NCAA Basketball Thread: '21-22

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree, but they get an extra year of development for free and scouting is better so they don't waste high picks on guys that were HS stars.

That extra year of free scouting has helped NBA teams draft Markelle Fultz, Anthony Bennett, Greg Oden, Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Michael Beasley, Oj Mayo, Tyrus Thomas, and Josh Jackson in the top 5. 

There were literally 17 HS kids drafted in the lottery over a 25 year period. 

8 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

The one and done hits seem to be hitting earlier, giving NBA teams more years of better player on cheap deals. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-top-100-player-rankings-lebron-james-holds-off-kawhi-giannis-for-no-1-no-rookies-make-list/

Using CBS Sports top 100 as a reference...

The only two one-n-done lottery picks in the top 10 are Kevin Durant and Anthony Davis who were generational talents. (Davis was just okay as a rookie)

Beyond that the only other one-n-done lottery picks in the top 30 are Jayson Tatum (took off year 3), Joel Embiid (didn't even play until year 3), Brad Beal (took off year 5), Devin Booker (scored a lot on a bad team year 2, didn't win until year 6), KAT (has been good for terrible teams), Bam Adebayo (took off year 3), Ben Simmons (has declined), Jamal Murray (took off year 3/4), Kyrie Irving (scored a lot but didn't win until Bron), Zion Williamson (dominated on bad teams), and Trae Young (scored a lot on bad teams until year 3). 

So it isn't like that 1 extra year of development is setting these guys up to just come into the league and be great players from day one. The only ones who have had really good rookie seasons are guys like Zion, Durant, and Davis who were generational players. 

[Mox]

15 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree, but they get an extra year of development for free and scouting is better so they don't waste high picks on guys that were HS stars. Kobe you could see his talent, but he really didn't breakout until year 3/4.  Garnett was pretty good in year 2 and 3 but really broke out in year 4.  McGrady wasn't much until year 3 or 4. Howard had a solid rookie year but really took off in year 3.  Amare showed out in year 2 but he was really old for a highschool kid (turned 20 at the beginning of his rookie year).  

The one and done hits seem to be hitting earlier, giving NBA teams more years of better player on cheap deals.  Kobe played 3 years on a crap contract before signing a big (for the time) extension right when he was breaking out.  

I agree bad GMing isnt a reason to have the rule, but its a rule for a reason, and it sure isn't there to protect the kids at all. Its there to give NBA teams more control of the better part of these guys careers for cheaper.    

I'd much rather drop one and done, and allow teams to stash a player in the G-League for a year or two and it not count towards their NBA contract to develop if they are worried about that then keep the current system. I think that's a clear improvement. Also, NBA contracts were a lot different back then when high school guys could still enter. 

[NYRaider]

10 minutes ago, Bullet Club said:

I'd much rather drop one and done, and allow teams to stash a player in the G-League for a year or two and it not count towards their NBA contract to develop if they are worried about that then keep the current system. I think that's a clear improvement. Also, NBA contracts were a lot different back then when high school guys could still enter. 

The problem with that is why would guys willingly choose to go be stashed in the G-League when they can make more and play on a national stage in college? 

The NBA having a rookie contract scale in place mitigates the risk of drafting a HS player highly. Look at Malik Monk for example, the Hornets drafted him 11th overall, he was with the team for 4 years and made less than $4M per year, and then the team was able to just move on. That's slightly higher than a minimum contract, so if teams were to take the next Kwame Brown, does it really hurt them that much long-term? Not really. I mean even look at guys like Anthony Bennett and Markelle Fultz who were drafted #1 overall and then were complete busts. Both of their teams were able to move on without any long-term ramifications of the pick not working out. 

Edited August 5, 2021 by NYRaider

[NYRaider]

If we did a comparison of HS players drafted in the lottery vs 1 and done kids drafted in the lottery since the rule was implemented, I'd bet my life savings that the bust rate is higher for one-n-dones. 

[NYRaider]

On 7/31/2021 at 4:35 PM, NYRaider said:

Since the one-n-done rule was implemented in 2006, there has been a pretty high bust rate for non-top 5 pick freshmen that have entered the draft. The only 7 one-n-done players that were taken outside the top 5 and have been All-Stars are  DeMar DeRozan, Jrue Holiday, Devin Booker, Julius Randle, Zach LaVine, Bam Adebayo, and Andre Drummond. Jamal Murray hasn't technically made the All-Star game so he's not on that list but he's definitely that caliber of player. SGA could become one as well. 

Even looking at last years All-Star teams, of the 27 players only LaVine and Randle were one-n-done, non top 5 picks. The other 25 players were all either former multi year college players, former one-n-done top 5 picks, or foreign born players. 

When you look around the league the only one-n-done players taken 10th or later that are considered good players are Jrue Holiday, Tobias Harris, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Zach LaVine, and Bam Adebayo. Tyler Herro is the only other one that was ranked in the top 100 that meets those criteria before this season but I wouldn't consider him at the same level as those other guys. 

 

On 7/31/2021 at 4:47 PM, NYRaider said:

The only 3 one-n-done non lottery picks that have had good careers since the one-n-done rule are Tobias Harris, Jrue Holiday, and Deandre Jordan. And the only recent ones in NBA rotations are Keldon Johnson, Gary Trent Jr, Jarrett Allen, Dejounte Murray, Kelly Oubre, Tyus Jones, and Kevon Looney. 

@Sllim Pickens @Bullet Club

[Mox]

Just now, NYRaider said:

 

@Sllim Pickens @Bullet Club

I did a study on it a decade ago because I thought the rule was dumb from the get go. It's a fact that high school players don't bust higher than other draftees. The percentages bore that out.

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

The problem with that is why would guys willingly choose to go be stashed in the G-League when they can make more and play on a national stage in college? 

The NBA having a rookie contract scale in place mitigates the risk of drafting a HS player highly. Look at Malik Monk for example, the Hornets drafted him 11th overall, he was with the team for 4 years and made less than $4M per year, and then the team was able to just move on. That's slightly higher than a minimum contract, so if teams were to take the next Kwame Brown, does it really hurt them that much long-term? Not really. I mean even look at guys like Anthony Bennett and Markelle Fultz who were drafted #1 overall and then were complete busts. Both of their teams were able to move on without any long-term ramifications of the pick not working out. 

It does more at the top of the draft.  but still not a ton.  If a #1 pick is only worth being a solid 6th man, most 6th men get over 10M a year now a days.  

But overall I agree, something needs to be done.  I'd rather just let the kids do what they want and if someone is good enough to go, let them go.  The contracts were different back then and now with 5 years of control of their careers, and limits on how much they can make based on age and years in the league, its only fair to let them start that clock sooner.  Its a dumb rule.  Its hurting college basketball IMO because teams can't be built.  We still will likely have a decent amount of 1 and dones with guys like Suggs, Primo and Keon Johnson who probably weren't going straight from HS anyways and showed enough to be a prospect for the draft.  But guys like Jalen Green, Kuminga, and Cade would have gone last year.  Mobley likely as well. So albeit there will be one and dones, it will be less likely a team can load up with the top 3 prospects in a class and win a championship in a year. 

[NYRaider]

Just now, Bullet Club said:

I did a study on it a decade ago because I thought the rule was dumb from the get go. It's a fact that high school players don't bust higher than other draftees. The percentages bore that out.

Facts. And lets face it there are very few prospects that are even ready to make the jump from HS to the NBA. Since the rule was implemented in 2006 there's only a handful of prospects that could've made the leap and been an early draft pick. I'd say those guys being Greg Oden, Kevin Durant, John Wall, Ben Simmons, Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Zion Williamson, Cade Cunningham, and Jalen Green. You can make a case for Anthony Davis/Kyrie Irving but both of those guys likely needed that year in college due to their slight frames.

[NYRaider]

1 minute ago, Sllim Pickens said:

It does more at the top of the draft.  but still not a ton.  If a #1 pick is only worth being a solid 6th man, most 6th men get over 10M a year now a days.  

But overall I agree, something needs to be done.  I'd rather just let the kids do what they want and if someone is good enough to go, let them go.  The contracts were different back then and now with 5 years of control of their careers, and limits on how much they can make based on age and years in the league, its only fair to let them start that clock sooner.  Its a dumb rule.  Its hurting college basketball IMO because teams can't be built.  We still will likely have a decent amount of 1 and dones with guys like Suggs, Primo and Keon Johnson who probably weren't going straight from HS anyways and showed enough to be a prospect for the draft.  But guys like Jalen Green, Kuminga, and Cade would have gone last year.  Mobley likely as well. So albeit there will be one and dones, it will be less likely a team can load up with the top 3 prospects in a class and win a championship in a year. 

There were 3 kids that declared straight out of HS and went #1, LeBron, Dwight, and Kwame. Only one of those guys was a major bust. In the one-n-done era we've had Greg Oden, Anthony Bennett, and Markelle Fultz go #1 and all be complete busts. 

The rookie contract scale mitigates the risk because even if a guy doesn't pan out it doesn't cripple a team financially in the short or long term. It definitely has hurt college basketball a ton as guys are just in and out of programs, a lot of them don't even go to class and are only there because they have to be. 

And I don't think you'd see a ton of guys making the jump even if the rule is changed. As I said there were only 29 HS players selected in the 1st round (17 lottery) in the 25 years that HS kids were allowed to declare for the draft. 

[Sllim Pickens]

Just now, NYRaider said:

There were 3 kids that declared straight out of HS and went #1, LeBron, Dwight, and Kwame. Only one of those guys was a major bust. In the one-n-done era we've had Greg Oden, Anthony Bennett, and Markelle Fultz go #1 and all be complete busts. 

The rookie contract scale mitigates the risk because even if a guy doesn't pan out it doesn't cripple a team financially in the short or long term. It definitely has hurt college basketball a ton as guys are just in and out of programs, a lot of them don't even go to class and are only there because they have to be. 

And I don't think you'd see a ton of guys making the jump even if the rule is changed. As I said there were only 29 HS players selected in the 1st round (17 lottery) in the 25 years that HS kids were allowed to declare for the draft. 

I agree with all that.  I am just arguing why they have it in place, and why it won't change.  Its about scouting, its about money, its about paying them when they are at their best.  Even with the success, a team may not see much of the success until they are paying them fat or they are on another team. The rule was not put in place to protect players, it was there to protect owners and GMs.  So they don't care about kids getting paid, they dont care about them having to spend a year in college because now they feel like they get a better look at these kids and Orlando didn't end up taking Brandon Boston Jr #5 instead of Suggs.  

[NYRaider]

@Sllim Pickens @Bullet Club it is also pretty ironic that Lavar Ball is kind of at the center of all of these changes and what will likely be a seismic shift in the basketball prospect/draft landscape. It all kind of started when LiAngelo Ball got kicked out of UCLA and then LaMelo left HS to go play with him in Lithuania. LaMelo also getting a signature shoe basically screwed his college eligibility. Lithuania didn't work out for them so Lavar started his own league to pay HS players, which also didn't really work out. But since LaMelo wasn't eligible to play in the NCAA he decided to go play for a year in Australia. 

Now we have the Overtime League which will pay HS players, NCAA athletes can get paid off their likeness, and the NBA created the Ignite program to stop top prospects like LaMelo from going overseas. 

Quote

The NBA decided to start Ignite after talented prospects such as LaMelo Ball (the brother of New Orleans Pelicans star Lonzo Ball) and RJ Hampton skipped college to go play abroad in the Australian league. Many elite players too would have followed suit in the following years because the NCAA doesn’t allow college athletes to make money, and leagues abroad such as the one in Australia pay lucrative amounts to players to skip college and play for them instead. As part of Ignite, though, top players are paid a decent salary and get more exposure to scouts from all 30 teams.

 

[NYRaider]

5 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree with all that.  I am just arguing why they have it in place, and why it won't change.  Its about scouting, its about money, its about paying them when they are at their best.  Even with the success, a team may not see much of the success until they are paying them fat or they are on another team. The rule was not put in place to protect players, it was there to protect owners and GMs.  So they don't care about kids getting paid, they dont care about them having to spend a year in college because now they feel like they get a better look at these kids and Orlando didn't end up taking Brandon Boston Jr #5 instead of Suggs.  

They've been reportedly considering a change since 2018, with 2022 being the target year for that change since the rumors started to circulate. I mean why did the league create the Ignite program? To give guys a chance to be paid and not go overseas but with the NIL in place now the Ignite program is essentially worthless to top prospects. 

With the rookie pay scale in place how does the rule really protect owners and GMs? It's not like top HS prospects were all declaring for the draft before the rule was in place, you had 17 HS kids drafted in the lottery over a 25 year period. 

Amateur basketball has grown by leaps and bounds over the last 16 years since the rule was put into place. NBA scouts see these kids playing at major HS programs that play national schedules, for major AAU programs that play national schedules, and in the youth FIBA competitions. When a guy like Kwame Brown was selected #1 they were probably having to travel to random HS gyms to see him play against local kids that would never even sniff D1 basketball. 

And again when you look at the guys that made the leap and were drafted highly there's a consistent theme with basically all of them. They were all freak athletes with developed bodies outside of probably Telfair. Guys like Kwame Brown, Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Kevin Garnett, Jonathan Bender, DeSagana Diop, Amar'e Stoudemire, Robert Swift, Andrew Bynum were all 6'11"+ guys with plus athleticism. Then wings like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Shaun Livingston, LeBron James, Martell Webster, and Darius Miles were all 6'6-6'7"+ wings wit plus athleticism. 

Do you think a team would've taken Brandon Boston Jr who was an average athlete and 175 pounds highly? I doubt it, lol. 

[NYRaider]

That extra year of scouting has protected NBA GMs/Owners by helping them discover prospects such as Mo Bamba, Kevin Knox, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr, Malik Monk, Marquese Chriss, Jahlil Okafor, Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, Trey Lyles, Noah Vonleh, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Shabazz Muhammad, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Brandon Knight, Xavier Henry, Jerryd Bayless, Tyrus Thomas, and so many more...

[Sllim Pickens]

1 minute ago, NYRaider said:

They've been reportedly considering a change since 2018, with 2022 being the target year for that change since the rumors started to circulate. I mean why did the league create the Ignite program? To give guys a chance to be paid and not go overseas but with the NIL in place now the Ignite program is essentially worthless to top prospects. 

With the rookie pay scale in place how does the rule really protect owners and GMs? It's not like top HS prospects were all declaring for the draft before the rule was in place, you had 17 HS kids drafted in the lottery over a 25 year period. 

Amateur basketball has grown by leaps and bounds over the last 16 years since the rule was put into place. NBA scouts see these kids playing at major HS programs that play national schedules, for major AAU programs that play national schedules, and in the youth FIBA competitions. When a guy like Kwame Brown was selected #1 they were probably having to travel to random HS gyms to see him play against local kids that would never even sniff D1 basketball. 

And again when you look at the guys that made the leap and were drafted highly there's a consistent theme with basically all of them. They were all freak athletes with developed bodies outside of probably Telfair. Guys like Kwame Brown, Dwight Howard, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Kevin Garnett, Jonathan Bender, DeSagana Diop, Amar'e Stoudemire, Robert Swift, Andrew Bynum were all 6'11"+ guys with plus athleticism. Then wings like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady, Shaun Livingston, LeBron James, Martell Webster, and Darius Miles were all 6'6-6'7"+ wings wit plus athleticism. 

Do you think a team would've taken Brandon Boston Jr who was an average athlete and 175 pounds highly? I doubt it, lol. 

Its the control.  They don't have to pay for the next Kobe's rookie year where he scores 8 per game and fills out a little.  Thats the primary reason.  They get to start the clock a year later.  They get 5 years on a rookie deal and don't want to waste those years on essentially a red-shirt year.  They also get a year to scout against better competition.  Its why after the top 2 or 3 guys, the rest of the order changes pretty significantly from year to year.

And yes, someone would have drafted Boston in the lotto had he gone right from high school.  He was rated right behind Kuminga, has a 6'10" wingspan and was a solid athlete and scorer in HS.  They took chances on Ziarie Williams, Josh Primo, and others who didn't blow it as big as Boston did. Its easy revisionist history but if eligible for this draft with the straigh to the NBA guys gone, someone would have taken a chance on Peyton Watson in this class who is a lower rated recruit than Boston was and is 6'8 180 because teams would think they could bulk them up. A year ago people were hyping up this Kentucky class because of Boston and his flop caused him to drop in the draft.   

Here is a mock draft from November with Boston going #3 to Detroit ahead of Mobley. Dashien Nix in the top 15, and plenty of others who didn't get drafted listed while Moody is a 2nd round pick.  The info they gain from HS to one year of college as scouts is huge. 

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/30383235/nba-mock-draft-loaded-no-1-pick-race-new-top-60

Here is one with Boston going #2. 

https://www.sbnation.com/2020/11/19/21567033/nba-mock-draft-2021-cade-cunningham-jalen-green-evan-mobley

 

 

[Sllim Pickens]

15 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

That extra year of scouting has protected NBA GMs/Owners by helping them discover prospects such as Mo Bamba, Kevin Knox, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr, Malik Monk, Marquese Chriss, Jahlil Okafor, Stanley Johnson, Justise Winslow, Trey Lyles, Noah Vonleh, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Shabazz Muhammad, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Brandon Knight, Xavier Henry, Jerryd Bayless, Tyrus Thomas, and so many more...

Most of those guys were top picks if they came out of HS.  It saved most from drafting Nico Mannion in the 1st round. Or taking RJ barret or Cam Reddish or Bol Bol over Zion because in HS people didnt think his game would translate.  It helped people realize Trae Young and SGA were better than Trevon Duvall. It helped people know Harry Giles and Josh Jackson weren't better than Tatum.  I could keep going but yes some guys are still drafted on potential if they have tools and don't screw up too bad.