Thompson vs. Gutekunst

[Refugee]

6 hours ago, Mr Bad Example said:

But how many of his moves - draft OR FA - worked out? It was back to the 80s level of "if you can't stick in Green Bay, you can't play in the league." I think his FA signings weren't there to push us over the top, they were there to correct his draft screw-ups. Which is a bad strategy even if the FA signings DO work out. Most of the starting group was inherited from Wolf. 

I think Sherman had the old school approach that you need a stellar line to be the engine of a great offense.  He was not wrong that this is one approach, but in a salary cap reality, you'd better be finding some good ones in the draft to fill in for guys you can no longer afford.  He got cornered into paying some good but expensive veterans on the line that probably could have been replaced with some solid drafting and foresight a season or two before.  One of TT's first challenges was to get rid of those guys and still have a serviceable line.

Our current scheme and GM seems to be supportive of bringing up the youth  movement on the line.  Of course, as soon as we break that tendency and hand out a 3rd contract to our all world LT, he blows up his knee in practice.  How we handle the Oline this season, especially early on, is one of the biggest challenges for Gute, LaFluer and his staff.

Edited March 12, 2021 by Refugee

[SpeightTheVillain]

4 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/gnb/draft.htm

 

What do we consider a hit and miss as far as guys like Hunter Hillenmeyer or Chris Johnson, who played in 101, and 77 games respectively, but none of it was for the team that drafted them?  If we want to go for a TT example, we can pull Tyrone Culver and Dave Toleffson.  I just wondered what others think.  If we are making a baseball analogy, is it like a sac fly, or bunting to advance a runner?

 

 

I also wonder what we think about guys that start.  A lot of people railed on Will Whitticker back in 2005.  But he did start 14 games for us at RG.  Is that a hit or a miss? Someone has to play the position, and he did it.  He wasn't very good, but he did beat out bargain bin FAs Klemm and O'Dwyer (I think that was his name), so was that a miss, or a hit?

Yeah that is fair. I was mostly counting Hillenmeyer a miss because the Packers cut him immediately and he ended up having a nice career for himself. So there was a talent evaluation failure somewhere. I don't recall the LB situation at the time but I'm sure he could at least play specials. TT's guys are ridiculous because even if they did get cut, they were sticking somewhere. Hell the Montreal Allouettes, with Sherman as coach ironically, had like 5 ex TT players.

[ThatJerkDave]

26 minutes ago, SpeightTheVillain said:

Yeah that is fair. I was mostly counting Hillenmeyer a miss because the Packers cut him immediately and he ended up having a nice career for himself. So there was a talent evaluation failure somewhere. I don't recall the LB situation at the time but I'm sure he could at least play specials. TT's guys are ridiculous because even if they did get cut, they were sticking somewhere. Hell the Montreal Allouettes, with Sherman as coach ironically, had like 5 ex TT players.

I think the LBs at the time were Nick Barnett, Ni'al Diggs and I don't recall the other guy.  I was thinking Kenny Peterson, but he was a DT.  

 

TT was really, really good.

[ThatJerkDave]

40 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I think the LBs at the time were Nick Barnett, Ni'al Diggs and I don't recall the other guy.  I was thinking Kenny Peterson, but he was a DT.  

 

TT was really, really good.

It was bugging me, so I had to look up who our LBs were under Mike Sherman 

2000:  Na'il Diggs, Nate Wayne, Bernardo Harris

2001: Bernardo Harris, Nate Wayne, Na'il Diggs

2002: Nate Wayne, Hardy Nickerson, Na'il Diggs

2003:  Na'il Diggs, Nick Barnett, Hannibal Navies

2004:  Na'il Diggs, Nick Barnett, Hannibal Navies

2005: Paris Lennon, Nick Barnett, Rob Thomas, Brady Poppinga, Na'il Diggs (this was Barnett and a platoon)

 

 

[edit]  I did not know:  Paris Lenon started 128 games, and started 6 games for Denver as late as 2013.  Na'il Diggs was in the league for 11 years.

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by ThatJerkDave

[Mr Bad Example]

7 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

What do we consider a hit and miss as far as guys like Hunter Hillenmeyer or Chris Johnson, who played in 101, and 77 games respectively, but none of it was for the team that drafted them?  If we want to go for a TT example, we can pull Tyrone Culver and Dave Toleffson.  I just wondered what others think.  If we are making a baseball analogy, is it like a sac fly, or bunting to advance a runner?

 

I also wonder what we think about guys that start.  A lot of people railed on Will Whitticker back in 2005.  But he did start 14 games for us at RG.  Is that a hit or a miss? Someone has to play the position, and he did it.  He wasn't very good, but he did beat out bargain bin FAs Klemm and O'Dwyer (I think that was his name), so was that a miss, or a hit?

I feel like a Hillenmeyer or Johnson you can call a miss - you spent the draft capital on the player and they contributed NOTHING to your team. Terrell Buckley is a good example as far as Wolf goes - he had a really nice career when all was said and done, but his contribution to Green Bay was just meh. That said, you can say that even if the pick was wasted, it wasn't "bad" in that it was used to pick a legit NFL player. 

 

As to players like Whitticker, I feel like it's pretty apparent that he was a miss....you want more from EVERY draft pick than just one-and-done. That's a poor use of draft capital. It's even more damning that every other team had significant film on Whitticker and said "nah." Even other OL disappointments like Tony Moll, Marshall Newhouse, Breno Giacomini, etc who didn't have much positive impact in GB kicked around and stuck in the league for a few years. 

 

I like to have a 3rd category for players like, say, Kenny Peterson above - as a "useful" player. I don't think Najeh is quite "hit" as he wasn't even a starter, but he was a legit NFL player who stuck around the league for a decent enough run with the team that picked him. He was "useful." 

[ThatJerkDave]

54 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

I feel like a Hillenmeyer or Johnson you can call a miss - you spent the draft capital on the player and they contributed NOTHING to your team. Terrell Buckley is a good example as far as Wolf goes - he had a really nice career when all was said and done, but his contribution to Green Bay was just meh. That said, you can say that even if the pick was wasted, it wasn't "bad" in that it was used to pick a legit NFL player. 

 

As to players like Whitticker, I feel like it's pretty apparent that he was a miss....you want more from EVERY draft pick than just one-and-done. That's a poor use of draft capital. It's even more damning that every other team had significant film on Whitticker and said "nah." Even other OL disappointments like Tony Moll, Marshall Newhouse, Breno Giacomini, etc who didn't have much positive impact in GB kicked around and stuck in the league for a few years. 

 

I like to have a 3rd category for players like, say, Kenny Peterson above - as a "useful" player. I don't think Najeh is quite "hit" as he wasn't even a starter, but he was a legit NFL player who stuck around the league for a decent enough run with the team that picked him. He was "useful." 

You know what? I was going to argue that Najeh was a hit.  He was a fourth round pick that we got a few good years out of.  BUT I looked up his stats.  He was about as productive as Ty Montgomery.  Najeh was not nearly as productive as I thought he was. 

 

I still feel that everyone is short selling Will Whitticker though.  The guy started a season for us.  If we take a look back at TT's 7th round contributors, Whitticker is close to the top.  He was a marginal player that was a victim to the changing from Sherman to McCarthy's run blocking scheme, which he didn't fit at all.  We also invested pretty heavy at the guard position in 2006, with Colledge (2nd), Spitz (3rd), and Moll (5th); Whitticker also played ahead of Junius Coston, a 2005 5th rounder.  We have to grade on a curve for all picks and investments.  Getting anything from a 7th, or vet minimum guy is probably a "hit."  At least in my book.  

 

What I am trying to say is put Whitticker in the Hall of Fame already!

 

[Mr Bad Example]

12 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I still feel that everyone is short selling Will Whitticker though.  The guy started a season for us.  If we take a look back at TT's 7th round contributors, Whitticker is close to the top.  He was a marginal player that was a victim to the changing from Sherman to McCarthy's run blocking scheme, which he didn't fit at all.  We also invested pretty heavy at the guard position in 2006, with Colledge (2nd), Spitz (3rd), and Moll (5th); Whitticker also played ahead of Junius Coston, a 2005 5th rounder.  We have to grade on a curve for all picks and investments.  Getting anything from a 7th, or vet minimum guy is probably a "hit."  At least in my book.  

What I am trying to say is put Whitticker in the Hall of Fame already!

 

OK I can see 2 arguments here: 

- getting 14 starts on your OL from a 7th round pick is great value, and the player was caught in a scheme change, so he was a hit for one season, and it wasn't his fault. 

 

- sure, he started 14 games, but that was out of desperation. The team didn't keep him around even when in DESPERATE need of OGs, and despite having 14 games of film, no other team put him in a game (he was rostered by Was and Miami but saw no game time; was injured in '07 training camp and released. Apparently he's doing well in real estate in Indiana!). I don't think you can call a 7th rounder a bust, but he had no long term value, so he definitely wasn't a "hit." 

 

I see the first argument, but it's tough to call a one year not-that-wondrous a "hit." 

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, SpeightTheVillain said:

Yeah that is fair. I was mostly counting Hillenmeyer a miss because the Packers cut him immediately and he ended up having a nice career for himself. So there was a talent evaluation failure somewhere. I don't recall the LB situation at the time but I'm sure he could at least play specials. TT's guys are ridiculous because even if they did get cut, they were sticking somewhere. Hell the Montreal Allouettes, with Sherman as coach ironically, had like 5 ex TT players.

If you're evaluating a player from whether or not they succeeded, that's a player evaluation question.  Did they miss-evaluate him or did they misuse him?

[CWood21]

13 hours ago, ThatJerkDave said:

I still feel that everyone is short selling Will Whitticker though.  The guy started a season for us.  If we take a look back at TT's 7th round contributors, Whitticker is close to the top.  He was a marginal player that was a victim to the changing from Sherman to McCarthy's run blocking scheme, which he didn't fit at all.  We also invested pretty heavy at the guard position in 2006, with Colledge (2nd), Spitz (3rd), and Moll (5th); Whitticker also played ahead of Junius Coston, a 2005 5th rounder.  We have to grade on a curve for all picks and investments.  Getting anything from a 7th, or vet minimum guy is probably a "hit."  At least in my book.  

How much of that was based on need?   I'd argue it was a hit.  Not a big hit, but a hit nonetheless.

[MantyWrestler]

6 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

If you're evaluating a player from whether or not they succeeded, that's a player evaluation question.  Did they miss-evaluate him or did they misuse him?

If they were cut isn’t that a bad evaluation?