The Trade Up Mock Draft

[Superman(DH23)]

50 minutes ago, soulman said:

FWIW news broke this week that Fields deals with epilepsy.  Although this doesn't appear to have ever prevented him from performing well and some feel it may be an adolescent condition he's outgrown it still adds a wild card concern about him for some teams.

But you're right.  SF holds the key to what happens in the QB sweepstakes.

It's not just SF, we assume its SF bc we think Lawrence and Wilson are Locks for 1 & 2.  But last week you have the football dedication stuff pop off on Lawrence and this week an article is published from anonymous scouts really questioning Wilson.  He did a lot of stuff off script at BYU and got away with making bad decisions bc of his arm talent.  Things he will probably not get away with at the pro level.  Some labeled him as highest bust potential.  I'm 99% certain that Lawrence is going to go #1 but you never know in the draft, there is always that 1% chance of them going Fields or Wilson.  NYJ I'm far less sold on it being Zach Wilson.  Wilson has much more arm talent than Darnold but is an equivalent decision maker.  Is that really the road they want to go down to kick off the new regime?  Not to mention he wasnt dreamed of as a first round pick prior to the odd year we had this year due to covid. I think the Jets take Wilson, but I have this weird itch telling me to look out at that pick.  Really, any of the QBs save for probably Lawrence may be there at 4.  And if I'm being honest, idk if I want the Bears to go down that road if its Wilson.  There are a lot of similarities to Mitch that make me uncomfortable with this staff.  Similar athlete, similar arm talent, Mitch was the better decision maker.  Both really only 1 year of good tape against lesser competition.  The only thing Ik for certain is that there are no circumstances I want Jones in the first round.

[soulman]

5 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

It's not just SF, we assume its SF bc we think Lawrence and Wilson are Locks for 1 & 2.  But last week you have the football dedication stuff pop off on Lawrence and this week an article is published from anonymous scouts really questioning Wilson.  He did a lot of stuff off script at BYU and got away with making bad decisions bc of his arm talent.  Things he will probably not get away with at the pro level.  Some labeled him as highest bust potential.  I'm 99% certain that Lawrence is going to go #1 but you never know in the draft, there is always that 1% chance of them going Fields or Wilson.  NYJ I'm far less sold on it being Zach Wilson.  Wilson has much more arm talent than Darnold but is an equivalent decision maker.  Is that really the road they want to go down to kick off the new regime?  Not to mention he wasnt dreamed of as a first round pick prior to the odd year we had this year due to covid. I think the Jets take Wilson, but I have this weird itch telling me to look out at that pick.  Really, any of the QBs save for probably Lawrence may be there at 4.  And if I'm being honest, idk if I want the Bears to go down that road if its Wilson.  There are a lot of similarities to Mitch that make me uncomfortable with this staff.  Similar athlete, similar arm talent, Mitch was the better decision maker.  Both really only 1 year of good tape against lesser competition.  The only thing Ik for certain is that there are no circumstances I want Jones in the first round.

Don't want Jones in one.  Not sure if you'd take Wilson either.  Lance has major question marks about his readiness for the NFL without further development and Fields has an epileptic condition and like Jones and Lawrence played for a college powerhouse.

You're not making this very easy ya' know.  😠😠 🤣 

There will always be risks in drafting any QB in the top five.  Mitch showed us that.

So do you roll the dice and take the risk or do you wait and draft one later in round one or early in round two?

Without having both the ability and the opportunity to have scouted these guys in depth no one here can answer that question when even those who have can get it wrong as often as they get it right.

This is Paces 7th draft.  If he can't make the right decisions by now he never will.

[Superman(DH23)]

47 minutes ago, soulman said:

Don't want Jones in one.  Not sure if you'd take Wilson either.  Lance has major question marks about his readiness for the NFL without further development and Fields has an epileptic condition and like Jones and Lawrence played for a college powerhouse.

You're not making this very easy ya' know.  😠😠 🤣 

There will always be risks in drafting any QB in the top five.  Mitch showed us that.

So do you roll the dice and take the risk or do you wait and draft one later in round one or early in round two?

Without having both the ability and the opportunity to have scouted these guys in depth no one here can answer that question when even those who have can get it wrong as often as they get it right.

This is Paces 7th draft.  If he can't make the right decisions by now he never will.

Well part of the process bc it takes so damn long from the end of the season to the draft is the paralysis of analysis.  Every player coming out has holes in their game.  Guys dont become pros until their pros.  In terms of my evaluation, bc of the risk involved, give me guys with elite tools.  If I got the right staff in place, they will reach their ceilings, if they dont I need to find new staff.  That's the crux of why I'm very anti Mac Jones.  Yeah he has a real good chance of hitting his ceiling regardless of development.  (Assuming what we hear about him is correct)  But what is that ceiling? Andy Dalton?  An above average QB who can get you to the playoffs with a good team, followed by an exit as soon as he faces a better QB?  I said in 2018 Josh Allen should go #1. I was right.  I wasnt right bc my evaluation was so much better than everyone else's.  It was clear to anyone with eyes how much more gifted Allen was than every other QB in that class.  I was right bc he went to a team that understood that their best chance of success was to make Allen the best player he could possibly be and work their systems, their personnel, their philosophies all towards achieving that goal.  Now they will be superbowl contenders for the next 10 years.  Then compare that to Mitch.  His first coach didnt believe in him, the 2nd coach comes in and does some good things with him, helps him be successful, only to completely abandon that and try to force Mitch to play the coach's way, rather than Mitch's.  That's not a recipe for long term success.  Thats why Mitch was all too happy to leave and took a backup job with a good coaching staff that he knew knew how to help him develop, rather than take a job with a better chance to start, but a more questionable offensive staff, who all may be gone in a year.  Yeah, I think MT should have taken the Denver offer, but MT had to make what he thought was the right decision for his career.  But I digress, yes, give me the guy with the elite tools and I'll figure the rest out later.

[WindyCity]

25 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Well part of the process bc it takes so damn long from the end of the season to the draft is the paralysis of analysis.  Every player coming out has holes in their game.  Guys dont become pros until their pros.  In terms of my evaluation, bc of the risk involved, give me guys with elite tools.  If I got the right staff in place, they will reach their ceilings, if they dont I need to find new staff.  That's the crux of why I'm very anti Mac Jones.  Yeah he has a real good chance of hitting his ceiling regardless of development.  (Assuming what we hear about him is correct)  But what is that ceiling? Andy Dalton?  An above average QB who can get you to the playoffs with a good team, followed by an exit as soon as he faces a better QB?  I said in 2018 Josh Allen should go #1. I was right.  I wasnt right bc my evaluation was so much better than everyone else's.  It was clear to anyone with eyes how much more gifted Allen was than every other QB in that class.  I was right bc he went to a team that understood that their best chance of success was to make Allen the best player he could possibly be and work their systems, their personnel, their philosophies all towards achieving that goal.  Now they will be superbowl contenders for the next 10 years.  Then compare that to Mitch.  His first coach didnt believe in him, the 2nd coach comes in and does some good things with him, helps him be successful, only to completely abandon that and try to force Mitch to play the coach's way, rather than Mitch's.  That's not a recipe for long term success.  Thats why Mitch was all too happy to leave and took a backup job with a good coaching staff that he knew knew how to help him develop, rather than take a job with a better chance to start, but a more questionable offensive staff, who all may be gone in a year.  Yeah, I think MT should have taken the Denver offer, but MT had to make what he thought was the right decision for his career.  But I digress, yes, give me the guy with the elite tools and I'll figure the rest out later.

According to Ben Allbright, who is super plugged in with the Broncos, they did not offer Mitch a contract.

I agree with most of what you said. I also think that Mitch just isn't good and Allen is. It just took Allen some time to round out the rough edges.

[Superman(DH23)]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

According to Ben Allbright, who is super plugged in with the Broncos, they did not offer Mitch a contract.

I agree with most of what you said. I also think that Mitch just isn't good and Allen is. It just took Allen some time to round out the rough edges.

Offering a contract is very specific, that would involve negotiations and both sides being mutually interested.  There were multiple reports from respected reporters saying the Broncos wanted Mitch, Mitch wanted to go to the Bills and be coached.  Broncos wanting Mitch makes a ton of sense as they a)either need a back up plan for Lock or b) need a bridge to the rookie.  The HC and team president need to win NOW much like the Bears.  

[WindyCity]

7 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Offering a contract is very specific, that would involve negotiations and both sides being mutually interested.  There were multiple reports from respected reporters saying the Broncos wanted Mitch, Mitch wanted to go to the Bills and be coached.  Broncos wanting Mitch makes a ton of sense as they a)either need a back up plan for Lock or b) need a bridge to the rookie.  The HC and team president need to win NOW much like the Bears.  

https://twitter.com/AllbrightNFL/status/1376994531690704897?s=20

[WindyCity]

 

 

 

Benjamin Allbright

 

@AllbrightNFL

·

Mar 30

 

 

Replying to

@MickR2

They weren't interested in Trubisky, and Smith is not something they want really either. They're going to finish looking at the draft QBs, and have their eye on Darnold/Foles/Minshew/Bridgewater.

[WindyCity]

The league pretty definitively thinks Mitch sucks.

[Superman(DH23)]

36 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

The league pretty definitively thinks Mitch sucks.

Again there were multiple reports otherwise, and if they think Mitch sucks, they must think Nagy is a great OC.  

[WindyCity]

5 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Again there were multiple reports otherwise, and if they think Mitch sucks, they must think Nagy is a great OC.  

I think the league holds Nagy in a much higher position than Mitch.

[Sugashane]

12 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

The 5th year option is now fully guaranteed and the value is a stones throw away from the franchise tag.  And you have to make the decision before the start of the 4th year.  Honestly, that juice isnt worth the squeeze imo.

Ah. Well that makes a huge difference, I didn't realize that changed. Not nearly as enticing to move up now then.

Appreciate the info.

[Epyon]

On 4/21/2021 at 1:08 PM, soulman said:

What if SF takes Fields?  Are you then trading up to #4 overall for Mac Jones?  Recent rumors have SF now more focused on Fields?

I would trade up..... but I'm much higher on Mac Jones than most of this board I think.....

I think we look to trade up to 6, and go for whoever is there of Fields/Jones  (on the presumption that ATL stays at 4 and takes Pitts, then Cinci goes Sewell at 5 so Burrow doesn't die back there.

If ATL trades down and 1,2,3,4 takes out the top 4 QBs, I could see a desperation move up to like 10ish for Lance....

[AZBearsFan]

14 hours ago, dll2000 said:

But you don’t have pick 4.   You have to buy it and it will cost you several future blue chip players.  

It’ll cost you highly drafted players. It’ll only cost you blue chip prospects if you regress after the move.

Say we trade our #1 picks 2021-2023 and this year’s 3 to ATL to take Fields. We’re essentially losing out on 3 players (since Fields fills the role of 2021 1st in this scenario). If we either improve or tread water after the move and have 8-9 win seasons or better in 2021 and 2022 we’re surrendering the 20th or later pick in 2022 and 2023. How many premium positions blue chip prospects are available 20+ every year? In that range you’re seeing what we are seeing this year at 20 if we don’t trade - the 3rd and 4th best prospects at premium positions. That’s good-not-great prospects. That’s not “blue chip” to me. What you’re giving up to move to 4 for what you’re expecting to be a 10+ year fixture at QB is something like:

2021 Teven Jenkins and D’Wayne Eskridge level prospects 

2022 Greg Newsome level prospect 

2023 Christian Barmore level prospect

It’s a lot, but it’s not a pile of blue chip players, and frankly, as long as you get the QB position right with the trade there isn’t a GM in football that wouldn’t make that deal. You’re going to have to reprioritize how you draft at the top of your draft for the next 2 years but that’s FINE - it probably means no frivolous reach picks early. It means instead of drafting CB3 at 20 were drafting CB6-7 at 55 and so on. If you get QB right the cost is almost never going to be too high. 

[AZBearsFan]

58 minutes ago, Epyon said:

I would trade up..... but I'm much higher on Mac Jones than most of this board I think.....

I think we look to trade up to 6, and go for whoever is there of Fields/Jones  (on the presumption that ATL stays at 4 and takes Pitts, then Cinci goes Sewell at 5 so Burrow doesn't die back there.

If ATL trades down and 1,2,3,4 takes out the top 4 QBs, I could see a desperation move up to like 10ish for Lance....

I’m super high on Jones as well. He’s actually my QB3 (I have them Lawrence/Fields/Jones/Lance/Wilson). I think Jones comps really well with Matt Ryan. 

[soulman]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’m super high on Jones as well. He’s actually my QB3 (I have them Lawrence/Fields/Jones/Lance/Wilson). I think Jones comps really well with Matt Ryan. 

No doubt there are prospects to be had but can Pace manage to pull off a trade to get one of them.

Since I believe SF will draft Fields that leaves Jones and Lance.  Of the two Jones seems to be a fit for the type of QB Nagy values.  That's not to say Lance won't fit but in his case I believe we're looking at a much longer path to his achieving his "upside" and potentially watching another attempt by Nagy to get his QB to play his way.

In all honesty Lawrence may be the only true top 5 QB in this draft and in other years guys like Lance and Jones may not even be top ten but enough teams have seen the success Mahomes, Watson, and Allen have had to put them in "QB heat" looking for one of that type of their own.  It's gonna be a tough road and an expensive one to find a team to trade up with.