2018 College Prospect Thread

[germ-x]

The thing with a QB is they have to be able to throw.  They have to project to be able to throw within an NFL offense.

Jackson can’t.  He may look good early and his athleticism is exceptional, but NFL defenses will figure out how to keep him in the pocket and make him win with his arm.  He isn’t even close to that type of player.

Its why I’m not on the Mayfield bandwagon either.  Clearly he’s far more advanced as a passer than Jackson, but there are serious questions about his ability to throw in the pocket and within the rhythm of the offense.

I want a passer.  A guy with accuracy, who can consistently throw from the pocket, can make anticipatory throws, and can throw guys open.  There are 3 in this draft.  Darnold, Rosen, and Rudolph.  

[Scoundrel]

It would be very Brownish to take him number one over all

[Scoundrel]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

The thing with a QB is they have to be able to throw.  They have to project to be able to throw within an NFL offense.

Jackson can’t.  He may look good early and his athleticism is exceptional, but NFL defenses will figure out how to keep him in the pocket and make him win with his arm.  He isn’t even close to that type of player.

Its why I’m not on the Mayfield bandwagon either.  Clearly he’s far more advanced as a passer than Jackson, but there are serious questions about his ability to throw in the pocket and within the rhythm of the offense.

I want a passer.  A guy with accuracy, who can consistently throw from the pocket, can make anticipatory throws, and can throw guys open.  There are 3 in this draft.  Darnold, Rosen, and Rudolph.  

Not sure on in pocket numbers but overall this season:

completion percentage:

Rosen 62.5

Darnold 63.3

Rudolph 65.0

Mayfield 71.4

I'm sorry but this narrative Mayfield can't be accurate from the pocket is wrong. I've seen it with my own eyes time after time this year. 

[germ-x]

13 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Not sure on in pocket numbers but overall this season:

completion percentage:

Rosen 62.5

Darnold 63.3

Rudolph 65.0

Mayfield 71.4

I'm sorry but this narrative Mayfield can't be accurate from the pocket is wrong. I've seen it with my own eyes time after time this year. 

Completion percentage is the most overrated statistic in college football, especially with teams running the spread.  Paxton Lynch completed 67% his senior year and no one claimed he was an accurate QB. Carson Wentz completed 62% his senior year and was the #2 pick and possibly NFL MVP in year 2.  It’s about the throws they’re making.  

[Scoundrel]

2 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Completion percentage is the most overrated statistic in college football, especially with teams running the spread.  Paxton Lynch completed 67% his senior year and no one claimed he was an accurate QB. Carson Wentz completed 62% his senior year and was the #2 pick and possibly NFL MVP in year 2.  It’s about the throws they’re making.  

Agreed to an extent but the statistic can support the film and in this case with Baker it supports that he can accurately make all the throws. 

[Scoundrel]

I'm not saying Baker will be more accurate or better than those QBs in the NFL. But I am saying this narrative with him not being accurate and making the throws from the pocket is asinine. Just because he can do so much outside when a play breaks down. I've seen the in the pocket throws and broken down tons of film on the kid and focused a lot on in the pocket mechanics, footwork, progression reads, etc. I just can't agree with that narrative. Does he have areas he needs to improve on? Of course. 

[Scoundrel]

Can I be wrong? Sure I have been before. But Mayfield is not going to be running around with his eyes down like a Paxton Lynch when he feels pressure. He is going to make a play. I'm confident he will be good in the league. If I'm wrong I'll eat crow no problem. 

[germ-x]

11 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Can I be wrong? Sure I have been before. But Mayfield is not going to be running around with his eyes down like a Paxton Lynch when he feels pressure. He is going to make a play. I'm confident he will be good in the league. If I'm wrong I'll eat crow no problem. 

So what NFL traits do you see in Mayfield?  I’m not saying he doesn’t do things I like, but overall I see far more flaws to his game transitioning to the NFL than positives.

[germ-x]

I just watched every pass play from the OU vs OSU game.  At best 50% of his attempts were NFL caliber throws (and that’s being generous).  Maybe a handful of his completions came within the pocket making a progression (again being generous).  When the first read wasn’t open it turned into backyard football.  It doesn’t appear that he does anything pre snap to target the open player.  A solid half of the play calls got him out of the pocket. Well over half of his completions were to “college wide” open players or screen passes.

He no doubt has great instincts and can improvise.  He also shows the ability to target back shoulder throws (which is a bread and butter play in the NFL), he does a good job of throwing the ball where only his player can get it as well, which avoids TOs.  Maybe his best quality is he can be accurate on the run.

[Scoundrel]

2 hours ago, germ-x said:

I just watched every pass play from the OU vs OSU game.  At best 50% of his attempts were NFL caliber throws (and that’s being generous).  Maybe a handful of his completions came within the pocket making a progression (again being generous).  When the first read wasn’t open it turned into backyard football.  It doesn’t appear that he does anything pre snap to target the open player.  A solid half of the play calls got him out of the pocket. Well over half of his completions were to “college wide” open players or screen passes.

He no doubt has great instincts and can improvise.  He also shows the ability to target back shoulder throws (which is a bread and butter play in the NFL), he does a good job of throwing the ball where only his player can get it as well, which avoids TOs.  Maybe his best quality is he can be accurate on the run.

Let's not discredit a QB for finding wide open players. That is weak. 

Are you seeing that he has to extend plays because guys aren't open? Because if you aren't you aren't seeing the full play. Also there are very many throws he stays in the pocket in that game and delivers strikes... The second throw to Lamb he went to his third read while hanging in the pocket as just one example. He is great outside of the pocket and as you said designed plays to get him there. Let's not discredit him for a strength either and for plays designed for that. If a team is handing you easy throws you make the smart throws to win games. He did that against OSU. 

His traits? NFL caliber arm (not the strongest but strong enough), a pure playmaker, leader, the ability to read a defense and find the open man, a decent athlete, accurate passer (ball placement is elite), takes care of the football for the most part, doesn't crumble in the face of pressure and extends plays, and a winner.

[Scoundrel]

If you want to see some good examples of him going through progressions watch the OK state game. 

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

If we were to pass up Rosen, Darnold and Baker. I’d love him as a late day 2/early day 3 pick 

He is going way, way earlier than that. With his physical tools he is a R1 lock IMO. I like him if we already had a QB, but I don't believe he is ready to start. And drafting him R1 AND signing a stopgap would be tough to swallow. He is closer to Kizer than Watson IMO, but more physically talented than both. Watson was a really polished product coming out who had an elite NCAA pedigree and the maturity of a 5 year veteran. As Broncofan alluded, his issues were that he wasn't elite physically and his arm was good-not-great.

 

[germ-x]

6 hours ago, Counselor said:

Let's not discredit a QB for finding wide open players. That is weak. 

Are you seeing that he has to extend plays because guys aren't open? Because if you aren't you aren't seeing the full play. Also there are very many throws he stays in the pocket in that game and delivers strikes... The second throw to Lamb he went to his third read while hanging in the pocket as just one example. He is great outside of the pocket and as you said designed plays to get him there. Let's not discredit him for a strength either and for plays designed for that. If a team is handing you easy throws you make the smart throws to win games. He did that against OSU. 

His traits? NFL caliber arm (not the strongest but strong enough), a pure playmaker, leader, the ability to read a defense and find the open man, a decent athlete, accurate passer (ball placement is elite), takes care of the football for the most part, doesn't crumble in the face of pressure and extends plays, and a winner.

It’s not weak at all.  It’s part of the evaluation.  It’s not Mayfields fault, but this is about how Mayfield can transition to the NFL.  NFL WRs are literally never open, so watching a bunch of plays where he throws to his first read who doesn’t have a player within 5 sometimes even 10 yards is almost pointless.

Ill have to rewatch the game, it was late and I was doing it quickly, but I didn’t notice him going through progressions and then improvising.  I saw him look at his first read, it was covered, and then get out of the pocket.  

He is great outside the pocket, as I noted.  But that’s where the NFL transition comes into play.  NFL teams can’t move the pocket for him 50+% of the time.  They have to ask, is this a strength that can be utilized or is it absolutely needed for him to be successful?  Does he need a terrific OL to keep him clean and able to stay in the pocket? Do they have to be good enough to create throwing lanes?  He’s short and IIRC, had 3 batted balls vs Ohio State and nearly all of his success came hitting the first option quickly or by getting out of the pocket.  

As for Oklahoma State I’ll have to watch it tonight.

[Scoundrel]

I've seen him be successful in the pocket so I really believe he can be. And moving the pocket helps a lot with interior pressure he was getting and ends crashing down it keeps the ends honest and in turn allows Rodney Anderson to gash them inside. It's all by design and OUs offense won't change next year with Baker gone. His ability to make quick precise decisions is impressive. At least to me it is. 

[Scoundrel]

But does he find his open guy and place the ball in stride with pressure in his face? He does. There is still value in him being able to hit his wide open guys. So it isn't pointless in my opinion.