Would you rather have cheap Dalton or expensive Prescott?

[TOUCAN]

I hate this. I'm a Redskins fan and I'm coming here to defend a Cowboys player.

I have such a hard time believing that Dak has been this good just because of the pieces around him. I really do. I still think there's a huge draft bias against him because he was a 4th rounder and not a first rounder. Goff got paid. Wentz got paid. I would rather have Dak over both of them. Even with the weapons (which they just upgraded) you don't get starters of his quality and as reliable as he is just at random. There are teams out there who have absolutely been derailed for long pieces of time because of the inability to settle the position.

Would I pay him 40 million? No. That said, I would easily pay him on par with his contemporaries. He deserves that. Dak is your best chance at winning.

[Kirill]

Cheap Andy Dalton. Use the money to stack the deck and try to have Dalton go the way of Trent Dilfer and become a champion.

[Matts4313]

21 minutes ago, Kirill said:

Cheap Andy Dalton. Use the money to stack the deck and try to have Dalton go the way of Trent Dilfer and become a champion.

Such a horrible short term thinking hot take. 

Whats the plan for 2021 and beyond? Give Dalton (a much worse QB) that $30m/yr contract?

[Kirill]

8 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

Such a horrible short term thinking hot take. 

Whats the plan for 2021 and beyond? Give Dalton (a much worse QB) that $30m/yr contract?

Cycle him out for another 1 year vet. Dak and Goff aren't guys you wanna be paying like they're Joe Montana.

[Matts4313]

11 minutes ago, Kirill said:

Cycle him out for another 1 year vet. Dak and Goff aren't guys you wanna be paying like they're Joe Montana.

lol - Do you know anything about Dak? He is so far ahead  Goff and Wentz its not even funny. The only QB in the last ~20 years who have had a better first 4 years (individual, not team) is Russell Wilson. Though I expect Mahomes/Jackson/Watson to challenge or surpass him. 

Quote

 

						Passing															Rushing					Receiving
Rk	Player	From	To	AV	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A ▼	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Lng	Rec	Yds	TD	Y/R	Lng
1	Dak Prescott	2016	2019	60	64	40-24-0	1363	2071	65.8	15778	97	97.0	90	36	136	826	7.6	7.77	6.77	6.92	241	1221	21	5.1	42	0	0	0		0
2	Jared Goff	2016	2019	43	54	33-21-0	1166	1869	62.4	14219	87	91.9	94	42	106	787	7.6	7.53	6.80	6.73	112	215	6	1.9	22	0	0	0		0
3	Carson Wentz	2016	2019	45	56	32-24-0	1311	2055	63.8	14191	97	92.7	73	35	129	807	6.9	7.08	6.13	6.30	206	785	3	3.8	24	2	11	0	5.5	7
4	Peyton Manning	1998	2001	62	64	32-32-0	1357	2226	61.0	16418	111	85.1	86	81	85	588	7.4	6.74	6.85	6.23	122	408	7	3.3	33	0	0	0		0
5	Tom Brady	2000	2003	36	48	34-12-0	955	1544	61.9	10233	69	85.9	91	38	104	625	6.6	6.41	5.83	5.63	120	216	2	1.8	15	1	23	0	23.0	23
6	Drew Brees	2001	2004	34	43	21-21-0	802	1309	61.3	8772	56	83.2	79	38	65	501	6.7	6.25	6.02	5.59	114	317	3	2.8	22	2	59	1	29.5	38

Every single analytical site out there will tell you he is somewhere between a top 5 to top 10 QB. 

[SmittyBacall]

11 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

Dalton got benched on the worst team in the NFL....

Dalton was benched as a means of tanking a lost season, nothing more. He’s a perfectly average starting NFL QB.

[SmittyBacall]

12 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

2. "Elite Weapons"

1.  2016 was good
2. 2017 Dez was broken and there wasnt a lot behind it
3. 2018 NFL Next gen rated us *DEAD LAST* in seperation. Dak threw the most contested catches. WE WERE WORSE THAN ARIZONA
4. Very good group. Only knocks were 1. Top 3 all got injured and 2. Led the NFL in drops.

Not weapons per se, but where would you rank his offensive line and running game during that stretch?

[Matts4313]

10 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Not weapons per se, but where would you rank his offensive line and running game during that stretch?

OL

2016 = #1 in the NFL

2017 = Very mediocre

2018 = Absolute trash until we fired our OL coach mid season, then better

2019 = Top 10 for sure, probably top 5

 

Run game

2016 = #1 in the NFL

2017 = Good not great

2018 = Top 10, possibly top 5

2019 = Top 10, possibly top 5

 

I will say this - if you dont know - I am big into advanced analyticals. Every analytical site in the world will tell you the same thing: Run Game does not improve your QB. For example, Zeke only commanded a loaded box 17% of the time last year. Thats ranked #24... Meaning 23 other RBs drew a loaded box more often. Teams were scared of Dak, not Zeke. 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Matts4313

[TVScout]

There are 2 problems with this scenario:

1) Going with Dalton won't save enough cap room to sign those GOAT defensive players. How much does JJ Watt earn?

2) There is no proof those players can even be signed. Is JJ Watt available?

[SmittyBacall]

56 minutes ago, Matts4313 said:

OL

2016 = #1 in the NFL

2017 = Very mediocre

2018 = Absolute trash until we fired our OL coach mid season, then better

2019 = Top 10 for sure, probably top 5

Allow me to poke the bear a bit, out of sheer offseason boredom. Seeing as you’re a fan of analytics you may appreciate (or at least entertain) the following PFF ratings. They’ve ranked the Cowboys OL grading as the following over the last 4 years:

2019 - 5th

2018 - 15th (not exactly “trash”, relative to the league - maybe to Dallas’ standards)

2017 - 4th

2016 - 2nd

Overall, they’re routinely ranked as one of the top pass/run blocking units in the league since Dak entered the league. I don’t have the full slate of metrics handy, but obviously having a clean pocket and adequate pass protection promotes better QB play (that can vary from player-to-player depending on how they withstand playing under pressure). Take this chart for example: 

It’s interesting to note the substantial drop off is in Dak’s passer rating when under pressure. From my experience the better QBs in this league thrive or at least maintain their QBing capabilities under pressure. Is there an explanation for that? Maybe there is one I’m not aware of.

1 hour ago, Matts4313 said:

Run game

2016 = #1 in the NFL

2017 = Good not great

2018 = Top 10, possibly top 5

2019 = Top 10, possibly top 5

I will say this - if you dont know - I am big into advanced analyticals. Every analytical site in the world will tell you the same thing: Run Game does not improve your QB. For example, Zeke only commanded a loaded box 17% of the time last year. Thats ranked #24... Meaning 23 other RBs drew a loaded box more often. Teams were scared of Dak, not Zeke. 

Fair enough. What do the analytics say about play success (passing) vs. 3rd and short, and 3rd and long? I’d be interested to see any if they exist. Naturally I’d assume a successful running team sees more 3rd and shorts, opening up the playbook and making things easier for the QB. But I’m just spit-balling here. I mean, look at what Tannehill was able to accomplish for the first time in his career under the leagues best rushing attack. His passer rating to finish the year lead the league at 117.5 (!) - an absurd number. Everything in my being refuses to believe the bolded but I’m open minded.

I guess my point is that I’m not ready to call Dak anything more than an above-average QB (in and around the top 10). When I watch him I don’t see much about him that makes me think “Man, he’s special”, or is deserved of being vaulted into top 5 status. This is going to grind your gears, but even someone like Wentz has wow’d me more by carrying that injury-plagued team during the final stretch of 2019. That’s the kind of adversity I value and am impressed by.

Look, I’m not privy to the idea that Dak is simply an average QB and a byproduct of a great supporting cast, but I’m also not inclined to believe the argument he is analytically (pushed as objectively) a top 5-10 QB without at least somewhat considering the plus environment he plays in. It certainly helps. I’ve seen it before with Dalton. He went from league average to MVP consideration with a mega-supporting cast. It matters quite a bit.

[Matts4313]

@SmittyBacall => I was referring to pass blocking. If you look at things like sack %, it was ~10% in 2018 and dropped to ~3.5% in 2019. I used to know the PFF and F.O. rankings off the top of my head, but they were terrible in '17 and '18. Run blocking was still solid though.

 

Do you have the pass block #s?

[SmittyBacall]

1 minute ago, Matts4313 said:

@SmittyBacall => I was referring to pass blocking. If you look at things like sack %, it was ~10% in 2018 and dropped to ~3.5% in 2019. I used to know the PFF and F.O. rankings off the top of my head, but they were terrible in '17 and '18. Run blocking was still solid though.

 

Do you have the pass block #s?

I signed up for PFF yesterday. Still have no idea how to navigate this thing. Where can I find unit grades (e.g. OL).

[Matts4313]

Just now, SmittyBacall said:

I signed up for PFF yesterday. Still have no idea how to navigate this thing. Where can I find unit grades (e.g. OL).

When you click on the team OL, it will have 3 grades. OVL (overall) RB and PB. For example I want to say (could be wrong) in 2018 the Cowboys were #5 in runblocking and #22 in pass blocking. 

[Drained]

On 5/6/2020 at 9:44 PM, SDotNova said:

Dalton plus $25M worth of FA is better than Dak. This is not even factoring that if they trade Dak, they’re probably getting 2 1st and some.

Not even getting a 2nd. He's on the franchise tag. That means hes basically a one year loan worth 32 million or whatever his tag is worth.

[Drained]

If you can pay Jared Goff money for having the same production as Dak, the only difference is a more competent coaching staff, then why can't you pay Dak? Cause Goff went to a SB and got exposed? I'm confused.

Also just a friendly reminder QB's that we consider "average" like Kirk Cousins reset the market all the time.