Can a Case be made for Keenum...?

[Purplexing]

On 11/25/2017 at 2:09 AM, Krauser said:

1. Again, I do think it's just a hot streak, and Keenum will eventually look more like the 2015/16 version of himself, or even the version of himself from October this year. 

2. If healthy, which he seems to be, I think Teddy is a better QB than Keenum had ever been until recently.

3. If and when it does, Teddy Bridgewater will be back as the starting QB.

 

1. There isn't enough evidence to think CK will cool off from a hot streak of mid 90's QBR/ Passer rating.  A hot streak, to me, is 110+ QB ratings.  Ups & downs yield a mid 90s rating for 2017, which is warm or very warm, not hot.  The high variance of his week to week ratings means the data is insufficient to conclude he'll drop from a mid 90s rating.  IOW, you can throw out outliers to stabilize projections, but many of CKs games are outliers, high and low.  Censoring the data in that manner leaves too little to draw reliable conclusions.

2. I'm not sure any of us know how mobile TB will be, which is different from 'healthy' .  He relied on mobility in the past, and we can't assume the same until we see it in the near future.

3. Trivial point; if top QB is injured or foul's up consistently, the backup QB must play.

[SemperFeist]

36 minutes ago, Purplexing said:

Ummm.... Roger Staubach, Steve Young, Brad Johnson, Brett Favre, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, ... there must be more, but I haven't had enough caffeine this am.

Every one you just named played at a high level within their first few years of play. 

They didn’t have 4-5 years of terrible to bad play before they reached mediocrity. 

[Dolmonite26]

7 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

Every one you just named played at a high level within their first few years of play. 

They didn’t have 4-5 years of terrible to bad play before they reached mediocrity. 

Oh cool someone got to it before me!

I mean Purplexing, you chastise cherry picking stats (most posters aren't CPicking one or two stats like you claim btw), but then here you are blatantly cherry picking.

[Dolmonite26]

35 minutes ago, Purplexing said:

There isn't enough evidence to think CK will cool off from a hot streak of mid 90's QBR/ Passer rating.  A hot streak, to me, is 110+ QB ratings.  Ups & downs yield a mid 90s rating for 2017, which is warm or very warm, not hot.  The high variance of his week to week ratings means the data is insufficient to conclude he'll drop from a mid 90s rating.  IOW, you can throw out outliers to stabilize projections, but many of CKs games are outliers, high and low.  Censoring the data in that manner leaves too little to draw reliable conclusions.

There is a 3 game sample of a player that far exceeds anything he has done in his career to date, both statically and performance wise, but it's not an outlier or a hot streak?...ok

The majority of Case's games he performed in the low to high 70s in passer rating.  With a wide ranging standard deviation proving he is prone to a high variance in play, which both proves that he's likely to regress and that he isn't a reliable starter (as in, not a long term answer).

Ride him out, hopefully the division is clinched after Carolina and play Teddy the final three games (Cin, GB, Chi).  The opponents are inferior and will be safe slate of game to make an evaluation without too much worry if he performs poorly.

[vike daddy]

When it comes to their 2017 starting quarterback, the Vikings are taking it one week at a time. When it comes to their 2018 starting quarterback, the Vikings aren’t taking it, at all.

Per a source with knowledge of the situation, the team intends to wait to decide on their 2018 quarterback after the 2017 season fully plays itself out. It’s a risky strategy, given that none of the quarterbacks under contract for 2017 — Case Keenum, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, and Kyle Sloter— has a deal beyond the current season. (Sloter will be an exclusive rights free agent, which means the Vikings can control his rights with a minimum-salary tender.)

Another source tells PFT that the Vikings and Keenum have had no conversations about a contract that would replace the one-year, $2 million deal he signed in the offseason. Forced to bet on himself, Keenum keeps flipping solid cards, week after week.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/11/26/vikings-will-wait-on-making-a-quarterback-decision-for-2018/

[SemperFeist]

I still think that it’s very likely that the Vikings can re-sign both Keenum and Bridgewater with a combined 2018 cap hit in that $20M range. 

[vike daddy]

11 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

Ride him [Keenum] out, hopefully the division is clinched after Carolina and play Teddy the final three games (Cin, GB, Chi).  The opponents are inferior and will be safe slate of game to make an evaluation without too much worry if he performs poorly.

as much as i'd like to real time game data on teddy to help see what he has in his tank, everything this year has to be about advancing in the playoffs. can't risk anything, or any game wins, for the sake of the QB Quandry.

[vike daddy]

Just now, SemperFeist said:

I still think that it’s very likely that the Vikings can re-sign both Keenum and Bridgewater with a combined 2018 cap hit in that $20M range. 

and in that scenario, Shurmur has to be retained also.

[CriminalMind]

15 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

There is a 3 game sample of a player that far exceeds anything he has done in his career to date, both statically and performance wise, but it's not an outlier or a hot streak?...ok

The majority of Case's games he performed in the low to high 70s in passer rating.  With a wide ranging standard deviation proving he is prone to a high variance in play, which both proves that he's likely to regress and that he isn't a reliable starter (as in, not a long term answer).

Ride him out, hopefully the division is clinched after Carolina and play Teddy the final three games (Cin, GB, Chi).  The opponents are inferior and will be safe slate of game to make an evaluation without too much worry if he performs poorly.

Theres no way I would run out Teddy Bridgewater until we clinch #1 seed, or are completely locked into a certain seed (maybe week 17).

[CriminalMind]

5 minutes ago, SemperFeist said:

I still think that it’s very likely that the Vikings can re-sign both Keenum and Bridgewater with a combined 2018 cap hit in that $20M range. 

I can hope for that, but I don't think that is very likely. Let's start with $15M for Case which is speculated in media (going on that for now), Teddy won't return for $5M here.

[Worm Guts]

Would anyone be interested in bringing back Bradford if he's willing to be a backup and he appears to be healthy?

[CriminalMind]

3 minutes ago, Worm Guts said:

Would anyone be interested in bringing back Bradford if he's willing to be a backup and he appears to be healthy?

Sure, depending on price, and assuming 1 of the other 2 QBs have signed elsewhere already. I prefer to get a comp pick for him tho, so hope there is a decent market for him still.

[boombap]

What about something like this

Teddy and Case each get $8 mil guaranteed and each has $500,000 per game bonus for starts. If one wins the job outright in camp and stays healthy he would earn $16 mil while the other would still be among the highest paid back ups at $8 mil. If they both play due to injury they could both make in the 10-14 mil range. 

Gives one more year to determine who the QBOTF is and would be fair to both players.

 

Let the best man win.

[JDBrocks]

Man... some of these posts are completely off the deep end. Talking about needing evidence before speculating, and then throwing an entirely hypothetical straw man situation with no basis in reality to try to prove a point? Or not? I'm not sure.

anyway...

Keenum needs to start until the wheels fall off. I expect them to. I don't know where anyone in the media has said $15 mil to start. I saw a pretty good Bill Barnwell piece say 7-10 is a pretty good bet if he keeps this up.

I also agree that the ideal scenario is to retain Teddy, Case, Sloter, and Shurmer. I can't remember the last time the QB room had the same guys in week 17 and week 1 the next year.

As for Bradford, I think the Vikings need to move on. He can't stay healthy. The last time we watched him, he was literally falling over because he couldn't protect himself. For his future as a human being I hope he calls it quits.

[milanb]

6 minutes ago, Worm Guts said:

Would anyone be interested in bringing back Bradford if he's willing to be a backup and he appears to be healthy?

Not really.

I was one of the few people on this board who was lukewarm to the idea of Bradford at QB when the Vikings traded for him. I saw it as a desperation move, where the Vikings were trying to salvage their season and did not have a lot of options. The knock on Bradford was that he was strictly a pocket passer with an average arm and no mobility. And there were questions about his leadership and his willingness to take a hit to deliver the ball down the field. All of these things proved true. Say what you will about Case Keenum, but when your backup steps in and your team goes from 28th in team offence (where the Vikings were in 2016) to 4th, that says something about the level of QB play you were getting before.