iknowcool Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 8 hours ago, Jakuvious said: This year, I really don't think it would've made much difference. Prime Luck was really not that much better than what Rivers did last year. Better bulk, because they just threw the ball non-stop with Luck, but he was consistently less efficient. 2018 Luck had more yards and TDs than 2020 Rivers, but really just by virtue of attempts. He had a lower YPA, YPC, completion %, a higher INT%, etc. Only won out in TD rate, but again, the '20 Colts just ran the ball more. And 2018 was the most efficient Luck ever was. Take the other years and it looks even worse. It also isn't like Rivers played really poorly in the playoff game or anything, either. There really isn't any reason to think that Luck would've done substantially better than Rivers, this year. People really just like to put Luck on that pre-draft pedestal from him being the GOAT QB prospect. I don't think it is overrating him to suggest they would be doing better with Luck though (and I agree, upon entering the league, Luck was very overrated/overhyped). And I hate to be dismissive of numbers, because I do agree Luck in his prime could have been more efficient, but I just don't really see 2020 Rivers as being as capable or having the upside as Luck despite the numbers. Beyond having a great offensive line, Luck did a great job correcting a lot of the things he used to do poorly. Especially as the season wore on and he got some of his arm strength back (IIRC he was not pushing the ball down the field at all in those first few weeks). And when you look at what he did after Week 6, I think the showed why the Colts upside was/would be much higher with him than Rivers: 10 games, 69 CMP%, 2801 yards, 23 TDs, 7 INTs, 106.8 QBR, 7.9 Y/A It is only a 10 game sample, so I acknowledge it is possible he would have reverted back to some of his more reckless tendencies. But IMO that was the best Luck I had seen to that point. Same strengths as old Luck (great pocket movement/mobility, clutch, very good throwing on the run, etc.) but with a smarter mentality and not trying to do too much. The improved offensive line helped a lot. Rivers had a solid season, but I think he benefited more from how well the team was built around him rather than anything else. Even so though, we saw how much his performance improved going from the Chargers in 2019 to the Colts in 2020. I don't think it is unreasonable to think that Luck could have had a similar improvement in his performance with the superior cast, especially when we already saw it happen in '18. Besides, they made it to the divisional round in 2018. So even if 2018 was Luck's ceiling, it isn't like they hadn't proved they could have success and win a playoff game. And all the Colts have done since then is improve in just about every area other than WR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 hours ago, EvilenFroggen said: And then once he got there...man, he’s fallen out of the top 50 of playoff laser ratings since the last time somebody posted a thread like this. edit: eh, I’m leaving it as is. Irrelevant reply lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigbadbuff Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 28 minutes ago, iknowcool said: What are you disagreeing with? Them being better than the Bills? They have a better defense, better OL, much better running game. What would have kept them behind the Bills if Luck was their starter? Even if you think Allen is better (which I disagree with), the Colts are just stronger in almost every other area sans WRs Buffalo also has the better secondary. The reason they would still be behind the Bills is because when they played in the playoffs, Rivers torched the Bills, and they still lost. Unless we are assuming Luck comes in and throws for 400 and 3-4tds. Also the Bills went 13-3. It’s a stretch for me to assume Luck comes back and makes Indy 14-2 to be the second seed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iknowcool Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, bigbadbuff said: Buffalo also has the better secondary. The reason they would still be behind the Bills is because when they played in the playoffs, Rivers torched the Bills, and they still lost. Unless we are assuming Luck comes in and throws for 400 and 3-4tds. Torched? He completed less than 60% of his passes and while he threw for over 300 yards, it took 46 pass attempts. Rivers did not torch anybody. He played a solid game that seemed more impressive than it was because expectations for Rivers were low. Besides, ya'll won by 3 points. It isn't like the Bills clearly proved themselves as superior. It is more of a stretch to think that a QB needed 400 yards and 4 TDs to beat ya'll that day than for me to think Luck makes the Colts a better team. It is possible the Bills would have had a better record, but then again, I don't really view them as a 13-3 team. I wasn't really surprised by how the AFC Championship game played out. Obviously I'm not saying it is guarantee the Colts w/ Luck are better, because the Bills are good too. But I don't see how it is unreasonable to think that Luck could have propelled them over the Bills. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilenFroggen Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said: Irrelevant reply lol. Playing poorly in the postseason isn’t relevant? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) 34 minutes ago, EvilenFroggen said: Playing poorly in the postseason isn’t relevant? Yeah past playoff performances don’t determine if a QB will still play that way or not. Especially a small sample size. With the way the Colts are now constructed compared to his early years I think they have a deep playoff run. Edited February 12, 2021 by Blackstar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatJaxxenGuy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Colts with the battered corpse of Andy Luck would still have lost to the Bills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilenFroggen Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 52 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said: Yeah past playoff performances don’t determine if a QB will still play that way or not. Especially a small sample size. With the way the Colts are now constructed compared to his early years I think they have a deep playoff run. Sure, they don’t directly determine anything, but it would be foolish to dismiss them outright. When 50+ people have performed better than him (with 50+ varieties of sample sizes and 50+ varieties of situations), it shouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackstar12 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, EvilenFroggen said: Sure, they don’t directly determine anything, but it would be foolish to dismiss them outright. When 50+ people have performed better than him (with 50+ varieties of sample sizes and 50+ varieties of situations), it shouldn’t exactly fill you with confidence. Where are you pulling these numbers from? Are you just going off just playoff passer ratings? The Goat is 15th in passer rating does that mean there’s 14 other better playoff QBs? It’s a mixed bag to get info. Not to mention the opponents, circumstances,different eras etc. I’m still standing the Colts would’ve had a deep playoff run. We can agree to disagree I guess. Edited February 12, 2021 by Blackstar12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
childofpudding Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2018 Indy defense: -7.2% weighted DVOA (8th) 2020 Indy defense: -6% weighted DVOA (10th) 2018 Indy rushing offense: -6.7% DVOA (13th) 2020 rushing offense: -5.4% DVOA (12th) 2018 top RB: Mack, 216 DYAR (4th) 2020 top RB: Taylor, 127 DYAR (14th) 2018 top WR: Hilton, 359 DYAR (7th) 2020 top WR: Hilton, 128 DYAR (27th) 2018 top TE: Ebron, 68 DYAR (11th) 2020 top TE: Alie-Cox, 57 DYAR (17th) 2018 PFF offensive line ranking: 3rd 2020 PFF offensive line ranking: 7th 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilenFroggen Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 26 minutes ago, Blackstar12 said: Where are you pulling these numbers from? Are you just going off just playoff passer ratings? The Goat is 15th in passer rating does that mean there’s 14 other better playoff QBs? It’s a mixed bag to get info. Not to mention the opponents, circumstances,different eras etc. I’m still standing the Colts would’ve had a deep playoff run. We can agree to disagree I guess. Playoff passer rating is not the be all end all, I agree with you. Obviously there’s some leeway of interpretation when you have Brady 15th. But am I off base to expect better than “not listed” out of a guy we’re praising? We are adding Andrew Luck as he would be now, right, as though he’d never retired? I don’t see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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