Fantasy Football 2021

[sammymvpknight]

2 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Speaking of underrated RBs. Chris Carson?

His ADP was around 30 a week ago and now is 48? What happened? Did I miss something with him? I feel like as a RB2 drafted in the 4th in any format that would be a solid pick

Since were all friends...I’m going into drafts looking at Gibson, Carson, and Robinson as my RB trio. Maybe throw in Jamaal Williams as my fourth. Barring injury everyone will outplay ADP. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 minute ago, sammymvpknight said:

Since were all friends...I’m going into drafts looking at Gibson, Carson, and Robinson as my RB trio. Maybe throw in Jamaal Williams as my fourth. Barring injury everyone will outplay ADP. 

Where are you drafting them though? So in that trio, *picking 9th* I would get Gibson at 16(albeit unlikely to fall) Carson late round 3 and JRob early 4th although JRobs ADP is higher than Carson. Would like that trio very much

Also I love Jamaal Williams because I just cant with Deandre Swift, too many injuries and Williams is still super cheap

[sammymvpknight]

15 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Where are you drafting them though? So in that trio, *picking 9th* I would get Gibson at 16(albeit unlikely to fall) Carson late round 3 and JRob early 4th although JRobs ADP is higher than Carson. Would like that trio very much

Also I love Jamaal Williams because I just cant with Deandre Swift, too many injuries and Williams is still super cheap

It depends on who’s there at #9. Gibson may be worth it, but the value isn’t as good of course. Carson and JRob in the 3rd-4th would be nice. If you wanted to go zero RB and go with Carson and JRob that wouldn’t be the worst strategy in the world. You could prehaps get a couple elite TEs/WRs in the first few rounds. 

[NcFinest9erFan]

2 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

Since were all friends...I’m going into drafts looking at Gibson, Carson, and Robinson as my RB trio. Maybe throw in Jamaal Williams as my fourth. Barring injury everyone will outplay ADP. 

I think if I can get one of those three as my RB1 I'd be ok. Def love me some Jamaal Williams. I'm starting to like Edmonds more. Def. want to grab a Damien Harris as well. Pending on how my team is setup, I wouldn't mind Kareem Hunt as my RB2. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

14 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

2 late round even conditional picks seems crazy, I know he isnt that good and kind of injury prone but id be curious what that does to Darrel Hendersons value if Sony plays the Malcolm Brown role of being very annoying

I dropped Michael Carter for Michel this morning. Like you said I just feel like there's something significant about giving up 2 draft picks here. The message as I see it is that they really do not trust or rate Henderson, and/or that McVay really likes Michel. Michel's about as good a lotto ticket as you can ask for when the upside is literally just him being the RB1 for a juggernaut offense, if he takes his chance and is just more Cam Akers rather than Malcolm Brown, which if not plausible is at least possible if he stays healthy. 

Given the amount of hype random 5th round rookies in RB rotations get this time of year I'm actually surprised at how little buzz this trade is getting - Michel is basically zero risk and all upside in my eyes. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[JaguarCrazy2832]

6 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I dropped Michael Carter for Michel this morning. Like you said I just feel like there's something significant about giving up 2 draft picks here. The message as I see it is that they really do not trust or rate Henderson, and/or that McVay really likes Michel. Michel's about as good a lotto ticket as you can ask for when the upside is literally just him being the RB1 for a juggernaut offense, if he takes his chance and is just more Cam Akers rather than Malcolm Brown, which if not plausible is at least possible if he stays healthy. 

Given the amount of hype random 5th round rookies in RB rotations get this time of year I'm actually surprised at how little buzz this trade is getting - Michel is basically zero risk and all upside in my eyes. 

His level of risk depends on when you're making that investment. I dont see his upside being THAT high but its something. idk what his ADP is currently, but at the very least Darrell Henderson cant be drafted in the first 4-5 rounds. Michel has his own injury problems so I'm not going to just forget about those and draft him in round 5

[SalvadorsDeli]

59 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

His level of risk depends on when you're making that investment. I dont see his upside being THAT high but its something. idk what his ADP is currently, but at the very least Darrell Henderson cant be drafted in the first 4-5 rounds. Michel has his own injury problems so I'm not going to just forget about those and draft him in round 5

Yeah I guess I should note that I'm speaking from the perspective of someone who has already drafted - Michel is most likely available in any league for free where that's the case, and that's where I think it's a punt worth taking given the potential reward. If I was still to draft I don't know that I'd be willing to invest more than a late round draft pick in him, and I'd be more fading Henderson than pounding the table for Michel. 

[Sllim Pickens]

9 hours ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I dropped Michael Carter for Michel this morning. Like you said I just feel like there's something significant about giving up 2 draft picks here. The message as I see it is that they really do not trust or rate Henderson, and/or that McVay really likes Michel. Michel's about as good a lotto ticket as you can ask for when the upside is literally just him being the RB1 for a juggernaut offense, if he takes his chance and is just more Cam Akers rather than Malcolm Brown, which if not plausible is at least possible if he stays healthy. 

Given the amount of hype random 5th round rookies in RB rotations get this time of year I'm actually surprised at how little buzz this trade is getting - Michel is basically zero risk and all upside in my eyes. 

I feel Carter has more upside this year than Michel.  I think that Michel might put up similar points across the season but Carter will take over midway through the year and have a big finish like Swift did last year.  If its deep on my bench, I'd much rather have Carter still. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

Yeah I guess I should note that I'm speaking from the perspective of someone who has already drafted - Michel is most likely available in any league for free where that's the case, and that's where I think it's a punt worth taking given the potential reward. If I was still to draft I don't know that I'd be willing to invest more than a late round draft pick in him, and I'd be more fading Henderson than pounding the table for Michel. 

I agree with Sllim that i like Carter alot more because i dont think Henderson just goes away and Michel has his own injury concerns. With that said if he is a FA now definitely worth a stash but not sure id be drafting him round 9-10 where high value backups like Dillon-Carter are going

[SalvadorsDeli]

2 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I feel Carter has more upside this year than Michel.  I think that Michel might put up similar points across the season but Carter will take over midway through the year and have a big finish like Swift did last year.  If its deep on my bench, I'd much rather have Carter still. 

I agree that Carter has a lot of upside but I think there's somewhat of a bias towards the shiny new player that happens in these discussions specifically when we're talking about players' ceilings. Michel is old news, Carter is not, so one player gets evaluated through his best case scenario and one gets evaluated through his worst. And to the extent fantasy is about identifying value where others don't, I think there may be some benefit in taking advantage of people's biases towards the unknown by taking a punt on some of the more 'boring' options.

Everyone wants to be the one who picks up the next James Robinson or rookie Kamara so we tend to imagine the barriers these rookie RB's to have success to be lower than it is for an older more boring name - Carter wins his own crowded backfield but Henderson remains a barrier for Michel, for example, in this conversation about whose ceiling is what. Henderson is himself a sort of new shiny thing so we're instead talking about Michel as the guy in his way when it might just be the opposite. 

Obviously in a dynasty league the calculations would be different but in a redraft league there's cost in basically punting half your season for a bench stash in the first place and then hoping things break right for him afterwards. Certainly won't be surprised if Carter does end up a star, but by the same token Michel wouldn't be the first player who puts it together after a change of scenery. Would I bet on Michel owning that backfield? Definitely not. Either way we're talking about best-case scenarios, not likely ones. But I think it's a worthwhile gamble, at least as good a gamble as hoping some random 4th round rookie RB on a bad team and in a committee turns out to be a star. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[JaguarCrazy2832]

There probably is some bias baked in there because Carter is the new guy whereas Michel has been around a few years and quite possibly has burned some people who invested in him in prior drafts but with that said, if there was ever a position where the shiny new toy would be more desirable in similar situations as probably a 2nd on their team its RB. The younger guys are almost always a better investment than their similar ADP-d counterparts just because of wear and tear and in this particular instance Michel has already had some wear

[Sllim Pickens]

41 minutes ago, SalvadorsDeli said:

I agree that Carter has a lot of upside but I think there's somewhat of a bias towards the shiny new player that happens in these discussions specifically when we're talking about players' ceilings. Michel is old news, Carter is not, so one player gets evaluated through his best case scenario and one gets evaluated through his worst. And to the extent fantasy is about identifying value where others don't, I think there may be some benefit in taking advantage of people's biases towards the unknown by taking a punt on some of the more 'boring' options.

Everyone wants to be the one who picks up the next James Robinson or rookie Kamara so we tend to imagine the barriers these rookie RB's to have success to be lower than it is for an older more boring name - Carter wins his own crowded backfield but Henderson remains a barrier for Michel, for example, in this conversation about whose ceiling is what. Henderson is himself a sort of new shiny thing so we're instead talking about Michel as the guy in his way when it might just be the opposite. 

Obviously in a dynasty league the calculations would be different but in a redraft league there's cost in basically punting half your season for a bench stash in the first place and then hoping things break right for him afterwards. Certainly won't be surprised if Carter does end up a star, but by the same token Michel wouldn't be the first player who puts it together after a change of scenery. Would I bet on Michel owning that backfield? Definitely not. Either way we're talking about best-case scenarios, not likely ones. But I think it's a worthwhile gamble, at least as good a gamble as hoping some random 4th round rookie RB on a bad team and in a committee turns out to be a star. 

You mention wanting the next Kamara or Robinson, but when was the last time a 3 year bust went somewhere else and played well enough to be fantasy relevant?  Leonard Fournette is about the closest thing there is but even he isn't really start worthy unless you're in a huge league.  Instead you get more Carlos Hyde's, Levion Bell's, Ameer Abdullah's, and Kerryon Johnsons.  The odds of having a rookie supplant a very average RB ahead of him like Tevin Coleman is much greater than a 3 year bust supplanting a more solid and younger RB like Henderson.  Especially coming over this late in the process.  

As for wasting away on your bench in redraft leagues, what would Michel be doing any different?  You aren't going to start him until bye weeks and even then, you likely won't because you hopefully have 1 or 2 other options that will help you through the bye week ahead of him.  y the time he acclimates himself, and has any touches to make him even flex playable, you are halfway through the season, in which it is more likely that Carter supplants Coleman.  There is a good chance neither player does anything, and at that point its a wash, but if you are playing upside, potential, and ability to help your team in the playoffs, I am betting on Carter way before looking Michel's way. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

14 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

You mention wanting the next Kamara or Robinson, but when was the last time a 3 year bust went somewhere else and played well enough to be fantasy relevant?  Leonard Fournette is about the closest thing there is but even he isn't really start worthy unless you're in a huge league.  Instead you get more Carlos Hyde's, Levion Bell's, Ameer Abdullah's, and Kerryon Johnsons.  The odds of having a rookie supplant a very average RB ahead of him like Tevin Coleman is much greater than a 3 year bust supplanting a more solid and younger RB like Henderson.  Especially coming over this late in the process.  

I think the comparison here would be CJ Anderson who was signed off the street and won a lot of people their leagues a couple of years back in McVay's offense. Or even Mike Davis last year - slightly different situation obviously but there wasn't really that much excitement about him after CMC's injury and then he plodded his way to fantasy relevancy. Or Damian Williams after Hunt's suspension, that's another journeyman who burst out by nature of just being the last back standing in a good offense. 

For me it's never a bad idea to buy shares in a good offense. Beating out Darrel Henderson for touches isn't some insurmountable hurdle when we already know enough to know that he couldn't seize the starting job last year even when it was just a direct competition with Malcolm Brown early on, and that he's already banged up this year. He's almost as injury prone as Michel is so to that extent if you have one or the other there's really not that much standing in the way of having a monopoly of the backfield. The fact that they traded for Michel in the first place suggests a level of proactive interest/investment on the part of the Rams when they could have just signed a body off the street (and if they do end up also signing someone like Gurley that would certainly change my calculus) - but to each their own. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli

[Sllim Pickens]

Just now, SalvadorsDeli said:

I think the comparison here would be CJ Anderson who was signed off the street and won a lot of people their leagues a couple of years back in McVay's offense. Or even Mike Davis last year - slightly different situation obviously but there wasn't really that much excitement about him after CMC's injury and then he plodded his way to fantasy relevancy. Or Damian Williams after Hunt's suspension, that's another journeyman who burst out by nature of just being the last back standing in a good offense. 

For me it's never a bad idea to buy shares in a good offense. Beating out Darrel Henderson for touches isn't some insurmountable hurdle when we already know enough to know that he couldn't seize the starting job last year even when it was just a direct competition with Malcolm Brown early on, and that he's already banged up this year. The fact that they traded for Michel in the first place suggests a level of proactive interest/investment on the part of the Rams when they could have just signed a body off the street (and if they do end up also signing someone like Gurley that would certainly change my calculus) - but to each their own. 

So you are just expecting Henderson to get hurt then?  If comparing him to those situations, that would be the thought correct?  I think Darrell Henderson is that type of guy you are talking, not Michel.  Akers got hurt, Henderson who was an afterthought this year gains value.  Obviously starters are more valuable, but when looking at them side by side, without considering injures (albeit you could expect Coleman to get injured since he always does too), who has the better chance at production?  I think the answer is easily Carter. 

Side note, Stafford has never played well with RBs.  Maybe some of that is on the coordinators but he went through a lot of OCs and RBs and none really were consistent behind him.  Maybe McVay changes that, but I don't see them being a run heavy team ike the NYJ are likely going to be with a rookie QB and a new OC from a run heavy system. 

[SalvadorsDeli]

7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

So you are just expecting Henderson to get hurt then?  If comparing him to those situations, that would be the thought correct?  I think Darrell Henderson is that type of guy you are talking, not Michel.  Akers got hurt, Henderson who was an afterthought this year gains value.  Obviously starters are more valuable, but when looking at them side by side, without considering injures (albeit you could expect Coleman to get injured since he always does too), who has the better chance at production?  I think the answer is easily Carter. 

I'm not 'expecting' anything, though it's worth noting that Henderson is literally already hurt. But I'm looking at a situation where a team just gave up assets for a player who has what actually looks like a pretty viable path towards a good workload in a good offense. That's really it. Henderson is being talked up as some established asset when the reality is that RB room is wide open, and if I can get in on the ground floor for cheap I'm gonna take that ride. This is the time of year when every rookie RB is obviously poised for a breakout so I get the excitement with Carter but it's just weird how quickly these narratives take hold where someone all of a sudden becomes so much more of a sure thing than he really is. 

Edited August 26, 2021 by SalvadorsDeli