First Mock Attempt

[Joe]

Thought I'd throw something quick together.

**Disclaimer: I do not attempt to be, nor do I claim to be an expert on numbers**

Ergo here are my assumptions in regards to who's gone and who isn't:

FA Walks(notable):
Jones
King
Lancaster
Redmond
Boyle(Love is ready to slide into QB2)

Cuts:
Wagner

Signings(notable):
Linsley
J. Williams
Tonyan
Lazard
Sullivan
Harrison(kicking the tires, vet minimum)
Winn(see Harrison)
Ramsey
Lewis(announces this will be his last year)
*all ERFAs and RFA's not previously mentioned

FA Signings(external):
Dalvin Tomlinson(3-year deal)

There will probably be more external FA signings, but I'm not going to guess who and what. 

 

Round 1: Christian Barmore, IDL, Alabama: This will be the first year where Gutey does NOT trade up though he tries as Christian Darrisaw is falling down the boards, but can't get higher than Indy who will select him at 21 to replace the retiring Anthony Castonzo. There is an assumption that the Packers will be switching alignments to more of a 4-3 look with 4 rushing, 7 dropping into a zone type of scheme with speed and reliable tackling...so I read in a couple places. Even if that change doesn't take place, Barmore gives us another big body in the middle that can draw a lot of attention giving Kenny and Keke more opportunities to wreak havoc in the backfield...hell they can probably take turns.. I have Snacks Harrison coming back as more of a NT to eat up blocks while pushing the pocket, though you'll see where I find his eventual replacement later in this draft. Lowry DOES come back for the final year of his contract with MAdams and Lancaster out the door freeing up roster space.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/christian-barmore/2e7BodFkQG

**Trade UP - Packers ship their 2nd and 3rd round picks to Jacksonville for their 2nd round pick and the opening pick on Day 3***

Round 2: Dillon Radunz, OT, NDSU: Radunz excels in the power running game and blew up at the Senior Bowl recenty. He may be a small-school prospect, but several teams ahead of the Packers will be interested as Baltimore's GM has at least thrown up a smoke-screen that he is on their radar. With questions concerning Bakh's return, Radunz gives us a younger, healthier, and more agile option than the outgoing Rick Wagner.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/dillon-radunz/AYtTvd0Qyh

 

*NOTE: Day 3 selections are with the assumption that we will land a 4th, 5th, and 6th round comp. pick*

Round 4a: Israel Mukuamu, CB, South Carolina: Mukuamu may go much earlier given his 2018 and 2019 seasons, but he fell off in 2020 mainly due to injury. Like King, Mukuamu is a high-cut 6-3 CB that can be physical when necessary. Given that we might see more zone coverage out of Barry's defensive scheme, Mukuamu is an excellent fit given his ball skills.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/israel-mukuamu/I6pqf5f5p4

Round 4b: Trey Sermon, RB, Ohio St.: This is an obvious selection if he's on the board. Nothing more needs to be said

**Trade: The Jets have two early 5th round choices the first of which they ship along with their early 6th round pick up for our 4th round comp pick, we send back our comp 5th to balance the trade**

Round 5a: Keith Taylor, CB, Washington: Taylor is a taller CB that uses his size on the boundary to lock-up opposing WR's. Needs to develop better instincts, but could excel with Safety help.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/keith-taylor-jr/JhhAtUdNvB

Round 5b: Amari Rodgers, WR, Clemson: Rodgers' size is going to force him down the boards, but his speed, explosion, athleticism, and vision with the ball will earn him a roster spot; not to mention he can be a great RS. Rodgers' skill-set essentially allows us to drop Austin and Ervin if we so choose.

Round 6a: Bobby Brown, NT, Texas A&M: Here is Snacks' replacement. Like Snacks, Brown eats up blocks and collapses the pocket due to brute upper body strength. His anchor is his best trait and he isn't moved often.

https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/bobby-brown-iii/R63QuMzjzN

Round 6b: Jonathan Adams, WR, Ark. St: Big, physical receiver with room for development.

Round 6c: Nick Eubanks, TE, Michigan: Developmental TE

Round 7: Justin Hilliard, ILB, Ohio St: Hilliard was a key rotational piece for the Buckeyes and could've been a starter elsewhere probably. Hilliard provides excellent depth and would be an excellent ST contributor.

 

Fire Away!

Edited February 11, 2021 by Joe
Realized I forgot my 3rd 6th round pick...oops

[OneTwoSixFive]

I didn't pay attention to the cuts and FAs, but I love the picks, especially day 1 and 2.

I like the positions taken as well. DL first pick (excellent), OT (tick), CB (tick), RB (tick), 2nd DL (run stopper, tick). It's all good.

Here is a piece about Barmore (who did very nicely at the Senior Bowl)  https://withthefirstpick.com/2021/01/01/christian-barmore-dominant-bowl/

Edited February 11, 2021 by OneTwoSixFive

[Packerraymond]

Feel like you went way overboard on the resources on the DL. We have our stud that plays 80-90% of snaps a game already. We didn't cut Lowry, and he's fine for a 30-40% snap count. Snacks comes back, that's fine for our "big" formations and let's say 10-15% of snaps. Keke is ready to get 30-40% snap load. So there's room for one more guy to fit that 30-40% range and you bought a big name guy in Tomlinson and then used a 1st on a guy. Neither are premium pass rushers where you can get them all on the field in subpackage.

Think this needs a little redistribution of capital to me, there's too much here in DL that won't play.

[OneTwoSixFive]

7 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Feel like you went way overboard on the resources on the DL. We have our stud that plays 80-90% of snaps a game already. We didn't cut Lowry, and he's fine for a 30-40% snap count. Snacks comes back, that's fine for our "big" formations and let's say 10-15% of snaps. Keke is ready to get 30-40% snap load. So there's room for one more guy to fit that 30-40% range and you bought a big name guy in Tomlinson and then used a 1st on a guy. Neither are premium pass rushers where you can get them all on the field in subpackage.

Think this needs a little redistribution of capital to me, there's too much here in DL that won't play.

I'd say that overall DL is the weakest spot on defense. Maybe getting Tomlinson* is slightly rich, but the Packers must upgrade there. They lost to the Bucs (at least in part) because they couldn't pressure the Bucs like they did against the Packers, even with only four rushing. Same thing the year before with the 49ers. Our DL needs to be better so we can get closer to  competing in that area.

* If Tomlinson is looked at as a short term plug in while 6th rounder Bobby Brown learns the ropes, it doesn't seem too overboard (at least, not to me).

[Packerraymond]

57 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

I'd say that overall DL is the weakest spot on defense. Maybe getting Tomlinson* is slightly rich, but the Packers must upgrade there. They lost to the Bucs (at least in part) because they couldn't pressure the Bucs like they did against the Packers, even with only four rushing. Same thing the year before with the 49ers. Our DL needs to be better so we can get closer to  competing in that area.

* If Tomlinson is looked at as a short term plug in while 6th rounder Bobby Brown learns the ropes, it doesn't seem too overboard (at least, not to me).

The DL in a 3-4 is not responsible for pass rush. Hell we take 66% of them off the field in passing downs.

[Smidgeon]

2 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

The DL in a 3-4 is not responsible for pass rush. Hell we take 66% of them off the field in passing downs.

But if they can do it while maintaining gap discipline, doesn't it make the defense even scarier (in a good way)?

[MantyWrestler]

Love the picks but can’t believe for a second Baremore will be there at 29. He blew up a pretty good OSU o-line. 

[squire12]

Not sure where the money will come from to sign Linsley and Tomlinson.

[Brat&Beer]

14 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

The DL in a 3-4 is not responsible for pass rush. Hell we take 66% of them off the field in passing downs.

I wonder if Barry has a different philosophy on how much dime a defense should play. In 2019 Packers led the NFL playing dime 51% of the time. Rams were 2nd at 42%. WSade Phillips was the Rams DC in 2019. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/defensive-personnel-analysis-2019

[OneTwoSixFive]

27 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

The DL in a 3-4 is not responsible for pass rush. Hell we take 66% of them off the field in passing downs.

Sure it is. Those pushing in the middle of the line may not get the sack, but they stop the QB from stepping up to avoid those coming in from the sides.

[Packerraymond]

28 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Sure it is. Those pushing in the middle of the line may not get the sack, but they stop the QB from stepping up to avoid those coming in from the sides.

Yeah, one guy, Kenny Clark. You going to take Gary or the Smiths off the field for Dalvin Tomlinson and his 8 career sacks? You rush the passer with edge rushers. No need to go 5-6 deep on the DL. 4 is more than enough.

[Packerraymond]

43 minutes ago, Brat&Beer said:

I wonder if Barry has a different philosophy on how much dime a defense should play. In 2019 Packers led the NFL playing dime 51% of the time. Rams were 2nd at 42%. WSade Phillips was the Rams DC in 2019. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2020/defensive-personnel-analysis-2019

If it's not dime, it's nickel. Only difference is LBs and DBs, you don't play base with 3 DL unless they're in 21 or 12, which for offenses I'd say is less than 40% of snaps now.

[cannondale]

And here I was hoping nobody noticed Radunz. Seems like a Packer guy to me. Slotted all over the place right now. Walter has a 3-4 grade on him which seems low (but what do I know). 14th rated OT ??  Does he remind anyone else of a young Bak ? Gotta think he'd be a steal at the end of the 2nd by the time all is said and done.

To me, which means zero, he looked better than Leatherwood in drills. That guy looked sloppy and old in some of his reps. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by cannondale

[OneTwoSixFive]

3 hours ago, Packerraymond said:

Yeah, one guy, Kenny Clark. You going to take Gary or the Smiths off the field for Dalvin Tomlinson and his 8 career sacks? You rush the passer with edge rushers. No need to go 5-6 deep on the DL. 4 is more than enough.

If you read the mock, you will see the first round pick is Christian Barmore.

Clark, Barmore and, for example, Zadarius Smith, might generate some inside havoc. The improving Gary makes that work better, as he and Preston could come from the outside. Tomlinson obviously isn't a pass rusher, but he is someone who can sub in for Clark when he needs to take a few snaps rest........... and Clark has been playing too many snaps in a game to be at peak effectiveness.

You may think that a DL room of 4 is enough, but it would fill me with horror. I want at least five and six isn't a bad idea. DL need rotating to be at their best.

Edited February 12, 2021 by OneTwoSixFive

[squire12]

4 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

If you read the mock, you will see the first round pick is Christian Barmore.

Clark, Barmore and, for example, Zadarius Smith, might generate some inside havoc. The improving Gary makes that work better, as he and Preston could come from the outside. Tomlinson obviously isn't a pass rusher, but he is someone who can sub in for Clark when he needs to take a few snaps rest........... and Clark has been playing too many snaps in a game to be at peak effectiveness.

I think the question is signing Dalvin Tomlinson to what is likely going to be a big contract and then drafting Barmore.  That is a lot of resources to the IDL that on the 3rd down are probably only 1 on the field.