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dll2000

Post Draft Big Picture Bears Thoughts

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Still wondering when Covid stuff stops and people can interact again.  Nagy said they spent last week training players and coaches on video coaching.

Look at https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchart/CHI  The TE line is hilarious.  Never seen all the boxes filled in a row on our lads before.  Probably had same at K last year, but I never looked.  

We (presumably) have starting position battles at:

QB

TE

RG

W3

CB2 and 3 and SS

DT playing time.

That is a LOT for starting jobs and there are roster and back up battles all over the place.  And it includes QB which always becomes a thing.  Guys are getting cut this year if they play bad in practice/preseason.  There were almost no battles last year and we coasted through offseason practices laughing and joking.  August will not be a good career time to get an injury in Chicago.

On paper - our defense is bringing everyone back except 3 guys:

Replacing Floyd with Quinn.  

HHCD with Bush (probably).   

Prince with Johnson, Burns or Toliver.  (Odds should be on Johnson - but keep in mind he is recovering from surgery and Bears will likely hold him out of early practices).

Quinn is a clear upgrade overall, but a downgrade on plays where they drop him.  Bush is more physical than HHCD, but not as good in coverage.  I think whoever starts at corner is probably a downgrade from Prince in 2020.  But not a giant one.

I think the Quinn addition is such an upgrade that overall on paper its still better even with 2 of 3 downgrades.  And when everyone was healthy the defense was pretty scary.  Only lasted a few games, but you could still see how good they were.  Offense did nothing to help.

Offense is replacing (presumably as of April 2020):

1. Foles for MT

2. Ifedi for Long/Coward

3. Graham and Kmet/Harris for what was initially Shaheen/Braunecker and Burton and eventually turned into Holtz and Horstead.  This is a total position remake.

4. WR 3 remains to be seen.  Probably a committee position.  I think Miller and Robinson get bulk of snaps. 

When asked about O line issues Pace said another addition besides players was the O line coach.  So they think it wasn’t just a talent problem that made them stink.   I am not sure it was all or mostly coaches fault, I think decisions on who played when, how players prepared in offseason and how Bears practiced made a huge difference in their 2019 keystone cops performance.  

I don’t think this makes them tons better and they were awful.  But I can’t see them being nearly as bad as last season.  I think if they don’t settle on a QB early in process they very well could be though.   I think Chicago fans and media will not accept coaches saying MT has won job unless he lights up a preseason game for all to see.   

It scares me a lot that Foles looked really awful early in season in last season with Philly and he was getting all the reps with Wentz hurt and the team was absolutely loaded at that time in year.  

It is also scary that NFC playoff contenders are not standing pat on talent.   Going to be a tough road.

Bears do have an elite defense, but one without quality depth at edge, DL, ILB, S and maybe CB.   They have to stay healthy.  

I think the biggest down thing is at their best the O line as a group is average.   The WR as a group is average unless Miller takes a big step up, then they can be good.  The TEs as a group may be below average still, at best they are average.  RB is good, but not explosive - so average.   QB is probably average and might be below average.

So if everything goes right we can hope to be average offensively it looks like right now.  

We still have to win games with great defense, special teams and smart offense.  We’ll see.  It’s been done before.   

    

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Remember too PS is 12 from 10 and 2 get to be on game-day roster making it 55. 

Also 48 active players on game day provided one is OL.

Teams need to start using extra roster spots to develop players.  They need to change way they practice.  

You also need to poach off other teams PS and be wary of them poaching you.  

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My big picture is that I think the Bears are primed for a bounce back year.

Offense:

  1. Trubisky has not been as good as Mahomes and Watson, we can not deny this, but he hasnt been as bad as he was last year. I actually dont think Foles starts. I think he is expected to have the same role he had in Philly and be a competent back up. 
  2. At OL, while I dont love Ifedi but he was a starter for a good Seahawks team. As mentioned before, coaching was one of the things counted as an addition. Ifedi was known for penalties. Kicking him inside to OG, as well as lowered expectations, and a change of scenery should really give him a solid chance. I do think the group will just be average but last year they were straight up bad.  Im looking forward to average haha.
  3. I liked drafting Kmet. People are saying the ceiling is Kyle Rudolph. But when is the last time you have heard of the Vikings worrying about TE?? While Kmet was OUR 1st pick, he was No.43. If we have shored up TE for the next 8 years or so Im cool with that. Forget the ridiculous amount we have on the roster, Graham and Kmet is a HUGE upgrade over Shaheen/Brauneker/Burton.....people hate Graham but I think he had like 600 yrds last season where our group had 400.
  4. I want to know what happens at RB. Montgomery wasnt very good and Cohen is strictly for gadgets(which isnt a bad thing but he isnt RB2).
  5. The WR group actually is the one Im most concerned with. While I love Anthony Miller that kid is always hurt. I like the kid we just drafted, Mooney, but he is a rookie. We didnt play Ridley much, and Wims has looked ok in flashes. This group is a house of cards though. If Robinson doesnt play all 16 games(which honestly who does?), we pretty much are going to be using 3 or 4 TE sets regularly haha.

 

Defense:

  1. DL is good with me. I actually do think we have depth and this coaching staff has proven that they can find gems.(Nick Williams last year) We have the starters....I kind of just trust the coaching staff to create the depth.
  2. OLB is our strength. Nothing really to add.
  3. ILB, Im concerned about the depth, Trevethan is not the most reliable. We pretty much are hoping Iggy is a capable backup and Macks brother haha. Thats not a great situation.
  4. I think the DB's actually are a strength of ours with the Johnson pick. At this point we have 1 pro bowl CB and our CB2 had a 1st round grade. Plus we got the best CB in the CFL as depth, along with Tolliver who I was a big fan of. Add Skrine and the rookie at Nickel and we are pretty deep. While SS is still a question, does anybody in the league have a deeper group of just general DBs??

 

Overall:

I think overall the team improved. We dont mention it much but last year we had a BAD Offseason. Im not sure what the thinking was but we approached last offseason like we had already arrived. This year we approached it with urgency. Im not really as big of a homer as I sound on this post but I really do think we had a great offseason. My only concerns literally are WR and ILB depth. Thats pretty good. Some questions at RB2 but thats it. I legitimately think we are the best team in this division. GB always has the Rodgers advantage but I think we got better than the Vikings.

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Defense:

SS is a big downgrade atm, I actually expect us to make a play for Tony Jefferson in the next few days.

FS/CB are the same..... Johnson might not quite play up to Prince's level immediately, but he probably ends better than Prince was by the end of the season as he acclimates.

OLB we MASSIVELY upgraded with Quinn... I can't even stress how big of an upgrade this was..... Mingo is basically what we had in Floyd and he's our #3 not our #2 now. Rookie might actually get some production just pinning his ears back

DL Same as last year.... Hicks is a concern with his knees and our interior push without him is poor.

MLB Our depth took a big hit, but starters are fine so long as they are physically healthy (and maybe mentally with w/e was going on with Roquan)

 

Offense:

TE:   It can't possibly be worse than last year.... That said, I'm not super optimistic.... I don't like Kmet as a player, and Graham even if he was poorly used in GB is running on fumes. Getting double the overall production should be easy enough, but I don't expect them to actually be contributing at a real level.

QB: Mitch vs Foles I think is a wash.... Mitch sucks, but Foles is less consistent. I think Foles gets the nod just because he'll be better at reading and throwing downfield.... but Foles will throw more picks than Biscuit does (he's actually pretty good about not turning the ball over)

RB: Monty was underutilized last year as a receiving threat... I feel like he could be leaned on like we did Forte in Trestman's offense...... Cohen I think has a bounceback year, but his hands are a major concern given how much he's used as a receiving threat.... I'd actually like to see Cohen be used more as a runner.... just not up the damn middle so many times.... stretch plays/draws/screens or give him a damn lead blocker. I'm not yet impressed by Nall outside of preseason and I'm actually really annoyed we lost Kerrith Whyte last year, he had more potential.

'WR:  This is a bigger problem area than most realize... Gabriel, for all his faults, was a major part of this WR room, and I just can't see Mooney getting that much time on the field. Robinson is good, Miller can't stay healthy, and no one else has stepped up. I'd add that while we're limiting Mooney's time on field, we again have no deep threat. While he is on the field, he has a very high drop rate, as does cohen and those drops are likely to kill drives.

OL: el elephante in the room..... We didn't improve this, and they where goddawful last year at everything, and only piss poor the year before at run blocking....

 

Wildcards:

The 'rona is also going to dramatically impact the offense's ability to practice and gel this offseason, if we have a season at all.

Minnesota and Detroit had good drafts.... GB's was.. odd.... but they are building themselves up to pound the rock, and the packers with a legitimate running game backing up Rodger's arm is a scary thought

 

Conclusion

We are fighting for 3rd or 4th place in the division this year. Nothing of substance was done to the offense, and particularly the offensive line, TE, and WR rooms. The defense will keep things close, and I'm expecting some hilarious things from our defense given a dramatically improved pass rush, and new ballhawking corner depth.... but the defense can't be counted on to score all the points. This is a 6-9 win team as it stands, and half of our games are going to be 1 score victories/losses.

 

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17 minutes ago, Epyon said:

 

Conclusion

We are fighting for 3rd or 4th place in the division this year. Nothing of substance was done to the offense, and particularly the offensive line, TE, and WR rooms. The defense will keep things close, and I'm expecting some hilarious things from our defense given a dramatically improved pass rush, and new ballhawking corner depth.... but the defense can't be counted on to score all the points. This is a 6-9 win team as it stands, and half of our games are going to be 1 score victories/losses.

 

I dont try to be one of those guys but 6-9 is not even 16 games haha.

Besides the point though, 6 wins means you think the team got 2 loses WORSE than last year??! I just dont see how you can think this, GB did nothing, Det had a good draft but are still far out and MIN basically lost Griffin and Waynes without real replacements. Are you just one of those guys who likes to be pessimistic or what?

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MonserinNC said:

I dont try to be one of those guys but 6-9 is not even 16 games haha.

Besides the point though, 6 wins means you think the team got 2 loses WORSE than last year??! I just dont see how you can think this, GB did nothing, Det had a good draft but are still far out and MIN basically lost Griffin and Waynes without real replacements. Are you just one of those guys who likes to be pessimistic or what?

I didn't say 6-9 record, I said 6 to 9 wins. 

Detroit got a running back who can actually run. They've only been garbage for years because they had zero running game. 

Minnesota had arguably a top 3 draft in the entire league. 

And Green Bay's front 7 crushed our OL the past 2 years, while also making investments to be better situated to run the ball. 

Meanwhile our offense has done nothing to improve. Our offensive line is still garbage and we're likely still unable to run the ball.  Our only non Robinson wr is gone, and unlikely to be replaced by Mooney... 

Then defensively were better via Quinn but we're hollowed out depth wise. At safety, MLB, and d line (the layer two of those groups have injury concerns). We'd need another historic season of few to no injury concerns to repeat 2018 vs having something closer to last year...and I just don't think we're a good enough offensive team to make the playoffs on anything less than an absolutely dominant defensive season. 

I'm just not buying this season all coming together in a super optimistic fashion, I think we end up shutting a few teams out while the defense is healthy, but still only win those games with 9 total points or fewer and the majority of our games are going to be single score coin tosses with no epic blowouts. 

Edited by Epyon

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The defense will likely be somewhere between what we saw in 2018 and 2019. Quinn is an upgrade to the pass rush but he will be 30 this season. The secondary is relatively unsettled - that could mean we see an improvement over 2019 but with so many moving parts it's hard to count on anything better than 2018.

The offense is still bad because the QB and OL are bad. Foles is a minor upgrade.

This team simply doesn't match up with some of the better NFC contenders because they won't be able to consistently score points. The best hope for this season is sneaking into the expanded playoffs and hoping Foles goes on another 3-4 game hot streak.

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Jerry Jones crushed this draft.  Now he has to decide whether he wants to over pay his QB.  I think it would have been a baller move to draft Love.  

I kind of chuckled at Fangio for leaving Bears D at its peak to go to a team in total disarray even to be a HC.  But Elway just drafted a lot of exciting players. Their offensive team speed just made them a whole a different team offensively.   Speed kills.

 

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I think this team as constructed is going to be middling/good.  They might make the playoffs but would need magic to make it deep, likely first round exit.  To be wrong I think all of the following have to happen in some form:

 

-The OL gets a suprise star (think Ifedi suddenly being good, or one of the 7th rd OL flyers shows up) OR Castillo reveals that last years garbage was coaching

-We finally settle "Is Foles any good" with a resounding yes OR Trubisky suddenly learns to count linebackers and plays to at least 2018 level

 

My guess is they're good enough to miss out on all the top QBs in 2021 and Pace at least is gone.

 

 

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7 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I think this team as constructed is going to be middling/good.  They might make the playoffs but would need magic to make it deep, likely first round exit.  To be wrong I think all of the following have to happen in some form:

 

-The OL gets a suprise star (think Ifedi suddenly being good, or one of the 7th rd OL flyers shows up) OR Castillo reveals that last years garbage was coaching

-We finally settle "Is Foles any good" with a resounding yes OR Trubisky suddenly learns to count linebackers and plays to at least 2018 level

 

My guess is they're good enough to miss out on all the top QBs in 2021 and Pace at least is gone.

 

 

That is really a pessimistic outlook.  

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Jay Cutler and Kristen (whatever her last name is) are getting a divorce.

Divorce always makes me sad no matter who it is.  

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Posted (edited)

I never saw one episode of their reality show.

In other sad news, I just saw Silvy of Waddle and Silvy has cancer.

 

 

 

Edited by dll2000

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6 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

That is really a pessimistic outlook.  

To reverse engineer it; what has to happen for the Bears to be good next year? I have my keys there, and I don't feel great about the chances.

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12 minutes ago, RunningVaccs said:

I think this team as constructed is going to be middling/good.  They might make the playoffs but would need magic to make it deep, likely first round exit.  To be wrong I think all of the following have to happen in some form:

 

-The OL gets a suprise star (think Ifedi suddenly being good, or one of the 7th rd OL flyers shows up) OR Castillo reveals that last years garbage was coaching

-We finally settle "Is Foles any good" with a resounding yes OR Trubisky suddenly learns to count linebackers and plays to at least 2018 level

 

My guess is they're good enough to miss out on all the top QBs in 2021 and Pace at least is gone.

 

 

I think, while not great, it wouldn’t take a ton to make our O line better.  Lou Holtz used to preach that a lot of winning football is eliminating mistakes.

Our O line made soooo many mistakes last year.  If you can eliminate those they will look completely different. 

I also think Whitehair and Daniels are two of the most talented young OL in the entire league.  Talent doesn’t always translate to great play, it certainly didn’t last year, but they can be very good.  

I think Ifedi is hated because of his mistakes.  His actual play isn’t that bad.  It’s actually good.   It is just interposed with really bad.  

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Just now, RunningVaccs said:

To reverse engineer it; what has to happen for the Bears to be good next year? I have my keys there, and I don't feel great about the chances.

I just meant the last line.  

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