Would you rather have cheap Dalton or expensive Prescott?

[Matts4313]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Allow me to poke the bear a bit, out of sheer offseason boredom. Seeing as you’re a fan of analytics you may appreciate (or at least entertain) the following PFF ratings. They’ve ranked the Cowboys OL grading as the following over the last 4 years:

2019 - 5th

2018 - 15th (not exactly “trash”, relative to the league - maybe to Dallas’ standards)

2017 - 4th

2016 - 2nd

Overall, they’re routinely ranked as one of the top pass/run blocking units in the league since Dak entered the league. I don’t have the full slate of metrics handy, but obviously having a clean pocket and adequate pass protection promotes better QB play (that can vary from player-to-player depending on how they withstand playing under pressure). Take this chart for example: 

We will comeback to this point. But just wanted to say there is no chart. 

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It’s interesting to note the substantial drop off is in Dak’s passer rating when under pressure. From my experience the better QBs in this league thrive or at least maintain their QBing capabilities under pressure. Is there an explanation for that? Maybe there is one I’m not aware of.

Dak was amazing in 2016. Most people dont remember this, but in Wentz's "MVP" 2017, Dak was actually statistically the same the first 8 games of the season. Game 9 was against the Falcons. They sacked Dak 8 times and must have hit him about 100 more times. Its was BRUTAL. You will never, ever convince me he didnt get concussed. Either way, Dak developed a severe case of the yips. Dak himself admitted it wasnt until about halfway through 2018 (a year later) that he started feeling comfortable in the pocket again. 

Anyways, going into 2018 we hired a new OL coach. He tried to change our blocking scheme. To start of 2018, Dak was getting hit almost every single dropback. LIS we were rated one of the absolute worst OL's in the NFL at the bye. During the bye we fire our OL coach and hire 2 new guys to run it and return to what works. OL improves tremendously + getting cooper, and voila Dak goes back to playing like a top 10 QB.  

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Fair enough. What do the analytics say about play success (passing) vs. 3rd and short, and 3rd and long? I’d be interested to see any if they exist. Naturally I’d assume a successful running team sees more 3rd and shorts, opening up the playbook and making things easier for the QB. But I’m just spit-balling here. I mean, look at what Tannehill was able to accomplish for the first time in his career under the leagues best rushing attack. His passer rating to finish the year lead the league at 117.5 (!) - an absurd number. Everything in my being refuses to believe the bolded but I’m open minded.

Essentially it they say:

1. Running backs are interchangeable
2. The most useful aspect of a RB is situational (short yardage, goalline, etc)
3. That passing > running
   1. Play action passing is #1 way to move offense
   2. RB doesnt matter for playaction to work. Just the threat of the run

So essentially you dont need a Zeke/Barkley/Henry to win in the league. They are interchangeable and their most important skill is situational. The Titans appear to be the exception to the rule because Derrick had loaded box 50% of his snaps. Very rare.

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I guess my point is that I’m not ready to call Dak anything more than an above-average QB (in and around the top 10). When I watch him I don’t see much about him that makes me think “Man, he’s special”, or is deserved of being vaulted into top 5 status. This is going to grind your gears, but even someone like Wentz has wow’d me more by carrying that injury-plagued team during the final stretch of 2019. That’s the kind of adversity I value and am impressed by.

Wentz has lead the NFL in passes thrown 5 yards or less in the 3 of his 4 years in the NFL. Dude is checkdown king who only throws to TEs and RBs. People are wowed by his one 9 game stretch in 2017 & his #2 overall draft pick. But 4 years in and Dak is better in everything statistically. 

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Look, I’m not privy to the idea that Dak is simply an average QB and a byproduct of a great supporting cast, but I’m also not inclined to believe the argument he is analytically (pushed as objectively) a top 5-10 QB without at least somewhat considering the plus environment he plays in. It certainly helps. I’ve seen it before with Dalton. He went from league average to MVP consideration with a mega-supporting cast. It matters quite a bit.

Wentz and Goff have been in equally or better situations. Why is Dak killing them both statistically? Plenty of guys have been in favorable situations and have not done as well as Dak.

Edited May 8, 2020 by Matts4313

[LeotheLion]

14 minutes ago, Drained said:

If you can pay Jared Goff money for having the same production as Dak, the only difference is a more competent coaching staff, then why can't you pay Dak? Cause Goff went to a SB and got exposed? I'm confused.

I would pay Dak but Goff was coming off a really strong 2 year run. Dak has never strung 2 good years together. Though I think his 2019 season alone is worthy of a 35M/year deal.

[Matts4313]

@SmittyBacall=> Here is the PFF rating for 2018

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22. DALLAS COWBOYS

2018 pass-blocking efficiency: 84.1

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Four seasons ago, the Cowboys' line was in the discussion for being among the best to ever walk out on to a football field – but pieces have drifted away one-by-one over the years until Tyron Smith and Zack Martin were the only ones left. The Cowboys allowed 26 sacks, 23 hits and 120 hurries on 612 regular-season passing plays in 2018, and that resulted in a pass-blocking efficiency of 84.1 – their worst mark as a team since 2012.

FO had us rated as the #27 pass blocking in 2018.

We were terrible.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is PFF's grade in 2017:

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16. DALLAS COWBOYS

2017 pass-blocking efficiency: 78.5

Best individual PBE: Zack Martin, 98.4

The Dallas Cowboys saw a drop off in production in 2017, having lost Ronald Leary and Doug Free prior to the season and left tackle Tyron Smith missing time due to injury. They allowed 19 sacks, 26 hits and 108 hurries on their 555 passing plays. Despite the cumulative setback, right guard Zack Martin continued his dominant play, as he allowed just 11 total pressures on 531 pass-block snaps, resulting in the highest pass-blocking efficiency among guards at 98.4. Heading into the 2018 season, the Cowboys hope that second-round pick Connor Williams can replace the production that was lost by guard Ronald Leary, as Williams allowed just 27 pressures on 932 pass-block snaps over the last three years at the University Of Texas. Where Williams plays in addition to their potential moves of La'el Collins is another story, and one that should be ironed out before Week 1 if they want to vault up this list.

 

Edited May 8, 2020 by Matts4313

[Joe_is_the_best]

Dak is a much better QB, but at $40 million? Naw.

The poll is kind of a false choice though.

[///mcompact]

Change the poll to the more honest option of:

”Pay Dak $34-$35M”

and you’ll get a more honest poll.  
 

All of this “$40M” fake hot take originated from Jane “Hot take” Slater and was instantly disputed from Dak’s agent to no avail. 
 

The rumor for hold up the past couple of months is the length of contract (4vs5 years).  

Edited May 8, 2020 by ///mcompact

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Extending Dak isnt the worst idea, but extending him for 40M is a horrible idea

[lancerman]

On 5/5/2020 at 3:33 PM, J-ALL-DAY said:

Give me Dak, the clear better QB. Eventually with a 17 game season the cap will rise to 240M and above. At that point Dak will be making around 13-15% of the team's cap space. Which is perfectly reasonable all things considered. Would I pay Dak 40M? Well no, but he will be getting around 33M or so. I'm fine with that price tag for a Pro Bowl cal

Honestly it’s actually not reasonable . There’s a lot of evidence that cap percentage of the QB effects the ability to win a title. 
 

The only QB to win at a 13% hit was Steve Young. That was the very first year of the salary cap so that’s a bit of an outlier. 
 

The highest cap hit since then for a QB to win the SB is 11.7 (Eli in 2011). With only 5 other QB’s to win the SB having double digit Cap hits. Everyone else is single digits. There’s more QB’s with sub 5% hits than QB’s with greater than 10% hits to win SB’s 

Dak taking up 13-15% is pretty much a non starter. Even legends like Brady, Peyton Manning, Farve, Rodgers, Brees, Warner weren’t able to take up that much cap and win 

[TheGame316]

21 hours ago, ///mcompact said:

Change the poll to the more honest option of:

”Pay Dak $34-$35M”

and you’ll get a more honest poll.  
 

All of this “$40M” fake hot take originated from Jane “Hot take” Slater and was instantly disputed from Dak’s agent to no avail. 
 

The rumor for hold up the past couple of months is the length of contract (4vs5 years).  

That question is disingenuous though

"Pay Dak like his contemporaries, Goff and Wentz" - We've Tried!

"Pay Dak 35 Milion per"

Dak, as rumored, has been offered 5 year 168 (33.6 per) with 106 Guaranteed - He has said No. That's more than Wentz and Goff and less than Wilson (Superbowl QB)

Dak wants 4 year 140 (35 per) with 106 guaranteed - Less years, same guarantees

The key with the 4 year deal, is after 3 years Dak wants to jack the team for an extension and another raise, and with the cap going up that first year will start with a 4 and he'll want another 100+ million in guarantees put in his pocket. Given how he's handled this negotiation, what do you suppose one will look like going forward? Are the Cowboys interested in doing this again in 3 years?

So from Dak's point of view 4 years means 106 guaranteed and 140 total in the bank, and after the 3rd year a renegotiation and another 40 million + put on the start of the new contract and 100 million more up front

Dak's deal puts at least 240 Million(minimum) in his pocket in 5 calendar years (potentially in 4 years if he re-ups after 3 seasons), The Cowboys offer puts 168 Million into his pocket in 5 calendar years. That's the difference

Edited May 9, 2020 by TheGame316

[Matts4313]

3 hours ago, lancerman said:

Honestly it’s actually not reasonable . There’s a lot of evidence that cap percentage of the QB effects the ability to win a title. 
 

The only QB to win at a 13% hit was Steve Young. That was the very first year of the salary cap so that’s a bit of an outlier. 
 

The highest cap hit since then for a QB to win the SB is 11.7 (Eli in 2011). With only 5 other QB’s to win the SB having double digit Cap hits. Everyone else is single digits. There’s more QB’s with sub 5% hits than QB’s with greater than 10% hits to win SB’s 

Dak taking up 13-15% is pretty much a non starter. Even legends like Brady, Peyton Manning, Farve, Rodgers, Brees, Warner weren’t able to take up that much cap and win 

This is a fake narrative.

1. % of the cap changes dramatically from year to year
2. It can be manipulated easily by restructures
3. Cap goes up each year.

 

Most QBs who make a superbowl are on a second contract. MANY QBs who have won a superbowl signed "the highest paid contract of all time" - - - including Brady and both Mannings. 

[SmittyBacall]

On 5/8/2020 at 1:11 PM, Matts4313 said:

But just wanted to say there is no chart. 

On 5/8/2020 at 1:11 PM, Matts4313 said:

Essentially it they say:

1. Running backs are interchangeable
2. The most useful aspect of a RB is situational (short yardage, goalline, etc)
3. That passing > running
   1. Play action passing is #1 way to move offense
   2. RB doesnt matter for playaction to work. Just the threat of the run

I've seen stuff like this before, but I don't see how those points negate whether or not an effective running game improves QB play. Any QB in the NFL would take having an effective running game over not having one.

On 5/8/2020 at 1:11 PM, Matts4313 said:

Wentz has lead the NFL in passes thrown 5 yards or less in the 3 of his 4 years in the NFL. Dude is checkdown king who only throws to TEs and RBs.

Source on this? That's never how I've seen Wentz.

On 5/8/2020 at 1:11 PM, Matts4313 said:

People are wowed by his one 9 game stretch in 2017 & his #2 overall draft pick.

Nah, he was very impressive down the stretch last year. I've liked him for a while.

On 5/8/2020 at 1:11 PM, Matts4313 said:

Wentz and Goff have been in equally or better situations. Why is Dak killing them both statistically? Plenty of guys have been in favorable situations and have not done as well as Dak.

Fair point, but I'm not claiming either of those guys have a top 5-10 argument like you are with Dak. I think they're all on that same tier. 

[Matts4313]

45 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

I assume thats 2018? Which Ive already addressed (Yips, Terrible OL, NFL Next Gen's worst WRs at getting open). Do you have 2019?

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I've seen stuff like this before, but I don't see how those points negate whether or not an effective running game improves QB play. Any QB in the NFL would take having an effective running game over not having one.

Here are some links to run v pass information:

Run game and play action

Run and pass - there effect on winning

Why RB's (Zeke) are replaceable

Each one of those kinda address your point. I used to have a link directly for QB performance and the run game but I cant seem to find it.

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Source on this? That's never how I've seen Wentz.

Its an analytical thing that gets posted on Reddit after every season. The closest thing I could find in a 30 second google search is the NFL Next Gen that has his average intended air yards at 7.9. Which is like ~25th. He is well known in NFC E circles as check down Carson. He *loves* his TE's to the point that his WR's have gone to the media multiple times to complain about him (both his QB style and his personality) 

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Nah, he was very impressive down the stretch last year. I've liked him for a while.

Dude, he played 4 games against some of the absolute worst competition in the NFL. Teams picking top 5 in the draft. And that includes the Cowboys team that limped into Philly. He should have, and did, beat all those teams. Its not knocking him. He cant control the schedule. Im knocking how bad those teams were.

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Fair point, but I'm not claiming either of those guys have a top 5-10 argument like you are with Dak. I think they're all on that same tier. 

I think Dak has pulled away just a little bit. Going into last year I had Wentz #10 and Dak #11. Without over thinking it, I would spitball Dak 8ish and Wentz ~12ish. Im not sure if Goff is in my top 15. But I started souring on him about mid 2017. 

Edited May 9, 2020 by Matts4313

[Calvert28]

Brought this up in another thread.

But if Dak is being so stingy and petty about a 1 year difference on this contract then there is little reason to believe he won't be if the team wants to restructure. Others will have you believe that restructures are easy to do, but thats only when the player is open to conceding things. Dak hasn't exactly shown that this year from rumors on the contract negotiations, its been the same thing since day 1. 4 yrs/35M a year.

So while that brings an enormous amount of cap filler also consider that even if he does agree to backloaded contract, at best you get 2 years of more manageable cap space especially if its a contract with over a 100m Gtd or 105 to be exact by rumors.  By the end of it the contract could be hitting 45 million for the last 2 years if we are able to move at least 10 off each of the first 2 years. With the way our contracts for other players we are in a win now mentality as in a right now this year with our best cap space possible. 2021 will get a little worse then 2022 is when all of the big contracts really start collecting not to mention we will have to decide whether to resign LVE and Gallup. So really anything after 2021 is up in the air cause either we will seriously have to restructure or start cutting players. 

On the flip side of that later problem we also have a problem with the win now scenario. So our team have still yet to sign a formidable DE like we had in Quinn. Not to mention we have missed out on all FA CB talent to even come close to replacing Jones. All we really have in terms of starting CB play is Diggs who is still developing and a rookie then at DE Lawrence is coming off his worse season and thats when he was playing opposite Quinn who did an insane amount of damage last year with sacks and pressures. 

So still barring a true No1 corner and RE not to mention only 5 or 6 coaches I think have won the super bowl their first year with the team. Do people think the Cowboys are the favorites to win the SB this year? I would think not. I again would argue against 2022 and 2023 as well when we will have 4 major contracts to take care of in the next 2 years(Chido, Lewis, Gallup, LVE). Which only leaves 2021 as our best shot for these players to develop and contribute before we need to start cleaning house which will eventually have to happen. 

Dak who took a huge step forward this year may be worth 35 million even if it is a little over payed. But not on a 4 yr contract. It should come as no surprise as to why the Jones's refuse to let him be on such a short contract, it will essentially strangle us. Dak who has yet to prove anything on the big stage is just to worth that type of risk. 

The real question, is Dak worth 4/35m? Unless someone here can throw out some scenarios that are not completely out of acid trip left field ideas on how you could make a contract like that work. The answer would be hexs not worth it under these conditions. 

[TheGame316]

10 minutes ago, Calvert28 said:

Brought this up in another thread.

But if Dak is being so stingy and petty about a 1 year difference on this contract then there is little reason to believe he won't be if the team wants to restructure. Others will have you believe that restructures are easy to do, but thats only when the player is open to conceding things. Dak hasn't exactly shown that this year from rumors on the contract negotiations, its been the same thing since day 1. 4 yrs/35M a year.

So while that brings an enormous amount of cap filler also consider that even if he does agree to backloaded contract, at best you get 2 years of more manageable cap space especially if its a contract with over a 100m Gtd or 105 to be exact by rumors.  By the end of it the contract could be hitting 45 million for the last 2 years if we are able to move at least 10 off each of the first 2 years. With the way our contracts for other players we are in a win now mentality as in a right now this year with our best cap space possible. 2021 will get a little worse then 2022 is when all of the big contracts really start collecting not to mention we will have to decide whether to resign LVE and Gallup. So really anything after 2021 is up in the air cause either we will seriously have to restructure or start cutting players. 

On the flip side of that later problem we also have a problem with the win now scenario. So our team have still yet to sign a formidable DE like we had in Quinn. Not to mention we have missed out on all FA CB talent to even come close to replacing Jones. All we really have in terms of starting CB play is Diggs who is still developing and a rookie then at DE Lawrence is coming off his worse season and thats when he was playing opposite Quinn who did an insane amount of damage last year with sacks and pressures. 

So still barring a true No1 corner and RE not to mention only 5 or 6 coaches I think have won the super bowl their first year with the team. Do people think the Cowboys are the favorites to win the SB this year? I would think not. I again would argue against 2022 and 2023 as well when we will have 4 major contracts to take care of in the next 2 years(Chido, Lewis, Gallup, LVE). Which only leaves 2021 as our best shot for these players to develop and contribute before we need to start cleaning house which will eventually have to happen. 

Dak who took a huge step forward this year may be worth 35 million even if it is a little over payed. But not on a 4 yr contract. It should come as no surprise as to why the Jones's refuse to let him be on such a short contract, it will essentially strangle us. Dak who has yet to prove anything on the big stage is just to worth that type of risk. 

The real question, is Dak worth 4/35m? Unless someone here can throw out some scenarios that are not completely out of acid trip left field ideas on how you could make a contract like that work. The answer would be hexs not worth it under these conditions. 

Dak and his agent know this part

The Cowboys would be cap strapped and needing their highest cap hit guy (Dak@45+Million) to renegotiate. So 3 years in, Dak will want a new contract with another 100+ Million guaranteed, and probably a salary starting at 40-45 Million in Year 1

The Cowboys 5 year 168 Million dollar offer puts 168 Million into Dak's pocket in 5 years

Dak's proposal would put 140 Million in the first 4 years, but after year 3 restructure The Cowboys would likely have to guarantee another 100+ Million to Dak on an extension, putting the 4 year guaranteed payout number closer to $240 Million

Dak knows this, but more importantly, So to the Jones's

[Jakuvious]

19 hours ago, Matts4313 said:

I assume thats 2018? Which Ive already addressed (Yips, Terrible OL, NFL Next Gen's worst WRs at getting open). Do you have 2019?

The chart includes Kyler Murray and Gardner Minshew. It's pretty definitely 2019.

[Jakuvious]

20 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Pure curiosity, what's the source for this chart? I'm curious what plays they're omitting entirely. Just because, per the chart, Wilson has a higher QB rating when pressured and when not pressured than he does overall. On the flip side, Jackson has a worse QB rating when pressured and not than he does overall. Which isn't statistically possible if the chart is comprehensive. So some plays must be missing from this, for some reason or another. So not sure if they're just counting passes from the pocket, or if they're taking out plays that are kind of on the line, or what, but this definitely doesn't include all plays.