2022 DRAFT THREAD - QB’s Wanted

[e16bball]

58 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

I'll go ahead and say, Pickett's hand size does very little to move the needle for me as far as hurting his value. If he was the best at everything else for this class, and his hand is the biggest red flag, then pull the trigger. I guess I could trade off the risk of increase in them for someone who might be successful. Daniel Jones has a fumbling problem and he's at 9 3/4".

As far as the age thing, what is the big concern there? That he's peaked or is peaking sooner? He's 24. If we got 10 great years out of him (and he was 34) that would be a great miracle for this team. 

I guess one of the other major age concerns is moreso by way of comparison to his competition. If we assume that (at least until your athletic peak) players continue to get better and better over time, then being a 24-year-old who beats up on 21/22-year-olds is not as impressive as a 19/20-year-old doing the same thing.

Also, traditionally you find more stars among the juniors in the draft pool. It’s basically a selection bias type thing — you typically only declare early if you have both the requisite NFL athletic profile and a meaningful track record of success (accumulated in only 3 years). Otherwise, you’d be much more likely opt to return to college to continue to refine your game and grow physically, in order to enhance your draft prospects for next year.

Obviously, your other point is probably the biggest key. Being closer to his eventual peak suggests that he has less room to grow/improve than younger players. Less projection, because he has had more time to be coached at a high level and grow physically/mentally.

All things equal, I’d much prefer a younger player. But it’s worked out okay with guys like Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, etc. 

[MikeT14]

5 minutes ago, e16bball said:

I guess one of the other major age concerns is moreso by way of comparison to his competition. If we assume that (at least until your athletic peak) players continue to get better and better over time, then being a 24-year-old who beats up on 21/22-year-olds is not as impressive as a 19/20-year-old doing the same thing.

Also, traditionally you find more stars among the juniors in the draft pool. It’s basically a selection bias type thing — you typically only declare early if you have both the requisite NFL athletic profile and a meaningful track record of success (accumulated in only 3 years). Otherwise, you’d be much more likely opt to return to college to continue to refine your game and grow physically, in order to enhance your draft prospects for next year.

Obviously, your other point is probably the biggest key. Being closer to his eventual peak suggests that he has less room to grow/improve than younger players. Less projection, because he has had more time to be coached at a high level and grow physically/mentally.

All things equal, I’d much prefer a younger player. But it’s worked out okay with guys like Joe Burrow, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, etc. 

Neither you nor lavar are wrong in your points. They're good points. Mine is just... if Pickett is the guy - if he's the best of all of them - then he's the pick over the younger guy with big hands. That's all. I don't know if he's the guy for me, but I certainly would prefer him over some of these others. 

[e16bball]

31 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

Apparently someone has video of Malik giving something to a homeless person which was pretty cool.  I actually really do hope he’s the one for some reason I just think it’s a really good spot with Terry and Gibson. 

 

Seeing this was actually very moving to me. I don’t know if he’s the right football player for us, but I’m pretty much sold on his character at this point.

[RSkinGM]

9 minutes ago, e16bball said:

 

Seeing this was actually very moving to me. I don’t know if he’s the right football player for us, but I’m pretty much sold on his character at this point.

Not trying to pixx on the parade ,,,but looks like he gave him a newspaper. ...or an autographed picture maybe !?

[e16bball]

2 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

Neither you nor lavar are wrong in your points. They're good points. Mine is just... if Pickett is the guy - if he's the best of all of them - then he's the pick over the younger guy with big hands. That's all. I don't know if he's the guy for me, but I certainly would prefer him over some of these others. 

I agree.

I think Pickett is the best player out of all of them. I don’t know that I’m convinced he’ll still be the best player in 5 years — but in terms of what he can do right now, and the traits that I think lend themselves to being able to transition quickly as a true quarterback (not just an athlete who can survive playing QB), I think he’s streets ahead. 

I have very little doubt that he’s the safest bet. When you watch him from this past season, it almost looks like he's playing a totally different position than these other guys. And he kind of was, I guess. What they were asking him to do was well beyond what these other guys were doing, in terms of the complexity and the amount of data they were asking him to sort through. When you add in that he’s been considered almost unanimously the best among this group in terms of interviews, personality, etc., that makes it awfully difficult to feel like anyone else checks the most critical boxes better. 

In terms of upside? Yeah, definitely not tops. Maybe 5th, actually, in terms of overall ceiling. The lack of the big arm is a big limitation in terms of your ability to do the kinds of things that Mahomes and Allen and Herbert are out here doing. But in terms of likelihood to hit his “reasonable” ceiling, which I think is probably legitimately a top 10-14 guy? That’s where he has to shoot up the board. 

For me, it’s him and Willis. Then Corral and Howell, with Ridder lurking if he proves to be a better pure athlete than I’m currently predicting.

Edited March 3, 2022 by e16bball

[e16bball]

A lot of really fast times being ripped off so far. 

A lot of folks know that I feel very strongly about 40 time being a major indicator on TEs and their upside. When you have a guy with TE size and WR speed, that’s a dangerous guy if you can teach him how to play the position. 

Two interesting local guys in Chigoziem Okonkwo from MD (4.52) and Jelani Woods from UVA (4.61) posted very nice times. Woods stood out to me when I was struggling through watching Brennan Armstrong (not that he’s bad, he’s just ugly to watch), and he checks another box by being a former QB. The mental connection between QBs and their safety blankets (TEs and slot guys) is crucial, and I think it’s why you so often see QBs translate effectively to those positions.

[ARTMONK HOF]

52 minutes ago, e16bball said:

A lot of really fast times being ripped off so far. 

A lot of folks know that I feel very strongly about 40 time being a major indicator on TEs and their upside. When you have a guy with TE size and WR speed, that’s a dangerous guy if you can teach him how to play the position. 

Two interesting local guys in Chigoziem Okonkwo from MD (4.52) and Jelani Woods from UVA (4.61) posted very nice times. Woods stood out to me when I was struggling through watching Brennan Armstrong (not that he’s bad, he’s just ugly to watch), and he checks another box by being a former QB. The mental connection between QBs and their safety blankets (TEs and slot guys) is crucial, and I think it’s why you so often see QBs translate effectively to those positions.

Jelani Woods looked good at the East/West Shrine Game

[lavar703]

6 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

I'll go ahead and say, Pickett's hand size does very little to move the needle for me as far as hurting his value. If he was the best at everything else for this class, and his hand is the biggest red flag, then pull the trigger. I guess I could trade off the risk of increase in them for someone who might be successful. Daniel Jones has a fumbling problem and he's at 9 3/4".

As far as the age thing, what is the big concern there? That he's peaked or is peaking sooner? He's 24. If we got 10 great years out of him (and he was 34) that would be a great miracle for this team. 

Basically he’d be the only successful QB in modern football with hands that small unless I read that on twitter incorrectly. There is a correlation. His age just adds to it. 
 

Also, he’s apparently fumbled 29 times in college. That’s a considerable amount. 

Edited March 4, 2022 by lavar703

[MikeT14]

1 hour ago, lavar703 said:

Basically he’d be the only successful QB in modern football with hands that small unless I read that on twitter incorrectly. There is a correlation. His age just adds to it. 
 

Also, he’s apparently fumbled 29 times in college. That’s a considerable amount. 

Michael Vick. But it’s only been 9 guys. 

[turtle28]

6 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

Neither you nor lavar are wrong in your points. They're good points. Mine is just... if Pickett is the guy - if he's the best of all of them - then he's the pick over the younger guy with big hands. That's all. I don't know if he's the guy for me, but I certainly would prefer him over some of these others. 

 

On Kevin Sheehan’s show a few weeks ago someone - I think a guy he had on the show like a draft analyst or reporter - compared Kenny Pickett to Derek Carr and I thought that was the perfect comp. Pickett plays a lot like Burrow also but I don’t know if he’s quite on that elite level or if he’ll ever be elite, but I think Pickett will develop into that next tier of QBs in the NFL, those we argue about which one is better from the 6 to 15 rage or so. You know, the good but not great range. Like the Matt Ryan, Derek Carr & Kirk Cousins types.

Edited March 4, 2022 by turtle28

[lavar703]

6 minutes ago, MikeT14 said:

Michael Vick. But it’s only been 9 guys. 

I could live with the selection. I want a QB and I want a young QB. If they take Pickett I’ll be excited I’ll just be worried. 

[turtle28]

6 hours ago, RSkinGM said:

Not trying to pixx on the parade ,,,but looks like he gave him a newspaper. ...or an autographed picture maybe !?

He gave him something out of his bag, hard to say what it was exactly. The fact that he took the time to just talk to a homeless person when most people ignore them is a big deal to me. I like Willis, he seems like a great guy, he’s very very mature. He’s got a lot of natural/raw talent, clearly the most untapped potential of any of the QBs in this draft. It just gives me pause with this franchise drafting raw players who aren’t close to being finished products who need a lot of work before they can even be a starter bc it just rarely seems to work for us - if ever.

Jamin Davis last year was just another example of in this teams history over the last 30 years. I sure hope Jamin make a big jump in year two bc he’ll know the D, be playing OLB instead of MLB and he’ll know what he needs to do on the field but he’s still a major concern/question mark going into his 2nd year.

[turtle28]

27 minutes ago, lavar703 said:

I could live with the selection. I want a QB and I want a young QB. If they take Pickett I’ll be excited I’ll just be worried. 

The gloves these players wear make such a huge difference nowadays. I forget who JP Finlay told this, but a person JP was taking to said that bc Pickett wears WR gloves his hand size is not a big issue as it would’ve been in the past. I think it was a scout or GM who told him that at the combine the other day.

These gloves nowadays basically are like having stik’em on your hands in the 60s, 70s & 80s. Pickett wears gloves on both hands to get a good grip on the ball, he played in Pittsburgh where the weather is nasty most of the football season. 
 

His hand size is definitely a thing, but I think the WR gloves he wears makes that less of a thing than people realize.

Edited March 4, 2022 by turtle28

[MikeT14]

8 hours ago, lavar703 said:

I could live with the selection. I want a QB and I want a young QB. If they take Pickett I’ll be excited I’ll just be worried. 

I think that is how I will feel

[ripsean21]

I wouldn’t draft Pickett simply for what I’m pretty sure I don’t think he can reach. I really do think I like Howell, Ridder, and Willis a lot more then Pickett. I’d gamble on Malik the person and player with my pick.