Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[Dolmonite26]

51 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said:

Ok this might be pushing it. Matt Ryan had a career year last year, but the main reason was his INT numbers went down.. he still has averaged 65% comp, 93.8 QBR, 25+ TD's a year,  and throwing for over 4,000 yards every single year. If he can win a Superbowl in his career he probably has a shot at the HOF some day.

If Case could come and play like Matt Ryan every year you could call him the franchise QB.

I wasnt comparing the two as players.  I was just comparing the two on the idea of extended stretch runs of great play, that eventually turns into them returning to the same player they've been for there careers.

For Ryan, that's still being a very good QB not a great one.  For Keenum it's being a career backup. I only point it out, because some in Viking fandom have tried to argue the "what if" in terms of Keenum finally figuring it out and that this stretch of great play is actually who he really is. It quite clearly isn't.

[gopherwrestler]

That is true, but I hate to say the word weapons for Case and use that excuse, but he really didn't have the weapons to save him. Thielen & Diggs have made Case. While they are dinking around catching everything it has helped him be able to spread it around to McKinnon and Rudolph.

Of course he is playing our of his normal mean, but with talent around him I think his normal mean would increase to a better QB than what his original averaged where.

I don't think the players on this offense allow him to return to the Texans/Rams #'s, but a fall off would not be shocking.

This is where I don't think it's fair to compare him to a player like Matt Ryan.

[CriminalMind]

There's "what if" questions for both Case and Teddy. However, Case is cooking right now, and Teddy is waiting for his chance this season, that might now come.

Just imagine if Bradford is deemed fully healthy after week 17 & we get 13 days until the first playoff game at home.

[Dolmonite26]

3 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

There's "what if" questions for both Case and Teddy. However, Case is cooking right now, and Teddy is waiting for his chance this season, that might now come.

Just imagine if Bradford is deemed fully healthy after week 17 & we get 13 days until the first playoff game at home.

Of course there's a what if for Teddy. Its also a bet with good odds.

"Does a 25 year old QB deliver on the demonstrable promise he showed as 21 and 22 year old?"

Vs.

"Has this 29 year old career backup become a high level starter?"

See the difference? Play the odds my friend.

[SemperFeist]

No chance I’d play Bradford in the playoffs with nearly a full season, and practice missed. 

[CriminalMind]

2 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

No chance I’d play Bradford in the playoffs with nearly a full season, and practice missed. 

I wouldn't start him for sure. Case starts. Backup? Theres always a possibility for that.

 

[gopherwrestler]

1 minute ago, Dolmonite26 said:

Of course there's a what if for Teddy. Its also a bet with good odds.

"Does a 25 year old QB (with a multi-ligament knee surgery where he almost lost his leg due to the injury) deliver on the demonstrable promise he showed as 21 and 22 year old?"

Vs.

"Has this 29 year old career backup, while playing one teams with little to no talent, become a high level starter with a team full of talent?"

See the difference? Play the odds my friend.

FIFY

I mean yes, I do have faith in Teddy, probably has a better chance at being better than Teddy, but there is no chance in hell I'm just going to gamble and take Case out this year.

Heck, I don't even mind if we somehow could Win the Super Bowl and let Case walk this offseason.

 

I actually don't mind if we won the Superbowl this year and went 0-16 next year.... I'd do a lot to see us win a Super Bowl

[CriminalMind]

10 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

Of course there's a what if for Teddy. Its also a bet with good odds.

"Does a 25 year old QB deliver on the demonstrable promise he showed as 21 and 22 year old?"

Vs.

"Has this 29 year old career backup become a high level starter?"

See the difference? Play the odds my friend.

It's more like:

A) 25 year old QB, who was marginal for 2 years in the league as a starter, coming off a massive injury and not taken a meaningful snap in 2 years, with no future financial commitment.

B) 29 year old QB, who was marginal for 3\4 years in league, coming off a career year and posting top 5-10 league wide QB stats, developed chemistry with targets & offense and leading Vikings to playoff bye and beyond, with no future financial commitment.

See the full picture.

[Dolmonite26]

5 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

It's more like:

A) 25 year old QB, who was marginal for 2 years in the league as a starter, coming off a massive injury and not taken a meaningful snap in 2 years, with no future financial commitment.

B) 29 year old QB, who was marginal for 3\4 years in league, coming off a career year and posting top 5-10 league wide QB stats, developed chemistry with targets & offense and leading Vikings to playoff bye and beyond, with no future financial commitment.

See the full picture.

Frame it however you want man.  You've had blinders on when it comes to Teddy for a long time now, and I'm certainly not going to try and change it now...not worth the time

[Dolmonite26]

13 minutes ago, gopherwrestler said:

I mean yes, I do have faith in Teddy, probably has a better chance at being better than Teddy, but there is no chance in hell I'm just going to gamble and take Case out this year.

To be clear, I agree about Case being better in the short term.  But I would just keep playing it week by week at this point.

[Worm Guts]

19 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

I wouldn't start him for sure. Case starts. Backup? Theres always a possibility for that.

 

If Bradford comes back, he’s 3rd in line. Teddy will have been practicing for months at that point. Why would Sam jump him when he hasn’t practiced for months?

[Krauser]

3 hours ago, CriminalMind said:

If the bubble doesn't burst, and Keenum takes us into late Jan\early Feb games... which is still a very probable scenario, and Pat doesn't take HC interviews, you got to think management will think extremely highly of Case. Ziggy, Rick & Pat in the locker room congratulating Case with excitement that they have not had since 2009.

Under that scenario, no one will fault upper management with going with Case on a big one year deal, over Teddy. And then using that 29th-32nd pick on a QB (like a Baker Mayfield) who can learn the ropes while sitting.

It’s not a probable scenario. 

The way Keenum was playing just a month ago (Packers and Ravens games) would be a recipe for one and done in the playoffs, especially against NO or PHI, or even CAR, ATL, DET or SEA — teams with franchise QBs and strong pass defenses. Rule of thumb in the playoffs is that the team with the better QB usually wins. Maybe Keenum could beat Goff and the Rams again, I’m not sure they’re as good as their record. The Vikings defense is good but they’re not the 2015 Broncos where they can carry a limited QB to win it all. 

The only way Keenum is winning games in January is if he keeps playing as well as he has since the bye. Problem is, this is the first 3-game stretch in his career that he’s been this good. He’s had a few good games in his career but he’s mostly been a bad QB, not even mediocre. Really hard to believe that his unprecedented and very recent improvement is a real change in his actual talent level, not a mirage. If this is just a hot streak, and he goes back to his usual career performance level, the Vikings would be liable to lose one or more of their easier last 3 games (CIN/@GB/CHI), let alone a NFCCG or a Super Bowl. 

21 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

There's "what if" questions for both Case and Teddy. However, Case is cooking right now, and Teddy is waiting for his chance this season, that might now come.

Just imagine if Bradford is deemed fully healthy after week 17 & we get 13 days until the first playoff game at home.

I guess I can imagine lots of things. Maybe Sharrif Floyd will be back for the playoffs too.

Can you imagine Bridgewater being healthy again (looks like he is) and playing like he did in 2014-15, or even better as it looked like he was on track to do in 2016? Can you imagine Zimmer — who said after the injury and the trade for Bradford, “I want Teddy, I don’t want him going anywhere else” — won’t give him a chance to play again at some point? Can you imagine that Spielman, who lives and dies by his draft picks, won’t try to retain him somehow?

[Krauser]

18 minutes ago, CriminalMind said:

It's more like:

A) 25 year old QB, who was marginal for 2 years in the league as a starter, coming off a massive injury and not taken a meaningful snap in 2 years, with no future financial commitment.

B) 29 year old QB, who was marginal for 3\4 years in league, coming off a career year and posting top 5-10 league wide QB stats, developed chemistry with targets & offense and leading Vikings to playoff bye and beyond, with no future financial commitment.

See the full picture.

The massive injury only matters if he doesn’t recover from it. Based on what we’ve seen with Teddy moving in warmups and practice, and based on reports from within the team, looks like he did recover from it. 

The gap in his career shouldn’t be a long term problem, though I agree it could affect who plays in the playoffs this year (hard to give Teddy a start in the playoffs if he hasn’t played yet). Teddy’s still the same age as Wentz, and roughly the same age as Keenum was as a rookie. If he’s physically healthy, ni reason to think he won’t be able to get back on track mentally, especially since he’s been so consistent with his work ethic all along. 

Calling both 2013-16 Keenum and 2014-15 Bridgewater “marginal” is way too kind to Keenum and way too harsh on Bridgewater. Again, Keenum had the worst total QBR in the league last year. Teddy’s boxscore stats were never great, but he played well, and won a lot of respect as a starter including from his head coach, who still happens to be the head coach of the team  

Keenum leading this team deep into the playoffs is very hard to imagine, but I guess that where your head’s at. I’ll be cheering for him. 

[CriminalMind]

I'm not some Teddy hater here. He was my choice for top QB available in his draft class, and thought we got gold when we moved up and got him with the final pick of the 1st round.

His 1st year was marginal to me, but I was fine with that. Cause I had hope for an impressive 2nd year increase. I personally only saw a small bump in play overall, with a good finish. When the 3rd year was coming along I was hoping for consistent average QB (on the league) play from Teddy, knowing if we got that, we could be in the SB. So I even bet on Vikings to win nfccg and the betting odds were favorable. Then the Teddy injury happened, and GM Rick saw the potential in the team to win the SB with good ish QB play, so he gave up the 1st rounder for Bradford and rolled the dice. Injuries basically derailed last season, but Rick was not wrong in his thought process.

As for Case, when he was signed, I wasn't that impressed with him. I even wondered if he'll be 3rd string here behind, the once potential Taylor Heinkie.

Now Case is playing great. Even better then I had expected in Teddy's what-if "3rd year", so it's going to be hard for to return to Teddy if Case continues his strong play thru to our home playoff games.

[vike daddy]

Keenum has taken only seven sacks in the 9½ games he has played – taking two sacks against Detroit on Thanksgiving – but he was also pressured often against the Lions.

According to the analytics site Pro Football Focus, Keenum was pressured on 51.4 percent of his dropbacks, but he went 7-for-13 for 106 yards, a touchdown and a passer rating of 106.6 on those plays in which he was pressured. That included one dropped pass.

https://scout.com/nfl/vikings/Article/Minnesota-Vikings-QB-Case-Keenum-keeps-starting-job-for-now-110979905