best overall guy we take him.   At that stage of the draft you are getting a shutdown CB cheap for 4-5 years.   We have so many future holes you just keep accumulating talent and let the roster build.  If there is no clear Best guy need is OK to use as a tiebreaker.   But never need or current roster construction over Best overall talent.  That’s BPA and it works.   NO and Ramczyk.   PIT and TJ Watt.  And so on.   

And to take it one step further - NO was all set to take their BPA at 1.32 - Reuben Foster.  When SF moved up to snipe Foster from the Saints (well-documented NO was on the phone telling Foster they were taking him when SF pulled the trade), did NO panic and go by need?  Nope, they just went with the next guy on their board - Ramczyk, even though they already had Terron Armstead.   And then they didn't address ILB until midway through Round 3, and having taken 2 more guys in-between - 3 picks later for them, because ILB wasn't overall BPA on their board the next 2 picks.   They didn't panic on need, and force an ILB pick after Foster went - they just took the next guy on their overall board.   That's how legendary drafts are built.   Contrast that to Elway reaching for "his guy" each year in Rd 2-3.  And it's not just NO..it's SEA, it's PIT, GB, and yes...NE.   The same orgs that stay in contention for years at a time..and the same teams that take very little time to turn things around once they do have to retool/rebuild.   Tom Telesco is doing the same with the Chargers, the last 2 drafts he's just gotten insane value - because it isn't tied to need, but overall BPA.   And guess which team is on the rise the most in the AFCW?  Yup, the same Chargers. 

@thebestever6 you keep saying you get we should do overall BPA but statements like taking Lynch was ok in 2016 because we had 3 EDGES instead of Chris Jones (who plays 3-4 DE anyways, but saying we had Wolfe and Gotsis invested year b4 still misses the point of overall BPA) and not taking CB if he's truly best overall in 2018 Rd 1 shows you really don’t embrace this fully.   But embracing overall BPA is what’s needed.   It’s what Elway did to start the rebuild in 2011.  And what he’s gotten away from thinking we are 1-2 guys away in factoring in Rd1 picks (starting with Sly Williams, and now with Lynch and Bolles) .  We can see that we aren’t that team anymore talent-wise.   So it’s time to go back to overall BPA drafting.    It’s what the best draft orgs do.   If overall BPA meets an immediate need great.  But every position becomes a need within 2+ years (exceptions being QB & K/P lol, but everywhere else this applies).   It’s why overall BPA works in the long run.     

 

 

[Scoundrel]

Yes Minkah has the ability to be a very good playmaker in the secondary for a long time. Again it's all about BPA. But I don't think we land Rosen or Darnold where we end up picking. Nelson, Fitzpatrick, and B. Chubb may be the BPA around our selection. And I hope we don't reach for a Rudolph or Allen at QB. Please don't do it Elway!

[thebestever6]

8 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

If BPA philosophy is to be embraced completely - you take CB if he’s clearly the best guy.   If we get a Jalen Ramsey v2 then guess what?  We don’t need to keep Talib at 11M and we can part ways with Roby at 8.5M. By 2019 neither guy is likely in our plans.   Then we will wish we had gone CB if we had passed on a Ramsey level talent.  We’ve hit on Chris Harris Jr. late.   We spent top FA $ to get Talib and we spent a late 1st on Roby.   It’s not like we are a CB factory.   And even if we were if a CB is hands down the best overall guy we take him.   At that stage of the draft you are getting a shutdown CB cheap for 4-5 years.   We have so many future holes you just keep accumulating talent and let the roster build.  If there is no clear Best guy need is OK to use as a tiebreaker.   But never need or current roster construction over Best overall talent.  That’s BPA and it works.   NO and Ramczyk.   PIT and TJ Watt.  And so on.   

And to take it one step further - NO was all set to take their BPA at 1.32 - Reuben Foster.  When SF moved up to snipe Foster from the Saints (well-documented NO was on the phone telling Foster they were taking him when SF pulled the trade), did NO panic and go by need?  Nope, they just went with the next guy on their board - Ramczyk, even though they already had Terron Armstead.   And then they didn't address ILB until midway through Round 3, and having taken 2 more guys in-between - 3 picks later for them, because ILB wasn't overall BPA on their board the next 2 picks.   They didn't panic on need, and force an ILB pick after Foster went - they just took the next guy on their overall board.   That's how legendary drafts are built.   Contrast that to Elway reaching for "his guy" each year in Rd 2-3.  And it's not just NO..it's SEA, it's PIT, GB, and yes...NE.   The same orgs that stay in contention for years at a time..and the same teams that take very little time to turn things around once they do have to retool/rebuild.   Tom Telesco is doing the same with the Chargers, the last 2 drafts he's just gotten insane value - because it isn't tied to need, but overall BPA.   And guess which team is on the rise the most in the AFCW?  Yup, the same Chargers. 

@thebestever6 you keep saying you get we should do overall BPA but statements like taking Lynch was ok in 2016 because we had 3 EDGES instead of Chris Jones (who plays 3-4 DE anyways, but saying we had Wolfe and Gotsis invested year b4 still misses the point of overall BPA) and not taking CB if he's truly best overall in 2018 Rd 1 shows you really don’t embrace this fully.   But embracing overall BPA is what’s needed.   It’s what Elway did to start the rebuild in 2011.  And what he’s gotten away from thinking we are 1-2 guys away in factoring in Rd1 picks (starting with Sly Williams, and now with Lynch and Bolles) .  We can see that we aren’t that team anymore talent-wise.   So it’s time to go back to overall BPA drafting.    It’s what the best draft orgs do.   If overall BPA meets an immediate need great.  But every position becomes a need within 2+ years (exceptions being QB & K/P lol, but everywhere else this applies).   It’s why overall BPA works in the long run.     

 

 

Because there are exceptions thats why you don't see kickers and punters go that hight.

Out of all the positions Elway has drafted secondary is the least one that I worry about him drafting. Followed by d lineman. 

I just think people kill elway for that Lynch pick too much.  In hindsight it's always easy. But we forget both the cowboys and the chiefs were trying to trade up for Lynch. And those are two teams that I feel go bpa. So there was something in Lynch they saw.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Because there are exceptions thats why you don't see kickers and punters go that hight.

Out of all the positions Elway has drafted secondary is the least one that I worry about him drafting. Followed by d lineman. 

I just think people kill elway for that Lynch pick too much.  In hindsight it's always easy. But we forget both the cowboys and the chiefs were trying to trade up for Lynch. And those are two teams that I feel go bpa. So there was something in Lynch they saw.

Again just look at the QB Round 1 list.  Teams make the mistake of reaching for QB when it’s not warranted.   We aren’t alone but it doesn’t change that fact.  We just happen to be the latest example.

Comparing P/K to any other position is a ridiculous argument to justifying passing on CB if they are BPA.  One of the premium positions vs one you can regularly replace with a UDFA/7th round pick.   Overall BPA says you take best talent if there’s a gap.  No exceptions.   Present need and current roster makeup don’t overrule better talent.   Look at what DAL did with taking a 4-3 DE in Charlton over TJ Watt.   

Better yet - the Chargers took Joey Bosa even though he was supposedly a terrible fit for a 3-4.   They now have switched to a 4-3 to max out his elite skills.   Talent over roster and present needs.   The list just goes on and on.  Going overall BPA pays off when a gap in talent exists.  Time and again. 

Trying to justify a mistake out of need because other teams do it is just the rationalization stage of grief.  At least you are past the denial stage.  Acceptance comes soon.

If a guy is truly better talent wise than the rest of the field by a fair margin  you take him.  No exceptions.  Saying exceptions are there means you aren’t using the BPA approach.  Which is what has us in this roster mess we now face.  Elway needs to go back to BPA philosophy he’s abandoned.  It’s not even a debate at this stage.  

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Again just look at the QB Round 1 list.  Teams make the mistake of reaching for QB when it’s not warranted.   We aren’t alone but it doesn’t change that fact.  We just happen to be the latest example.

Comparing P/K to any other position is a ridiculous argument to justifying passing on CB if they are BPA.  One of the premium positions vs one you can regularly replace with a UDFA/7th round pick.   Overall BPA says you take best talent if there’s a gap.  No exceptions.   Present need and current roster makeup don’t overrule better talent.   Look at what DAL did with taking a 4-3 DE in Charlton over TJ Watt.   

Better yet - the Chargers took Joey Bosa even though he was supposedly a terrible fit for a 3-4.   They now have switched to a 4-3 to max out his elite skills.   Talent over roster and present needs.   The list just goes on and on.  Going overall BPA pays off when a gap in talent exists.  Time and again. 

Trying to justify a mistake out of need because other teams do it is just the rationalization stage of grief.  At least you are past the denial stage.  Acceptance comes soon.

If a guy is truly better talent wise than the rest of the field by a fair margin  you take him.  No exceptions.  Saying exceptions are there means you aren’t using the BPA approach.  Which is what has us in this roster mess we now face.  Elway needs to go back to BPA philosophy he’s abandoned.  It’s not even a debate at this stage.  

I'm not rationalizing anything nada. I'm looking at factual things. Chiefs, and Cowboys do bpa and I'm not gonna kill Elway for every move he makes.

I think offensively Elway has done a poor job at drafting. There's no arguing that.  And yes it would of been nice to draft Malik Jackson replacement before he even came up in free agency.

And Bpa I largely agree with but you'll find in the top 5 to 10 picks you'll see a large number of qbs, edge rushers, oline help. Basically the hardest positions to grab.

Given the fact that Elways eye for secondary talent is pretty good. It would have to be a generational talent to draft one in the top 5 to 10.

 

Right now everyone is too reactionary I like to be middle ground when we were winning with Manning I said hold your horses on Elway being a genius.  Now im saying its too much in the other direction.

[germ-x]

I honestly don’t buy all this BPA talk.  It sounds great in theory and at times it definitely happens, but I don’t think it happens at the rate people assume.  It also lends itself to revisionist history, which is typically where fans make up their minds that there was a better player, but the team decided to go for need over talent.

Now, there are scenarios where teams go more heavily toward BPA.  The top 5-8 depending on the talent in the draft and after that if a player falls because of character or injuries.  In most drafts from prospects 10-20, 20-30, 30-40, 40-50, there isn’t a significant difference on player grades.  This means teams are drafting the BPA at a position of need.  

This also makes it seem like teams are drafting players a round or more ahead of where the team has them graded.  At least in Elways case, I don’t think that’s happening.  Which to me makes it less about Denver drafting for need and more about player evaluation.

Garret Bolles is/will be a great example.  Most draftniks had him rated 20-25 on their boards.  Some had him lower and in the early 2nd and some had him higher, Scouts Inc. had him at 16.  Where Denver drafted him wasn’t terrible.  I know the majority of posters on this forum were perfectly fine taking Bolles, Ramcyck, or Lamp at 20, even if they had some players they liked more that ended up being available.  

If you take Denver’s 2017 draft into consideration I really don’t see any major reaches.  Bolles was selected around where he should’ve been as a BPA at a position of need.  Walker, IMO, was a BPA selection, many had him as a top 5 player left on the board (though it was the biggest head scratcher pick for me).  Henderson was good value where selected based on the majority of boards (even though I wasn’t his biggest fan).  Langley may have been the biggest reach pick, IMO, but that wasn’t a need pick for Denver and you can’t deny his physical gifts, the selection points more to BPA than need.  Butt at TE was obviously a need, but it was known he likely wouldn’t play this year so that was more BPA.  McKenzie was a BPA based on need for his return ability, but there were many draftniks raving on that selection.  Henderson was another BPA/need at the time without Charles, but I won’t complain about it.  And Kelly was pure BPA as he likely goes top 3 rounds if not for the off the field and injuries.

To me, this isn’t about taking BPA and how Elway doesn’t use it because the majority of the time it doesn’t happen league wide.  It’s about player evaluation and over the past few years this team has been missing on that evaluation.  Don’t think for a second Elway is taking players they have graded in the 4th round a round or more higher because of need.  It’s not happening. They just aren’t evaluating and putting these players in a position to succeed.

[germ-x]

22 hours ago, Counselor said:

Yes Minkah has the ability to be a very good playmaker in the secondary for a long time. Again it's all about BPA. But I don't think we land Rosen or Darnold where we end up picking. Nelson, Fitzpatrick, and B. Chubb may be the BPA around our selection. And I hope we don't reach for a Rudolph or Allen at QB. Please don't do it Elway!

I actually like both Rudolph and Allen. They’re polar opposites and I wouldn’t want them top 10 but late 1st round I wouldn’t complain.

Rudolph doesn’t have the physical talent, but man outside of Darnold, there isn’t a more accurate QB that understands touch and throwing a player open in the draft.  

Allen is just a great physical talent who I’ve also been impressed with his ability to use touch (which was my biggest knock on Lynch).  

[Scoundrel]

Give me Baker. Over Darnold Over Rosen. He has the IT factor. He has what Watson had last year. I want that kid as my QB.

[jsthomp2007]

On 11/22/2017 at 3:29 PM, Counselor said:

Yes it is. If we could get a solid Vet QB and get a RT and G in the draft early we will compete soon. But I think a lot want to grab a young franchise QB and I'm fine with that but at the same time this D might be wasted in that transition phase and if said QB busts we are way further behind the curve. We already have one first round QB that looks like a bust. 

Yeah, but that is at the risk of getting a young QB killed.  Unless, he is mobile like Russell Wilson; but that isn't easy to find...unless, you are talking Lamar Jackson, in which case you might find him later in the draft. 

[germ-x]

13 hours ago, Counselor said:

Give me Baker. Over Darnold Over Rosen. He has the IT factor. He has what Watson had last year. I want that kid as my QB.

Yeah, I’m not sold on Mayfield or the IT factor.  He’s a great college player no doubt, but he’s small, with small hands, and is an average athlete.  Even at the college level Mayfields size is an issue as OU moves the pocket for him constantly so he can get throwing paths (which isn’t going to work at the NFL level like it does in college).  His improv plays are a beauty to watch, but again aren’t going to work like that in the NFL.  He’s also not an exceptional athlete like a Russell Wilson or a Deshaun Watson and won’t be nearly as big of a threat to run like he is in college.  He’s a 6 foot pocket passer, those players rarely (Drew Brees is the only one I can even think of) workout.

His fiery attitude has caused people to overlook the fact that as a prospect he’s better suited as a backup than as a starter.

[Scoundrel]

6 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Yeah, I’m not sold on Mayfield or the IT factor.  He’s a great college player no doubt, but he’s small, with small hands, and is an average athlete.  Even at the college level Mayfields size is an issue as OU moves the pocket for him constantly so he can get throwing paths (which isn’t going to work at the NFL level like it does in college).  His improv plays are a beauty to watch, but again aren’t going to work like that in the NFL.  He’s also not an exceptional athlete like a Russell Wilson or a Deshaun Watson and won’t be nearly as big of a threat to run like he is in college.  He’s a 6 foot pocket passer, those players rarely (Drew Brees is the only one I can even think of) workout.

His fiery attitude has caused people to overlook the fact that as a prospect he’s better suited as a backup than as a starter.

I don't agree with you at all. But we can agree to disagree because I don't have time right now to go into it.