2018 College Prospect Thread

[BroncosFan2010]

It doesn't even matter if Cousins is worth what he will demand, because we don't have the cap space for him and we wont surrender the picks needed to get him.

Quote

Those were just the first guys that came to mind. There are plenty of examples of guys getting more than one chance. Should have gone with like McCown, Hoyer, Fitzpatrick, Cutler, Cassell etc. Most running QBs get weeded out in the draft process. Jerod Evans this past year went undrafted and I think he is a good example. Dudes like Braxton Miller and Denard Robinson have to switch positions. It's just a much tougher barrier of entry for those guys to get opportunities, even though I truly believe it would help teams. Obviously most of the examples I could toss out aren't franchise QBs, but the point is that most QBs aren't. Like, as the Broncos backup QB moving forward, I'd rather be trying to develop Jerod Evans and bank on him to make plays than trust a Brock Osweiler to come in - if we were actually trying to win games. 

Agree to disagree then. I think all the guys you listed were pretty bad in college.

On another note, I wonder how we address the #3WR spot. We cant assume Carlos Henderson will contribute next season coming off an injury with what scouts already said was a poor penchant for remembering plays/running routes. Do we use a top 100 pick on a NFL ready guy? James Washington is going to be a stud but when all is said and done, he is going in the top 40-50 picks IMO. Not sure we want to use a pick that high after spending 83 on Carlos last year. He is a bit of a Mike Evans to Mayfields Johnny Manziel in a way, but not to the same extent.

I probably would just sign a reliable, cheap slot WR to act almost like a TE safety valve, since finding a TE is going to be much harder. My favorite right now is simply to give Eric Decker a one year, 3M or so deal. He has lost some speed so his home is as a big slot, chain moving WR but our new QB regardless of a rookie or vet, will need a 3rd reliable option. Rather than trying to overdraft a TE, or pay Jimmy Graham 10-12M per season, I would just take Decker and call it a day. We all want an explosive guy but they are going to cost a ton and we have Carlos developing in the meantime hopefully someday becoming that man. I also would resign Latimer to a vet min deal to keep his ST abilities.

WR1 - Deymarius Thomas / Cody Latimer WR2 - Emmanuel Sanders / Carlos Henderson WR3 - Eric Decker

And cut the useless McKenzie.

[Broncofan]

Re: Cousins we can’t and shouldn’t get him.   He kills our ability to field a good enough team.  We aren’t even close to good enough in our overall talent for him to make enough of a difference and we need the draft capital and cap space to accomplish that first objective (get enough overall talent elsewhere along with addressing QB short & long term).   Again the best result would be if CLE gets him because it then takes them off the board for Darnold / Rosen.   

At the same time people are undervaluing just how good Cousins is.  He is playing this year with the 25th Best OL pass pro wise, a WR corps devoid of talent and no run game whatsoever (22nd / 32).   WAS has lost all their starters on OL now, which is why their OL Play is so bad (pass pro ranks just above us overall but that doesn’t account for the 1H/2H drastic change).   Even Russell Wilson has Doug Baldwin / Jimmy Graham to throw to, and Paul Richardson  and Tyler Lockett rank in top 50 in WR play - WAS has Jamison Crowder crack the top 50 barely ahead of Lockett, the 4th SEA guy.    And yet WAS has the 11th ranked pass O - it’s literally all because of Cousins.  

He’s too expensive for us and we are sorely outbid.   But at worst he’s somewhere in the top 5-10 guys you want for the next 5 years in a vacuum.   CLE gets him and likely they are a .500 team right away and a playoff team by 2019 once the rest of their pieces gel.  But Cousins also shows that QB can only mask team deficiencies so much - Dak Prescott 2017 shows that even more.  

I say all the above because CLE is addressing OL DL TE already and likely addresses bellcow RB/2nd WR/3rd WR/more CB upgrades by FA/draft...and then they will be a fun team to watch.    Take away the team label and history and look at the talent and they aren’t too different than us - just younger (and so less well known / recognized guys like Myle Garrett as the next Miller / Mack & Emmanuel Ogbah as the next Malik) with more cap space and draft capital.  They can afford to pay up for Cousins.   We need a cheaper solution.   Since CLE has us outgunned in the draft by a mile we should be praying they take the expensive one in Cousins.   But just because he is too expensive doesn’t mean he’s not a future elite QB - frankly he might already be there now.  We need Darnold / Rosen as plan A because they have an elite ceiling and they are cheap. We need both. But if they ended up at Cousins level of play that would be a success.   

 

 

[BroncosFan2010]

It doesn't even matter if Cousins is worth what he will demand, because we don't have the cap space for him and we wont surrender the picks needed to get him.

Quote

Those were just the first guys that came to mind. There are plenty of examples of guys getting more than one chance. Should have gone with like McCown, Hoyer, Fitzpatrick, Cutler, Cassell etc. Most running QBs get weeded out in the draft process. Jerod Evans this past year went undrafted and I think he is a good example. Dudes like Braxton Miller and Denard Robinson have to switch positions. It's just a much tougher barrier of entry for those guys to get opportunities, even though I truly believe it would help teams. Obviously most of the examples I could toss out aren't franchise QBs, but the point is that most QBs aren't. Like, as the Broncos backup QB moving forward, I'd rather be trying to develop Jerod Evans and bank on him to make plays than trust a Brock Osweiler to come in - if we were actually trying to win games. 

Agree to disagree then. I think all the guys you listed were pretty bad in college.

On another note, I wonder how we address the #3WR spot. We cant assume Carlos Henderson will contribute next season coming off an injury with what scouts already said was a poor penchant for remembering plays/running routes. Do we use a top 100 pick on a NFL ready guy? James Washington is going to be a stud but when all is said and done, he is going in the top 40-50 picks IMO. Not sure we want to use a pick that high after spending 83 on Carlos last year. He is a bit of a Mike Evans to Mayfields Johnny Manziel in a way, but not to the same extent.

I probably would just sign a reliable, cheap slot WR to act almost like a TE safety valve, since finding a TE is going to be much harder. My favorite right now is simply to give Eric Decker a one year, 3M or so deal. He has lost some speed so his home is as a big slot, chain moving WR but our new QB regardless of a rookie or vet, will need a 3rd reliable option. Rather than trying to overdraft a TE, or pay Jimmy Graham 10-12M per season, I would just take Decker and call it a day. We all want an explosive guy but they are going to cost a ton and we have Carlos developing in the meantime hopefully someday becoming that man. I also would resign Latimer to a vet min deal to keep his ST abilities.

WR1 - Deymarius Thomas / Cody Latimer WR2 - Emmanuel Sanders / Carlos Henderson WR3 - Eric Decker

And cut the useless McKenzie.

[Broncofan]

30 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

It doesn't even matter if Cousins is worth what he will demand, because we don't have the cap space for him and we wont surrender the picks needed to get him.

.......

On another note, I wonder how we address the #3WR spot. We cant assume Carlos Henderson will contribute next season coming off an injury with what scouts already said was a poor penchant for remembering plays/running routes. Do we use a top 100 pick on a NFL ready guy? James Washington is going to be a stud but when all is said and done, he is going in the top 40-50 picks IMO. Not sure we want to use a pick that high after spending 83 on Carlos last year. He is a bit of a Mike Evans to Mayfields Johnny Manziel in a way, but not to the same extent.

I probably would just sign a reliable, cheap slot WR to act almost like a TE safety valve, since finding a TE is going to be much harder. My favorite right now is simply to give Eric Decker a one year, 3M or so deal. He has lost some speed so his home is as a big slot, chain moving WR but our new QB regardless of a rookie or vet, will need a 3rd reliable option. Rather than trying to overdraft a TE, or pay Jimmy Graham 10-12M per season, I would just take Decker and call it a day. We all want an explosive guy but they are going to cost a ton and we have Carlos developing in the meantime hopefully someday becoming that man. I also would resign Latimer to a vet min deal to keep his ST abilities.

WR1 - Deymarius Thomas / Cody Latimer WR2 - Emmanuel Sanders / Carlos Henderson WR3 - Eric Decker

And cut the useless McKenzie.

Re: Cousins - agreed 100 percent we can't go after him.  It's important to recognize that if we are able to land Darnold / Rosen - if they ended up at Cousins' level of play, that's actually a huge success.   The problem is that it will cost way too much in salary and draft capital - why hitting on the draft is so much better than paying the top FA (because hopefully we extend that drafted guy to a team-friendly extension than pay the top gun in FA with other bidders in).   It's just once ppl realize we can't go after him - then all of sudden the criticism comes out - the halo effect (we can't afford him, too expensive for us, which is legit - then we start thinking he's not that good, either - which isn't quite true - he's just nowhere at value we can afford, big difference).

Re: 3rd WR, it really sucks that Elway spent a 3rd rounder on C-Henderson - I bet he sees it through and stands pat.  He has to give Henderson the shot to be the 3rd guy, but I agree totally that we need a plan B.  Both DT and Sanders have outs in their deals after 2018 (3.5M dead money left for DT, 14M base, 2.5M dead money for Sanders, 10.5M base) and they are FA after 2019.   Imagine when they are gone at latest by 2019 - we should absolutely prioritize a 2018 pick on a WR (again, going off overall BPA, and not get pigeonholed by need) because it takes 1-2 years for most to hit their peak.   But that would require Elway to take a long view of the team and NOT be 2018-based in his draft approach - because going by 2018 alone, he'll likely pencil C-Henderson at WR3 and not worry about long term WR1-2.  Elway certainly needs to change back to overall BPA and long-view...this would be a good test to see if he gets a WR with anything more than a flyer pick (the overall depth should allow us to take one somewhere in Day 2 / early Day 3 going by overall BPA).

[AKRNA]

So, here's my theory about QB's and salary caps right now. It's really pretty simple. If you're paying a QB over $15 million a year your chances of winning the SB drop like a stone.

If you draft a QB real high you have a window of opportunity for 5 years on his rookie deal. Once you pay him his next contract the salary cap forces you to deplete roster depth and talent in other spots. Ravens, Seahawks with Flacco and Wilson are great examples.

Sure, there are going to be exceptions. The Saints look really good but are riding the heels of a couple of great drafts. Overall though, your top paid QB's are keeping teams competitive and above average, not winning the big one.

 

 

 

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

So, here's my theory about QB's and salary caps right now. It's really pretty simple. If you're paying a QB over $15 million a year your chances of winning the SB drop like a stone.

If you draft a QB real high you have a window of opportunity for 5 years on his rookie deal. Once you pay him his next contract the salary cap forces you to deplete roster depth and talent in other spots. Ravens, Seahawks with Flacco and Wilson are great examples.

Sure, there are going to be exceptions. The Saints look really good but are riding the heels of a couple of great drafts. Overall though, your top paid QB's are keeping teams competitive and above average, not winning the big one.

 

 

 

I think the magic number now goes up to 20M now and by 2018-2019 it’s likely at 25M.   When the salary cap was 143M or less the magic # was 15M back in 2015.   Now the cap is 167M and expected to hit 175M next year (crazy).

With salary cap increases the max QB number that allows teams to compete overall is higher as more $ goes to the stars.   But the notion that you can’t devote 20+ percent of your cap to QB and still expect to field a contender absolutely holds true.  Peyton was 16m in 2015 and the 4m saved by making it a bonus (not paid until 2016) allowed us to get Vance Walker & Darian Stewart.   We don’t win a SB without both.   Fast forward to 2018 - devoting 35m when the cap is expected to be 175M is untenable.  

It’s also why hitting on the draft so much better - the first 4-5 years are mega cheap and the chance of extending at a relative bargain for 1-2 more years (and go full market after 5-6 years of value).   

[jsthomp2007]

I actually like the idea of having Cousins as a Bronco QB.  He is a quality leader and the Broncos desperately need that.  If you want to see a QB play behind a VERY BAD offensive line, look no further than the Redskins.  If the Broncos can sign Cousins, and put a decent line in front of him and a running game....I think the Broncos are back in the playoffs, if not in contention next year.  

[AKRNA]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I think the magic number now goes up to 20M now and by 2018-2019 it’s likely at 25M.   When the salary cap was 143M or less the magic # was 15M back in 2015.   Now the cap is 167M and expected to hit 175M next year (crazy).

With salary cap increases the max QB number that allows teams to compete overall is higher as more $ goes to the stars.   But the notion that you can’t devote 20+ percent of your cap to QB and still expect to field a contender absolutely holds true.  Peyton was 16m in 2015 and the 4m saved by making it a bonus (not paid until 2016) allowed us to get Vance Walker & Darian Stewart.   We don’t win a SB without both.   Fast forward to 2018 - devoting 35m when the cap is expected to be 175M is untenable.  

It’s also why hitting on the draft so much better - the first 4-5 years are mega cheap and the chance of extending at a relative bargain for 1-2 more years (and go full market after 5-6 years of value).   

It's more like a % of the cap than a hard #.  IMO spending more than about 9% of that cap, on any one player is a bad idea. Right now we're one of the more to[p heavy teams , cap wise, in the NFL. If we want better, quality, depth, better OL personnel, deeper WR's, we need to change our personnel philosophy.

Roster management is the ultimate "zero sum" game. Spend more here, spend less there. Right now, our approach is not working.

[germ-x]

If you have the ability to get a franchise caliber QB you take it regardless of price.  Look at the history of SB winning teams and their QBs.

QBs literally drive this league, they have since they 80s and still do to this day.  It’s easier to have a defense or OL or whatever fall into place for a few years than it is to find a QB to lead them to the promise land.  QBs also make up for so many team deficiencies and can almost make a team playoff bound yearly (if the QB is that good) and if it all happens to click in the playoffs you have a shot at the SB (look at the Colts, Packers, and Giants off the top of my head).

When you’re playing QB carousel like Denver has the last 2 years you suck.  

[thebestever6]

27 minutes ago, germ-x said:

If you have the ability to get a franchise caliber QB you take it regardless of price.  Look at the history of SB winning teams and their QBs.

QBs literally drive this league, they have since they 80s and still do to this day.  It’s easier to have a defense or OL or whatever fall into place for a few years than it is to find a QB to lead them to the promise land.  QBs also make up for so many team deficiencies and can almost make a team playoff bound yearly (if the QB is that good) and if it all happens to click in the playoffs you have a shot at the SB (look at the Colts, Packers, and Giants off the top of my head).

When you’re playing QB carousel like Denver has the last 2 years you suck.  

I completely agree but I rather have home grown talent than Cousins I don't think hes a franchise qb.

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, AKRNA said:

It's more like a % of the cap than a hard #.  IMO spending more than about 9% of that cap, on any one player is a bad idea. Right now we're one of the more to[p heavy teams , cap wise, in the NFL. If we want better, quality, depth, better OL personnel, deeper WR's, we need to change our personnel philosophy.

Roster management is the ultimate "zero sum" game. Spend more here, spend less there. Right now, our approach is not working.

Agreed the % matters more than the # - but I think as the cap has grown the reality is that star contracts take up much of that increase - so an increase in the % threshold is OK IMO from that original 9 percent you’d see in 2011-2014.   My number is 12-15 percent now. But yeah there’s a limit for effective roster management.  

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, germ-x said:

If you have the ability to get a franchise caliber QB you take it regardless of price.  Look at the history of SB winning teams and their QBs.

QBs literally drive this league, they have since they 80s and still do to this day.  It’s easier to have a defense or OL or whatever fall into place for a few years than it is to find a QB to lead them to the promise land.  QBs also make up for so many team deficiencies and can almost make a team playoff bound yearly (if the QB is that good) and if it all happens to click in the playoffs you have a shot at the SB (look at the Colts, Packers, and Giants off the top of my head).

When you’re playing QB carousel like Denver has the last 2 years you suck.  

I sort of agree, but not with the "regardless of price" comment. Since 2011 Flacco and Wilson won it on rookie deals, Brady twice and a well beyond prime Manning won it. Why does Brady not count? It's because he continues to play for less than market value, only $14 million against the cap this year.

There have not been any top paid QB's to win it for quite a while. I don't think that will change. If it does, it'll be the exception, not the norm.

[jolly red giant]

6 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Why does Brady not count? It's because he continues to play for less than market value, only $14 million against the cap this year.

And most people don't realise that this is the main reason why the Pats have been so good for so long - have probably the best QB of all time playing for maybe a third of his market value and you have a lot of money for free agents.

BB is a good coach but he is not some guru that has figured it out - his profile is directly connected to Brady. Without Brady or with Brady taking what you would expect him to be paid and no way the Pats win so many SBs. If BB stays as coach after Brady retires then we will see how good he actually is - but my guess is that both will go at the same time. If McDisaster takes over as is being predicted it will be fun watching him fall on his face again.

[paul-mac]

2016 - Brady (discount)

2015 - Manning (discount)

2014 - Brady (discount)

2013 - Wilson (rookie deal)

2012 - Flacco (rookie deal)

 

 

No to paying any QB £20m a year for me 

[thebestever6]

4 hours ago, paul-mac said:

2016 - Brady (discount)

2015 - Manning (discount)

2014 - Brady (discount)

2013 - Wilson (rookie deal)

2012 - Flacco (rookie deal)

 

 

No to paying any QB £20m a year for me 

I don't think manning played on a discount for us because he got the rest of the money of they won the Superbowl. So technically that isn't a discount.