Klomp Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 45 minutes ago, Freakout said: My biggest fear is throwing a big deal at Keenum only to end up losing Shurmur and having Keenum regress. I fear another Foles/Kelly situation. That's why I would lean towards franchise tag if that were the situation. A lot of money, but only a one year trial to see if Keenum sustains his success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolmonite26 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 What's the benefit of locking Keenum up (franchise tag or otherwise)? Regression is inevitable, and there's a pretty compelling case that Keenum is not even a good QB. So why throw 20+M at him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Freakish Mind Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said: Regression is inevitable, And yet absolutely nothing to back up your statement. Just sit back on your couch and count the days until you can come back in here and pat yourself on the back for finally being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Why is regression inevitable? What if this is what he is with a good team surrounding? Cook, Thielen, Diggs, Rudolph & and improving O-Line. I mean yes there is a case that he isn't THAT GOOD. Right now he is just playing at that above average level. Hard to argue he is not playing at a Top 16 QB level right now. I'm not one that want to franchise him, just seems like a little overbearing Case saying that he will regress with this talent. Unless you mean regress to somehow playing like he did with the Rams and Texans? The system he is playing in unless it changes, is hard to fail miserably in. Those offenses weren't created for a running game, short passing game, and just getting the ball into playmakers hands. You see players play at higher levels when their is talent around them, but you very rarely see QB's fall on their face unless it is due to injuries, or older age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedRider Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Freakish Mind said: 10 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said: Regression is inevitable, And yet absolutely nothing to back up your statement. Just sit back on your couch and count the days until you can come back in here and pat yourself on the back for finally being right. It goes back to the one article that someone shared here not too long ago. It correctly stated there is no such thing as "regression to the mean." The concept of Keenum inevitably playing like his former self is based on an illogical idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I don't think that this level of play is sustainable, but regression to the mean would include this year. Which would mean some place in between pre 2017 performance and this season. The coefficient here would also be the supporting cast. Obviously there isn't a formula, but I don't think it is outlandish to suggest that there is some regression after an offseason with teams having tape to evaluate and potential coaching departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopherwrestler Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, JDBrocks said: potential coaching departures. Huge part of this. I would honestly think about the franchise tag if Shurmur would end up staying. We lose Shurmur and bring in a new OC from outside the organization I would have a hard time signing Keenum to something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolmonite26 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I just don't understand why its really being considered. There are numerous statistical and film evaluations that tell us that Keenum isn't a very good QB. Essentially he need the type of supporting cast that exist right now, as well as proven statistical outliers (contested catch rate, sack/pressure ratio) to produce at the rate he is. All things staying equal in this situation (personal, coaching, health) in 2018, which isn't exactly predictable (expect the unexpected), a low threshold of play at the position is/has been needed. Its going to cost 20+ to keep him. How is that less risky than giving Teddy 8-12M? Even if teddy is only as good as Case (likely) you win out. All of that being without factoring in the draft, as to which I would say QB needs to be on the shortlist in either scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Worm Guts Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said: I just don't understand why its really being considered. There are numerous statistical and film evaluations that tell us that Keenum isn't a very good QB. Essentially he need the type of supporting cast that exist right now, as well as proven statistical outliers (contested catch rate, sack/pressure ratio) to produce at the rate he is. All things staying equal in this situation (personal, coaching, health) in 2018, which isn't exactly predictable (expect the unexpected), a low threshold of play at the position is/has been needed. Its going to cost 20+ to keep him. How is that less risky than giving Teddy 8-12M? Even if teddy is only as good as Case (likely) you win out. All of that being without factoring in the draft, as to which I would say QB needs to be on the shortlist in either scenario. Pretty much everything says he's playing like a top 10 QB right now. Look at advanced stats like DVOA or PFF grading, both have him in the top 7. Can he maintain, I have no idea, but he is definitely playing great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolmonite26 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Worm Guts said: Pretty much everything says he's playing like a top 10 QB right now. Look at advanced stats like DVOA or PFF grading, both have him in the top 7. Can he maintain, I have no idea, but he is definitely playing great. On the whole of season, no he's not, but that's fine believe what you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Worm Guts Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Dolmonite26 said: On the whole of season, no he's not, but that's fine believe what you want. The numbers are based on the whole season. He's #1 in DVOA, he's #3 in QBR, he's #8 in QB rating, and PFF has him graded as 7th best QB. What numbers say he isn't playing great? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heimdallr Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Why do people assume Teddy will improve, but Case can't? He only started 24 games over 4 previous years, mostly sporadically and on really bad teams. Maybe what he is doing this year is the "real" Case. Or maybe he simply has improved. A few years ago I took the stats for every QB drafted in a 10-15 year period that played a significant amount of time, and the data very consistently showed that QBs don't hit their true potential until about 40-45 games played. Games played had a stronger correlation than age. Considering Case came into the league as a 24 year old rookie, and was given very limited playing time or opportunity in his first 4 years, I think his age is irrelevant when projecting his career. If I was analyzing Case's career progression, I would equate this to his "3rd" year. In his first 4 years he played a total of 15 games, which I would equate to a "rookie year" considering his development would have been slowed by never getting 1st team reps or consistent action. Then last season he started 9 consecutive games which is a decent season. This year will be 14 games (plus playoffs). Case has taken a different route to get where he is, but in terms of career progress he and Teddy were at roughly the same spot going into this season (24 vs 28 starts). Going into Teddy's 3rd season, everyone was predicting big improvements. Case just had his "3rd" season, and he DID show big improvement. Looking at next year, Case will be hitting that 40-45 game mark and (with all things equal) I would predict he improves slightly over this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think the answer is pretty simple: Case didn't show any of this on a consistent basis in any of his previous stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, JDBrocks said: I think the answer is pretty simple: Case didn't show any of this on a consistent basis in any of his previous stops. And Sam Bradford was never an above .500 QB either. The teams that Case and Sam were on before the Vikings were all terrible. Case looked better with the Rams last year than Goff looked on that same team. Goff is turning into a pretty decent QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dolmonite26 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 hours ago, Worm Guts said: The numbers are based on the whole season. He's #1 in DVOA, he's #3 in QBR, he's #8 in QB rating, and PFF has him graded as 7th best QB. What numbers say he isn't playing great? Right and most of those scores are based on production. I cant figure out why PFF has him so high tbh, but I find their grading to be more and more dubious personally. I digress, but his production this year has been very good, leading to his high QBR, DVOA and passer rating. Dig deeper into how that production is won and there are some warning signs. I have seen the supporting stats, read film evaluations (Arif, Cian Fehey, and Matthew Collar are good places to start). Those along with my own personal evaluation have lead me to my current opinion. However I worry about properly regurgitating that information, and would need more time and energy then have to give atm, I'm sorry for that. Now I need to be clear, I mean very literally when I say he isn't a good QB that he just isnt in that tier (~ top 10). Though,I don't know yet if he's bad or average, but there's the crux of it. Do you give someone, who even the most optimistic of us still wonder whether he's actually good, but more likely average or worse, 20M+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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